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Craig ConnerFlood Risk ManagementProgram Manager San Francisco District
9 December 2013
US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
San Francisco District
Meeting the Rising Bay Tidein San Mateo CountySea Level Rise Planningand Corps Programs
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
How Much Does Sea Level Change Really Matter?
Corps of Engineers’ general approach:
► Become better informed using our science agency partners.
► Start changing our way of thinking at all project levels.
• existing projects and new projects
► Think in larger time and spatial scales.
► Consider cumulative system effects, connectivity, and extremes.
► Build collaborative relationships and prepare for adaptability.
► Screen large body of projects and address methodically
GOAL: Realistic acknowledgement of residual risk, and the potential for impacts on performance and costs
► Path to develop appropriate plans and approach to adaptation.
► Be aware and ready if large scale impacts are possible.
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EC 1165-2-212 - Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs
Three estimates of future SLC must be calculated for all Civil Works Projects within the extent of estimated tidal influence:
► Low – Extrapolated ► Intermediate-Modified
NRC I Curve ► High - Modified
NRC III Curve
Current guidance does notassign a probability to each curve.
► Scenario-based approach required
1.5m
0.5m
0.2m
The USACE sea-level change curve calculator (3 scenarios) can be reached at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Comparison of Peer-Reviewed Research Estimates:GLOBAL Sea Level Rise by 2100
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Alternatives Development & SelectionScenario
1Scenario
2Scenario
3
Alt A ☺ -2 -20
Alt B -1 ☺ -5
Alt C -10 -6 ☺
Good scenario-based planning should consider:► Adaptive Management► Facilitating Future
Modifications► Designing for the Future
Example of Least Regrets Approach
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Possible Planning Approaches[One-Time {Precautionary} & Phased Investment {Managed Adaptive}]
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Phased Investment AnalysisResilient Levee Prism targeting Curve H vs. Curves 1 or 3
Result: Assuming the smallest plan considered is an RLP targeting Curve H, if in 25 years you can’t raise the levee 2.2’ for less than $10M, then you should build to Curve 3 now.
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How Can the Corps Help?
LARGE Projects (~$11M to ~$1B): General Investigation (GI)
Small Projects (~$2M to ~$10M): Continuing Authorities Program (CAP)
Technical Assistance (~$1K to ~$100K): Floodplain Management Services (FPMS) Planning Assistance to States (PAS) Interagency and International Services (IIS)
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General Investigations (GI)
GI advantage: no funding limits on project and more flexibility in modifying project
GI disadvantage: has a longer approval process than a CAP {Requires Congressional Approval}
Recon (100% Fed) Feasibility (50% - 50%) Construction (65% - 35% + LERRD, 50% max)
Must go through entire budget cycle (submit 2 FYs, then start Recon Construction)
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Continuing Authorities Program (CAP)
CAP advantage: Corps already has authority CAP disadvantage: limited funds and must meet
authority guidelines Provides authority to modify Corps project to
improve the quality of the environment $5M to $7M project limits ($25M to $50M
national limit) Cost-share (50%-50%) study, (65% to 75%-35%
to 25%+LERRD) construction
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Projects Challenges
How do we optimize Civil Works projects to be resilient to climate change with limited project resources?
Answer: Shared Responsibility between Federal, State, & Local agencies – need better collaboration and leveraging of programs, data, and funds.
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US Army Corps of EngineersSan Francisco District
Contact Information
Craig Conner (415) 503-6903
http://nfrmp.us
Tom Kendall (415) 503-6822
