CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE

and Public Opinion

Public Protest on Health Care

Obama on Health Care

Political Messages Fuel the Debate

The Tea Party Influence

Doctors Weigh In

Signing the Reform Bill

What is Public Opinion?

• Citizens’ opinions about politics and government actions

• Why does public opinion matter?– Explains the behavior of citizens and public

officials– Motivates both citizens and public officials– Helps explain policy outcomes

Early Theories of Public Opinion

– Original studies showed individual opinions as inconsistent, non-ideological, and uninformed.

– Some modern studies still confirm many of these initial findings.

The New Theory of Public Opinion

• 3 Criticisms of Early Studies1. It isn’t surprising that many people don’t think

much about politics.

2. Opinions have been more consistent since the original studies in the 1950s.

3. Most importantly, the original studies were looking for the wrong thing.

What Is Public Opinion?

• Some opinions are formed early and remain stable throughout a lifetime

• Others are more fluid and vary with events (latent opinions)

What Is Public Opinion?

Surveying Political Principles

Liberal–Conservative Ideology in America

Approval Ratings for President Barack Obama, 2009–2010

Fears of Terrorist Attack

Where Do Opinions Come From?

• Political Socialization: A process whereby political opinions are shaped by one’s parents, family, community, and culture

• Events

• Group Identity

• Political Realignment

Where Do Opinions Come From?

Where Do Opinions Come From?

Politicians and Public Opinion

Sampling Error in Mass Surveys

Measuring Public Opinion

• Problems Measuring Public Opinion– Face-to-face interviewing is best, but it is

difficult to generate a random sample.– Random digit dialing is useful, but the inability

to call cell phone numbers may be a problem.– Robo-polls face criticism and doubts about

sample selection.

The Impact of Question Wording: Attitudes on Abortion

The Impact of Question Wording: Attitudes on Abortion

Measuring Public Opinion

• The Accuracy of Public Opinion– Some of the claims that the public are

exceptionally ill-informed assume that people take surveys very seriously when, in fact, they may not.

– The more relevant the survey question is to one’s everyday life, the more seriously the respondent tends to treat the question.

Measuring Public Opinion

• Survey results are most believable when:– The many problems with surveys are taken

seriously by the survey developer.

– The questions are simple to understand.

– The topic is familiar.

– Multiple surveys confirm the same result.

Liberal–Conservative Ideology in America, 1970–2006

Party Identification in America, 1970–2006

Measuring American Public Opinion: Examples of Principles

Measuring American Public Opinion: Examples of Principles

Measuring American Public Opinion: Beliefs about Government

Trust in Government

Trust in Government

Approval of Presidents, Senators, Governors, Congress, and Trust In Government

Generic Approval and Consumer Sentiment

Policy Mood

Perceptions of The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Characteristics of American Public Opinion

• Economic Conditions• Americans are almost always worried about the economy.• But what is “the economy”?

– Gas prices– Unemployment– Grocery prices– Stock market– Home prices (the home is the most valuable asset most

people possess)

Americans’ Diagnoses of The Most Important Economic Problems

Americans’ Diagnoses of The Most Important Economic Problems

Public Opinion on Health Care Reform, 2009–2010

The Partisan Split Over Global Warming

Generational and Partisan Differences on Gay Rights

Does Public Opinion Matter?

• If not, then politicians, journalists, and political scientists spend a lot of time worrying about it for nothing.

• Some argue that the political process often ignores broad swaths of people, and this means that public opinion does not matter.

Public Opinion Poll

Do you agree or disagree that the policies of the U.S. government represent the preferences and opinions of the American people?

a) Strongly agree

b) Agree

c) Disagree

d) Strongly disagree

Public Opinion Poll

Americans vary enormously in their knowledge about government and politics, yet we treat all opinions as having equal weight. Should everyone’s political opinions be treated equally?

a) Yesb) No

Public Opinion Poll

Do you believe the majority of your political opinions are based on a full understanding of the issues?

a) Yes

b) No

Public Opinion Poll

Which of the following political values do you believe is most important?

a) Equality of opportunity

b) Liberty

c) Democracy

Public Opinion Poll

Which of the following do you feel has had the greatest influence on your political values?

a) Family

b) Social groups (racial, religious, national)

c) Education

d) Political conditions/experiences

Public Opinion Poll

Some commentators have pointed out that much of America is “purple,” rather than “red” or “blue.” To what extent do you agree or disagree that the red state/blue state stereotypes apply to your state?

a) Strongly agreeb) Agreec) Disagreed) Strongly Disagree

Chapter 5: Public Opinion

• Practice quizzes

• Flashcards

• Outlines

wwnorton.com/studyspace

Following this slide, you will find additional slides with photos, figures, and captions from the textbook.

Tracking Events and Public Opinion, 2004–2010

Early Theories of Public Opinion

The New Theory of Public Opinion

Where Do Opinions Come From?

Measuring Public Opinion