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CRedcarbon reduction 1
The Carbon Reduction ProjectHard Choices Ahead
Energy Science Director:
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?
Prospect Village Hall - 3rd/4th November 2006
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
CRed
2
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(ppm
)
CRedcarbon reduction 3
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T
emp
erat
ure
Ris
e (o C
)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
actual
actual
actual
predicted
predicted
predictedIs Global Warming man made?
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity
4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation
Source: Tim
Osborne, C
RU
Change in precipitation 1961-2001
5
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich
Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich City would be playing water polo!
6
19792003
Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite
imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
7
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)
available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade
~ 2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal falling rapidly -
coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect
this
potential contribution to
Electricity Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Nuclear Generating Capacity
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
Projection
Actual
Wholesale Electricity Prices since NETA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
£/M
Wh
8
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
9
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km
But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
10
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 50% + available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
11
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
12
Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
13
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
14
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –
Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
15
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
16
Raising Awareness
• Computers do NOT switch off when using the soft “SHUT DOWN”. Typically they will waste 60 kg CO2 a year.
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 20 kWh per year ~ 1000 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
17
Our Choices: They are difficult
• NETA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip. This loss amounts to around 1.5 times the total installed capacity of wind at present.
• NETA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling.
• Experience from Denmark shows that the normal maximum change in any one hour from Wind Output is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year. With a larger country area the figures for diverse wind generation will be less in UK.
One will not save Carbon Dioxide because power stations are running in case they are needed.
• There is very little truth in this. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependant on the output of a fossil fuel power station. If it is running under low load it will emit only a very small amount of extra CO2.
• Allowing for this, the effect of standby reserve will amount to a maximum of 15 – 20 gms per kWh of Wind Energy compared to 430 for gas or 1000 for coal.
• A substantial saving is made.
Renewable Energy: The Issues
Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply
18
Our Choices: They are difficult
• Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations.
• the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.
• in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines.
•Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year
•Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles
•British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed
Wind Energy: The Issues
Wind Turbines kill birds
19
Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive
impact on the town in a number of ways.
I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of
the area.
Our Choices: They are difficultAffect House Prices
• Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham Area say they have a positive effect on house prices.
20
Our Choices: They are difficult
Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient
Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)
Oxford English Dictionary
Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind
Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%
Sizewell B achieves 32%
A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best
Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient
21
• Capacity Factor issue
• Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% in East to 35%+ in West ande 40% in Scotland
• Sizewell B is off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of 700 + turbines.
• A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor of 5%
22
Our Choices: They are difficult
• Wind Turbines are beautiful!
» Wind Turbines are Ugly!
• What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?.
• Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia
• The North Norfolk Coal Field
• Increased Famine
• 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025
• Increased incidence of extreme weather events.
23
Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
Micro Wind
Micro CHP
Heat Pumps
24
• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity
Involve the local Community
25
Conclusions
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
26
WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links
• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room
Conclusions
Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."