Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies (CICS)(CICS)

The purpose of CICS is to: Foster collaborative research between NOAA and the

University of Maryland in studies of satellite climatology, climate diagnostics, modeling and prediction.

Serve as a center at which scientists and engineers working on problems of mutual interest may focus on studies contributing to the understanding of the earth-ocean-atmosphere climate system, climate modeling, climate prediction, and satellite climatology.

Stimulate the training of scientists and engineers in appropriate disciplines

For two decades CICS has fostered collaborative research between NOAA and the University that has covered a wide range of problems in radiation budget studies, climate diagnostics and atmospheric chemistry.

Three major research theme areas have evolved within CICS, namely:

Global Energy and Water Cycles, Climate Diagnostics and Prediction, and Atmospheric Chemistry

OutlineOutlineMapping against NOAA Mission Goals

Personnel Changes

Highlights

New Building

Issues

Meeting NOAA Mission GoalsMeeting NOAA Mission Goals Involvement in and with NOAA Weather &

Water, Climate, and Ecosystem Goal Teams

Outreach & Education– Lecturing ESSIC & METO courses– Presenting seminars– Interacting with undergraduates

Development of Innovative Product Systems for Environmental Monitoring and Prediction– Integrated ecosystem of the Chesapeake Bay

watershed and estuary

NOAA Related ActivitiesNOAA Related Activities Research to Operations

– OLR, Precipitation

Product validation and analysis leading to user confidence and potential Climate Data Records– Products: Precipitation, Water Vapor, E/P

Satellite Services– NOAA Satellites: POES, GOES, NPOESS– Non-NOAA: EOS, TRMM, ADEOS-II

Innovative Product System Development– Initiate construction of a fully, integrated ecosystem

model of the Chesapeake Bay for near-real time applications and climate research

Supports NOAA 5 & 20-Year Vision

Personnel UpdatesPersonnel Updates Departing

– Jeff McCollum– Dave Salapata– Arief Sudradjat– Arnold Gruber

Arriving– CICS Coordinator– Nai-Yu Wang– Jiangtao Xu– Arnold Gruber– Matt Sapiano

Extended Sick Leave– Bruce Ramsay

HighlightsHighlightsContinued Advancement of OLR and

Precipitation Retrievals

Renewed Emphasis on the “Cs” in CICS both Cooperative and Climate

Initiation of Marine Ecosystem Efforts

Development of a CERES Outgoing Longwave Radiation Data Set Compatible With Current Operational OLR Data:

A Pre-NPOESS Risk Reduction Study for the CERES Instrument

Hai-Tien Lee (CICS/ESSIC-NOAA)Istvan Laszlo (NOAA/NESDIS)

Arnold Gruber (CICS/ESSIC-NOAA)Robert G. Ellingson (FSU)

Comparison of HIRS and AVHRR OLR to Broadband Measurement

• HIRS OLR (black) agrees very well with the broadband measurements from ERBE and CERES (pink) including the Nino3 / 4 regions.

• AVHRR OLR (green) has large biases in Nino3 region that is related to its insensitivity to water vapor variation. For Nino4 where OLR variation is mainly cloud driven, AVHRR OLR agrees better with the broadband measurements.

Nino3

Nino4

Development of Longwave Radiation Budget Productsfor GOES-R ABI and HES Instruments

Hai-Tien Lee (CICS/ESSIC-NOAA)Istvan Laszlo (NOAA/NESDIS)

GOES Can Provide Accurate OLR Diurnal Variation

• OLR has large diurnal variations, particularly over land. Insufficient temporal sampling by, e.g., polar orbiters, can cause large regional errors/biases in OLR monthly/daily mean.• Geostationary satellites with continuous and frequent observations could provide accurate estimate of OLR diurnal variation and therefore accurate monthly/daily means.

Sample GOES OLR product with 3-hourly observations.

Passive Microwave Coastline Passive Microwave Coastline Rainfall RetrievalsRainfall Retrievals

Jeff McCollum & Ralph FerraroJeff McCollum & Ralph Ferraro Problem has always plagued the microwave (MW) rainfall

retrieval community– Emissivity contrast between land (H) & ocean (L)– Large FOV’s of MW sensors (~10 km)– Varying FOV’s of MW sensors

“Mixed” pixels at and adjacent to coast Problem typically avoided by employing broad land/sea/coast

tags– Dealt with in 1990’s; never really revisited– Results in tagging potential coastal rain areas as “indeterminate”

Expanded our GPROF (Goddard Profiling Algorithm) over land retrieval work to re-evaluate and improve coastal retrievals– GPROF is used for TRMM/TMI, AMSR-E and SSM/I

McCollum and Ferraro, 2005: JAOT (in press)

• Improved coastline scheme developed through TMI and PR match-ups– Able to retrieve coastline

rain rates of > 2 mm/hr – Unable to improve

retrieval for rain rates <2 mm/hr

– Adopted for use in GPROF V2004 (TMI & AMSR-E) Rain Frequency

Latit

ude

Climate Analysis, Reanalysis and SynthesisClimate Analysis, Reanalysis and Synthesis NOAA’s commitment to GEOSS requires a leading NOAA’s commitment to GEOSS requires a leading

role in the analysis and synthesis of climate role in the analysis and synthesis of climate observationsobservations

CICS personnel are helping NOAA rise to this CICS personnel are helping NOAA rise to this challenge in several areaschallenge in several areas

Atmospheric Reanalysis:Atmospheric Reanalysis: Boulder workshop, CCSP development, planning for future Boulder workshop, CCSP development, planning for future

atmospheric reanalysesatmospheric reanalyses Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis:Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis:

Organization and Chairing of Team of Experts for ocean Organization and Chairing of Team of Experts for ocean analysis for NOAA’s Office of Climate Observationsanalysis for NOAA’s Office of Climate Observations

Synthesis/Analysis of Global Precipitation:Synthesis/Analysis of Global Precipitation: Planning/initial development for reanalysis of satellite era Planning/initial development for reanalysis of satellite era

global precipitation, reconstruction of longer time series, global precipitation, reconstruction of longer time series, evaluation of high resolution precipitation productsevaluation of high resolution precipitation products

Atmospheric ReanalysisAtmospheric Reanalysis Boulder workshop:Boulder workshop:

Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System: 18-20 August Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System: 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado2003, Boulder, Colorado

See workshop web site See workshop web site (http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/) for pdf (http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshopversion of report and background information from the workshop

U.S. needs to establish a National Program for Ongoing Analysis of the U.S. needs to establish a National Program for Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System to provide a retrospective and ongoing physically Climate System to provide a retrospective and ongoing physically consistent synthesis of earth observationsconsistent synthesis of earth observations

CCSP development:CCSP development: Science Working Group led by Siegfried Schubert/Glenn WhiteScience Working Group led by Siegfried Schubert/Glenn White Report available on same web siteReport available on same web site Prospectus being prepared now; September workshop plannedProspectus being prepared now; September workshop planned

Planning for future atmospheric reanalyses:Planning for future atmospheric reanalyses: Need for program planningNeed for program planning Need focus and leadership for NOAA, National analysis and synthesis Need focus and leadership for NOAA, National analysis and synthesis

activitiesactivities

Ocean Analysis/ReanalysisOcean Analysis/Reanalysis CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel

sponsored November 2004 workshop:sponsored November 2004 workshop: Identified requirements and role for ocean reanalyses Identified requirements and role for ocean reanalyses

and current state-of-the-artand current state-of-the-art Established process for fostering future effortsEstablished process for fostering future efforts

NOAA Office of Climate Observations identified NOAA Office of Climate Observations identified need for analysis effort to complement Ocean need for analysis effort to complement Ocean Observing System:Observing System: Encouraged development of NCEP web site (joint Encouraged development of NCEP web site (joint

EMC/CPC effort) to provide access to operational ocean EMC/CPC effort) to provide access to operational ocean analysis productsanalysis products

Established Team of Experts (Chaired by Phil Arkin) to Established Team of Experts (Chaired by Phil Arkin) to compare ocean observations and derived products with compare ocean observations and derived products with analyses and make recommendationsanalyses and make recommendations

Synthesis/Analysis of Global PrecipitationSynthesis/Analysis of Global Precipitation Precipitation observation and analysis is a long-standing focus of CICS Precipitation observation and analysis is a long-standing focus of CICS

(both GPCP and CMAP were associated)(both GPCP and CMAP were associated) GPCP Assessment as well as GEWEX and IGOS-P Integrated Global Water GPCP Assessment as well as GEWEX and IGOS-P Integrated Global Water

Cycle Theme have clarified the need for a coordinated program of analysis Cycle Theme have clarified the need for a coordinated program of analysis and development – CICS personnel are involved both technically and and development – CICS personnel are involved both technically and programmatically in all aspectsprogrammatically in all aspects

Satellite era reanalysis of global precipitation:Satellite era reanalysis of global precipitation: GPCP and CMAP, while excellent contributions, have issues associated with data GPCP and CMAP, while excellent contributions, have issues associated with data

homogeneity and analysis approachhomogeneity and analysis approach New global analysis of 1988 – present feasible and required; initial development New global analysis of 1988 – present feasible and required; initial development

underway at CICSunderway at CICS Extension of historical record:Extension of historical record:

Need for longer record to understand decadal variations and trendsNeed for longer record to understand decadal variations and trends CICS personnel leading an effort to reconstruct the 1950 – present periodCICS personnel leading an effort to reconstruct the 1950 – present period

Evaluation of high resolution precipitation products:Evaluation of high resolution precipitation products: Numerous high resolution (25 km/3 hourly) precipitation products now availableNumerous high resolution (25 km/3 hourly) precipitation products now available A thorough evaluation of these products is needed to plan for production of A thorough evaluation of these products is needed to plan for production of

extended recordextended record CICS is leading a Pilot Evaluation of High Resolution Precipitation Products CICS is leading a Pilot Evaluation of High Resolution Precipitation Products

(PEHRPP) (PEHRPP)

GPCP Interdecadal VariationsGPCP Interdecadal Variations First 4 Rotated EOFs of

annual average GPCP (57% of total variance).

First 3: ENSO or ENSO-like modes (51% of variance). Some interdecadal oscillations in the 3rd mode.

4th: interdecadal trend (6% of total variance).

Tendency for mostly increased precipitation over oceans, with decreases over much of the land.

NOAA/NCDC & CICS/ESSIC

Chesapeake Bay EcosystemMonitoring & Prediction

• Objective: Develop a fully integrated, ecological model of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed that assimilates in-situ and satellite-derived data by adapting and connecting existing models

• Purpose:– Near-Real Time Applications:

Nowcasting and forecasting of marine organisms, ocean health, and coastal conditions

– Climate Research: Estimating effect of climate change on the health of coastal marine ecosystems

• Partners: CoRP/SCSB, CICS, ESSIC and other UM and UMCES* departments

SeaWiFS true-color image of Mid-Atlantic Regionfrom April 12, 1998.

Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE

* University of Maryland Center of Environmental Science

Preliminary configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modeling System for the Chesapeake Bay watershed region

Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

With and Without Seasonal Dependency to Penetrating Radiation

NCEP and NESDIS Future Location

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

UMD Research Park, College Park(Early FY08)

Issues Issues (from 04 Retreat)(from 04 Retreat) Process by which NESDIS “needs” can be communicated to

CI’s in a more regular/formal manner

Process by which activities, algorithms, products, etc. of university partners can be brought to the attention of NESDIS in a more regular/formal manner

Personnel exchanges: propose that CI’s exchange information of recent and forthcoming Ph.D.s and thesis topics

OMB Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) treats research grants like performance based contracts. Where and how do we charge extra overhead required for this reporting?

NESDIS research not very visible in NOAA Research Review

IssuesIssues

CICS 5-Year Review and CI PolicyCICS 5-Year Review and CI Policy– Status ?Status ?CICS Reporting – Change to once / yearCICS Reporting – Change to once / yearConsolidate funding actions across Line Consolidate funding actions across Line Offices to facilitate grant submissionOffices to facilitate grant submissionKathy LeFevre retiring end of year – Kathy LeFevre retiring end of year – training of replacement(s) to avoid future training of replacement(s) to avoid future problemsproblemsEngagement with other NOAA (OAR) CIsEngagement with other NOAA (OAR) CIs

IssuesIssuesHow can we stimulate more cross - institute How can we stimulate more cross - institute collaborations?collaborations?– Allow short-term visits to CI's to stimulate Allow short-term visits to CI's to stimulate

collaborations, e.g. present a seminar, meet with collaborations, e.g. present a seminar, meet with scientists to discuss proposal strategy, write scientists to discuss proposal strategy, write proposals, etc.proposals, etc.

– Permit internships and sabbaticals for students and CI Permit internships and sabbaticals for students and CI scientists to work at another CI on a joint research scientists to work at another CI on a joint research project project

Staffing at SCSB – down to critical mass; require Staffing at SCSB – down to critical mass; require more to enhance and create new linkages in more to enhance and create new linkages in advance of new buildingadvance of new building– Branch Head replacementBranch Head replacement– New FTEs: land surface processes person, phys ocn, New FTEs: land surface processes person, phys ocn,

etcetc– Temporary assignments at SCSB / CICS (?) Temporary assignments at SCSB / CICS (?)

Climate Analysis, Reanalysis and SynthesisClimate Analysis, Reanalysis and Synthesis

NOAA’s commitment to GEOSS requires NOAA’s commitment to GEOSS requires a leading role in the analysis and a leading role in the analysis and synthesis of climate observationssynthesis of climate observations

CICS personnel are helping NOAA rise to CICS personnel are helping NOAA rise to this challenge in several areas, including:this challenge in several areas, including: Atmospheric ReanalysisAtmospheric Reanalysis Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis:Ocean Analysis/Reanalysis: Synthesis/Analysis of Global Precipitation:Synthesis/Analysis of Global Precipitation: