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COUNTY AND LOCAL ROAD NEEDS 2012

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Previous Studies (2010-11) Additional Road Investments Needed to

Support Oil and Gas Production and Development in North Dakota

Rural Road Investment Needs to Support Agricultural Logistics and Economic Development in North Dakota

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SB 2325 “The purpose of updating and

maintaining reports for transportation infrastructure needs for all county and township roads in the state, for the biennium beginning July 1, 2011 and ending June 30, 2013”

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Analysis Process Traffic Volume Existing Structure Existing Condition Costs and Practices

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Traffic Volume Locations Volumes Forecasts Routing Optimization Results

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Traffic Types Modeled

Oil Development Agricultural Movements

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Location Assignment Data Collection

Network: Federal, State, Local Locations:

Spacing Units (Oil & Gas) Input Sources (NDDOT, Oil & Gas, SWC) Output Destinations (NDDOT, Oil & Gas, SWC) Elevators (UGPTI) Townships (Census)

Volumes: Oil – (Oil & Gas) Agriculture (NDPSC Grain Movement)

Forecasts: Oil – (Oil & Gas) Agriculture (NDSU – Ag Extension)

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Volumes Oil

Based upon NDDOT white paper (2,300 trucks per well)

Overloads estimated based upon internal assumptions and verified using weigh station data

Oil Related ESAL assumptions taken from NDDOT estimates

Agriculture Based upon average truck yield and throughput

data from NDPSC Grain Movement Database

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Forecasts Oil

Developed from forecasts provided by Oil & Gas

Agriculture Based upon discussions with NDSU

Extension, Industry organizations

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Future Well Locations Drilling

Zonal Plan/Forecasts Area Density Frequency of Drilling in a Spacing Unit Age of Well

Subject to Zonal Plan/Forecasts Number of Wells in a spacing unit

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Route Generation ESRI Network Analyst was used to generate routes between:

Spacing Units (fronthaul and backhaul) Freshwater Oil transload facilities Sand locations Cities SWD Spacing Units

Townships (fronthaul and backhaul) Elevators Ethanol Facilities Processors

Elevators (fronthaul and backhaul) Elevators Ethanol Facilities Processors Final Destinations

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Sample Routing Inbound

Sand Water Pipe

Outbound Oil

Rail Transload Pipe Transload

SWD

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Inbound Sand

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Inbound Water

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Inbound Pipe

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Outbound Oil - Rail

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Outbound Oil - Pipe

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Outbound SWD

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All Inbound

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All Outbound

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All Traffic

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Agricultural Analysis

Crop Production

Elevator & Plant Demands

Known

Known

Truck Trips and Routes

Predict

Segment Specific Traffic

Estimate

Data: Crop Production (NASS), Elevator Volumes (NDPSC), In-State Processors (Survey), Road Network (NDDOT-GIS Hub), Local Road Data (2008 Survey)

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Crop Production and Location

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Distribution Model Each township connected to nearest 150

elevators Elevators connected to each other Elevators connected to plants Fastest and shortest route algorithms Objective: meet the demands at

elevators and in-state processing plants with minimal hauling distances (trucking cost)

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Network Optimization Constrained Optimization Model

Freshwater to Wells Sand to Wells Gravel to Wells Pipe to Wells Equipment to Wells Supplies to Wells Agricultural Commodities to Elevators and Processors

Wheat Soybeans Corn Lentils/Dry Edible Beans Barley Oats Sunflower

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Network Optimization Thirteen separate optimization models

were estimated for each year of the analysis (260 in total)

Volumes from all optimization runs were aggregated to individual roadway segments

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Existing Structure Surface Type obtained from GIS

Shapefiles Surface Type verified by county officials Independent verification Graded roadway width – survey

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Existing Condition 1,000 miles of paved CMC roads were

scored using the NDDOT deduct scoring system

The approximately 4,500 remaining paved CMC roads were given condition ratings by county officials using a 5 category condition assessment

Both condition assessment methods were converted to Present Serviceability Rating (PSR) scores

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PSR DESCRIPTION

4.0- 5.0

Only new (or nearly new) superior pavements are likely to be smooth enough and distress free (sufficiently free of cracks and patches) to qualify for this category. Most pavements constructed or resurfaced during the data year would normally be rated in this category.

3.0 - 4.0

Pavements in this category, although not quite as smooth as those described above, give a first-class ride and exhibit few, if any, visible signs of surface deterioration. Flexible pavements may be beginning to show evidence of rutting and fine random cracks. Rigid pavements may be beginning to show evidence of slight surface deterioration, such as minor cracking and spalls.

2.0 - 3.0

The riding qualities of pavements in this category are noticeably inferior to those of the new pavements and may be barely tolerable for high-speed traffic. Surface defects of flexible pavements may include rutting, map cracking, and extensive patching. Rigid pavements may have a few joint fractures, faulting and/or cracking and some pumping.

1.0 - 2.0

Pavements have deteriorated to such an extent that they affect the speed of free-flow traffic. Flexible pavement may have large potholes and deep cracks. Distress includes raveling, cracking, and rutting and occurs over 50 percent or more of the surface. Rigid pavement distress includes joint spalling, faulting, patching, cracking, and scaling and may include pumping and faulting.

0.0 - 1.0

Pavements are in extremely deteriorated conditions. The facility is passable only at reduced speed and considerable ride discomfort. Large potholes and deep cracks exist. Distress occurs over 75 percent or more of the surface.

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Costs and Practices Data collected through survey of county

road managersGravel Road Costs Please report costs for gravel for county roads in the table below. The table asks for unit costs for graveling, maintaining, and operating gravel roads. Gravel/Scoria Cost

- Average Gravel/Scoria Cost (crushing & royalties) Per cubic yd.

- Trucking Cost from Gravel Origin Per loaded mile/Cu. Yard

- Placement Costs Per mile

- Blading Cost Per mile

- Dust Suppressant Costs Per mile

- Snow Removal Cost Per mile

Average Regraveling Thickness (Scoria/Gravel) Cubic yd/mile or Inches (Please circle one)

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Costs and PracticesRoad Maintenance and Practices

Gravel Road Practices Please report blading and graveling frequency for county gravel roads.

Blading Frequency

❏ 1 per week ❏ 1 per month ❏ 2 per month ❏ other (please explain)

Regraveling Frequency

❏ Every year ❏ Every 2-3 years ❏ Every 3-4 years ❏ 5 or more years ❏ other (please explain)

Stabilization

❏ Currently use (if this is selected, please comment on success rate) ❏ Exploring usage ❏ Do not plan to use

If answered “ Currently use” , please specify type of stabilization, cost per application and application frequency___________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________________________

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Improvement Types

How would you classify the average gravel road condition in your county?: ❏ Very Good ❏ Good ❏ Fair ❏ Poor

Paved Road Practices Please report typical paved road maintenance practices used in your county. Typical overlay frequency: _______________ Typical overlay thickness: ________________ Is roadway width due to repeated overlay treatment an issue in your county? ❏ Yes ❏ No If so – what is the estimated number of miles affected? Aside from routine maintenance and improvements, what other challenges are facing roadway maintenance in your county? (flooding, high traffic generators etc).

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Costs and Practices- Oil Impacted Gravel Roads (where applicable)

Blading Frequency ❏ 1 per week ❏ 1 per month ❏ 2 per month ❏ other (please explain)

Graveling Frequency

❏ Every year ❏ Every 2-3 years ❏ Every 3-4 years ❏ 5 or more years ❏ other (please explain)

Stabilization

❏ Currently use (if this is selected, please comment on success rate) ❏ Exploring usage ❏ Do not plan to use

If answered “ Currently use” , please specify type of stabilization, cost per application and application frequency__________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________

Dust Suppressant – on heavily impacted roads, how often is dust suppressant applied?

How would you classify the average gravel road condition in your county?: ❏ Very Good ❏ Good ❏ Fair ❏ Poor

What additional maintenance practices are being used to mitigate the impacts of oil development on the county gravel roads?

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Improvement Types Paved

Condition scores converted to PSR SN information, where available, calculated

or estimated based upon past responses/typical structure

AASHTO models used to simulate pavement deterioration and improvement types

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Timeliness of Improvements

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Improvement Types Paved

Resurfacing Reconstruction due to condition Sliver widening due to roadway width

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Improvement Types - Gravel Types of Practices

Graveling and Blading Normal Levels (Example: regraveling every 5 years, blade once per month) Increased Levels (Example: regraveling every 3-4 years, blade twice per

month) High Levels (Example: regraveling every 2-3 years, blade once per week) Usage of Dust Suppressant on Impacted Roads

Graveling and Base Stabilization Base 1 Permazyme Concrete

Graveling and Base Stabilization with Armor Coat Base 1 Permazyme Concrete

Asphalt Surface

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Improvement Types - Gravel Traffic model results will be segmented based upon traffic levels Levels broken into increments of 50 AADT

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250+

County specific practices will be used as the base maintenance practices

Life cycle costs of each maintenance practice will be calculated (i.e. 20 year cost of graveling)

Maintenance Type/Improvement selected for each AADT class based upon minimum life cycle cost

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Results – Paved RoadsPeriod Oil Counties Rest of State Statewide

Total2013-14 $278 $84 $3632015-16 $146 $155 $3012017-18 $111 $166 $2772019-20 $54 $145 $1992021-22 $43 $102 $1462023-32 $200 $460 $6602013-32 $832 $1,113 $1,946

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Results – Unpaved RoadsPeriod Oil Counties Rest of State Statewide

Total2013-14 $243 $227 $4712015-16 $243 $227 $4712017-18 $255 $231 $4862019-20 $267 $234 $5012021-22 $267 $234 $5012023-32 $1,376 $1,228 $2,6042013-32 $2,652 $2,382 $5,033

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Results – All RoadsPeriod Oil Counties Rest of State Statewide

Total2013-14 $521 $311 $8342015-16 $389 $382 $7722017-18 $366 $397 $7632019-20 $321 $379 $7002021-22 $310 $336 $6472023-32 $1,576 $1,688 $3,2642013-32 $3,484 $3,495 $6,979

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Draft Report The full report can be found at

www.ugpti.org – look in the upper right portion of the webpage

Alan Dybing alan.dybing@ndsu.edu 701.231.5988