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COTTON REPORT Kai Hughes Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee
Cotton Production & Trade Trends
International Cotton Advisory Committee
www.icac.org
million hectares US cts/lb
20
25
30
35
40
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16
Cotlook A Index (previous season)
Area
WORLD COTTON AREA AND PRICES
www.icac.org
0
4
8
12
16
20
Maize Soybean Rice Sugar Sorghum
2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017
ratio
PRICE OF COTTON VS. COMPETING CROPS AT PLANTING TIME N. HEMISPHERE (2010-2017)*
*World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet)
www.icac.org
million hectares kg/ha
0
300
600
900
0
10
20
30
40
06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
N. Hemisphere S. Hemisphere Yield
WORLD COTTON AREA AND YIELD
www.icac.org
kg/ha
400
550
700
850
86/87 91/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17
571
772
WORLD AVERAGE YIELD (rainfed + irrigated)
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400
500
600
700
800
900
95
/96
97
/98
99
/00
01
/02
03
/04
05
/06
07
/08
09
/10
11
/12
13
/14
15
/16
17
/18
19
/20
21
/22
kg/ha
WORLD COTTON YIELDS REMAIN STAGNANT SINCE 2005/06
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India 24%
China 21%
US 18%
Pakistan 8%
Brazil 6%
Fr. Africa 5%
Uzbek. 3%
Turkey 3%
Australia 4% ROW
8%
COTTON PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
6 M India is since 2015/16, the world’s
largest producer of cotton
2017/18: 25.6 Million tons
www.icac.org million tons
6.03
5.25
4.60
1.95
1.57
1.19
0.98
0.83
0.80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
India
China
USA
Pakistan
Brazil
Fr. Africa
Australia
Turkey
Uzbekistan
16/17
17/18
CHANGES IN WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION
www.icac.org million tons
WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION
5.3
2.2
1.5
1.4
1.3
0.7
0.8
0.7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
India
Pakistan
Turkey
Bangladesh
Vietnam
USA
Brazil
Indonesia15/16
16/17
17/18China 32%
India 21%
Pakistan 9%
Turkey 6%
Bangladesh 6%
Vietnam 5%
Brazil 3%
Indonesia 3%
USA 3% ROW
12%
2017/18: 25.2 Million tons
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Million tons
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16
Consumption Share
Share
CHINA COTTON CONSUMPTION
www.icac.org million tons
WORLD COTTON EXPORTS
3.1
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
0 1 2 3 4
USA
Fr. Africa
India
Australia
Brazil
Uzbekistan
16/17
17/18 40% The U.S remains the world’s
largest exporter of cotton
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16
USA
India
Fr. Africa
Brazil
EXPORTS: SHARE OF WORLD TOTAL
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COTTON IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Bangladesh Vietnam China Indonesia Turkey
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
million tons
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SHARE OF WORLD IMPORTS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16
Rest of Asia
China
www.icac.org
WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION AND MILL USE
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16
Production
Mill Use
million tons
Accumulated Surplus Through 14/15:
13.8 million tons
Stock Reduction in 15/16 and 16/17:
4.4 million tons
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ESTIMATED SIZE OF CHINA NATIONAL RESERVE
13.0
8.4
6.4
Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
million tons
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WORLD ENDING STOCKS
0
5
10
15
20
25
00
/01
04
/05
08
/09
12
/13
16
/17
World-less China China
million tons
www.icac.org
COTLOOK A INDEX
Season-average (US cents/lb)
83
69
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
74/75 84/85 94/95 04/05 14/15
www.icac.org
ASSISTANCE TO COTTON PRODUCTION
Direct support to production
Border protection
Crop insurance subsidies
Minimum support price mechanisms
Input subsidies
Transportation subsidies
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ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
1.5
4.7
7.4 6.5
10.7
7.4
4.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16
Billion US$
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ASSISTANCE TO COTTON AND PRICES
1.65
1.00
0.88
0.91
0.71
0.7
0.83
0.4
1.1
1.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16
Billion US$ A Index (US$/lb)
www.icac.org
WORLD COTTON PRODUCTION UNDER ASSISTANCE
0
10
20
30
40
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16
Without Assistance With Assistance
76%
71% 70%
Average with Assistance: 55%
83%
48%
Million tons
WORLD TEXTILE FIBRE DEMAND (END-USE)
www.icac.org
www.icac.org
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cotton Wool Non-Cellulosic Cellulosic
WORLD CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR TEXTILE FIBRES Million tons
www.icac.org
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION REMAINS BELOW PEAK
Million tons
3.0
7.5 8.2
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POPULATION Billions
WORLD TEXTILE FIBER CONSUMPTION
Million tons 1
96
0
20
16
20
25
15.2
90.4
115.7
19
60
20
16
20
25
TEXTILE FIBER CONSUMPTION Kgs per capita
5.1
12.1
14.1
19
60
20
16
20
25
3.4
3.3
3.2
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19
60
20
16
20
25
1.1
8.7
10.9
19
60
20
16
20
25
WORLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA Kilograms
CHEMICAL FIBERS COTTON
www.icac.org
COTTON’S MARKET SHARE Million tons Market Share (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
www.icac.org
TEXTILE FIBRE CONSUMPTION BY REGION END-USE
Million tons
0
20
40
60
801
96
0
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
C. and E. Europe &former USSR
1960 Develo
ping Countri
es 32%
Developed
Countries
51%
C. and E.
Europe &
form…
Developing
Countries
65%
Developed
Countries
31%
C. and E.
Europe &
form…
2016
www.icac.org
WORLD POPULATION Billions
0
2
4
6
8
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
C. and E. Europe & formerUSSR
Africa Asia M.E & Europe
L.A & Caribbean
2017 1.3 4.0 0.3 0.6
2025 1.5 4.2 0.4 0.7
2050 2.5 4.6 0.5 0.8
Change in Population (Billions)
www.icac.org
0
20
40
60
80
Polyester Others
Million tons
WORLD CHEMICAL FIBER YARN PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE
www.icac.org
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
19
97
20
03
20
09
20
15
POLYESTER FIBRE PRODUCTION GROWTH RATES
www.icac.org
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Filament Staple
GLOBAL POLYESTER PRODUCTION BY FIBRE TYPE Million tons
8%CAGR
Polyester Filament production has nearly tripled since 2002.
www.icac.org
19.3
2.5 1.3 1.8 1.2
37.3
4.8 1.4 1.4 1.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2007 2016
TOP 5 POLYESTER PRODUCING COUNTRIES
Million tons
www.icac.org
CHINA’S SHARE OF GLOBAL CHEMICAL FIBRE YARN PRODUCTION
9%
[VALUE…
24%
[VALUE…
62%
[VALUE… 69
%
[VALUE…
1990 2000
2010 2016
www.icac.org
Million tons
1.6
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1
3.5
0.4 0.6 0.5
0.1
0
1
2
3
4
China Western Europe India Indonesia Thailand
2007 2016
LEADING PRODUCERS OF CELLULOSIC FIBRE
• Growth in global cotton consumption has been limited by
competition with polyester, and by consumer’s changing
attitude and behavior towards less formal fashion styles. (Yoga
Pants, leggings, Athleisure wear)
• Cotton promotion, innovation, application and research must
continue in order to change consumers preferences and to
improve the technical performance of cotton vis-à-vis polyester.
• High cotton prices benefit cotton growers. However, high
cotton prices have a negative impact in cotton consumption.
• New concerns regarding plastics and microplastic pollution
could have a positive impact on the demand for cotton.
www.icac.org
Thank you
Any Questions?
International Cotton Advisory Committee
