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Invitation to Research

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH TECHNIQUES

Roger Clarke, Xamax Consultancy, CanberraVisiting Professor, CSIS, Uni of Hong Kong

Visiting Fellow, Australian National University

http://www.anu.edu.au/people/Roger.Clarke/......Res /52-Sci.ppt

ebs, 16-20 January 2003

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The Conventional Scientific Research Process

Abstract World

Real World

Hypotheses

ResearchDesign

Axioms

DeductiveLogic

Inferences

THEORYThe Research Results

provide feedback to the Theory

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Conventional, Scientific Research Key Features

• Investigates Research Questions within a Domain

• Is driven by theories that:• are founded on axioms• comprise trees of deductive inference• generate refutable Hypotheses

• Is designed to test the Hypotheses• Exercises control over confounding variables• Leads to theory extension or refinement

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Conventional Scientific Research

Meta-Physical Assumptions

• There is a Real World• The phenomena in that Real World are stable• Data gathered by observing the Real World are

factual, truthful and unambiguous• The domain of study is not affected by either

the research, or the researcher• The language in which Theory is expressed is

unambiguous, and contains no value judgements

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Conventional Scientific Research

Data Assumptions

• Data must be Objective• Objective means relatively proximate to Truth• Subjective means relatively distant from

Truth• The notion of Objectivity presumes:

• the existence of Truth• its accessibility by humans

• Objective Data is Quantified Data,i.e. expressed in terms that place it on a scale

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Conventional Scientific Research

Process Assumptions• Research projects are driven by Theories• Theories comprise Axioms that are unchanging• Inferences from Theory are operationalised as

explicit and unambiguous Hypotheses• Results from empirical tests are replicable• Most results confirm or articulate the Theory• Gradually, Anomalies accumulate• A more general Theory is formulated, the Anomalies are

accommodated, and a ‘Paradigm Shift’ occurs

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Conventional Scientific Research

Corollaries

• Rigour is paramount, in order to build theory• Because the primary purpose is Rigour,

Relevance has to be a secondary consideration

• Unstable phenomena are highly inconvenient• Perturbable phenomena are too

• Anomaly accumulation should be gradual

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Conventional Scientific Research

Corollaries

• A Theory may draw on Reference Disciplines, but it relates to Phenomena in a particular Domain, and is intended to be understood within a particular Discipline

• Testing of Ad hoc Inferences and Hypotheses (i.e. those that are not derived from some more or less formally expressed Theory) does not constitute Scientific Research

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Scientific Research Techniques A Taxonomy (3+5)

• Laboratory Experimentation• Field Experimentation and

Quasi-Experimental Designs• Forecasting• ...

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Laboratory Experimentation

• An artificial environment, designed to:• capture a Relevant Real-World System• establish a Model of a Real-World

Systemsufficiently similar to it that its behaviour will enable inferences to be drawn about the behaviour of the Real-World System under similar circumstances

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Experimental Method

• Independent (Environmental) Variables are controlled, or isolated (to avoid Confounding Variables)

• One or more (Strategic) Variables is manipulated

• Dependent Variables (Outcomes) are measured• The Results are compared with Hypotheses that

were generated by inference from some relevant Theory

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Field Experimentation and Quasi-Experimentation Designs

• Opportunities are sought in the Real Worldto isolate and control for confounding variables

• Method:• Observe a relevant Real-World System• Contrive controls over Environmental

Variables• Manipulate one Independent Variable• Measure the Dependent Variable(s)

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Forecasting

• Projection / Extrapolation of future datafrom trends inherent in past data

• Can cope with regular variations (daily, seasonal), e.g. using smoothing techniques

• Can discover the existence of relationshipsthrough regression techniques

• Implicitly assumes all otherEnvironmental Variables are fixed

• Embodies no sense of systemic reasoning