Consultation Summer Reliability Assessment May 2011

8/14/2019 Consultation Summer Reliability Assessment May 2011

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Summer ReliabilityAssessment Consultation

25 May 2011 CD/T02/001


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Document Approved by Recipients of controlled copies

CD/T02/001 NC ADWEC, TRANSCO, ADDC, AADC

Bureau

Summer Reliability Assessment

Author Document Issue Publication date Approved by

KB CD/T02/001 1 25 May 2011 NC

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Consultation

CD/T02/001

25 May 2011


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Foreword

1. One of the duties of the Bureau is to provide the Abu Dhabi Government with

independent briefings on the status of the electricity sector. Such briefings cover all

aspects of the sector: strategic, operational, technical and commercial.

2. An important matter for the Government is how well prepared the sector is to meet the

summer demand in the forthcoming year, this being the time when the sectors

capabilities are most extended. To date, the Bureau has provided ad hoc briefings to the

Government on forecast summer status and any issues likely to arise.

3. The Bureau now proposes establishing a routine annual process to produce a Summer

Reliability Assessment (SRA). This will be an assessment of how well-equipped and

prepared the sector is to satisfy customer demand during the coming summer peak. The

intention is that the SRA would be finalised by the end of the last quarter of each year;

the first SRA will be completed at the end of 2011.

4. The SRA will draw together information for the whole sector. It is envisaged that the final

confidential report to the Government will be a brief summary, with the emphasis on

clearly identifying key issues and status.

5. The SRA will present the Bureaus assessment of status, based on information provided

by sector companies. Consequently, there will need to be a defined process laying out

the timetable and the information that sector companies will need to provide.

6. It is anticipated that much of the information required will already be produced by sector

companies. However it is recognised that there may need to be some changes to what is

currently reported, the format in which it is provided and report timelines - the provision ofdata will in future need to strictly align with the SRA annual timetable.

7. The Bureau envisages discussing the details of the information required for the SRA with

individual companies subsequent to this consultation. It is recognised that the SRA is

likely to evolve reflecting feedback on experience as it is used in the future.

8. Clearly, given the visibility of, and audience for, the SRA, the Bureau will want to be

assured of the quality of the underlying data. Where appropriate, the Bureau will discuss

with sector companies the processes used to provide the data.

9. The SRA, by presenting a succinct sector-wide summary, will be of great value to the

Government. It will also provide a vehicle for the sector to communicate matters of

importance. It is expected that in defining the SRA, the sector will have the opportunity to

communicate at the highest level a consolidated view of the complex inter-dependencies,

key risks and target investment areas to underpin immediate and medium-term security

of supply. Moreover, defining the SRA will allow the sector to consider the most

appropriate indicators of readiness and risk in each area.

10. This consultation document describes the approach that the Bureau proposes to take,

describing the scope of the SRA, the responsibilities of sector companies and the

proposed annual timetable.


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11. Specific consultation questions are included in the document and comments are also

invited on any aspect of the proposals. Responses should be submitted by 30th June

2011 and should be sent to:

Ali Al Mashjari, Production Manager, RSB

[email protected]

KARL BROWNSON

DIRECTOR PRODUCTION AND CONTRACTS


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Executive Summary

Introduction and Objectives

1. The Bureau proposes presenting to the Abu Dhabi Government an annual assessment of

the robustness of the electricity sector to meet the forthcoming summer period. The

assessment will be called the Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA).

2. It is proposed that the SRA will cover the period May to October.

Scope, Format and Content

3. The SRA will cover the whole sector and will be built upon a series of Topic Area

assessments submitted by the responsible sector company. These will include:

(a) Demand Forecast (ADWEC)

(b) Production (ADWEC), based on

(i) Fuel Supply (ADWEC)

(ii) Generation Capacity (ADWEC)

(c) Transmission and Despatch (TRANSCO)

(d) Distribution (AADC, ADDC)

4. The emphasis will be on making the SRA succinct, with the target for its total length

being about 10 pages (or less).

5. The Topic Area assessments will in essence be risk assessments and will include

Conclusions, Key Indicators, Summary Data, and Risks, Issues and Actions.

6. The Bureau will build the SRA using the submitted Topic Area assessments but will

reach its own view on the risks in each area. The Bureau will draft and issue the overall

SRA document and consequently, the SRA will be a Bureau report. It is expected that the

SRA will be a confidential document.

Process and Timetable

7. It is expected that the annual process will include initial definition work in the first part of

the year and that data submission and SRA production will need to take place from

September onwards, leading to the SRA being completed by year-end.

8. The proposed timetable provides for an initial and final version of the Topic Area

assessments, so that the final version will take account of the latest information available

towards year-end.

9. It is anticipated that much of the data needed for the SRA will already be readily available

from sector companies; however it is recognised that there may be some additions and

there will be a need to align processes and timetables.


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10. The first SRA will be produced at the end of 2011.

Consultation Process

11. Comments on the proposals are invited by 30th

June 2011 and should be sent to;


[email protected]


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Contents

1. Introduction .................................................................................... 7Objectives Consultation Questions ........................................................... 7

2. Scope of the SRA .......................................................................... 9Scope Consultation Questions ................................................................. 9

3. The Format of the SRA ................................................................ 10Format Consultation Questions .............................................................. 10

4. Content of the SRA ...................................................................... 12Annual Period to be Covered ................................................................. 12Topic Area Assessments ........................................................................ 12Consolidated Summary and Conclusions ............................................... 13Content Consultation Questions ............................................................. 13

5. Process and Annual Timetable .................................................... 15The SRA Process ................................................................................... 15Annual SRA Schedule ............................................................................ 15Integration With Existing Sector Planning Processes ............................. 16Consultation Questions .......................................................................... 16

6. Consultation Process ................................................................... 17Annex A ................................................................................................ 18

Introduction ............................................................................................. 18Topic Area: Demand Forecast................................................................ 18Topic Area: Fuel Supply ......................................................................... 18Topic Area: Generation Capacity ........................................................... 19Topic Area: Production ........................................................................... 20Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch ................................................ 21Topic Area: Distribution .......................................................................... 22


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1. Introduction

1.1 One of the duties of the Bureau is to brief the Abu Dhabi Government on the status of

the electricity sector and highlight in advance any issues that should be brought to its

attention. The Bureau gives these briefings as and when necessary and they mayaddress any aspect of the sectors activities.

1.2 Of particular interest to the Government is how well prepared the sector is for the

summer period, since it is recognised that during this period the sectors capabilities

and capacity are under the most stress.

1.3 The Bureau therefore intends to institute a regular annual report to the Government

which will look forward to the next summer period. In short, the objective will be to

provide the Government with an annual overview (The Summer Reliability

Assessment (SRA)) of the sectors robustness. The SRA will focus on the summer

period and will be published in the last quarter of the year.

1.4 In the above objective, robustness encompasses:

(a) The ability of the sector to meet forecast customer demand given normal

operations.

(b) The ability of the sector to continue to meet forecast customer demand in the

event of foreseeable but unexpected events.

(c) The ability of the sector to respond to and recover from unexpected events.

1.5 The SRA will be drafted and issued by the Bureau and presented to the Government

by the Bureau. It will be based upon information provided by sector companiesreflecting their own detailed understanding of the status in their own areas of

responsibility.

1.6 Given that the Government is the main audience of the report, the emphasis will be on

concise messages and clear communication of the main issues.

1.7 There will also be benefits to the sector as a whole: the SRA will highlight issues

which need to be addressed. By clearly identifying the most important issues, the

SRA will be a valuable tool for RSB itself, helping to establish priorities for action.

1.8 This consultation describes the proposed scope, format, and general content of the

SRA; a detailed specification of the required data is not set out at this stage, but will

be agreed subsequently with sector companies. This consultation also sets out the

process and timetable for the production of the SRA.

Objectives Consultation Questions

1.9 Consultation Questions

(a) Do you support the objective of preparing an annual, forward looking SRA for the

Government which encompasses the whole sector?


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(b) Do you agree that it is appropriate to focus on the robustness of the sector,

meaning the ability of the sector to meet forecast consumer demand under a

variety of circumstances?


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2. Scope of the SRA

2.1 It is intended that the scope of the SRA should encompass the end to end robustness

of the sector from fuel supply through to supply to the end consumer. Figure 2.1

illustrates, conceptually, the scope of the SRA.

Figure 2.1: Scope of SRA

ProductionAssessment

SUMMERRELIABILITYASSESSMENT

DemandForecastAssessment

FuelSupplyAssessment

Primary BUF

GenerationCapacity

Assessment

Availability

Outages

Connections

DistributionAssessment

Connections/Reinforcements

Capacity

Outages

Transmission&DespatchAssessment

Connections/Reinforcements

Outages

Capacity/Constraints

Capacity

EmergencyPlans

EmergencyPlansLOLE

2.2 Figure 2.1 shows the main areas which will be included in the SRA; by way of

illustration, it also indicates some of the topics which will be included within each main

area. A fuller description is given in Section 4.

2.3 Figure 2.1 also indicates some of the relationships between the various main areas. In

particular,, it recognises that the demand forecast forms an essential input and

backdrop to a number of areas. For clarity, however, the figure does not seek to show

every interaction: for example, aspects of the Transmission and Despatch

Assessment would no doubt reflect information on up to date generation status and

plans.

Scope Consultation Questions


(a) Do you consider any areas should be added to or omitted from the scope of the

SRA?


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3. The Format of the SRA

3.1 Figure 3.1 illustrates how the SRA will be built from base data about each Topic Area

provided by sector companies.

Figure 3.1: Format of the SRA

3.2 It is envisaged that at the top level the SRA will include a summary of conclusions

about overall status for the summer period (perhaps including a traffic light status

indicator) and a schedule of major risks, issues, and areas where mitigation action is

needed. The aim would be to make this 1 page or less in length. RSB will draft this

overview.

3.3 Also included in the SRA will be a summary assessment for each of the Topic Areas.

This will include conclusions about the status of the Topic Area for the summer

period, again including a traffic light status indicator. These conclusions will be

supported by a summary for the Topic Area including risks, issues and areas where

action is needed; this will be supported by key indicators and reference data.

3.4 Once again, the emphasis will be on conciseness for the Topic Area Assessments:

ideally, each of these would be less than 1 page long.

3.5 It is envisaged that the responsible sector company will submit their Topic Area

Assessment(s) to RSB for consideration for inclusion in the SRA.

3.6 A question to be considered would be how much supporting information would be

required for the report. If the primary audience is the Government, then too much

information may tend to obscure the conclusions.

Format Consultation Questions



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(a) Do you agree with the overall format and structure proposed for the SRA?

(b) Would you propose any changes to the SRA format and structure?


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4. Content of the SRA

4.1 In this section RSB proposes what information should be included in each section of

the SRA. At this stage, the data required is not set out in precise detail: it is envisaged

that the Bureau will agree the detailed specification subsequently with each of theresponsible sector companies.

Annual Period to be Covered

4.2 The objective is for the SRA to cover the period of high risk. While peak demand is

likely to occur during July to September, summer restrictions on planned outages

commence in April. It is also recognised that demand increases very rapidly from May

onwards and, for example, any forced outages during this period would therefore

present a risk.

4.3 To ensure that periods of high risk are covered, the Bureaus proposal is that the SRAshould cover the period May to October. This will encompass peak demand and also

periods where demand is changing rapidly.

Topic Area Assessments

4.4 This section summarises the proposed content for each Topic Area, starting with a

generic description which will apply to each. Following this, Table 4.1 gives a

summary of the content for each Topic Area Assessment. A fuller description for each

Topic Area is given in Annex A.

4.5 It is envisaged that each Topic Area Assessment will include the following:

(a) A dashboard style Conclusion setting out the forecast status for the summer

period. This would comprise:

(i) A traffic light indicator for the forecast status for the Topic Area, generally

as below:

Arrangements are in place and ready to meet requirements in the

Topic Area, taking account of any reasonably foreseeable

issues/risks forecast (in full control).

Significant risks/issues are identified and plans are ready and

approved to have the required corrective arrangements in place (in

control subject to identified dependencies).

Risks/issues identified for which no corrective/mitigating actions are

yet approved (At risk of failure without urgent action).

(ii) A brief statement of the forecast status of the Topic Area.

(b) Key Indicatorshighlighting important aspects of forecast status. These are likely

to be derived from Summary data for the Topic Area. Where possible, the

intention will be to identify a set of key indicators for each Topic Area, together


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with satisfactory, warning and danger levels for each indicator these will again

be displayed in dashboard style.

(c) Summary datafor key aspects of the Topic Area.

(d) Risks, Issues and Actions for the Topic Area.

4.6 Table 4.1 lists the main items to be included in the assessments for each Topic Area-

see Annex A for fuller details.

Consolidated Summary and Conclusions

4.7 The top level of the SRA will comprise the Bureaus overall view on the readiness and

resilience of the sector. This will be based on the individual Topic Area Assessments

submitted by sector companies and, as appropriate, will include key conclusions and

risks from these reports.

4.8 The Consolidated Summary and Conclusions will also look across the sector to reach

a view on the cumulative risk for the summer period arising and highlight any sector

risks and issues which have not emerged from the Topic Area Assessments.

4.9 A set of traffic light indicators will provide an overall view of forecast status. For

example, as below:

The sector is ready for the summer period and the risk of a major failure is low.

There are significant risks to be addressed before the summer period.

There is a high risk of a major failure during the summer period.

Content Consultation Questions

4.10 Consultation Questions:

(a) Do you agree that it is appropriate for the SRA to cover May to October annually?

If not, what period do you consider would be best?

(b) Do you agree with the proposed generic contents of each Topic Area

Assessment:

(i) Conclusion

(ii) Key Indicators

(iii) Summary data

(iv) Risks, Issues, Actions

(c) Please provide your views on the content proposed for each Topic Area (in Table

4.1 and Annex A). Specific proposals are welcomed at this stage, although the

Bureau expects to discuss precise details with sector companies following this

consultation.

(d) Is the information envisaged readily available within your company?


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5. Process and Annual Timetable

The SRA Process Responsibilities

5.1 The Bureau will be responsible for drafting, issuing and communicating the SRA; the

Bureau will use information provided by sector companies.

5.2 In the interests of efficiency, the Bureau will use information provided by sector

companies to determine a view of the sector, rather than developing separate

independent data. However, all information provided to the Bureau must be evidenced

and readily available for audit purposes as required.

5.3 The main responsibilities in the SRA process are expected to be as below:

(a) Communicate Goals and Objectives RSB.

(b) Design SRA process RSB.

(c) Communicate SRA process and brief sector companies RSB.

(d) Oversee SRA process execution (including assurance on data) RSB. The key

to the value and credibility of the SRA will be the quality of data on which it is

based. Clearly, the Bureau will need to have confidence in the basis of the report,

since the intended audience is the Government.

(e) Collect base data for a Topic Area the responsible sector company as identified

in Section 4.

(f) Produce assessment for a Topic Area it is proposed that the responsible sectorcompany will produce an initial assessment for consideration; RSB will provide a

view and develop any submission further as it deems necessary.

(g) Produce Overall SRA, brief/discuss with sector companies RSB.

(h) Communicate SRA, brief recipients RSB.

Annual SRA Schedule

5.4 An indicative timetable is given in Table 5.1. This shows that, after definitional work

earlier in the year, the production of the SRA would be carried out in the Autumn.

5.5 The timetable allows for two cycles of the production of the Topic Area

Aassessments. The first would be completed by the end of October, using the

information then available. This would include the latest available Demand Forecast,

which may well be that published earlier in the year.

5.6 Provision is made for a second cycle, to reflect any updated information and

comments on the first version. The final Topic Area Assessments would then be

submitted to RSB by the end of November. It is appreciated that this may require

changes to current sector company workplans, but this timeline will be necessary to

achieve the intended objectives.


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6. Consultation Process

6.1 The Bureau is happy to discuss any of the proposals in this paper during the

consultation period.

6.2 Comments on any aspect of the proposals are invited including, but not limited to, the

consultation questions included in the paper.

6.3 Responses should be emailed to:


[email protected]

Responses should be sent by 30thJune 2011

6.4 At present, the Bureau intends to discuss consultation responses and the detailed

design of the SRA with sector companies during July 2011.


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Annex A

Introduction

A.1 This section gives an initial description, for each Topic Area, of the information that

should be included by the responsible sector company in the Topic Area Assessment.

The format for each follows the template given in Section 4.

A.2 The Bureau envisages that the exact definition of the information to be included will be

discussed with the responsible sector company.

Topic Area: Demand Forecast

A.3 The assessment for the Demand Forecast Topic Area will answer the questions:

(a) What is the forecast peak demand for the summer period?

(b) Any changes in demand estimate from the previous Seven Year Statement?

(c) Is their a significant risk that forecast peak demand will further increase

significantly?

A.4 The responsible sector company is ADWEC.

A.5 The Conclusionsfor this Topic Area will highlight in particular any forecast increases to

peak demand, or changes to the timing of the peak. For this Topic Area, the Traffic Light

Indicator will be used to indicate the risk that forecast peak demand has increased

significantly, or that its timing has changed.

A.6 Key indicatorswould be:

(a) % change of forecast peak demand over previous year actual peak.

A.7 Summary datawill be a graph showing peak demand through the summer period.

Topic Area: Fuel Supply

A.8 The assessment for the Fuel Supply Topic Area will answer the questions:

(a) Has adequate Primary Fuel been contractually secured for the summer period?

(b) What logistical risks exist for the delivery of the Primary Fuel (for example,

pipeline outages) and how are these to be addressed?

(c) If required, has adequate liquid fuel been contractually secured to meet routine

and continuous operation within the sector as per forecast requirements? Have

all logistics for this fuel been contractually secured through the SRA period?

(d) What remaining logistical risks remain to meeting the routine and continuous

operational requirements of the sector?


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(e) Are strategic emergency (7-day) stocks of Back Up Fuel (BUF) sufficient and in

place?

(f) What logistical risks exist for the delivery of BUF (for example, shipping

arrangements) to meet a period of extended BUF usage and how have these

been addressed?(g) Are supporting letters in place from all IWPPs specifically confirming their

individual full understanding of ADWECs requirements through the SRA period?


A.10 The Conclusions for this Topic Area will summarise to what degree adequate fuel has

been secured to meet forecast summer demand, and how resilient this position is to

unexpected supply interruptions. The Traffic Light Indicator will be

If adequate Primary Fuel has been contractually secured, adequate additional

fuel (outside LTA) or any form of energy to substitute has been contractually

secured to meet short-term interruptions to Primary Fuel supply, and all required

logistical arrangements are in place

If adequate fuel has been contractually secured, but required logistical

arrangements are not yet complete or significant use of BUF is planned

If there is a shortfall in contractually secured Primary or BUF.

A.11 Key indicatorswill be

(a) At the peak, % of required Primary Fuel that has been contractually and

logistically secured and % that has been additionally assured.

(b) At the peak, the % of capacity for which the BUF requirement has been

contractually and logistically secured.

(c) At the peak, the % of any shortfall in Primary Fuel that secured BUF will cover.

A.12 Summary datawill be a graph showing, through the summer period, the Primary Fuel

needed to meet forecast demand, the amount that has been secured contractually and

logistically and the level of BUF which has been contractually and logistically secured to

meet any Primary Fuel shortfall.

A.13 Risks, Issues, and Actionswill include an assessment of how resilient the fuel supply is

to unexpected events: in particular, unexpected reductions in gas supply (e.g. a pipeline

outage); or BUF logistical problems. Also highlighted will be any required decisions and

actions.

Topic Area: Generation Capacity

A.14 The assessment for the Generation Capacity Topic Area will answer the questions:

(a) Will adequate generation capacity be available to meet demand through the

summer period?


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(b) Are any significant generation outages or reductions in availability planned for the

summer period?

(c) To what extent does meeting summer demand rely on the successful completion

of planned generation outages or the commissioning of new plant?

(d) Will security of generation criteria be maintained at forecast demand?

(e) To what extent could unplanned generation outages in the summer be absorbed

whilst still meeting forecast demand?


A.16 The Conclusions for this Topic Area will summarise to what degree the installed

generation capacity is adequate to meet forecast demand, leaving aside any factors

external to the plants, such as fuel availability. The Traffic Light Indicators will be

If throughout the summer period the installed capacity taking account of forecastreliability and planned outages is adequate to meet demand, with the required

Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) standard satisfied.

If the installed capacity meets forecast demand with the required LOLE standard

satisfied, but only with a reliance on commissioning of new plant, or by assuming

exceptional measures (such as, for example, peak or emergency capacity

from IWPPs).

If at any time during the summer period, the installed capacity is not adequate to

meet forecast demand and meet the required LOLE standard.

A.17 Key Indicatorswill be

(a) Overall LOLE for the summer period and LOLE for each week

(b) System margin (%) through the summer period

A.18 Summary Data will include a graph showing available capacity and forecast demand

throughout the summer period.

A.19 Risks, Issues and Actions will include consideration of to what degree an unexpected

loss of generation capacity could be absorbed whilst still meeting forecast demand.

Topic Area: ProductionA.20 The assessment for the Production Topic Area is based on the conclusions from the Fuel

Supply and Generation Capacity Topic Areas taken together and will answer the

questions:

(a) Will the production of electricity be sufficient to meet demand throughout the

summer period?

(b) To what degree is the ability to meet demand resilient to unexpected events?


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(c) What, if any, exceptional measures will need to be taken to meet forecast

demand through the SRA period and what impact would these have on water

production?


A.22 The Conclusionswill provide an overall view of the risk that production will not be able

to meet demand in the summer period. The Traffic Light Indicators will be:

If it is forecast that production will meet demand throughout the summer period,

without reliance on exceptional measures (such as extended use of BUF or

forced reductions in production of water).

If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that production will not be able to

meet demand at some time during the summer period (if, for example, LOLE only

just meets the required standard overall or system margin is close to acceptable

limits).

If it forecast that there is a high risk that at some time during the summer period,production will not meet forecast demand (for example, LOLE does not meet the

required standard, or supplies of Primary Fuel have not been secured, or

extended use of BUF is planned).

A.23 The assessment for this Topic Area builds upon those for fuel and generation capacity,

and it is not expected that additional Key Indicators or Summary Datawill be required.

A.24 Risks, Issues, Actionswill explain the key factors leading to the risk assessment, and

the actions necessary to mitigate the identified risks. The ability to maintain adequate

production in the face of unexpected events will also be described.

Topic Area: Transmission and Despatch

A.25 The assessment for the Transmission and Despatch Topic Area will answer the

questions:

(a) Will the transmission network be able to serve forecast demand throughout the

summer period?

(b) Will it be possible to meet the required security standards, including level of

reserve on the network, throughout the summer period?

(c) Will any areas of the network be particularly at risk?

(d) To what extent does the ability of the network to serve forecast demand rely on

enhancements and maintenance to be completed before the summer?

(e) How resilient is the network to unexpected events and are emergency plans

ready to meet such occurrences? Are Black Start preparations ready?

A.26 The responsible sector company is TRANSCO.

A.27 The Conclusions will summarise whether, given the planned configuration of the

network and operating requirements and constraints, it will be possible to reliably serve


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forecast demand. The ability to respond to unexpected events will be assessed, including

the ability to recover from major failures. The Traffic light Indicators will be:

If it is forecast that with the expected network configuration, all forecast demand

will be served throughout the summer period.

If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that all forecast demand will not beserved at some point during the summer period, or that serving forecast demand

depends on yet to be completed enhancements.

If it is forecast that there is a high risk that all demand will not be served at some

point during the summer period, or that security standards will not be met at

some time during the summer.

A.28 Key indicatorswill be

(a) Forecast level of generation and transmission constraints through the summer

period.

(b) Forecast level of planned transmission outages through the summer period.

(c) Is suitable Emergency & Disaster Recovery plan available?

(d) Percentage of Demand at Single Circuit risk (With & without Derogation) during

summer period.

A.29 Summary Datawill be as for Key Indicators

A.30 Risks, Issues, Actionswill explain the key factors leading to the risk assessment, and

the actions necessary to mitigate the identified risks.

Topic Area: Distribution

A.31 The assessment for the Distribution and Supply Topic Area will answer the questions:

(a) Will the distribution network be able to serve forecast demand throughout the

summer period, without a decline in the customer service KPIs?

(b) Will any areas of the network be particularly at risk?

(c) Percentage of Demand at Single Circuit risk (With & without Derogation) during

summer period.

(d) Is suitable Emergency & Disaster Recovery plan available?

(e) To what extent does the ability of the network to serve forecast demand rely on

enhancements and maintenance to be completed before the summer?

(f) How resilient is the network to unexpected events, and are emergency plans

ready to meet such occurrences?

A.32 The responsible sector companies are ADDC and AADC and it is envisaged that each

will provide a separate assessment for their area of responsibility.

A.33 The Conclusions will summarise whether, given the planned configuration of the

network and operating requirements and constraints, it will be possible to serve forecast


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A th D t I P bli ti d t A d b

demand (assuming adequate bulk supply from the TRANSCO network) whilst

maintaining the quality of customer service. The Traffic light Indicators will be:

If it is forecast that customer service quality and security of supply standards will

with a high probability be maintained throughout the summer period.

If it is forecast that there is a significant risk that security of supply or customerservice quality will decline in the forthcoming summer period, or that achieving

the required quality depends on yet to be completed enhancements.

If it is forecast that there is a high risk that security of supply or customer service

quality standards standards will be lower than during the previous summer.

A.34 Key Indicatorswill be:

(a) Planned level of planned outages through the summer period.

(b) % of demand served by substations where forecast demand will exceed 80% of

firm capacity.

A.35 Summary datawill include that necessary to support the key indicators.

A.36 Risks, Issues, Actions will identify any aspects of the network particularly at risk.

Documents

Consultation Summer Reliability Assessment May 2011