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Converting the Unconverted:Dispelling the False Consensus
BiasPunam Anand Keller
(http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/punam.keller/)
Topics
1. Shed light on decision-making process
2. Message tactics used for increasing compliance
3. Research methods to access this information
OR
1. Shed light on Process
OR
Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing
COGNITIVE MOTIVATIONAL
Message Characteristics
• Low/High Level of Fear
• Framing (Gain/Loss)• Low/High Vividness• Base/Case Format• Physical/Social
consequences• Order of
Recommendations/Consequences
• Self/Other Referencing
• Low/High Argument Strength
• Single/Multiple Exposures
• Low/High Source Credibility
• Tailoring/Mass• Emotional/Rational
Research Processes
1. Lab experiments
2. Ethnography
3. Meta-analysis
Lab Studies• Low Fear appeals are more effective for segments who are not
currently saving for retirement; High Fear appeals are more effective for those who are…
• Gain Frames are more effective for segments who are depressed; Loss frames are more effective for the optimistic…
• Vivid presentations are more effective for less involved segments; Presentation format is less important for those who are involved…
• Recommendations should appear before consequences for those who are not currently saving to prevent freezing; The reverse format is more effectives for those who are converted…
• Women are more persuaded by consequences to others; Men are more persuaded by self-consequences...
• Women find case presentations more compelling; Men prefer base rate presentations…
Ethnography
RetirementSavings
Children’sEducation
Buy a Bigger House
Host Parties
Future Better ThanPast
Live Today
InStyle
Ethnography
• 1. Identify benefits lost due to advocated behaviors.– Loss in identity/status, image in community,
enjoyment/relaxation in the short-term…. due to reduced income/increased saving…
• 2. Connect same benefits to advocated behaviors.– Gain in identity/status, image in community may be
replaced with volunteer work instead of spending…– Proportion of savings could be directed to a
community fund or vacation in the short-term…
Meta-Analysis
For AfricanAmericanWomen over 50
Half of whom think the Govt. will bail them out, but all of who think they are in big trouble if not
But are split on whether anything works or
whether they can save
Only 20% have any retirement
savings
A message to encourageRetirement
Savings
Self-ReferencingMale
Communicator
Gain FrameSocial Consequences
Case/Story
.61 .90
Changing Attitudes is not enough
• Unconverted may have awareness, interest, attitude and even behavioral intentions, but cannot change behavior.
» Cost (barriers)/benefit (gifts) tradeoff» Facilitating conditions» Responsibility» Social norms
Topics
1. Shed light on decision-making process
2. Message tactics used for increasing compliance
3. Research methods to access this information
Additional Notes
Heuristics & Biases
• Overconfidence
• Anchoring
• Availability
• Probability
• Mental Accounting
Actual Confidence
Individual Differences
Message Factors
Desired Confidence
Contextual Factors
Available/Accessible Gap
*Goal: Attenuate Anti-Compliance Heuristic and Motivate Systematic Processing
1. Shed light on Process
General Attitude Towards Compliance for
Saving/Risk
Specific Attitude Towards Retirement Planning and
Savings Recommendations
Heuristic/SystematicMessage Processing,
Attitude Towards Recommendations
(even though they may not be read)
Individual Differences
• Gender• Age• Race• Involvement• Prior Intentions/Behavior• Threat Appraisal• Coping Appraisal• Self Regulation Orientation
Context Factors
• Prevention vs. Promotion
• Level of controllability
• Level of responsibility
• Level of uncertainty
Specific Attitudes Toward Risk
Individual Differences
Message Factors
Cognitive ReasonsLow Expectancy
For Unsafe Incidents
Motivational ReasonsPositive self-evaluations
Unrealistic optimism Illusion of Control
General Attitudes Toward Risk
HeuristicProcessing
Contextual Factors
2. Role of Communications
3: Role of Message Tactics
Increase expectancy for:
SusceptibilitySeverity
Cognitive Reasons:Low Expectancy
For Unsafe Incidents
Motivational Reasons:Positive self-evaluations,
Unrealistic optimism, Illusion of Control
Consequences: Low/Hi ThreatPhysical/SocialVivid/BlandPositive/NegativeBase/Case RateLow/Hi FrequencyLow/Hi ControllabilitySelf/Other ReferencingStandard/Tailored
Recommendations:Low/Hi Response Effic.Low/Hi Self-EfficacyLow/Hi Costs/BarriersLow/Hi Facilitators Prevention/DetectionAbstract/ConcreteSelf/Other ReferencingApproach/AvoidLow/Hi Responsibility
Increase expectancy for:
Response EfficacySelf-Efficacy
Available/Accessible