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CRedCarbon Reduction
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director:School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
St Matthews Church October 17th 2007
Energy security and climate change: the hard choices facing us.
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvCRed
Recipient of James Watt Medal5th October 2007
2
19792003
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
3
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could
supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect
this
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently
35% )
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Wholesale Price of Electricity since NETA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Bas
eloa
d P
rice
s (£
/MW
h)
first 5 years
last 12 months
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.
4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
5
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
6
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% + available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
7
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
8
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
9
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Output (MWh)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
01/0
1/20
02
15/0
1/20
02
29/0
1/20
02
12/0
2/20
02
26/0
2/20
02
12/0
3/20
02
26/0
3/20
02
09/0
4/20
02
23/0
4/20
02
07/0
5/20
02
21/0
5/20
02
04/0
6/20
02
18/0
6/20
02
02/0
7/20
02
16/0
7/20
02
30/0
7/20
02
13/0
8/20
02
27/0
8/20
02
10/0
9/20
02
24/0
9/20
02
08/1
0/20
02
22/1
0/20
02
05/1
1/2
002
19/1
1/2
002
03/1
2/20
02
17/1
2/20
02
31/1
2/20
02
Out
put
(MW
h pe
r da
y)
Output 78 000 GWh per annum
Sufficient for 13500 house in Orkney
Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
10
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
11
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
12
Options for Renewable Energy: Solar Thermal
• Performance of an actual solar collector 9th December 2006 – 13th October 2007
• Average gain (over 3 years) is 2.245 kWh per day
• Central Heating Boiler rarely needed for Hot Water from Easter to ~ 1st October
• More Hot Water used – the greater amount of solar energy is gained
• Optimum orientation for solar hot water collectors for most houses is NOT due South
13
Options for Renewable Energy: Solar Thermal
• Significant surplus of energy in summer• Explore increasing temperature limit
provided there is an anti-scald device fitted.• Training needed to educate users to get optimum from solar collector in mid- season (setting of Central Heating Hot Water timers)• Energy/Carbon benefits to be gained by providing solar hot water on a multi- house basis.
14
Actual Nuclear
Projected Nuclear
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
Renewables
New Nuclear?
New Coal ???
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy SecurityThere is a
looming capacity shortfall
Even with a full deployment of
renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per
house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased
household size
15
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
16
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
17
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.
In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person
Is this Fair?
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
18
Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.
• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year
~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
19
Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
Micro Wind
Micro CHP
Heat Pumps
20
Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
• Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
21
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
22
Involve the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly
powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and
other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed
23
The Behavioural Dimension
Electricity Consumption
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7No. people
Ave
rage
kW
h/m
onth
• Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.
• Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.
• Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.
• Education/Awareness is important
24
Target Day
Results of the “Big Switch-Off”
With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possibleHow can these be translated into long term savings?
25
26
Personal Attitudes to Energy Use can be significant
27
Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change
28
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1
Lighting
Refrigeration
Entertainment
Miscellaneous
Air/Public Travel
Washing/Drying
Private Car
Heating
Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change
29
Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can you do collectively as a Church or Community?
Visit the CRed WEB Site
Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future
saving energy
Adopting technical solutionsPromoting Awareness
Promoting appropriate renewable energy
www.cred-uk.org
St Pauls Church, Tuckswood
30
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Conclusions
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
32
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
Conclusions
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
33Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington
34
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Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient
Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)
Oxford English Dictionary
Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind
Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%
Sizewell B achieves 32%
A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best
Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient
37
Have you got a hot water cylinder to supply hot water?
If there is no cylinder – you will have a combi boiler unless the water is heated by electricity.
You can have both condensing and non condensing boilers (either combi or not)
To work out if you have a condensing boiler – have a look at the exhaust when the boiler is running.
If there are clouds of water vapour coming from it then it is a condensing boiler.
A condensing boiler will be 85 – 92% efficient
A normal boiler will be only 65 – 75% efficient
How can you tell if you have a condensing boiler
38
How can you tell if you have cavity walls?
• A solid wall • A cavity wall• With insulation