CRIMINAL JUSTICE IN NUMBERS Or: How not to be duped… Week 6 SO536 Criminal Justice in Modern Britain, 2014-15 Ben Baumberg Check recording on Panapto

CRIMINAL JUSTICE IN NUMBERS Or: How not to be duped…

Week 6SO536 Criminal Justice in Modern Britain,

2014-15Ben Baumberg

Check recording on Panapto

© University of Kent Q-Step Centre 2015

Numbers are everywhere

• In the news (as we’ll see)• In academic criminology – inc. SO536– “Prison suicide rises by 64% in a year” [Wk1, Crime in

the news in summer 2014]

– “If 100 crimes are committed, 50 will be reported to the police , 30 will be actually recorded as crimes by the police, 7 will be 'cleared up', 3 will result in a conviction in the courts” [Wk2]


But numbers often mislead…

How to respond to claim based on a new crime statistic:

1. What does this number measure?

2. Where does this number come from?

3. What other explanations are there for the claim you’re investigating?


But numbers often mislead…





In this lecture, we start applying these principles to understanding crime trends


Cf. (one) assessment…

Methodological critique, on custody data:– What is the overall argument of the authors?– What data is the article based on?– What are the strengths and weaknesses of the data

source? – Do you think the argument is well supported by the

data provided or not and does that apply to all aspects of their argument or only some?

– If you wanted to know more about the topic, what questions would you like the authors to address in subsequent work?


CRITICALLY INTERPRETING CRIME TRENDS


Michael Howard, 2004

“Criminologists frequently try to down play the problem by saying that the fear of crime is actually greater than crime itself. They appear blind to the fact that disorder and violence have became a fact of daily life in many communities across Britain. The most reliable crime statistics - those crimes actually recorded by the police - show that crime in England and Wales has risen by almost 850,000 in the last five years…most damning of all, violent crime has increased by 83 per cent.”

Tory leader,Middlesbrough speech, 10th Aug 2004; http://www.politicallyincorrect.me.uk/howardspeech.htm


“…the most reliable?”

• “…officers might have persuaded prisoners to admit to undetected crimes known as TICs: offences taken into consideration.

• “If a defendant admits the offences the TICs are marked as solved in detection statistics. The suspect receives credit for admitting the offences and is not prosecuted for them at a later date.

• “…TICs accounted for 35% of domestic burglaries.”

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/nov/15/kent-police-arrested-statistics-irregularities


Counting & trends


This still happens!

Conservatives in 2010 election campaign– Grayling: I will "continue to use recorded crime statistics,

because they reflect an important reality; that the number of violent crimes reported to police stations…has increased substantially over the past decade, even taking into account any changes to data collection” !

Labour in recent weeks– [Yvette Cooper, the Shadow Home Secretary] : “…now we

see the police recording 11 per cent more violent crimes…Crime is changing and it is clear – with the huge divergence in recorded crime and the survey – the figures are not picking it up.”http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lies-damn-lies-and-tory-crime-statistics-1889927.html and

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11165613/Rapes-now-at-their-highest-ever-level-ONS-figures-reveal.html


Beyond recorded crime

• The British Crime Survey (CSEW)

• 35,000 adults + 3,000 children

• Experience of crime in past 12mths

• Now run by ONS

• Gets at crime itself – not recording

• Consistent methodology for trends


Crime trends from victims (I)

Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2014 (released 17 July 2014) – on reading list


Crime trends from victims (II)

BCS “shows unequivocally that major types of crime have fallen dramatically since 1995: • vehicle crime down by half• house burglary down by 47%• assault down by 43%• wounding down by 28%• vandalism down 27%.”

Prof Mike Hough, Guardian, 14th October 2004

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/oct/14/prisonsandprobation.conservatives


But CSEW is not perfect…

• Crimes CSEW misses by design:– Victims not asked: homeless, in institutions, murder

& other deaths (kids ‘til 2009)– ‘Victimless’: prostitution, drug-taking, organisations

(sexual offences, cyber-crime)

• Why CSEW isn’t simply ‘the truth’:– Response rate of 75% - who doesn’t take part?– Representing crime as ‘events’– Deliberate untruths (fatigue, concealing)– Accidental untruths (unaware, memory)


The extreme view

• Argues CSEW misses more violence than it captures

• “In general, those who hold forth confidently about the falls in violence are white, middle-aged, middle class males who, for a number of reasons…are far less likely to be victims of violence than they were as teenagers. Unsurprisingly they are inclined to believe official data that reinforces their own experiences.”

• “I am sceptical of talk about overall rises and falls in crime”

Richard Garside, Director of the Centre for Crime & Justice Studies 24th April 2014; http://www.crimeandjustice.org.uk/resources/violence-decline


So what do you do?

1. Understand where numbers come from2. Which explanation is most plausible:• Recorded crime trend is right?

…but recording practices change• Crime survey is right?

…not perfect as a measure of all crime……but comparable across time

A matter of judgement


Don’t reify ‘crime’…

“We are also clear that there can never be a measure of ‘overall’ or ‘total’ crime. There will always be crimes not adequately captured in the statistics and a single total number would bring together a very wide range of acts and degrees of seriousness in a not very meaningful way. What matters – and is attainable – is to develop national crime statistics series that have clearly understood strengths and weaknesses and are consistent enough over time to provide trend data for whatever area of crime each measures”

Smith review of crime statistics, cited by Maguire 2012:239 (on reading list)


…be open to new evidence…

Homicide data from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9411649/Graphic-how-the-murder-rate-has-fallen.html Hospital data graph from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27119689, data available at http://www.crimeandjustice.org.uk/sites/crimeandjustice.org.uk/files/Violence%20in%20England%20and%20Wales%202013%20%20NVSN%20Annual%20Report.pdf


Being duped?

BCS/CSEW data visualised at http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jul/14/crime-statistics-england-wales


CRIME TRENDS IN 2014


The story in 2014


Numbers headlines

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29642455


Victim survey trends?

• Obviously challenging:– Willingness to report (see Sylvia Walby)– ONS: “Due to the small number of sexual offences

identified in CSEW, estimates of the volume of incidents are too unreliable to report”

Question text from CSEW questionnaire 2012/13; quote from Crime Statistics, Focus on Violent Crime and Sexual Offences, 2012/13, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_352364.pdf

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EXPLAINING CRIME TRENDS


Why has (most) crime dropped in the past 20 years?


A near-global decline?

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21582004-crime-plunging-rich-world-keep-it-down-governments-should-focus-prevention-not

But remember the problems with recorded crime data…


Victim surveys internationally

• International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS)

• Some (but not all) countries• Not fully comparable: – ONS: “important differences

remained in the approach to sampling, translation of questions into different national languages, interview lengths and response rates which make comparisons problematic.”ONS quote from http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-march-2014/stb-

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But why?

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21582004-crime-plunging-rich-world-keep-it-down-governments-should-focus-prevention-not


1. Preliminary evidence

Reasonable grounds to consider it

2. Cross-national test

Works for different countries

3. Prior increase testMakes sense for previous

crime increase

4. Phone theft / e-crimes test

Makes sense that some crimes increasing

5. Varying timing / trajectories test

Makes sense given nature & timing of falls

http://www.crimesciencejournal.com/content/2/1/5


Why has (most) crime dropped in the past 20 years?

Go and look for the claims and the evidence, and

make a judgement!


Take-home message





Apply this to your seminar task this week!


Counting & trends

“Recorded crime has gone up over the past five years because the police have changed the way that they count crime. In particular, they altered their "counting rules" in 1998, and introduced a national crime recording standard from 2002. They previously rejected victims' reports of crime if they doubted them; now, under the NCRS, these are taken at face value…”

Prof Mike Hough, Guardian, 14th October 2004

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/oct/14/prisonsandprobation.conservatives


Does non-coverage matter?

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-june-2014/info-what-does-csew-cover.html

Documents

CRIMINAL JUSTICE IN NUMBERS Or: How not to be duped… Week 6 SO536 Criminal Justice in Modern Britain, 2014-15 Ben Baumberg Check recording on Panapto