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CRedCarbon Reduction
Climate Change MitigationWhat the UK is Doing
the Carbon Reduction Programme
Keith ToveyН.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наукФакультет экологических исследований
Университета Восточной АнглииEnergy Science Director,
Low Carbon Innovation Centre
CRed
2
Climate Change Mitigation
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
• the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
• Climate Change – a short review
3
Future Global Warming Rates
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(ppm
)
4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001
5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T
emp
erat
ure
Ris
e (o C
)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
actual
actual
actual
predicted
predicted
predicted Is Global Warming man made?
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity
6
19792003
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
7
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
• the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
Climate Change Mitigation
8
• In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of
5.1 kW
• In USA it is 10.6 kW
1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy
• In Europe it is 5.7 kW• In Russia it is also 5.7 kW
• Globally it is around 2 kW
• ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming
International Comparisons
9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
kW per Head
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
GD
P p
er h
ead
(U
S$
(95)
USA
Russia
Canada
China
India
UK
Japan
Germany
Poland
France
Qatar
Other EU Countries
Nordic EU New EU
Mediterranean EU
Energy - GDP Relationships
International Comparisons
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Primary Energy per Capita (kW)
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s pe
r C
apit
a
Other EU
EU nordic
EU med
EU new
Carbon Emissions per unit of Primary Energy
Qatar
USA
Canada
Australia
Russia
Japan
France
Germany
UK
Developing Countries
Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Energy
International Comparisons
11
Electricity Emission Factors• Russia ~ 0.50 kg/kWh• China ~ 0.87kg/kWh• UK ~ 0.52 kg/kWh
Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Different Countries
coal79.4%
Coal19%
Hydro17%
Gas45%
Oil3%
Nuclear16%
Russia
Nuclear21%
Coal37%
Oil2%
Gas33%
Other2%Hydro
1%
Renewables4%
UK
Hydro 14.9%
Nuclear2.3%
Oil3% Other
0.4%
China
12
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
• the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
Climate Change Mitigation
13
Energy Saving: The UK Perspective
UK has become more efficient in using energy to generate wealth over past 50 years.
Generates the same wealth with 45% of energy as in 1950.
Improvement ~ 1.45% per annum
14
Energy Consumption: The UK Perspective
Wealth of UK increased uniformly with energy in 1950s and 1960s
Major infra-structure projects in late 1960s - early 1970s
1979 - 1992 restructuring followed by increase efficiency
1992 - increased conservation
15
Change in Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in UK1990
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
renewables
other
1999
2005
Major changes in the Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation
16
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
•Carbon Emission Factors for Electricity Generation
• Coal ~ 1000 g/kWh
• Oil ~ 850 g/kWh
• Gas ~ 540 g/kWh
• Gas (CCGT) ~ 420 g/kWh
• Nuclear ~ 4 g/kWh
Electricity Options for the Future
From 1990 to 1999
• Substantial fall in carbon dixoide emissions
• Despite 23% increase in demand
• However, once change is made saving cannot be made again
• Hence rise in recent years
1990coal
oil
gas
nuclear
hydro
renewables
other
2005
17
Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ele
ctri
city
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
TW
h)
18
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
Actual
High Growth
Low Growth
The Gas Scenario
Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.
Replacements for ageing plant
Additions to deal with demand changes
Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010
20% renewables by 2020
Low Growth – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010
But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)
High Growth – Business as Usual
257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)
Electricity Options for the Future
Gas Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
bil
lio
n c
ub
ic m
etr
es Actual
High Growth
Low Growth
19
Low Growth Scenario
Other Options
High Growth Scenario
Business as Usual
New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MT
on
ne
s C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mto
nn
es C
O2
ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix
25% Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.
Electricity Options for the Future
20
Energy Saving: Why is it important for the UK?
• The UK has been self sufficient in energy
• Under present trends the UK will be a substantive importer of natural gas ~ 80% and oil by 2020
• It makes sense to reduce energy demand and still remain competitive economically.
• Reducing energy demand will also see a reduction in carbon dioxide - the main contributor to Global Warming
• The Government has set targets and provided mechanisms to provide grants for individuals and industry.
• However, more could be done.
21
• Government Targets• 10.4% of total electricity by 2010
• unlikely to be met - at best 6 - 7%
• 20% by 2020
Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market
Onshore 1.5 MW turbine
60 MW offshore Wind Farm at Yarmouth commissioned early 2005.
New Wave Powered device - launched 6th August 2004
22
• Renewables Obligation– Requires all suppliers to provide a minimum percentage of
electricity from New Renewables.
– In 2006 - 2007 the percentage will be 6.7%, but only around 3% is being achieved.
• Target is increased each year
– In 2006 – 2007 Suppliers will fined at 3.324 p per kWh (1.662 Roubles) per kWh for any shortfall.
• Fine is index linked – in 2002 – 3 it was 3.0 p per kWh
– This is introducing a new market in the trading of Renewable Obligation Certificates - issued as proof of generation.
Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market
23
The Regulator
OFGEM
SUPPLIERS
Trader and Brokers
Renewable Generator
Notifies Regulator how much generated.
ROC’s issued
Sells ROCs to Trader
Sells Electricity with or without ROCs
Notifies OFGEM of compliance -i.e. ROCs or pays FINE
Buys ROCs from Trader
FINES recycled in proportion to ROCs held
Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)
24
• £12 - 15 per MWh Recycled fines
• £1.50+ per MWh Embedded benefits
• £4.30 per MWh Climatic Change Levy
• £33.24 per MWh Value of ROC (2006)
• £40 - £45 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price
Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ £2-£3 per MWh
Value of Renewable Generation about £90 per MWh i.e. about twice whole sale price
Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)
25
• Climate Change – a short review
• International Comparisons
• Issues affecting the UK
• the Carbon Reduction Programme
• Conclusions
Climate Change Mitigation
26
• Started in Norwich• Now also in Suffolk, Camden, Essex, Cheshire and others
• Elsewhere in World:
– USA (North Carolina), Japan (Okinawa) China (Shanghai)
The Carbon Reduction Project
• Aims to Reduce CO2 emissions by 60% to combat Climate Change
• Promoting Approriate Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation
• Promoting Awareness
• Working with businesses, Public Bodies, individuals
27
• Understandable Language
Energy Saving: Awareness / Education / Advice
A mobile phone charger left on
------ up to 25 kg CO2 a year
Standby on television > 60 kg per year
Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of a balloon)
A tumble dryer uses four times as much energy as the equivalent washing machine
- use the dryer sparingly
Boiling an extra cup full of water causes the emission of 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide.
and the domestic sectorEach person in UK emits 9 tonnes of CO2 per year
~ 5 hot air balloons
Russia
10.5 tonnes
~ 6 balloons
Community Engagement - Reepham
Total emitted by residents of Reepham 13288 tonnes of CO2
= 7382 hot air balloons of CO2 Reepham is now developing a zero-carbon ambition
in the Community
Flying 11%
Heating/ hot water 40%
Other household
energy 28% Car 21%
CO2 by proportion
29
EngineGenerator
36% Electricity
50% Heat
GAS
Engine heat Exchanger
Exhaust Heat
Exchanger
11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses
86%
efficient
Localised generation makes use of waste heat.
Reduces conversion losses significantly
61% Flue Losses
36%
efficient
at the University
30
Conversion efficiency improvements
1997/98 electricity gas oil Total
MWh 19895 35148 33
Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277
Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699
Electricity Heat
1999/2000
Total site
CHP generatio
n
export
import boilers CHP oil total
MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission
factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277
CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422
Before installation
After installation
This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide
at the University
31
Conversion efficiency improvements
Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA
Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectivelyMore electricity could be generated in summer
at the University
32
A 1 MW Adsorption chiller uses waste heat to provide chilling
1 MW 吸附冷却器
The Adsorption chiller will save around 700 tonnes CO2
reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated
吸附冷却器可为东滩提供空调系统 每一个可减少排放 700 吨 CO2
at the University
33
ZICER a very low energy building• Designed to emit less than 50% of CO2 compared to conventional
building
• Good Management has reduced emissions even further to less than 25% of normal
• Includes 34 kW of Photovoltaic Generation on top of building
• Plans to install 4 – 6 MW of Wind Generation
• Plans to install biomass CHP
at the University: Other Projects to reduce CO2
34
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
£-
£200,000
£400,000
£600,000
£800,000
£1,000,000
£1,200,000
£1,400,000Cumulative CO2 savings
Cumulative Cost Savings
and the Business Sector
x 1200 saving
Packaging
35
Better Route Planning 10% 50%
More efficient vehicles 15% 58%
Action CO2 saving
Cumulative saving
Using 50% Biofuels 35% 35%
Advanced Driver Training 15% 45%
and the Transport Sector
Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
02/Jun 22/Jun 12/Jul 01/Aug 21/Aug 10/Sep 30/Sep
km/lt
r
Driver 1
Driver 2
Small things add up! A saving of 58% is possible
36
Making a Pledge
37
and a vision for the future in China
Visitor Centre & Solar Research
访客中心和太阳能研究中心
Energy River – Greenhouse of the future
能源之河 - 未来温室
Municipal Building with support below mound
市政废物区和人造山下的支持区域Biomass Building with
storage area beneath hill
生物质能区和位于人造山下的储存区域
Biogas Building with support area beneath hill沼气区和位于人造山下的
支持区域
Main Entrance
主入口
An integrated power station, stunning architecture, a visitor centre and theme park
38
And FinallyLao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
If we do not change direction then we will end up where we are heading and the adverse consequences of Climate Change
Combating Climate Change requires• Promotion of Appropriate Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation
• Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the Future
• Promoting Awareness to use energy more effectively
• Supporting the aims of the Programme
VISIT the WEB Site www.cred-uk.org
This presentation will be displayed on above WEB Site
>> follow Academic Links
Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови [email protected]