Crackdown on Islamist sect in northwestern Nigeria raises risk of Boko Haram attacks and recruitment in Niger state

Analysis:

Muazu Babangida Aliyu, the governor of Niger state, announced the

seizure of 200 hectares of land in the Lapai area of northwestern Nigeria

from an Islamic group Madinatu Muheenu Nibassiya (aka Nibrassiya

Huda), and the arrest of the group's leader, according to a media report on

4 August in the Daily Times, a local news agency. Aliyu, a northerner,

made the announcement at a reception for state tribal leaders at his

residence. He informed his guests that the seized lands would be used to

build a university named after the former Nigerian president, Ibrahim

Badamasi Babangida, and a primary school. Aliyu described his

government's action as a pre-emptive move to prevent the group from

becoming radicalised and threatening the peace of the state. According to

a local IHS source, the sect Madinatu Muheenu Nibassiya has been

operating since 2008 from its base in a forest in the Lapai area. The

membership of the sect is no more than 500 people from Niger state, with

only two members from Kwara State. Aliyu ordered troops to dislodge the

sect on 3 June, whose leader claimed to be the "new Prophet Mohammed".

Risk Implications:

Aliyu's action is an attempt to distance himself from criticism that

northerners are largely behind the escalation in attacks by the militant

Islamist group Boko Haram, aiming to undermine Nigerian president

Goodluck Jonathan's chances of re-election in the presidential elections in

February 2015. Aliyu has been one of Jonathan's critics and had

threatened in November 2013 to leave the ruling party and join the new

opposition All Progressives Congress, a merger of the country's four main

opposition political parties. His crackdown aims to demonstrate his state's

support for Jonathan's fight against Boko Haram. However, his action

raises the risk of attracting attacks by Boko Haram militants to Niger state

and potentially opens the way for the radical group to recruit members of

the disbanded sect. In the northwest of Nigeria, Boko Haram kidnapped a

British and an Italian engineers working for an Italian construction firm in

May 2011 in Kebbi state. They were later killed in a failed rescue attempt.

In Niger state, Boko Haram's first reported attack was in July 2011 robbing

a local branch of Unity Bank and raiding a nearby police station. In July

2012, the group carried out a co-ordinated improvised explosive device

attack at the police headquarters of Zone 10, in the Marna area of Sokoto

metropolis, and Unguwar Rogo police station in Sokoto state, resulting in

four deaths.

Danny Cheung Asia Pacific Director Corporate Communications 8 Marina View #12-01 | Asia Square Tower 1 | Singapore Phone: +65 6439 6192 | Mobile: +65 9171 3200 Danny.Cheung@ihs.com

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