CICS California Institute for Climate Change 1 A Sustainable Energy Road Map: California Institute for Climate Change Shankar Sastry Dean of Engineering,

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CICS California Institute for Climate Change

A Sustainable Energy Road Map:California Institute for Climate

Change

Shankar Sastry

Dean of Engineering, University of California, Berkeley

With contributions from

Ellen Auriti, Gary Baldwin, Carl Blumstein, Robert Dynes, Alex Farrell, Michael Hanemann, Dan

Kammen, Calvin Moore, Costas Spanos, Paul Wright, John Zysman

University of California

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeThe Goal:100MMT CO2 E/yr in 2050

California GHG Emissions (MMTCO2E/yr)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical with electricity imports

Historical, no electricity imports

Forecast baseline emissions

Goals (with imports)

Soil N2O

ODS subst.

Aviation CO2

Resid. CO2

Comm. CO2

All other

Diesel CO2

In-State Elect. CO2

Imported Elect. CO2

Industrial CO2

Gasoline CO2

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeThe Process: identify and prioritize


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100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050





Step 1:Step 1:• Research Program aResearch Program a• Research Program b Research Program b • Research Program cResearch Program c Step 2Step 2

Step (n)Step (n)

Step (x)Step (x)

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeWhy A Road Map Now?

• Leadership is needed– Voluntary methods are inadequate to the challenge– CA must demonstrate it is possible to both control GHGs and have economic growth,

and its commitment to doing so.

• Meeting the 2020 goals can be accomplished at moderate costs– Energy efficiency strategies speed growth and raise employment– Existing policies (RPS, AB1493, etc.) will help significantly– Flexible, economically efficient policies complete the framework

• 2050 Goals will need new technology innovation and policy

• Two tasks, which require new, coordinated policies– Control GHG emissions to meet the 2020 goals efficiently

• Cap-and-trade for all feasible sectors• Sector-specific policies where monitoring/administration is too costly

– Support technological innovation and policy to meet the 2050 goals• “Innovation compatible” emission control policies• Policies to promote innovation directly

Source: Hanemann and Farrell (2006)

http://calclimate.berkeley.edu

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeSample Successful Roadmap

• ITRS (International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors) forecasts the technology improvements needed in the semiconductor industry over time so that we have ~2x performance increase every two years.– Many processes are used to create transistors (lithography, etching,

depositions…)

– All have to improve so that transistors get smaller, and more of them can fit on a chip.

– More transistors -> more performance!

• This is the underpinning of Moore’s Law

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeITRS Summary History

• Activities started in 1992

• Concept was very controversial among the research community

• It has been proven to be an extremely useful reference document

• It started as a Sematech (US only) activity, and it is now sponsored by the

– European Semiconductor Industry Association (ESIA)

– Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA)

– Korean Semiconductor Industry Association (KSIA)

– Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA)

– United States Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeITRS is developed by consensus

The Technical Working Groups (TWGs)consist of technical experts invited from a broad constituency, including Academia, Government and all relevant Industry sectors.

About 1000 experts participate each year through three major and dozens of smaller meetings.

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeThe ITRS is a “living” document

Annual “refresh”, with formal “Editions” on even years.Looking at all the past editions, the ITRS has been “conservative” in that goals are reached typically sooner than expected.

Annual “refresh”, with formal “Editions” on even years.Looking at all the past editions, the ITRS has been “conservative” in that goals are reached typically sooner than expected.

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Socolow/Pacala Wedges for Road Map1. Energy Efficiency

– Power-Aware Buildings– Fuel Efficiency– Sustainable Transportation

2. Alternative Energy– Alternative Fuels Bio fuels– Renewables

• Wind • Solar• Thermal• Thermoelectric• …

3. Nuclear Energy

4. Coal to Gas Substitution

5. Carbon Capture & Storage

1. Energy Efficiency– Power-Aware Buildings– Fuel Efficiency– Sustainable Transportation

2. Alternative Energy– Alternative Fuels Bio fuels– Renewables

• Wind • Solar• Thermal• Thermoelectric• …

3. Nuclear Energy

4. Coal to Gas Substitution

5. Carbon Capture & Storage

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Possible Research Roadmap to 100MMT CO2 E/yr in 2050


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300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050





Step 1:Step 1:• Research Program aResearch Program a• Research Program b Research Program b • Research Program cResearch Program c

Step 2Step 2

Step (n)Step (n)

Step (x)Step (x)

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

Emis

sion

s (M

tCO

2 yr-1

)

Emissions to the atmosphere

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Parallels to the Semiconductor Roadmap

Semiconductor Paradigm

Moore’s Law (proven tack record)

Controlling Greenhouse Emissions

Legislative Reduction Goals

Actual Goal:

2x performance/cost improvement every ~18 months

Actual Goal:

Improve Climate Impact Outlook (needs to be quantified further)

Symbolic Benchmark: Feature size Actual Benchmark: Global Carbon Footprint of CA

Actual contributors to achieving Goal (“slices”)

Feature size

Wafer size

Overall Equipment Efficiency

Facilities Cost of Ownership

“Time to yield”

Final yield

Ability to second source

Ability to manage IC design complexity

Interface Efficiency between fables and foundries

Actual Contributors to achieving Goal (slices)

– Conservation and Energy Efficiency• Buildings • Fuel Efficiency• Sustainable Transportation

– Renewable Energy• Solar• Wind• Thermoelectrics

– Batteries

– Nuclear Energy

– Coal to Gas substitution

– Carbon Sequestration

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeMultiple Axes for a Roadmap?

• Carbon is one axis for a roadmap

• Air Quality: Other Green House Gases are equally important

• Capital Outlays

• Job Growth/Creation

• Diversity of Energy Sources

• Innovation and Venture Activity

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeThe cost of cutting carbon in different ways

Marginal cost abatement, examples € / t CO2

Measures below the line have a negative abatement cost,

Meaning they save money and cut emissions

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+0

–

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100

150

200

Sources: Vattenfall Abatement potential, gigatonnes CO2 / year in 2030

0 5 10 15 20 25 27

Insulation improvements

Fuel-efficient commercial vehicles

Lighting systems

Fuel-efficient vehicles

Nuclear

Water heating

Cellulosic ethanol

Sugar-canebiofuel

Wind

Forestation

Solar

Carbon capture and storagewith enhanced oil recovery andnew coal-fired power stations

Carbon capture and storagein retrofitted coal-fired

power stations

Switch from coal to gas for power generation

E.g. Lighting accounts for 19% of the worlds electricity useStandard incandescent bulb costs 1 euro but uses 15 euros of electricity per year

CF bulbs cost 5 euros but uses only 3 euros per year; payback less than 1 year

The Vattenfall Philosophy

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeRoad Mapping Functions

• Consensus Building– Technical Working Groups (Industry, Research, Venture, Stake

Holders, Government)

– Workshops and Planning Meetings

– Technology + Policy (T + P) Recommendations and Time Lines

• Planning to Replan– Dynamic Road Map: On-going Process

– Continuous Assessment of Effectiveness of research and T + P recommendations

• Economic and Social Benefits– Investment Strategy for Venture, Industry, Stake Holders

– (Continuing) Education + Training for students + workforce

– “Trusted Advisor” role for policy makers

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CICS California Institute for Climate ChangeCONCLUDING REMARKS

• Road Map Synergistic with CA state Energy Action Plan

• Road Map to coordinate Research and Innovation Plans consistent with Policy Goals

• Road Map provides industry and venture community with preview of investment and hiring opportunities

• Education and Workforce Training

• Dynamic Process with Multiple Stake Holder Inputs

• Progress Assessment and Goal setting

• Potential for International Partnerships and Collaborations with IPCC,…

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CICS California Institute for Climate Change 1 A Sustainable Energy Road Map: California Institute for Climate Change Shankar Sastry Dean of Engineering,