Construction Sales Model

8/18/2019 Construction Sales Model

1/40

The following spreadsheets provide a summary of the inputs used to develop a prediction model for

construction equipment sales of a particular model year in the past and in the future.

These data were used to determine the relationship between construction GDP and new construction equip

"#$ staff used the economic recovery factors as inputs to the %ff&road Simulation 'odel (%S'!. or mo

the %ffoad Diesel #ule.

)ach of the spreadsheets is summari*ed below+

Spreadsheet Description

"onstruction Sales Data "ontains raw data concerning new financed equipment sales from )q

lso contains a summary table for calendar yearmodel year -//0 to 1

"onstruction GDP3)mployment "ontains "alifornia construction GDP from the .S. $ureau of )cono

data from the .S. $ureau of 4abor Statistics.

"onstruction "orrelation linear regression plot used to predict "alifornia construction GDP fro

This correlation was used to predict construction GDP in 100/ and 10-

"onstruction #egression 'odel "ontains coefficients from a multiple linear regression model to predict

and a comparison table of actual sales and predicted sales using the li"onstruction $ Sales linear regression plot used to predict business as usual sales for con

"onstruction d5ustment actors summary of the data used to derive model year ad5ustment factors f

For additional information, please contact:

6icole Dolney

'anager, %ffoad Diesel nalyis Section

ndolney7arb.ca.gov

/-8&911&-8/:


2/40

ent sales, which were used to develop economic recovery factors (See ge Distributions.mdb!.

e details, consult the Technical Support Document for

ipment Data ssociates ""&- Database.

002.

ic nalysis, "alifornia construction employment

m construction employment data.

0 only since construction GDP data were not available for those years.

equipment sales from "alifornia construction GDP.

near regression model.struction and mining equipment into the future.

r construction and mining equipment.


3/40

"alendar ;ear Type 6ew or sed G) "ount ';

-//0 4)S) 6 0 :?%4)S4) 6 - -99 -/2/

-//0 >?%4)S4) 6 -0 - -/20

-//0 >?%4)S4) 6 1 2 -/22

-//0 >?%4)S4) 6 6 /<

-//- 4)S) 6 0 1?%4)S4) 6 - -=: -//0

-//- >?%4)S4) 6 1 19 -/2/

-//- >?%4)S4) 6 9 - -/22

-//- >?%4)S4) 6 6 -1--//1 4)S) 6 0 -9< -//1

-//1 4)S) 6 - -0/ -//-

-//1 4)S) 6 &- - -//9

-//1 4)S) 6 1 -- -//0

-//1 4)S) 6 6 29

-//1 #)6T4 6 0 --0 -//1

-//1 #)6T4 6 - --1 -//-


4/40

-//1 #)6T4 6 1 8 -//0

-//1 #)6T4 6 9 - -/2/

-//1 #)6T4 6 6 8<

-//1 S4) 6 0 :0/ -//1

-//1 S4) 6 - ==: -//-

-//1 S4) 6 -- 1 -/2-

-//1 S4) 6 1 :8 -//0-//1 S4) 6 1< = -/8:

-//1 S4) 6 = - -/22

-//1 S4) 6 6 ::8

-//1 >?%4)S4) 6 0 111 -//1

-//1 >?%4)S4) 6 - --2 -//-

-//1 >?%4)S4) 6 1 12 -//0

-//1 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -0:

-//9 4)S) 6 0 -2- -//9

-//9 4)S) 6 - --9 -//1

-//9 4)S) 6 1 : -//-

-//9 4)S) 6 8 - -/2<

-//9 4)S) 6 6 /2-//9 #)6T4 6 0 1=2 -//9

-//9 #)6T4 6 - -18 -//1

-//9 #)6T4 6 1 : -//-

-//9 #)6T4 6 9 - -//0

-//9 #)6T4 6 6 8<

-//9 S4) 6 0 ?%4)S4) 6 0 1?%4)S4) 6 - -9/ -//1

-//9 >?%4)S4) 6 &- - -//=

-//9 >?%4)S4) 6 1 / -//-

-//9 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -


5/40

-//= S4) 6 6 :20

-//= >?%4)S4) 6 0 9/0 -//=

-//= >?%4)S4) 6 - 1-2 -//9

-//= >?%4)S4) 6 &- - -//:

-//= >?%4)S4) 6 1 12 -//1

-//= >?%4)S4) 6 9 9 -//-

-//= >?%4)S4) 6 6 -98-//: 4)S) 6 0 9== -//:

-//: 4)S) 6 - -:2 -//=

-//: 4)S) 6 &- 9 -//8

-//: 4)S) 6 1 8 -//9

-//: 4)S) 6 &1 1 -//<

-//: 4)S) 6 6 -?%4)S4) 6 &- 9 -//8

-//: >?%4)S4) 6 1 8 -//9

-//: >?%4)S4) 6 6 --=

-//8 4)S) 6 0 =1- -//8

-//8 4)S) 6 - -/2 -//:-//8 4)S) 6 &- - -//<

-//8 4)S) 6 1 -0 -//=

-//8 4)S) 6 6 180

-//8 #)6T4 6 0 19- -//8

-//8 #)6T4 6 - -/: -//:

-//8 #)6T4 6 &- / -//<

-//8 #)6T4 6 1 -9 -//=

-//8 #)6T4 6 6 :-

-//8 S4) 6 0 -:== -//8

-//8 S4) 6 - --18 -//:

-//8 S4) 6 &- =9 -//<

-//8 S4) 6 1 ?%4)S4) 6 0 ?%4)S4) 6 - 910 -//:

-//8 >?%4)S4) 6 &- =- -//<

-//8 >?%4)S4) 6 1 -1 -//=

-//8 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -98


6/40

-//< 4)S) 6 0 =// -//<

-//< 4)S) 6 - 1:8 -//8

-//< 4)S) 6 &- 9 -//2

-//< 4)S) 6 1 8 -//:

-//< 4)S) 6 6 =0/

-//< #)6T4 6 0 9-2 -//<

-//< #)6T4 6 - -91 -//8-//< #)6T4 6 1 8 -//:

-//< #)6T4 6 6 :0

-//< S4) 6 0 -2/< -//<

-//< S4) 6 - -001 -//8

-//< S4) 6 &- 8 -//2

-//< S4) 6 1 82 -//:

-//< S4) 6 6 /0:

-//< >?%4)S4) 6 0 80< -//<

-//< >?%4)S4) 6 - 918 -//8

-//< >?%4)S4) 6 &- - -//2

-//< >?%4)S4) 6 1 : -//:

-//< >?%4)S4) 6 6 901-//2 4)S) 6 0 80- -//2

-//2 4)S) 6 - 192 -//<

-//2 4)S) 6 &- : -///

-//2 4)S) 6 1 1 -//8

-//2 4)S) 6 6 ==:

-//2 #)6T4 6 0 9/0 -//2

-//2 #)6T4 6 - --/ -//<

-//2 #)6T4 6 &- - -///

-//2 #)6T4 6 6 92

-//2 S4) 6 0 1:/9 -//2

-//2 S4) 6 - -0/: -//<

-//2 S4) 6 &- 11 -///-//2 S4) 6 1 -1 -//8

-//2 S4) 6 6 -0?%4)S4) 6 0 8/= -//2

-//2 >?%4)S4) 6 - 9:/ -//<

-//2 >?%4)S4) 6 &- 2 -///

-//2 >?%4)S4) 6 1 < -//8

-//2 >?%4)S4) 6 / = -/2/

-//2 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -18

-/// 4)S) 6 0 :/1 -///

-/// 4)S) 6 - 1-/ -//2

-/// 4)S) 6 &- : 1000

-/// 4)S) 6 1 2 -//<-/// 4)S) 6 6 =80

-/// #)6T4 6 0 =0- -///

-/// #)6T4 6 - -11 -//2

-/// #)6T4 6 &- - 1000

-/// #)6T4 6 1 1 -//<

-/// #)6T4 6 6 :=

-/// S4) 6 0 908/ -///

-/// S4) 6 - -028 -//2


7/40

-/// S4) 6 &- -< 1000

-/// S4) 6 -- - -/22

-/// S4) 6 -1 - -/2<

-/// S4) 6 1 12 -//<

-/// S4) 6 9 1 -//8

-/// S4) 6 = - -//:

-/// S4) 6 6 --11-/// >?%4)S4) 6 0 :?%4)S4) 6 - 1/0 -//2

-/// >?%4)S4) 6 &- 9 1000

-/// >?%4)S4) 6 9 - -//8

-/// >?%4)S4) 6 6 -1<

1000 4)S) 6 0 :=2 1000

1000 4)S) 6 - 189 -///

1000 4)S) 6 &- - 100-

1000 4)S) 6 1 1 -//2

1000 4)S) 6 6 :8:

1000 #)6T4 6 0 121 1000

1000 #)6T4 6 - -1/ -///1000 #)6T4 6 &- - 100-

1000 #)6T4 6 6 8=

1000 S4) 6 0 1?%4)S4) 6 - 1-= -///

1000 >?%4)S4) 6 &- = 100-

1000 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -:1100- 4)S) 6 0 981 100-

100- 4)S) 6 - 1:9 1000

100- 4)S) 6 &- - 1001

100- 4)S) 6 6 :82

100- #)6T4 6 0 -?%4)S4) 6 0 -2< 100-

100- >?%4)S4) 6 - -0: 1000

100- >?%4)S4) 6 &- = 1001

100- >?%4)S4) 6 6 -0-

1001 4)S) 6 0 18= 1001


8/40

1001 4)S) 6 - -=- 100-

1001 4)S) 6 &- : 1009

1001 4)S) 6 6 9?%4)S4) 6 0 -/8 1001

1001 >?%4)S4) 6 - ?%4)S4) 6 &- - 1009

1001 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -81

1009 4)S) 6 0 9-9 1009

1009 4)S) 6 - -0< 1001

1009 4)S) 6 &- -- 100=

1009 4)S) 6 1 1 100-1009 4)S) 6 6 9-1

1009 #)6T4 6 0 --< 1009

1009 #)6T4 6 - 82 1001

1009 #)6T4 6 6 =8

1009 S4) 6 0 9902 1009

1009 S4) 6 - -=99 1001

1009 S4) 6 &- 8= 100=

1009 S4) 6 1 - 100-

1009 S4) 6 6 --9<

1009 >?%4)S4) 6 0 91= 1009

1009 >?%4)S4) 6 - -1= 1001

1009 >?%4)S4) 6 &- 1 100=1009 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -9-

100= 4)S) 6 0 :89 100=

100= 4)S) 6 - -:2 1009

100= 4)S) 6 &- 1- 100:

100= 4)S) 6 6 :?%4)S4) 6 - 1=0 1009

100= >?%4)S4) 6 &- --- 100:

100= >?%4)S4) 6 6 -11

100: 4)S) 6 0


9/40

100: 4)S) 6 &- -= 1008

100: 4)S) 6 6 ::1

100: #)6T4 6 0 110 100:

100: #)6T4 6 - :/ 100=

100: #)6T4 6 &- -= 1008

100: #)6T4 6 6 99

100: S4) 6 0 :/18 100:100: S4) 6 - -/:- 100=

100: S4) 6 &- 2/ 1008

100: S4) 6 1 < 1009

100: S4) 6 9 - 1001

100: S4) 6 6 -=00

100: >?%4)S4) 6 0 89: 100:

100: >?%4)S4) 6 - --- 100=

100: >?%4)S4) 6 &- 11 1008

100: >?%4)S4) 6 1 - 1009

100: >?%4)S4) 6 6 1-/

1008 4)S) 6 0 28= 1008

1008 4)S) 6 - 1/2 100:1008 4)S) 6 &- =0 100<

1008 4)S) 6 1 8 100=

1008 4)S) 6 &1 - 1002

1008 4)S) 6 6 8:<

1008 #)6T4 6 0 11: 1008

1008 #)6T4 6 - 82 100:

1008 #)6T4 6 &- -8 100<

1008 #)6T4 6 1 1 100=

1008 #)6T4 6 6 98

1008 S4) 6 0 =/11 1008

1008 S4) 6 - 1:-< 100:

1008 S4) 6 &- -/1 100<1008 S4) 6 1 -0 100=

1008 S4) 6 8 - 1000

1008 S4) 6 2 - -//2

1008 S4) 6 6 -8/8

1008 >?%4)S4) 6 0 :/- 1008

1008 >?%4)S4) 6 - -=0 100:

1008 >?%4)S4) 6 &- -- 100<

1008 >?%4)S4) 6 6 109

100< 4)S) 6 0 809 100<

100< 4)S) 6 - 1/- 1008

100< 4)S) 6 &- =2 1002

100< 4)S) 6 -9 - -//=100< 4)S) 6 1 - 100:

100< 4)S) 6 6 -008

100< #)6T4 6 0 -0: 100<

100< #)6T4 6 - 9: 1008

100< #)6T4 6 &- < 1002

100< #)6T4 6 6 -2

100< S4) 6 0 9929 100<

100< S4) 6 - -2-0 1008


10/40

100< S4) 6 &- /8 1002

100< S4) 6 1 : 100:

100< S4) 6 6 ---2

100< >?%4)S4) 6 0 :9= 100<

100< >?%4)S4) 6 - -=/ 1008

100< >?%4)S4) 6 &- 1 1002

100< >?%4)S4) 6 6 12<1002 4)S) 6 0 9?%4)S4) 6 0 :-8 1002

1002 >?%4)S4) 6 - 8= 100<

1002 >?%4)S4) 6 &- == 100/

1002 >?%4)S4) 6 6 -=2

100/ 4)S) 6 0 -1: 100/

100/ 4)S) 6 - 2< 1002

100/ 4)S) 6 &- 2 10-0

100/ 4)S) 6 1 1 100<

100/ 4)S) 6 6 :=<

100/ #)6T4 6 0 -9- 100/100/ #)6T4 6 - =: 1002

100/ #)6T4 6 &- 1 10-0

100/ #)6T4 6 6 9<

100/ S4) 6 0 === 100/

100/ S4) 6 - :=0 1002

100/ S4) 6 &- 8 10-0

100/ S4) 6 1 9 100<

100/ S4) 6 9 - 1008

100/ S4) 6 8 - 1009

100/ S4) 6 / - 1000

100/ S4) 6 6 :8-

100/ >?%4)S4) 6 0 ?%4)S4) 6 - 8: 1002

100/ >?%4)S4) 6 &- 9 10-0

100/ >?%4)S4) 6 6 1=


11/40

Data Summary

Model Year/Calendar Year New Financed Equipment Sales

-//0 1-/=

-//- -099

-//1 /


12/40


13/40


14/40


15/40


16/40


17/40


18/40


19/40

alculated using the count of age 0

from the second year.

ge 9, "; -//1! A 1-/= sales


20/40


21/40


22/40


23/40


24/40


25/40


26/40


27/40

"alendar ;ear )mployment (thousands! GDP (millions!

-//0 8==./ 98800

-//- :81.9 9-/9<

-//1 =/:.: 1/01-

-//9 =:/.= 1


28/40

the current year to the previous year


29/40

=00 :00 800


30/40

M$%&'!%E %'NE() )E)ESS'*N *$&!$&

Regression Statistics

'ultiple # 0./8::-918

# Square 0./911-:28

d5usted # Square 0./19


31/40

Significance F

=.=:82-2)&0-0

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95!% Upper 95!%

&12


32/40

-/82 -/


33/40

Model Year Year 'nde+

!redicted Sales Coefficients -/8/ &1-

Fntercept &-/2-.: -/


34/40

10-<

10-2

10-/

1010

101-

1011

1019101=

101:

1018

101<

1012

101/

1090

109-


35/40

Fast Scenario Slow Scenario (era-e Scenario

D! 6 8 (ctual/!redicted Sales (ctual/!redicted Sales (ctual/!redicted Sales

:9


36/40

:


37/40

Modified Final Scenario ustment Factor (d>ustment Factor


38/40

9


39/40

(era-e Modified Scenario

(d>ustment Factor (d>ustment Factor

-.00 -.00

9.9- 9.9-

1.08 1.08

-.:9 -.:9

-.-< -.-<

0./9 0./9

0./9 0./9

0./9 0./9

-.00 -.00

-.0< -.0<

0./8 0./8

0.28 0.28

0.8= 0.8=

0.89 0.89

0.2< 0.2<

0.// 0.//

-.-= -.-=

-.10 -.10

-.1< -.1<

-.12 -.12

-.-< -.-<

0.28 0.28

0.9/ 0.9/

0.9: 0.9:

0.=8 0.=8

0.80 0.80

0.20 0.20

0.


40/40

0.88 0.88

0.8< 0.

Documents

Construction Sales Model