Country Report - AXA-ASR ASR Nigeria By the... · Country Report Nigeria: ... In 1960, Nigeria gained independence from the ... Nigeria’s main resources are natural gas, petroleum,

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A macroeconomic data and trends report on Nigeria

Country ReportNigeria: By the numbers

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Country Report | Nigeria: By the numbers

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Contents

Background Key dates, Land, Resources, Population

Economy

Political Stability Corruption, Terrorism

Foreign Direct Investment Inward greenfield FDI projects,Capital expenditure, Sectors,South-South FDI: China

Trade Oil exports, Trading partners

Banking and Finance Financial inclusion

Central Intelligence AgencyfDi MarketsInternational Labour OrganizationInternational Monetary FundInternational Telecommunications Union

About the dataThe report is based on data extracted from the Analyse Africa database from the Financial Times.

Analyse Africa aggregates macroeconomic data from world renowned sources into one digital data platform. It features over 1.75 million data records for 4,500+ indicators from 2000 to the most recent year available. The data sources in this report, listed below, were accessed via www.AnalyseAfrica.com

Infrastructure 18 Quality of overall infrastructure, Quality of electricity supply

Telecoms 20Telephones: Mobile and fixed-line

Labour 22Market efficiency, Productivity

Education 23Quality, Youth literacy, Adult literacy

Healthcare 27Human Development Index, Disease, HIV

Inter-Parliamentary UnionMo Ibrahim FoundationNigerian National Bureau of StatisticsPolitical Terror ScaleTransparency International

United Nations Development ProgrammeUnited Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)The World BankWorld Economic ForumWorld Health Organization



BackgroundKey dates

In 1960, Nigeria gained independence from the British Empire and a coalition government was formed. Over the following decades, politics were characterised by coups and military rule. Ethno-religious tensions as well as rivalries between the north and south of the country remain high.

Oil was discovered in 1956 in the Niger Delta by Shell-BP and Nigeria began producing oil in 1958. In 1971, Nigeria joined the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) improving its position in the international energy market.

In 1998, military ruler General Sani Abacha died while in office which allowed for a political transition to competitive multi-party politics. Parliamentary and presidential elections were held and in 1999 a new constitution was adopted.

Violence marked the decade from 2000 to 2010 due to inter-communal tensions. In 2000, several northern states adopted Islamic Law which saw an increase in ethno-religious tension as well as religious riots in Kaduna.

Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, launched its first major attack against the country in July 2009. In August 2009, a government amnesty deal was offered to militants in the Delta who had been kidnapping foreign workers and destroying oil industry infrastructure.

In April 2015, President Muhammadu Buhari defeated President Goodluck Johnathan in the presidential election. This was the first time an incumbent president had been beaten in an election with a peaceful transition.

In 2016, a new militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers, formed to demand better share of the oil wealth in the Southern Delta region and began attacking pipelines and facilities causing oil production to slow.

In 2001, inter-communal conflict broke out in eastern-central Nigeria, displacing thousands of people and causing over 200 civilian deaths at the hands of the military. Fighting in Jos caused over 200 deaths in 2008 and there was a marked increase in attacks on oil facilities by a number of militant groups.



Land

Nigeria has a land area of 910,768 sq. km and a water area of 13,000 sq. km, totalling 923,768 sq. km. This means that it has the 14th largest land area in Africa and the 32nd largest land area globally. Nigeria shares borders with four West African states: Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The land border areas total 4,477 km – roughly twice the size of California.

Over three-quarters (78%) of land in Nigeria is used for agricultural purposes (37.3% dedicated to arable crops, 33.3% permanent pasture, and 7.4% permanent crops); 9.5% is forest area; and the remaining 12.5% classified as ‘other’ (built-up areas, roads and other transportation features, barren land, or wasteland).

Resources

Nigeria’s main resources are natural gas, petroleum, tin, iron ore, coal, limestone, niobium, lead, zinc and arable land. Almost 3,000 sq. km of land in Nigeria is irrigated and it has 286 cubic kilometres of total renewable water resources.

Demographics

NationalityNigerian

Ethnic groupsNigeria is composed of more than 250 ethnic groups. The most

populous and politically influential are: Hausa and the Fulani (29%), Yoruba (21%), Igbo (Ibo) (18%), Ijaw (10%), Kanuri (4%),

Ibibio (3.5%), Tiv (2.5%)

LanguagesEnglish (official), Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulani, over 500

additional indigenous languages

ReligionMuslim: 50%

Christian: 40% Indigenous beliefs: 10%

Life expectancyTotal: 53.0 yearsMale: 52.0 years

Female: 54.1 years In comparison to the rest of the world, this places Nigeria 213th

out of 224 countries (2015 estimate)

Source: The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency



Did you know?

Nigeria, like many African countries, is experiencing a youth population bulge. Currently those who are aged 24 and under account for approximately 63% of Nigeria’s total population. This bulge in the youth population could provide a great opportunity for economic development. However, significant investment in areas such as education and health are required to take advantage of this opportunity.

Population

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country. Its population has been consistently increasing since 2000, and has been growing at a higher rate than both Egypt and South Africa. Nigeria’s population has increased from 123mn people in 2000 to 187mn in 2016.

Source: Analyse Africa analysis based on International Labour Organization

Chart 1: Total estimated population, selected African economies, 2000-2016

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

South Africa

Nigeria

Egypt

201620142012201020082006200420022000

2.55 2.602.69 2.73

2.63

1.85 1.871.77

2.24

2.05

1.50 1.481.32

1.15

0.90

%

Chart 2: Population growth rate (%), selected African economies, 2000-2016

Source: Analyse Africa analysis based on International Labour Organization

0 50 100 150 200

South Africa

Egypt

Nigeria

2016

2012

2008

2004

2000

122.877

68.335

44.897

136.033

73.596

47.667

151.116

78.596

50.349

168.24

85.661

52.837

54.979

93.384

186.988



Economy

In April 2016, The IMF had forecast Nigeria’s economy to grow by +2.32% in real terms, however this was revised down to -1.8% in July as a result of its economy adjusting to a shortage in foreign currency, low power generation, and weak investor confidence. Due to the large weighting Nigeria carries, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has also been revised downward to +1.6%, from +3.0%.

In the decade 2000-2010 Nigeria was averaging 7% p.a. GDP growth. However since 2010, growth has slowed. GDP growth fell to +2.7% in 2015, the smallest increase since 1995. In 2016, Nigeria is forecast to fall into recession, with its economy shrinking by -1.8%. Prior to the currency crisis caused by falling oil prices, the continual threat of terrorism and poor quality electricity supply have been factors in the slowing of the economy. In 2017, however, it is expected to recover and grow by +1.1%.

Source: World Economic Outlook July 2016, International Monetary Fund; Analyse Africa analysis (f) = forecast* Data has been converted to USD based on the 2010 average exchange rate: 1 NGN = 0.06545USD. This is the base year for the constant prices.

Chart 4: GDP growth rate (%), constant prices, Nigeria, 2010-2017

Source: World Economic Outlook (July 2016), International Monetary Fund

Chart 3: GDP growth rate (%), constant prices, selected countries and regions, 2016

Source: World Economic Outlook (July 2016), International Monetary Fund

GDP, constant prices, USD, 2016* $448.50bn

GDP, constant prices (f), USD, 2017* $453.42bn

GDP per capita, constant prices, USD, 2016* $2,399

GDP per capita (f), constant prices, USD, 2017* $2,364

Real GDP % growth, 2015-2016 -1.8%

Real GDP % growth (f), 2016-2017 1.1%

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

20172016201520142013201220112010

%

10%

4.3%4.9% 5.4%

6.3%

2.7%

-1.8%

1.1%

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Nigeria

South AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

United StatesWorldChinaIndia

%

2.2%1.6%

0.1%-1.8%

6.6%3.1%

7.1%



GDP composition

Since the rebasing of its GDP in 2014, Nigeria’s GDP composition has changed considerably. The service sector has increased significantly from approximately 26% of total GDP in 2012 to 56% in 2015. The industry sector was estimated to account for 43% in 2012 but now accounts for under one-quarter of the country’s GDP (24%). Similarly, the agriculture sector has decreased from 30% to 20%. Despite this, energy revenues still account for some 90 percent of government revenues and the vast majority of exports.

Chart 5: GDP composition (%), Nigeria, 2012

Source: The World Factbook, Central Intelligence AgencySource: The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency

Chart 6: GDP composition (%), Nigeria, 2015

Agriculture

Industry

Services26%31%

43%

56%

20%

24%

In the news

Africa Internet Group, founded in Nigeria in 2012 with a sales approach similar to

Amazon, has become the continent’s first ‘unicorn’ after securing an investment valuing

the e-commerce group at more than $1bn.



Political stabilityThe Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance is an assessment of the quality of governance in African countries, based on safety and rule of law, participation and human rights, sustainable economic opportunity and human development. Nigeria’s Index score has improved since 2004, increasing from 41.57 out of 100 to 44.88 in 2014.

Government & politics

FormFederal Presidential Republic. Modelled after the United States, this means the

President has executive power. There is also a Senate and House of

Representatives with members from each of the 36 Nigerian states. Each sit for a

four year term

Current head of statePresident Muhammadu Buhari, All

Progressives Congress Party (as of 29 May 2015)

Suffrage18 years old and above. Voting is universal

Women in governmentWomen hold 20 seats out of 360 in the

Lower House (5.6%) and 7 seats out of 108 in the Upper House (6.5%) as of 2016

Sources: BBC, Inter-parliamentary Union

Location African rank (1-52)Score

(0-100)

Mauritius 1 79.92

South Africa 4 72.98

Morocco 16 57.64

Algeria 20 52.91

Egypt 24 51.27

Nigeria 39 44.88

Angola 43 40.83

Nigeria ranks 39th out of 52 African countries in 2014. Comparably, Egypt, which was marked by political and societal turmoil from 2011 to 2014 ranks 24th.

Source: Analyse Africa analysis based on Ibrahim Index of African Governance, Mo Ibrahim Foundation* [0 = low level of governance performance; 100 = high level of governance performance]

Table 1: Ibrahim Index of African Governance, score 0-100*, selected African countries, 2014



Corruption

Corruption in Nigeria is centred around its oil industry, which accounts for around 35% of the country’s GDP. Approximately 100,000 barrels of oil were stolen each day in 2013, according to Chatham House.

When Muhammadu Buhari took over the presidency in 2015, he promised to end the ‘mind-boggling’ level of corruption within the oil industry by firing 26 heads of government owned companies and taking personal control of the oil ministry (Source: BBC, 2016).

In the news

The Nigerian government has not been without its fair share of corruption allegations. In May 2016, the ex-Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was ordered by the courts to provide information for

finance unaccounted for during the administration of former president, Goodluck Jonathan.

The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a global rank of how corrupt a country’s public sector is perceived to be. Countries are scored on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean) and ranked globally.

The graphic opposite shows that Nigeria ranks 136th out of 167 countries, only three places ahead of Kenya (139th) which is renowned for its corrupt government and society. Nigeria scored 26 out of 100, leaning more towards the highly corrupt section of the index. Nigeria fares slightly better in the ranking than Angola (163rd), Sudan (165th) and Somalia (167th; the most corrupt country in the index). Botswana is the highest ranking African country, placing 28th.

Algeria Score: 36 Rank: 88th

South Africa Score: 44 Rank: 61st

Nigeria Score: 26 Rank: 136th

Angola Score: 15 Rank: 163rd

Namibia Score: 53 Rank: 45th

Sudan Score: 12 Rank: 165th

Somalia Score: 8 Rank: 167th

Kenya Score: 25 Rank: 139th

Botswana Score: 63 Rank: 28th

Graphic 1: Corruption Perception Index, Global Score and Rank, selected African countries, 2015

Source: Corruption Perceptions Index, Transparency International



2002Boko Haram, an anti-Western Islamic

group, was established by Mohammed Yusuf with the vision of establishing an

Islamic caliphate.

2009Boko Haram launched its first military operation against police stations and government buildings in Maiduguri,

capital of Borno state. Hundreds killed in street shootouts. Mohammed Yusuf

killed. Security forces declare Boko Haram finished.

2011Increased presence of Boko Haram

militants in northern states. In August, the group bombed the UN headquarters in Abuja, the first time a Western target

had been hit.

2014Boko Haram kidnapped over 200 school girls from Chibok in Borno state. Islamic

caliphate declared in northern states with Gwoza as its capital. Boko Haram

declare to Islamic State.

April 2013Over 200 civilians are killed in Baga after

a shootout began between Nigerian security forces and Boko Haram.

Nigerian army accused of carrying out the massacre. US State Dept. declares Boko Haram a terrorist organisation.

May 2013A ‘state of emergency’ is declared in the

three northern states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. #BringBackOurGirls

January- February 2015In Baga, Boko Haram attack the

headquarters and there were mass killings in the surrounding areas. Boko Haram attack Chad for the first time.

Government suspends elections in order to counter terrorist threat.

Summer 2015Increased numbers of suicide bombings

in Chad and Nigeria and attacks on mosques. Boko Haram’s area of control

diminishes.

September - December 2015In spite of government announcements

that Boko Haram were ‘technically defeated’, terrorist activity increased in Borno and Yobe, as well as Chad, Niger

and Cameroon.

May - June 2016Two of the 218 missing school girls

kidnapped in 2014 were found. Violence continues. Boko Haram murder at last 18 women in Kuda, north-eastern Nigeria.

Terrorism Boko Haram

According to the Amnesty International Political Terror Scale and the Human Rights Watch Political Terror Scale,

Nigeria scores 4 out of 5 for the levels of political violence and terror that the country experiences. This means that

terror has infiltrated into the population and political leaders place little limits on the means with which they pursue their

goals.

4/5

Sources: BBC; Political Terror Scale (2015)



Foreign Direct InvestmentForeign Direct Investment (FDI) has increased in importance in Africa as it forms a critical financial source for development and economic growth. FDI to Africa as a whole decreased in 2015 by 31%. Within Nigeria, FDI fell by 27% to $3.4bn, largely due to a fall in commodity and oil prices. It was estimated that greenfield capital investment into Nigeria stood at $8.6bn in 2015 and approximately 13,650 jobs were created. (Sources: UNCTAD; fDi Markets)

Inward greenfield FDI projects

Nigeria was one of the top five African destinations for greenfield FDI in 2015, with 53 projects recorded. South Africa was the largest recipient of FDI in Africa in terms of project numbers (130), accounting for 17% of the total African FDI projects.

Location Projects

South Africa 130

Kenya 95

Morocco 74

Egypt 66

Nigeria 53

Mozambique 32

Table 2: Greenfield FDI into Africa, number of projects, selected African economies, 2015*

Chart 7 shows the number of greenfield FDI projects into Nigeria between 2005 and 2015. The peak year for FDI in Nigeria was 2013, when 70 greenfield FDI projects were recorded. The fall in FDI projects from 2013 to 2014 could be attributed to a fall in oil prices. In the first two quarters of 2016, Nigeria has recorded 18 projects, down slightly from 20 projects in the same period in 2015. (Source: fDi Markets)

Chart 7: Number of inward greenfield FDI projects, Nigeria, 2005-2015

Source: fDi Markets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20152014201320122011201020092008200720062005

32

2319

40 43

34

52

61

70

4953

Nu

mb

er

of

pro

jec

ts

Source: fDi Markets*Includes estimates



Capital expenditure

Capital investment into Nigeria peaked in 2008 with over $27bn worth of greenfield FDI recorded, attributed to an increase in FDI projects within the Energy cluster, valuing $24.2bn. In more recent years from 2011, investments steadily increased until 2014 after which it fell by 21.2% to $8.6bn in 2015. In Q1 and Q2 of 2016, $1.2bn worth of capital had been invested in Nigeria. In comparison, in Q1 and Q2 of 2015, $5.2bn worth of capital, showing a 77% decrease between the two quarters. (Source: fDi Markets)

Location Capex (USD, bn) % share of African FDI

Egypt 14.64 20.6

Nigeria 8.63 12.1

Mozambique 5.17 7.3

South Africa 4.89 6.9

Uganda 4.65 6.5

Morocco 4.51 6.3

Cote d’Ivoire 3.54 5.0

Angola 2.69 3.8

Kenya 2.55 3.6

Senegal 1.97 2.8

Table 3: Total estimated capital investment on inward FDI (USD, bn) and share of total FDI, Top 10 African recipients, 2015*

Source: fDi Markets * Capital investment figures include estimates

In 2015, over $70bn was invested by foreign companies into Africa. Nigeria was the second largest recipient, accounting for 12.1% of the total. Egypt was the number one destination with over $14.5bn of capital invested, or 20.6% of the total. The top 10 African recipients accounted for 74.8% of the total capital invested in Africa.

Source: fDi Markets* Capital investment figures includes estimates

Chart 8: Total estimated capex on inward FDI (USD, bn), Nigeria, 2005-2015*

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

USD (bn)

9.3

5.9

1.9

27.1

7.8

8.0

3.8

5.1

7.8

10.8

8.6



South-South FDI: China

Trade relationships between China and African countries are not new. China and Nigeria formally established bilateral links in 1971 and major trade agreements were signed from 2001.

China’s influence and position with many resource-rich countries has however increased substantially as its economy has grown. Thus it can be no surprise that in 2013 China became the largest supplier of FDI and export partner of Sub-Saharan Africa, and overtook the United States as Nigeria’s largest trade partner in 2014.

In terms of FDI flows, China invested $2.1bn in Nigeria in 2013, concentrated in oil and gas, production and telecoms sectors. A pronounced economic slowdown in China could have negative impacts on Nigeria, especially in terms of economic growth and FDI flows.

Sector Capex (USD, mn)

Energy 3,784

ICT and electronics 2,462

Construction 583

Retail trade 300

Food, beverages and tobacco 111

Environmental technology 100

Financial services 77

Transport equipment 29

Table 4: Estimated capital expenditure on inward FDI by sector (USD, mn), Nigeria, 2015

Source: fDi Markets

Sectors

Nigeria’s largest trading commodity is mineral fuels and oil, accounting for 91% of Nigeria’s world exports. Unsurprisingly, the energy sector was the largest FDI sector in terms of capital investment, with $3.7bn invested – accounting for 51% of Nigeria’s total inward capital investment in 2015. The second largest sector in terms of capital expenditure was ICT and electronics with almost $2.5bn invested.

In the news

In January 2016, Chinese firm Sinotruck announced that it was establishing an assembly plant in Calabar, Nigeria. The facility will be preceded by the establishment of service centres all

over the state for the company’s trucks. The company said that this would create 864 jobs.



TradeNigeria has seen the value of its exports drop significantly in recent years. Exports in 2015 totalled $48.14bn, half of the total in 2014 ($97.97bn). This trend looks set to continue for 2016 with Q1 exports valued at $6.32bn, down significantly from $13.61bn recorded in Q1 2015. The decline in exports is primarily due to the impact of falling oil prices — which fell by over $70 a barrel between Q1 2013 and Q1 2016 — on crude oil exports. In Q1 2013, crude oil exports accounted for $16.53bn, or 87.8% of Nigeria’s total exports. By Q1 2016, crude oil exports had fallen to $4.09bn (64.7% of total exports).

Imports and exports

Total Exports, Q1 2016: $6.32bn

Top export commodities, Q1 2016: Crude oil (64.7%) Natural gas, liquefied (15.1%) Superior quality raw cocoa beans (2.4%) Gum arabic (1.45%), Sesame seeds (1.1%)

Chart 9: Top crude oil export partners (USD, mn)*, Nigeria, Q1, 2016 Chart 10: Total crude oil exports (USD, bn)*, Nigeria, full year and Q1, 2013-2016

Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, First Quarter 2016, Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics*Data has been converted to USD based on the year’s exchange rate

Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, First Quarter 2016, Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics *Data has been converted to USD based on the period’s exchange rate

Top import commodities, Q1 2016: Motor spirit ordinary (15.6%)Durum wheat (2.9%)Motorcycles and cycles (1.6%)Cane sugar (1.3%)Automatic data processing machines (0.9%)

Total Imports, Q1 2016: $7.24bn

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900

ChinaItaly

NetherlandsBrazil

France

South AfricaSpain

United StatesIndia

672

822

433364

260 255

120 97 87

USD

(mns

)

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20

30

40

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Q1

Full year

2016201520142013

71.45

19.67

34.17

8.554.09

73.41

16.53

USD

(bns

)

N/A



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FranceNetherlandsSpainUnited StatesIndia

USD

(mns

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NetherlandsIndiaBelgiumUnited StatesChina

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)

Chart 11: Top export partners, Nigeria (USD, mn)* and percentage share, all commodities, Q1, 2016

Chart 12: Top import partners, Nigeria (USD, mn)* and percentage share, all commodities, Q1, 2016

Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, First Quarter 2016, Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics * Data has been converted to USD based on the Q1 2016 average exchange rate: 1 NGN = 0.00498 USD

Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, First Quarter 2016, Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics * Data has been converted to USD based on the Q1 2016 average exchange rate: 1 NGN = 0.00498 USD

The Top 5 import trading partners accounted

for 51.6% of all Nigerian imports in Q1 2016

The Top 5 export trading partners accounted

for 51.4% of all Nigerian exports in Q1 2016

Trade partners

India is the largest importer of Nigerian goods, accounting for 15.2% of total Nigerian exports in Q1 2016. Mineral fuels and oil is Nigeria’s largest export sector to India, accounting for 85.8% ($822mn) of total exports.

In the news

• In May 2016, attacks by the Niger Delta Avengers, reduced the country’s output to the lowest level in more than two decades. Output fell from 2.2mn barrels a day to 1.4mn, according to Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s Petroleum Minister.

• Over the past two years, import bans in Nigeria have been put in place to halt the decline in foreign currency reserves, including food products such as rice and raw materials including iron and wood. This has impacted many Nigerian exporters as they have been unable to import the raw materials they need in order to produce their goods.

15.2%

12.7%

10.1%

7.0%6.4%

958

806

637

442405

23.8%

1721

633

8.7%7.9%569 6.1%

4455.1%

367



Banking and financeFinancial inclusion

In 2008, a survey revealed that 53% of adults were excluded from financial services in Nigeria. Since then there has been a focus on improving financial inclusion and in 2012 the Central Bank of Nigeria launched the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, which aims to reduce the exclusion rate to 20% by 2020.

One area that has improved is the number of commercial bank deposit accounts. Since 2008, the penetration rate more than doubled from 309 bank accounts per 1000 adults to 648 in 2014.

The proportion of people with a mobile bank account in Nigeria was only 2.29%. This was above the world average of 2.02%, but was much lower than the Sub-Saharan average of 11.51%, where mobile technology has been leapfrogging.

Chart 13: Bank accounts per 1,000 adults, Nigeria, 2007-2014

Source: Global Financial Development Database, The World Bank

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

20142013201220112010200920082007

309

461 469500

639 645 648

294

Ban

k ac

coun

ts p

er 1,

000

adul

ts

In the news

• In June 2016, the Central Bank of Nigeria allowed the naira to be floated against the US dollar to help combat the fall in oil prices. It fell by approximately 30% against the dollar in the first day.

• In August 2016, SunTrust Bank became the first regional bank to receive a new licence by the Central Bank of Nigeria since 2001 and the first fully-fledged financial technology bank in Nigeria.



Infrastructure

In general, Nigeria has a poor quality infrastructure network. Improvements are particularly sought in energy, transport and telecommunications sectors. Only 56% of the population have access to electricity, which is significantly lower than the world average of 85%. It is, however, a higher proportion than the Sub-Saharan average of 35%. Nigeria’s generation capacity was 10,022 megawatts (MW) in 2013, of which 7,892 MW (79%) was from fossil fuel sources, 2,040 MW (20%) was from hydro sources, 88 MW from biomass and waste (<1%), and 2 MW (<1%) from wind2.

Location Rating (1-7)African Rank

(1-37)Global rank

(0-140)

Namibia 4.71 1 42

Seychelles 4.65 2 43

Mauritius 4.58 3 47

Cote d’Ivoire 4.48 4 50

Rwanda 4.46 5 52

Nigeria 2.45 33 133

Table 5: Quality of overall infrastructure, rating 1 – 7*, Nigeria, 2015

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016, World Economic Forum*[1 = extremely underdeveloped; 7 = extensive and efficient by international standards]

Based on the Global Competitiveness Report’s executive opinion survey, Nigeria is rated as having underdeveloped infrastructure in areas such as transportation, communication and energy. Nigeria is rated 133rd out of 140 countries globally.

2 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (May, 2016), http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=NGA

In the news

• In June 2016, Nigeria signed memorandums of understanding worth $80bn with Chinese companies to upgrade its oil and gas infrastructure, including refineries, pipelines, and developing the power and gas sectors.

• In July 2016, President Muhammadu Buhari opened the Abuja-Kaduna rail line, Nigeria’s first ever Standard Gauge Rail track.



Location Rating (1-7) African Rank (1-37)Global rank

(0-140)

Mauritius 5.53 1 45

Morocco 5.38 2 51

Namibia 5.36 3 52

Tunisia 4.84 4 64

Seychelles 4.79 5 68

Nigeria 1.38 36 139

Table 6: Quality of electricity supply, rating 1 – 7*, Nigeria, 2016

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016, World Economic Forum* [1 = insufficient and suffers frequent interruptions; 7 = sufficient and reliable]

Nigeria has one of the most unreliable electricity connections, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, due to frequent interruptions and voltage fluctuations. Nigeria is rated 139th out of 140 countries globally, with only Guinea rated as having a more unreliable supply of electricity. Sub-Saharan

Africa35.3

Egypt100

World84.6

South Africa85.4

Nigeria55.6

Graphic 2: Proportion of population with access to electricity supply, (%), selected economies, 2012*

Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank*Includes estimates



Telecoms

Mobile subscriptions in Nigeria more than doubled

in six years from 62.99mn in 2008 to 150.83mn in 2015

180,000total number of fixed

telephone lines in Nigeria in 2014

Algeria: 3.10mnMorocco: 2.49mn Egypt: 6.32mn

Ethiopia: 0.82mn

Nigeria: 0.18mn

Angola: 0.28mn

Namibia: 0.18mn

South Africa: 3.65mn

Madagascar: 0.25mn

Sources: International Telecommunication Union; Analyse Africa; Wage Indicator; The World Bank

Broadband subscription in Nigeria is low

0.01 out of 100 people had a fixed

broadband subscription in 2014

42.7out of 100 people used

the internet in 2014

To have fixed broadband in Nigeria in 2015 would have

cost

33% of the national monthly

minimum wage

$32.74monthly subscription charge for fixed broadband in 2015

$98.36monthly minimum wage in

Nigeria in January 2015

$1.4bninvested in telecoms with

private participation in 2014

0

50

100

150

200

20152014201220102008

62.99

87.30

112.78

138.96150.83

Mill

ions

Chart 14: Total number of mobile-cellular subscriptions (mn), Nigeria, 2008-2015

$

Graphic 3: Number of fixed telephone subscriptions, (mn) selected African economies, 2014*

151mn



Telephones: Mobile and fixed-line

The rapid growth in the mobile market is in stark contrast to fixed line services such as telephone lines and broadband subscriptions. In 2014, there were only 180,000 fixed telephone lines in Nigeria, compared to 139mn mobile phone subscriptions. This highlights Nigeria’s technological leapfrogging as well as reflecting issues with pricing. Mobile-cellular subscriptions in Nigeria have more than doubled from 62.99mn in 2008 to 150.83mn in 2015. Nigeria ranks 8th in the world in terms of mobile phone subscribers and is the only African country in the global top 10 (see table 7 opposite).

Almost the whole of the Nigerian population is within mobile network coverage (99.39%). This is above the African average of 87.65% and significantly higher than some other African economies.

Location Global RankMobile

subscriptions (mn)

Population (mn)

China 1 1,305 1,371

India 2 1,011 1,311

USA 3 382 321

Indonesia 4 338 257

Brazil 5 257 207

Russia 6 227 144

Japan 7 158 126

Nigeria 8 150 182

Vietnam 9 122 91

Philippines 10 120 100

Table 7: Total number of mobile-cellular subscriptions (mn), Top 10 countries, 2015

Sources: International Telecommunication Union; The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency; World Development Indicators, The World Bank

Source: International Telecommunication Union

Chart 15: Population covered by a mobile-cellular network (%), selected African countries, 2015

0 20 40 60 80 100

Burundi

Djibouti

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Central African Republic

Mozambique

African Average

Nigeria

Malawi

Egypt

Rwanda

South Africa

Namibia 100

99.9

99.9

99.8

99.6

99.4

87.7

72.0

62.0

50.0

31.0

30.0

%



LabourMarket efficiency

Based on the Global Competitiveness Report’s executive opinion survey, Nigeria has one of the most efficient labour markets – with the survey based on factors such as hiring and firing practices, pay and productivity, and capacity to retain and attract talent included. Nigeria ranks fifth in Africa and also performs relatively well globally, ranking 35th out of 140 economies.

Location Rating (1-7)African Rank

(1-37)Global rank

(0-140)

Rwanda 5.21 1 8

Uganda 4.65 2 27

Malawi 4.60 3 29

Kenya 4.56 4 31

Nigeria 4.55 5 35

Productivity

Nigeria has a labour force (aged 15+) of 57.46mn people – the largest labour force in Africa. The labour force participation rate is 56%. It is worth noting that these figures may not always be strictly accurate as the data is unlikely to capture information from the informal sector. Nigeria’s labour productivity, measured in terms of GDP per person employed, has increased year-on-year since 2000, more than doubling from $9703 in 2000 to $20,328 in 2015. Although its labour productivity has been increasing year-on-year, Nigeria ranks only 14th in Africa, and lags behind other similar sized economies such as South Africa ($44,421), and Egypt ($37,044).

Table 8: Labour Market Efficiency, rating 1-7*, Top five African countries, 2015

Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016, World Economic Forum

* [1 = highly inefficient; 7 = highly efficient]

Chart 16: GDP per person employed, Constant 2011 PPP$, Nigeria, 2000-2015

Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank

0

6250

12500

18750

25000

2015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

9,704

14,399

17,766

20,328

Inte

rnat

iona

l dol

lars



Education in Nigeria is a shared responsibility between the state, federal, and local governments. Within the Nigerian education system, the first nine years (primary and junior secondary school) are mandatory. Children then have the option to progress to senior secondary school and tertiary education. Primary education has been free for all Nigerians since 1976. Nigeria has 121 universities; 36 Federal, 38 State and 47 Private. The University of Ibadan, Nigeria’s oldest, ranked in the top 800 universities in the world by The Times Higher Education Rankings, placing 601st.

YearPrimary education

enrolment (persons, mn)% of population

Secondary education enrolment (persons, mn)

% of population

2000 19.15 15.20 4.10 3.26

2002 19.81 14.94 5.1 3.87

2004 21.40 15.73 6.28 4.62

2006 22.87 15.95 6.43 4.49

2008 20.01 13.23 6.89 4.56

2010 21.56 13.50 9.06 5.67

There are stark differences between the numbers of people that receive primary and secondary education; there is no guarantee that those children attending primary will go on to attend secondary.

There are a number of reasons that could be attributed to this including that attending senior secondary school is voluntary; children could be required to begin employment; the monetary cost of education; socio-religious and gender factors including those studying under Qur’anic instruction; geographical distance; and lack of resources.

Source: Analyse Africa analysis based on UNESCO Education Statistics and International Labour Organization*Includes estimates

Table 9: Enrolment in primary and secondary education, Nigeria, 2000-2010*

Did you know?

Of the estimated 8.7 million children of primary school age that were not enrolled in school in 2010, 57% were

female and 43% were male.

Source: Analyse Africa based on UNESCO Institute of Statistics

Education



Education

Literacy ratesTotal (15+): 59.6%

Males: 69.2%Females: 49.7%(2015 estimate)

School life expectancy:Males: 10 years

Females: 8 years

Quality of education

While numbers enrolled in education across Africa have improved under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), quality of education remains a problem. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the quality of education in Nigeria has been falling since 2012. In 2015, Nigeria’s quality of education was rated 2.98 out of 7 (7 being the highest and best quality) (see Chart 17). This score is based on the education system, the standard of mathematics and science education and the quality of management schools. Quality of primary education in Nigeria in 2015 scored 2.53 out of 7 which has also decreased year on year from 2012 (see Chart 18).

There could be a number of reasons for the poor quality of education levels in Nigeria including administrative failures, poor infrastructure and facilities, lack of trained teachers and educational staff and lack of quality inspection procedures.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015201420132012201120102009200820072006

Chart 17: Quality of education, Nigeria, rating 1-7*, 2006-2015

Rat

ing

Source: Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum *[1 = poor quality education; 7 = high quality education]

Source: Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum *[1 = poor quality primary education; 7 = high quality primary education]

3.093.58 3.62

2.98

Chart 18: Quality of primary education, Nigeria, rating 1-7*, 2007-2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

201520142013201220112010200920082007

Rat

ing

2.51 2.713.12 2.92

2.53



Youth literacy

In comparison to other large economies in Africa (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Morocco and South Africa), Nigeria has the lowest level of youth literacy (72.79%) in 15-24 year olds. South Africa (99.03%) and Algeria (96.75%) have the highest population of children and young people who have the ability to read and write. Compared with neighbouring economies, Nigeria ranks second behind Cameroon which has the highest rate (83.80%). Niger has the lowest youth literacy levels with only 26.56% of young people able to read and write. This is well below the world average of 91.40% and the Sub-Saharan average of 75.40%.

In 2010, just under one third (31.93%) of children in Nigeria of primary school age were out of school. That was double the rate of Angola (14.38%), six times of that in Morocco (5.59%), and over 30 times of that in Algeria (1.02%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

NigerBeninChadNigeriaAngolaCameroonEgyptMoroccoAlgeriaSouth Africa

99.03 96.75 95.07 93.29

83.80

72.93 72.79

52.75 52.55

26.56

%

Chart 19: Literacy rate of the population aged 15-24 years, both sexes (%), selected African economies, 2015

Source: Analyse Africa analysis based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics



In the news

• In 2016, the American University of Nigeria partnered with local community and religious leaders in northern Nigeria as part of a ‘feed and read’ program in order to improve health and education and literacy rates amongst vulnerable children.

• Public schools in Borno State have been closed since 2014 due to attacks on schools in neighbouring Yobe State by Boko Haram.

• The Federal Government is to implement a new education strategy in 2016 to improve and transform the sector.

Adult literacy

Nigeria has the lowest level of adult literacy when compared against other large African economies. Just below 60% of Nigerian adults have the ability to read and write. In comparison, over 94% of South African adults are literate.

Within West Africa, Nigeria ranks second below Cameroon, where over 74% of the adult population have literacy skills. Nigeria’s percentage is significantly lower than the world average (86%) and slightly lower than the Sub-Saharan average (65%). Niger has the lowest percentage of adult literacy in Africa (19.10%).

0

20

40

60

80

100

NigerBeninChadNigeriaAngolaMoroccoCameroonEgyptAlgeriaSouth Africa

94.60

79.1074.9975.84

71.71 71.16

59.57

40.02 38.45

19.10

%

Source: Analyse Africa analysis based on UNESCO Institute for Statistics

Chart 20: Literacy rate of the population aged 15+ years (%), selected African economies, 2015



Health

Life expectancy at birth 53.0 years

Infant mortality rate72.7 deaths per 1,000 live births. In

comparison to the rest of the world, this places Nigeria 10th globally (2015)

% GDP spent on health3.7 (2014 estimate)

Government expenditure on health, PPP, per capita

$54.53 (2014)

Children under 5 years old underweight (%)31%

In comparison to the rest of the world, this places Nigeria 12th globally (2013 estimate)

Sources: World Development Indicators, The World Bank; The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency

In 2014, Nigeria’s government spent 3.7% of GDP on health – one of the lowest proportions in Africa. In comparison to other African countries, Malawi spent the largest proportion of its GDP on healthcare (11.4%), followed by Sierra Leone (11.1%) and Lesotho (10.6%). South Sudan spent the smallest proportion (2.7%), followed by Eritrea and Angola (both 3.3%). The African average was 6%.

LocationGovernment expenditure on health

(% of GDP)African rank

(1-53)

Malawi 11.4 1

Sierra Leone 11.1 2

Lesotho 10.6 3

South Africa 8.8 8

Algeria 7.2 15

African Average 6.0 -

Morocco 5.9 21

Egypt 5.6 25

Equatorial Guinea 3.8 43

Nigeria 3.7 45

Chad 3.6 46

Eritrea 3.3 50

Angola 3.3 51

South Sudan 2.7 52

Table 10: Total spent on health by government (% of GDP), selected African economies, 2014

Source: Global Health Observatory Data Repository, World Health Organization, (available at <http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main>)

HealthcareThe healthcare system in Nigeria is decentralised and responsibility for its administration is shared across the different levels of government. The federal government’s role is over policy and technical support to the system as well as being involved in the university teaching hospitals. The state powers look after the general hospitals and the local governments are responsible for the dispensaries. Currently Nigerians pay for the health system voluntarily through their wages (5%) under the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) which was introduced in 1999.



Human Development Index

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite way of measuring average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and having a decent standard of living.

Nigeria ranks poorly in the index, scoring 0.514 – ranking 22nd out of 53 African countries and 152nd globally. Mauritius is the most developed African country and ranks 63rd

globally, whilst Niger has the lowest Human Development Index score of 0.348. The Human Development Report states that Nigeria suffers from administrative neglect, lack of social infrastructure and services, high unemployment, social deprivation, abject poverty, filth and squalor, and endemic conflict which can cause human development to falter. It points to multidimensional poverty and lack of human security as crucial areas affecting Nigeria’s performance (Source: Human Development Report, 2015).

Location Index score African rank (1-53)* Global rank (1-188)*

Mauritius 0.777 1 63

Algeria 0.736 3 83

Egypt 0.690 7 108

South Africa 0.666 9 116

Morocco 0.628 11 126

Angola 0.532 19 149

Nigeria 0.514 22 152

Niger 0.348 53 188

Table 11: Human Development Index, selected African economies, 2014

Source: United Nations Development Programme(*African and Global Rank, 1 =best)

In the news

• In 2016, healthcare reform plans were announced. Care would become free to more than 100mn Nigerians by 2018 which includes building around new primary health centres as well as providing more local care with improved facilities. The plans also included free antenatal and delivery services for pregnant women.

• Nigeria suffers from ‘brain drain’ notably in the healthcare sector. Many of Nigerians qualified to practice leave as there are better incentives and motivations elsewhere including salary.



Disease In 2015, 35% of all malaria deaths

occurred in just two countries: Nigeria

and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

In 2013, urban children

were twice as likely to be

immunized than rural children

Only 60% of newborns in Nigeria were

protected against tetanus in 2012

Nigeria’s child mortality rate is high;

109children out of 1000 will die before reaching the

age of 5

66%of deaths in Nigeria in 2012 were caused

by communicable diseases

This is two and a half times the global child

mortality rate of 43 per 1000 live births...

... and over 1/3 more than the African average of 69 per 1000

live births

Nigeria announced an emergency

immunization program against polio after

two new cases were discovered in August 2016. Up until then,

Nigeria had been polio-free for two years

1

23

4

5

Malaria

Lower respiratory

infections

HIV/AIDS

Diarrhoeal diseases

Road injuries

Sources: Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, CME Info, UNICEF, World Malaria Day, The World Bank, Global Health Observatory Data Repository, World Health Organization, (available at <http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main>)

Top five causes of death in Nigeria (2010)



HIVHIV/AIDS is an ongoing public health issue in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is the most affected region with 25.8million people living with HIV in 2014. Approximately 5.9million people aged 15 and over had HIV/AIDS in West and Central Africa

In 2014, there were approximately

3.5million Nigerians living with HIV, or

around 3.2% of the population aged 15-49

females

males

1.9 million 1.6 millionTotal 3.5 million

HIV/AIDS was more prevelant in females than in males in 2015

In 2014,

380,000 children aged 0 to 14 were

living with HIV/AIDS

0

1

2

3

4

201420122010200820062004

3.7 3.73.6

3.53.4

3.2

%

HIV prevelance in decreasing year-on-year from 3.7% of the population in 2004 to 3.2% in 2014

Of the 1.2million people that died of HIV related illnesses

globally in 2014, 790,000 were in Africa and 210,000

were in Nigeria

Source: UNAIDS; The World Bank

Chart 21: HIV prevelance in Nigeria, 2000-2014




Editor

Glenn Barklie

Analysts

James PattersonRachel Woods

For further information please contact:[email protected]+44 (0)20 7775 6900

Analyse Africa

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Analyse Africa, a service from the Financial Times, is a digital data platform which aggregates macroeconomic data on Africa’s 54 countries from leading global sources. Featuring over 1.75 million data records and 4,500+ indicators it allows fast access to quality checked data. Trend changes are highlighted and explained. Data categories include banking & finance, economic potential, education, environment, foreign direct investment, infrastructure, labour, political stability, social dynamics and trade.

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Disclaimer: This report was created using data from the Analyse Africa database. While care has been taken in programming the analysis and presentation of data, anomalies may occur. The Financial Times Ltd accepts no responsibility for the completeness, accuracy or otherwise of the content of the report. The report does not constitute any form of advice, recommendation, representation or endorsement and is not intended to be relied on in making (or refraining from making) any specific investment or other decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision.


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