COVID-19 Modeling November 10, 2020

Presentation available at:dfr.vermont.gov

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10 Million+ U.S. CasesNovember 9, 2020

1 Million Cases 99 Days

2 Million Cases 43 Days

3 Million Cases 28 Days

4 Million Cases 15 Days

5 Million Cases 17 Days

6 Million Cases 23 Days

7 Million Cases 27 Days

8 Million Cases 20 Days

9 Million Cases 13 Days

10 Million Cases 10 Days

Source: Johns Hopkins University

Source: Covid Tracking Project

31,000 Cases(7-Day Avg.)

66,500 Cases(7-Day Avg.)

112,500 Cases(7-Day Avg.)

U.S. Case Growth

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Forecasted 79% increase in new cases over the next six weeks

Source: Johns Hopkins University Data & Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - November 9, 2020

Estimated192,500 Cases

(7-Day Avg.)

Source: Raw data from COVID Tracking Project—November 9, 2020

U.S. Hospitalization Growth

59,940Hospitalizations

59,718Hospitalizations

59,275Hospitalizations

Source: Raw data from COVID Tracking Project—November 9, 2020

U.S. Covid-19 Deaths

2,113(7-Day Avg.)

1,109(7-Day Avg.)

953(7-Day Avg.)

7Sources: State Health Departments, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec

Regional Monitoring

Positive Cases Nov. 3rd to Nov. 9th

33.86% Increase in New Confirmed Cases

Positive Cases Oct. 27th to Nov. 2nd

40,238 53,862

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91,132Week-over-Week Northeast Case Growth

Since March 16, 2020

53,862

Sources: State Health Departments, New York Times Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec

New HampshireNew Cases (7-Day Avg.)

MaineNew Cases (7-Day Avg.)

Massachusetts New Cases (7-Day Avg.)

New YorkNew Cases (7-Day Avg.)

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Forecasted 105% increase in new cases over the next six weeks

Source: Johns Hopkins University Data & Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - November 9, 2020 (New England & New York)

Updated Regional Map

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Updated National Map

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Winooski Outbreak

Spring Peak Vermont New Cases 7-Day Average

Three Times with Accelerated Case Growth

Starting from a Higher Base of CasesMultiple Simultaneous Outbreaks

Source: Vermont Department of Health - November 9, 2020

15Sources: Vermont Department of Health (week calculated as Tuesday to Monday)

16Source: Vermont Department of Health - November 9, 2020

Vermont HospitalizationsRecent Uptick

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Vermont Forecast November 9 to December 18

Source: Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - November 9, 2020 18

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Canadian ThanksgivingA Cautionary Tale

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Canadian Thanksgiving● Celebrated Second Monday in October

(October 12, 2020)

● Families gather for a Thanksgiving meal

● Turkey is the mainstay and traditional Canadian Football doubleheader played

● Celebrated to different degrees across Canada

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Oct. 12th

Oct. 12th

Oct. 12th

Oct. 12th

Case Growth After Canadian Thanksgiving

Case Growth After Canadian Thanksgiving

Oct. 12th Oct. 12th

Oct. 12th Oct. 12th

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RESTART VERMONT

1. Syndromic Surveillance2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates3. Percentage of New Positive Tests4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity

Reopening Metrics

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Data Point 1: Syndromic Surveillance● Summary: Percentage of visits with COVID-19 like illness and Influenza diagnosis● Warning Flag: Percentage of visits exceeding 4% for multiple consecutive days

Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 6, 2020 *Data from UVMHN may be incomplete or delayed

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Data Point 2: Viral Growth and Reproductive Rates ● Summary: Case growth measured by daily, 3-day, 7-day, and effective reproductive rate (Rt)● Warning Flags: Sustained viral growth that would lead to

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Data Point 3: Percentage of New Positive Tests● Summary: Percent of tests resulting in a new positive case● Warning Flags: New positives represent >5% of daily results

Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 10, 2020

Increased test positivity

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Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds● Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds● Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%

Source: Vermont Department of Health—November 10, 2020

Vermont Testing

Source: Vermont Dept. of Health—November 10, 2020; results reported to VDH daily 30

*Data from UVMHN may be incomplete or delayed

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Vermont Flu Vaccine Data

32Source: Vermont Department of Health & ADS; Immunization Registry; Measured from July 1 to November 1, 2019 & 2020

164,183Year to Date

171,390*Year to Date

2019 Actual

2020 Goal

+4.4% Flu Vaccination Increase Compared to Same Time in 2019

52.7%* to 2020 goal

*Data from UVMHN may be incomplete or delayed

Ahead of Last Year

Behind Last Year

33Note: Data from UVMHN may be incomplete or delayed

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K-12 & Higher Education Update

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Covid-19 Cases in K-12 Public Schools Across Northern New England

Vermont54 Cases

41 Schools

New Hampshire406 Cases

186 Schools

Maine211 Cases

93 SchoolsSource: VT, NH and ME K-12 Dashboards

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Vermont Higher Education Restart Weekly Covid-19 Testing Among Students

Source: Vermont Colleges and Universities (presentation switched to Tuesday on September 22, 2020)

178,701 Total Tests

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Vermont Higher Education Restart Weekly Covid-19 Positives Among Students

Source: Vermont Colleges and Universities (presentation switched to Tuesday on September 22, 2020)

140 Total Cases

38Source: Vermont Colleges and Universities (presentation switched to Tuesday on September 22, 2020)

140 Total Cases

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Total Tests Positives Positivity RateNew

Hampshire*

Maine*

Vermont

122,960

178,701 140

107

463

0.09%

0.12%

0.08%

Northern New England Higher Education Update

* Includes NH & ME colleges & universities that publicly provide COVID-19 testing data.

370,762

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Vermont Higher Education Restart Institution Data as of November 10, 2020