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Food Fraud: Managing vulnerabilities in the food supply chain
Session 1
Monitoring threats and opportunities for the food industry
(Horizon Scanning)
Dr Harris SteinmanDO NOT C
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Food Fraud: Managing vulnerabilities in the food supply chain
Session 1: Monitoring threats and opportunities - Horizon Scanning
Session 2: 101 for VACCP – All you need to know to get you started
Session 3: How to approach analysis as a tool for managing vulnerabilities
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VACCPVulnerability Assessment and Critical
Control Point
TACCPThreat
Assessment and Critical Control
Points
HACCPHazard Analysis
and Critical Control Point
Horizon Scanning
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• Shifting from risk to vulnerability
• Risk is something that has occurred before, will occur again
• Vulnerability is the exposure to a risk, whether it’s happened before or not
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Paradigm shifted from reactionary to preventative (predictive) approaches
Need to predict important medium to long-term issues for effective preventative
actions
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Horizon scanning is a vital tool that should be used to gather information about how the future is going to affect your business
Fiona Lickorish – Cranfield University
Horizon scanning is actually a method of Foresight methodologies
Foresight methodologies seek to gather data and make sense of it so that people can think in different and new ways about the future.
Setting Up a Horizon Scanning System: A U.S. Federal Agency Example. World Futures Review 2018. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1946756717749613
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What is horizon scanning?
FAO defines HS as
“a specific foresight methodology that utilises various steps to
identify issues at the edge of current thinking that may have
significant impact in the medium to long term future”
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
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What is horizon scanning?
Horizon scanning involves the gathering of data and information across
a wide range of sources and domains, e.g.
• Social
• Technological
• Economic
• Environmental, e.g. climate change
• Political
• Legal
• Ethical, i.e. STEEPLE)
The handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008). Georghiou, L., Cassingena Harper, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Popper, R. (eds.) Edward Elgar Publ. Limited, Cheltenham, Uk, 1–427 pp.
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Food Surveillance
Strategy
Regulatory Sampling
DataResearch
and Surveys
Industry Data
Internet and Social Media
Analytics
Media Reports
International food alerts
Market research
Consumer surveys and
citizen engagement
Regulatory enforcement
data
Tip-offs, consumer complaints and whistle
blowing
Environmental Monitoring
Data
Clinical surveillance
data
Alba, I. (2017). A food surveillance strategy for Scotland. Food Standards Scotland. Retrieved from https://consult.foodstandards.gov.scot/2013-food-protection-science-and-surveillance/a-food-surveillance-strategy-for-scotland/
Academic
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Data and information sources
Scientific data
Regulatory compliance and incidents reported
Trends in public health
Market signals
Internet and social media analytics
Global issues e.g. environmental changes, new technologies
Intelligence gathered - Government
Alba, I. (2017). A food surveillance strategy for Scotland. Food Standards Scotland. Retrieved from https://consult.foodstandards.gov.scot/2013-food-protection-science-and-surveillance/a-food-surveillance-strategy-for-scotland/
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Effective horizon scanning framework requires the capability
➢ Of identifying emerging risks and vulnerabilities across the whole
supply chain
➢ To interpret data and evidence from a diverse range of sources
(scientific, economic, investigative)
Alba, I. (2017). A food surveillance strategy for Scotland. Food Standards Scotland. Retrieved from https://consult.foodstandards.gov.scot/2013-food-protection-science-and-surveillance/a-food-surveillance-strategy-for-scotland/
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Constraints
Horizon scanning won’t give answers but give more questions
Not a risk assessment exercise but a risk prioritisation exercise
Knowing what it can’t do is just as important as knowing what it can
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Limitations
Number of gaps in the data and information sources accessible
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmsctech/703/703.pdf
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Limitations
Local Authorities/
Trading StandardsConsumers FSA DEFRA SEPA Marine Scotland
Police ScotlandScottish Government Research
Providers*Health Protection
Scotland Reference LaboratoriesAcademic Research
Community
Public Analysts Food IndustryScientific Advisory
CommitteesEuropean Commission
International Food Regulators
* http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Research/About/EBAR/research-providers
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Limitations
Expertise to support analysis and interpretation needed to provide
a fully comprehensive picture
Strengths in networks, data collection, analysis and interpretation
Always be a subjective element
Short term | Mid term | Long term
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmsctech/703/703.pdf
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The BRC considers horizon scanning to be integral to the
understanding of risks to food authenticity
Horizon scanning for food fraud is a requirement of BRC
Issue 7 and BRC Issue 8 although the words ‘horizon
scanning’ themselves do not appear in the standards
BRC Issue 8 (Food safety standards published by the British Retail Consortium)
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The relevant clause is 5.4.1:
“The company shall have processes in place to access information on
historical and developing threats to the supply chain which may present
a risk of adulteration or substitution of raw materials. Such information
may come from trade associations, government sources, private
resource centres.”
BRC Issue 8 (Food safety standards published by the British Retail Consortium)
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FAO Horizon Scanning Survey 2013
Key interviews and internal questionnaire, identified:
Over 40 emerging issues/topics
Almost 30 drivers of change related to the above
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
2013
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• Surveillance related important/emerging issues (animal, plant and
food health; climate change monitoring) (11)
• Production related important/emerging issues (12)
• Socio-economical related emerging issues (14)
• Environment related emerging issues (7)
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
APPENDIX 5: Over 40 emerging issues/topics: 4 themes
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2. Production related emerging issues
12. Food traceability (food scares, scandals)
13. Food authenticity/adulteration
14. Bioinformatics
15. Food production sustainability
16. Food security
17. Increase in antibiotic residues in aquaculture products
18. Illegal, Unreported, Unregulated (IUU) fishing and its impact on marine resources
19. Impact of rules for responsible fisheries
20. Eradication of certain fish species
21. Small scale fishery
22. Sustainability of forest management
23. Impact of demands for more forest conservation (taking areas out of production)
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
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4. Environment related emerging issues
38. Impact of climate change on household revenue
39. Renewable energy
40. Climate change impact on crop production
41. Impact of climate change on food safety: i.e. increase of biotoxins
42. Vulnerable marine eco-systems
43. Ecological disasters
44. Identification of Climate Change adaptation and mitigation strategies to increase agri-production
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
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APPENDIX 6: 29 Drivers of Change: 4 themes
• Market related drivers (9)
• Production related drivers (4)
• Environment related drivers (8)
• Sociological aspect related drivers (8)
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
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3. Environment Related Drivers
14. Climate variations (wind, humidity, temperature, precipitation)
15. Climate change
16. Climate change land environment related drivers (carbon emissions, greenhouse gas inventory, land surface temperature, and meteorological information i.e. rainfall, drought, solar energy etc.)
17. Climate change aquatic environment related drivers (rainfall, water surface T, lake level rise, acidification of ocean etc.)
18. Deforestation
19. Natural catastrophe
20. Forest/ environmental encroachment (and hot spots)
21. Biodiversity (cacao – chocolate)
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
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Some of “drivers of change”
Globalisation of trade
Climate change
New technologies
Scientific progress
Urbanisation
Public attention to food safety
FAO. Horizon Scanning and Foresight. An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety. Rome, 22-25 October, 2013
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Examples
Vanilla:
The price of vanilla is soaring due to poor harvests in Madagascar and
Indonesia
Dried Fruit:
Significant price decline in Turkish sultanas and raisins blamed on high
production levels
https://www.foodforensics.co.uk/services/risk-newsletter
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Examples
Olive oil:
Olive oil production in the EU up 2.1%. Estimation of consumption suggests
an increase of 3.2%.
Drought – Cumin adulteration
China – heavy metal contamination of crops from surrounding factories
Climate change is likely to reduce coffee
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Tools
FoodChainID Horizon Scan - subscription service - provides alerts on adulteration, fraud, food safety contamination events
Fera HorizonScan - monitors global food integrity issues
Decernis (UPS*) - comprehensive database of food fraud - searched by food type and by adulterant type. Information about analytical methods
INFOSAN
Government IT platforms e.g., UK Food Surveillance System (UKFSS)
*developed and formerly operated by the US Pharmacopeial Convention (UPS)
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Food Forensics - monthly newsletter
Food Fraud Advisors’ Food Fraud Risk Information Database
EMAlert
The Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)
US FDA - searchable list of food recalls and food safety alerts
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List of Adulterated Ingredients
Out of 1000s of ingredients - some repeat offenders
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Ingredient Ingredient Synonyms AdulterantsApple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Water
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Synthetic Juice (Containing Inverted Beet Sugar and D,L-Malic
Acid)
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Invert Sugar Syrup , Prune Juice , Raisin Juice , Pineapple
Juice , High-Fructose Corn Syrup , Pear Juice , Fig
Juice , White Grape Juice
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Partially Inverted Cane Sugar Syrup , High-Fructose Corn
Syrup , Beet Sugar , Sugar Mixture
(60%Fructose:25%Glucose:15%Sucrose)
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Invert Beet Sugar Syrup , Invert Cane Sugar Syrup
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
High-Fructose Corn Syrup , High-Fructose Inulin Syrup
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
High-Fructose Corn Syrup , Sugar Mixture
(60%Fructose:25%Glucose:15%Sucrose)
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Invert Sugar Syrup , High-Fructose Corn Syrup
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Malic Acid , Sugar , Water
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Caramel Color , Cane Sugar Syrup , Malic Acid , Beet
Sugar , Corn Syrup , Water , Flavor (Unspecified)
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Pear Juice
Apple Juice Apple Fruit Juice, Malus domestica Fruit
Juice
Malic Acid
Apple Juice (Freshly Pressed) Sugar Mixture (Fructose, Glucose, Sucrose) , Water , Apple
Juice (from Concentrate)
Black Pepper Oleoresin Piper nigrum Oleoresin Papaya Seed Oil
Coffee (Arabica) Coffea arabica L., Mountain Coffee Coffee (Robusta)
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Example of Types of adulterants
• Sodium Hydroxide
• Urea
• Ammonium
Nitrate
• Castor Oil
• Cyanuric Acid
• Detergent
• Dicyandiamide
• Maltodextrin
• Maltose
• Melamine
• Formaldehyde
• Glucose
• Hydrogen
Peroxide
• Oil (Unspecified,
Refined)
• Vegetable oil
• Water
• Whey Protein
• Synthetic Milk
• Sucrose Syrup
• Sugar
• Starch
(Unspecified)
• Soybean Oil
• Soy Milk
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Geographic indicators
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Conclusion
The food control paradigm has shifted from reactionary to preventative
(predictive) approaches
Effective horizon scanning framework requires the capability
➢ of identifying emerging risks and vulnerabilities across the whole
supply chain
➢ to interpret data and evidence from a diverse range of sources
(scientific, economic, investigative)
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