CORDEX: The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment

W. J. Gutowski, Jr. Iowa State University

F. Giorgi

Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics

Details at: http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/ (Search: “WCRP CORDEX climate”)

COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment CORDEX

•  CORDEX goals & organization •  Update on metrics •  ICRC-2013: Main messages •  CORDEX II?

General Aims and Plans for WCRP CORDEX

Provide a set of regional climate scenarios covering the period 1950-2100, for the majority of the populated land-regions of the globe. Make these data sets readily available and useable to the impact and adaptation communities. Provide a generalized framework for testing and applying regional climate models and downscaling techniques for both the recent past and future scenarios. Foster coordination between regional downscaling efforts around the world and encourage participation in the downscaling process of local scientists/organizations

CORDEX Science Advisory Team Region/Specialty

Filippo Giorgi (co-chair)

Earth System Physics Section The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics - Trieste, ITALY

JSC, Med-COR

William Gutowski (co-chair)

Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University - Ames, Iowa, USA

North America

Silvina Solman Universidad de Buenos Aires Fac. Ciencias Exactas Y Nat.- Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA

South America

R. Krishnan Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology - Pune, INDIA

South Asia

Won-Tae Kwon National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration - Seoul, REPUBLIC OF KOREA

East Asia

Isabelle Anguelovski

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona – Barcelona, SPAIN VIA

Chris Lennard University of Cape Town – Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA

Africa

Grigory Nikulin SMHI, Rossby Center – Norrköping, SWEDEN Data Management

Tannecia Stephenson University of West Indies – JAMAICA, TRINIDAD & TOBAGO, BARBADOS

Statistical Downscaling Central America

Bertrand Timbal Bureau of Meteorology – Melbourne, AUSTRALIA Statistical Downscaling

WCRP Working Group on Regional Climate (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/regional-climate)

Bruce Hewitson, CSAG/Univ of Cape Town (Co-Chair) Clare Goodess, University of East Anglia (Co-Chair)

WCRP Modeling Advisory Council (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/WMAC.shtml)

John Mitchell, UK Met Office ( Co-chair) Christian Jacob, Monash University (Co-chair)

CORDEX Phase I experiment design

Model Evaluation Framework

Climate Projection Framework

ERA-Interim LBC 1989-2007

Multiple AOGCMs

RCP4.5, RCP8.5 1951-2100 or 1980-2050

Decadal predictions 1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035

Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa) 50 km grid spacing

Regional Analysis Regional Databanks

AMIP- like

CMIP- like

CORDEX Metrics: Update

Two categories

A.  Basic assessment common to all regions to provide a baseline

B. Region-targeted assessment to be determined by regional activities

VIA ?

VIA input

Goals 1. Model performance versus variety of observations 2. Succinct 3.  Side-by-side comparison of models on same graph

ERA-Interim RCMs

RCMs vs.

ERA-Interim

vs. CRU

Developing a

Pan-CORDEX

View

1 – Africa (10) 2 – Europe (11) 3 – North America (4) 4 – South America (7) 5 – South Asia (6)

Africa North America

(ERA-Driven 1991-2007)

ERA-Interim RCMs

ERA-Interim RCMs

CORDEX JJA Ensemble Mean Precipitation CORDEX DJF Ensemble Mean Precipitation

Developing a

Pan-CORDEX

View

RCMs vs.

ERA-Interim

vs. CRU

(ERA-Driven 1991-2007)

The Conference brought together a large international community of regional climate scientists (> 500) to present and discuss results from WCRP regional climate studies, with a particular emphasis on the CORDEX initiative. 4 Nov: High-Level Session

•  High-Level Session: key findings from the IPCC AR5 WGI: The Physical Science Basis •  Stakeholder Dialogue: regional climate information for decision-makers •  Side meeting with EU Parliament members

5-7 Nov: Science Segment •  Key results from Regional Climate Research and Phase I of the CORDEX project

8 Nov: Regional Side Meetings

Some outcomes of the ICRC-CORDEX 2013 Conference

•  Need mechanisms for better coordination across all CORDEX activities

•  More process-based analysis of the results, especially concerning added value & signal/noise

•  Development of coupled regional ESMs

•  Interaction with users and use of the data

Some outcomes of the ICRC-CORDEX 2013 Conference

•  Need mechanisms for better coordination across all CORDEX activities

•  More process-based analysis of the results, especially concerning added value & signal/noise

•  Development of coupled regional ESMs

•  Interaction with users and use of the data •  Revisit CORDEX domains and approval steps for

CORDEX domains •  Integration of statistical downscaling activities •  CORDEX II ?

Defining Regions

Initial goals were to •  cover all major land masses + Arctic •  build on prior experiences

New regions have been proposed and accepted. Smaller pilot regions are under consideration. What should be regions’ design criteria for including in CORDEX?

Defining Regions

Possible criteria (from G.N. & W.G)

•  Regional needs (cf. MENA-CORDEX & RICCAR) •  Number of groups involved •  Sensitivity to domain boundaries (e.g., teleconnections, storm tracks) •  Key mesoscale or smaller processes (e.g., convective storms, fronts) •  Potential for added value by downscaling •  Resolution

ESD Workshop 1 26-27 Sept 2013 - ICTP, Trieste, Italy

- 19 invited participants + 6 additional - from 14 countries (6 continents)

ESD Workshop 1 Directions (a) experimental design (b) test and training datasets, and (c) metrics for evaluating ESD approaches (alone and versus RCMs).

CORDEX II ? •  The 50 km resolution is often not considered adequate

for impacts or state-of-the-art for RCMs –  Typical examples: SE Asia, Europe

•  Increase the resolution for the current domains (25 km) ? –  Would be very expensive but it would allow direct comparison

with CORDEX I runs •  Work with smaller domains at high resolution (~10 km) ?

–  Perhaps more doable for a larger number of group –  Problem of domain selection –  Do we still aim to cover ALL land regions?

CORDEX II ? •  Emerging needs to be addressed by CORDEX II

–  Added value and resolution needs –  Multiple methods (e.g. RCMs, SD) –  Detailed process based analysis –  Use of high quality/resolution observation datasets –  Targeted experiments to address specific issues (land-use,

clouds, aerosols, coupling) –  Flagship cases for data use in VIA applications –  Facilitate interactions with other WCRP programs (GEWEX) –  Engage social scientists in many ways

CORDEX II? •  Emerging needs to be addressed by CORDEX II

–  Added value and resolution needs –  Multiple methods (e.g. RCMs, SD) –  Detailed process based analysis –  Use of high quality/resolution observation datasets –  Targeted experiments to address specific issues (land-use,

clouds, aerosols, coupling) –  Flagship cases for data use in VIA applications –  Facilitate interactions with other WCRP programs (GEWEX) –  Engage social scientists in many ways

•  Develop a small number of pilot regional case studies to address these issues

Thank You!

CESM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy e

Coordinated Analysis

Development Productivity Land Use Change

Cost of land expansion Input substitution Demand response International trade

Yield response to investment

Policies Management Climate/CO2

Emissions, Forcing

Climate Change

Land cover Vegetation dynamics BGC Albedo Hydrologic response

Regional climate dynamics

Climate sensitivity

Latin America Modeling Project (LAMP)

Additional Slides

WCRP Working Group on Regional Climate (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/regional-climate)

Bruce Hewitson, CSAG/Univ of Cape Town (Co-Chair) Clare Goodess, Univ of E Anglia (Co-Chair) Tim Carter, Finland Environment Institute David Behar, San Francisco Public Utility (U.S.A.) Seita Emori, National Inst. for Environmental Studies (Japan) Kendra Gotango, Ateneo de Manila University (Phillippines) Fernanda Zermoglio, Sector Azul (Chile) Igor Shkolnik, Dynamic Meteorology Dept. (Russia) Willem Landeman, Simon Mason Jan Polcher Annette Rinke Filippo Giorgi, CORDEX SAT Co-Chair (Italy) William Gutowski, CORDEX SAT Co-Chair (U.S.A)

Meetings - Vienna (April 2013) & Montevideo (March 2014)

Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)!~ Regions ~!

NARCCAP

CLARIS

ENSEMBLES RMIP

(C. Jones, 2009)

Two new CORDEX domains are being proposed

MENA Domain

South East Asia Domain

Further Issues Ø  Needed: Mechanism for better coordination across

activities in the different CORDEX domains and more generally across the wider CORDEX community

Ø  Better communication across the CORDEX community (ongoing)

Ø  Improvement in the CORDEX web-site management (ongoing)

Ø  Mechanism for approving new CORDEX domains and activities

Ø  Search for some core funding (CORDEX activities currently on voluntary basis)

ICRC-CORDEX 2013 conference •  Venue and dates: Brussels, 4-7 November 2013 •  Two segments

–  Day 1: High level IPCC segment –  Day 2-4: Scientific conference

•  Expected attendance –  Over 500 registrations –  ~470 abstracts submitted

•  Plenary + Poster sessions+ side focused meetings –  CORDEX progress/achievements –  Issues in dynamical and statistical downscaling –  Application to IAV work –  Future developments/directions

•  Co-sponsorship by the EU Com. and other agencies

CORDEX Data Management •  CORDEX output will use the Earth System Grid

(ESG), like CMIP5 •  Substantial development of output formatting,

metadata, file structure, etc. •  New: file/format compliancy checker prior to data

upload

•  CORDEX nodes planned at BADC, DKRZ, DMI, SMHI, ENEA (MedCORDEX), UCT, IITM, KMA

•  Current testing of the system by SMHI

Progress in Various Regions (Examples) 1. Africa (10 RCMs)

- Initial focus - Workshops promoting analyses by Africans

2. Euro-CORDEX (9 distinct RCMs + variants)

- Runs at 0.44˚, 0.22˚ and (in process) 0.11˚ 3. South America (7 RCMs)

- Built off CLARIS - Publications submitted

4. CORDEX South Asia

- Workshop Feb 2012 - Workshop Aug 2013

Progress in Various Regions (Examples) 5. CORDEX Arctic (~ 5 RCMs)

- Workshop March 2012 - Mtg. @ WCRP CORDEX Brussels (Nov 2103)

6. Med-CORDEX (9 RCMs, 12 A-O RCMs)

- Add to original regions - Built off funded program

7. East Asia (7 RCMs)

- Built partly off APN RMIP program - Workshops: Sep 2011, Nov 2012, Brussels 2013

Plus: CORDEX Statistical Downscaling Workshop

- ICTP Trieste, 26-27 September 2013

North America 1. UQAM (René Laprise) – 0.44˚

1989 – 2008: ERA-Interim 1950 – 2100: CanESM & MPI GCMs Test runs at 0.11˚

2. Météo-France (Philippe Lucas-Picher) – 0.5˚

1989 – 2008: ERA-Interim M-Fr may do GCM-driven case(s)

3. Canadian Climate Center, CCCma – 0.44˚ and 0.22˚

- CanESM2 driving CanRCM4

4. Related activities at UK Met Office, Argonne, Univ. AZ, Iowa State, NASA JPL

Planning workshop for U.S. program in development, with support from U.S. Department of Energy (and potentially other U.S. federal agencies).

ERA-Interim RCMs

Developing a

Pan-CORDEX

View

1 – Africa (10) 2 – Europe (11) 3 – North America (4) 4 – South America (7) 5 – South Asia (6)

Africa North America

RCMs vs.

ERA-Interim

vs. CRU

(ERA-Driven 1991-2007)

ERA-Interim RCMs

Developing a

Pan-CORDEX

View

1 – Africa (10) 2 – Europe (11) 3 – North America (4) 4 – South America (7) 5 – South Asia (6)

CORDEX DJF Ensemble Mean Precipitation RCMs vs.

ERA-Interim

vs. CRU

(ERA-Driven 1991-2007) Africa

South America South Asia

ERA-Interim RCMs

Developing a

Pan-CORDEX

View

1 – Africa (10) 2 – Europe (11) 3 – North America (4) 4 – South America (7) 5 – South Asia (6)

CORDEX JJA Ensemble Mean Precipitation RCMs vs.

ERA-Interim

vs. CRU

(ERA-Driven 1991-2007)

Africa South America South Asia

ERA-Interim Africa CORDEX multi-RCM matrix

(C. Jones, 2012)

Figure 2: Seasonal mean temperature for the ensemble of observations (left) and RCMs ensemble (center). Bias between ensemble of observations and model ensemble (right) for JJA (top) and DJF (bottom). Units are ºC.

Figure 2: Seasonal mean temperature for the ensemble of observations (left) and RCMs ensemble (center). Bias between ensemble of observations and model ensemble (right) for JJA (top) and DJF (bottom). Units are ºC.

Temperature Bias (ºC)

JJA DJF

Figure 3: Same as Fig. 2 but for precipitation. Units are mm/month.

Figure 3: Same as Fig. 2 but for precipitation. Units are mm/month.

Precipitation Bias (mm/month)

JJA DJF

(Solman et al., 2012 - submitted)

South America

Ensemble vs. (CRU & UDEL) Ensemble vs. (GPCC, CRU, UDEL & CPC)

7 RCMs using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (1990-2008)

-3 -1 +1 +3 -3 -1 +1 +3 -100 -20 20 100 -100 -20 20 100

Looking to the Future: CORDEX 2? ­ Assess much more rigorously the added value of

downscaling. ­  Signal versus “noise” as a function of scale (temporal/spatial) ­  Quantification of confidence levels

­ Perform cross comparison of methods: RCMs, statistical downscaling, high-resolution GCMs (stretched & uniform grids), hybrid approaches.

­ Produce more rigorously defined regions: VAMOS can help guide this.

­ Develop a co-learning community among all participants. •  More guidance in design from VIA community and from operational

practitioners (e.g., water managers, health officials, etc.) •  User-oriented diagnostic and graphic tools