1

CONVECTIVE INDICES FOR THE CONVECTIVE INDICES FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFICTROPICAL PACIFICCapt Matt Stratton (Mar 06) Advisors: P. Harr and R. ElsberrySponsor: Air Force Weather, Thesis Topic # 58Beneficiary: 17 OWS, Hickam AFB, HI

This thesis determined the indices that best predicted initiation of deep convection in the tropical Pacific at 5 island locations (ROAH, PGUM, PKWA, PHLI, HTO) for a specific season.

(500) (850,500)SSI T T

TT CT VT

(850) (500)VT T T

LRH

MRH

( ) ( ln )EL

SFC d v vLFC

CAPE R T T d p ( ) (ln )

LFCSFC d v v

SFCCIN R T T d p

(850) (500)dCT T T

NEG LFC SFCDPTH Z Z

POS EL LFCDPTH Z Z

[ (850) (500)] (850) [ (700) (700)]KI T T Td T Td

(500) ( ,500)SFCLI T T SFC

( )

SFCSFC

EL LFC

CAPENCAPE

Z Z

LMSHR

LSPD

SWEAT

HTEMP

LTEMP

PKWA -- KI vs. Julian Date

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

Julian Date

KI

(° C

)

None DayNone NightCP DayCP NightTS DayTS Night

34

34

0.24

Predictors18 Indicescalculatedfrom rawinsondes

Predictands1) Surface weather observations2) NRL blended rainrate data