Cross-border HE flows between Wales and England: issues of location, supply, and student

characteristics

Presentation to WISERD, 6 January 2017

Susan Whittaker, Centre for Research in Education Inclusion and Diversity, University of Edinburgh

Background and data

• Part of a UK-wide study.

• HESA student census data – 1996-2012.

• U21 full-time entrants to HEIs.

• Multiple imputation for missing data: parental social class, whether parent has HE qualification, attainment group (UCAS tariff).

• Usual caveats apply to the social class and parental education data.

• N young FT movers: 6100; N mature FT movers: 900.

Today:

• Patterns and destinations of outward flows.

• Characteristics of movers from Wales.

• Patterns and destinations of inward flows.

• Characteristics of movers in from England.

Cross-border flows across the UK

Percentage of young full-time entrants in each local authority of domicile who are cross-border movers, 2012

Main directions of UK cross-border flows, young full-time entrants 2012

Wales-England flows: 1996-2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Movers-out Movers-in

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Movers-out Movers-in

Percentage of young full-time Wales-domiciled entrants at RUK HEIs (movers-out) and RUK-domiciled entrants at Welsh HEIs (movers-in) –five years of entry

Number of young full-time Wales-domiciled entrants at RUK HEIs (movers-out) and RUK-domiciled entrants at Welsh HEIs (movers-in) –five years of entry

Mobility by local authority domicile

• Ranges from 15% of young entrants from Blaenau Gwent to 70% of entrants from Flintshire.

• Over half of entrants from 6 counties were movers-out:

70.4 69.2 68.458.4 57 54

01020304050607080

Destinations of Welsh movers: regions and institutions

1

2.8

10.1

2.7

4.3

1.2

3.8

5

10.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

8

5

4 4

3 3 3 3 3

2 2 2 2 2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Percentage of Wales-domiciled 2012 full-time young entrants entering HEIs in each English region

Percentage of Wales-domiciled 2012 full-time young entrants to the most frequently entered English HEIs

Institutional supply by average UCAS entry tariff

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

Lowest 1.07 0.4 1.34 0

Low 1.02 0.58 0.98 1.83

Medium 0.98 1.23 1.29 0.16

High 0.95 1.16 1.04 2.1

Highest 0.98 2.24 0 0

Institution tariff group supply ratio, by national system, young full-time entrants, 2012

Distribution measure of institution type in each country compared to whole UK.

For example, the percentage of UK students who entered Welsh low tariff HEIs divided by the percentage of UK students to all UK low tariff HEIs.

Movers and stayers by institution tariff group

0

16.9

20.7

27.6

34.8

17.5

24.4

14.8

33.1

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Highest tariff (>450tariff points)

High tariff (350-450tariff points)

Medium tariff (300-349tariff points)

Low tariff (275-299tariff points)

Lowest tariff (<250tariff points)

Stayed in Wales Moved out of Wales

Percentage of Wales-domiciled stayers and movers by institution tariff group entered, young full-time entrants 2012

Relative supply of fields of study by country

Field of study supply ratio, by national system, young full-time entrants 2012

The percentage of UK entrants to each field of study in each country system divided by the percentage of UK entrants to the field in the whole of the UK. Indicates ‘under-supply’ and ‘over-supply’ relative to all UK supply.

00.511.522.533.5

Medicine and dentistry

Veterinary science

Agriculture and related subjects

Subjects allied to medicine

Biological sciences

Physical sciences

Mathematical sciences

Computer science

Engineering and technology

Architecture building and planning

Social studies

Law

Business and administrative studies

Mass communications/documentation

Education

Languages

Historical and philosophical studies

Creative arts and design

Wales Scotland Northern Ireland England

Movers and stayers by field of study

Percentage of stayers and movers entering fields of study, Wales-domiciled young full-time entrants 2012

1.1 0.8

6.1

13.9

5.4

1.9

5.85.1

0.9

7.7

5

11.8

2.1

10.3

5.54.9

11.7

3.2

1.8

9.310

7.3

2.9 2.7

6

1.9

7.1

4.8

8.7

2.7

4.4

6.35.8

14.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Stayers Movers-out

Characteristics of movers and stayers: descriptive summary

Stayers (%) Movers (%) Stayers (N) Movers (N)

Female 54.8 56.8 4650 3460

Male 45.2 43.2 3830 2635

Social class

Higher managerial and professional 17.9 26.7 1520 1630

Working class 30.2 20.5 2565 1255

Parental education

Parent with HE qualification 57.3 65.6 4865 4000

Ethnicity

White 93.6 91.8 7860 5570

BME 6.4 8.2 540 500

Attainment

Highest quintile 13 27.4 1105 1670

Lowest quintile 25.4 12.7 2155 775

Home area

Low participation area 13.2 8.8 1110 535

School type

Independent school 2.1 8.6 170 510

Total 58.2 41.8 8485 6100

Students’ social and educational background: probability of moving

.47.44

.39 .37.41 .42 .40

.65

.42.37

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Probability (marginal effect) of being a mover by social characteristics, estimated from logistic regression model for Wales–domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants

Other variables controlled in the model: gender, ethnicity, field of study entered, course level entered, average tariff points of institution entered. N=14383.

Students’ ethnicity and attainment: probability of moving

.41

.50.53

.33

.47 .45.51

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

.34

.40 .42 .43.49

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Lowest Low Medium High Highest

Probability (marginal effect) of being a mover by ethnic group, estimated from logistic regression model for Wales–domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants

Other variables controlled in the model: social class, parental education, school type, home area participation rate, field of study entered, course level entered, average tariff points of institution entered. N=14383.

Probability (marginal effect) of being a mover by attainment group, estimated from logistic regression model for Wales–domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants

Other variables controlled in the model: gender, social class, ethnicity, parental education, school type, home area participation rate, field of study entered, course level entered, average tariff points of institution entered. N=14383.

Movers to higher and lower tariff institutions

.73.67

.61 .57.66 .66 .64

.83

.67 .63 .66 .68

.50

.63 .64.71

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

.37 .35.31 .28

.32 .33 .32

.53

.33.26

.32.36

.26

.35 .34 .35.40

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Probability (marginal effect) of being a mover by social characteristics, estimated from logistic regression model for Wales–domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants to higher tariff institutions

Probability (marginal effect) of being a mover by social characteristics, estimated from logistic regression model for Wales–domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants to lower tariff institutions

Other variables controlled in models: gender, whether from low participation area, field of study entered. N higher: 3726. N lower: 7448.

Field of study revisited: controlling for characteristics and institution tariff

.55

.50

.38

.49

.39

.47

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Med & vet Allied to medicine Sciences Eng & tech Social sciences Arts

Probability (marginal effect) of mobility by field of study entered, estimated from regression model for Wales-domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants

Other variables controlled: gender, social class, ethnicity, parental education, attainment group, school type, whether from low participation area, course level, tariff score of institution entered. N=14383.

Field of study supply and institution type: probability of moving

-0.168

-0.267

-0.042

-0.3 -0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0

All institutions

Lower tariff

Higher tariff

Average marginal effect of field of study supply ratio on probability of being a mover, Wales-domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants to institution tariff groupings

Student characteristics and regional destinations

Percentage of Wales-domiciled 2012 young full-time movers by social characteristics – movers by region of HEI entered and selected characteristics

52

56

62 62

66

58

64

6966

71

39

48 48

29

34

25

10

25

12

8

13 13

19

11

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

North-West West Midlands South-West South-East London

Managerial and professional classes Parent with HE qualification High-highest attainment White BME

Mature students: flows

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Young movers-out Young movers-in Mature movers-out Mature movers-in

Percentage of mature and young full-time Wales-domiciled entrants at RUK HEIs (movers-out) and RUK-domiciled entrants at Welsh HEIs (movers-in) –five years of entry

Mature movers: home and destination regions

46

40 39

33

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1

5

3 3

2

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

NorthEast /

Yorkshireand

Humber

NorthWest

WestMidlandsand EastMidlands

GreaterLondon

SouthEast

SouthWest

Percentage of Wales-domiciled 2012 full-time mature entrants entering HEIs in English regions

Percentage of Wales-domiciled 2012 full-time mature entrants who were movers: counties of domicile with highest percentages of movers

Mature movers: Institutions entered

11

9

6

3 3 3

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10.813.4

28.4

47.4

8.3

12.6 14.2

46.7

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Highesttariff (>450

tariffpoints)

High tariff(350-450

tariffpoints)

Mediumtariff (300-349 tariff

points)

Low tariff(275-299

tariffpoints)

Lowesttariff (<250

tariffpoints)

Stayers Movers

Percentage of Wales-domiciled stayers and movers by institution tariff group entered, mature full-time entrants 2012

Percentage of Wales-domiciled 2012 full-time mature entrants to the most frequently entered English HEIs

Field of study entered: mature and young movers and stayers

3

23

16

6

40

129

25

1310

19

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Stayers Movers

2

6

27

6

37

22

69

23

8

2826

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Stayers Movers

Percentage of stayers and movers entering fields of study, Wales-domiciled mature full-time entrants 2012

Percentage of stayers and movers entering fields of study, Wales-domiciled young full-time entrants 2012

Comparing gender and ethnicity of mature and young movers

14.9

23.8

18.6 18.7

42.740.8 41.5

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Female Male White BME

Mature Young

Percentage of mature and young movers by gender and ethnicity, full-time entrants 2012

Domicile of English movers-out

• 5% of England-domiciled entrants crossed a border - 3.3% went to Welsh HEIs.

• They were most likely to come from LAs and regions close to Wales.

Percentage of England-domiciled entrants to Welsh HEIs by region of domicile

3.3

10

54

3 3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Percentage of young full-time 2012 entrants who were cross-border movers, by English LA domicile

English movers and stayers: fields of study

3.2

7.4

23.9

7.3

33.6

24.5

3.8 4.9

35.5

6.9

22.7

26.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Stayers Movers to Welsh HEIs

Percentage of England-domiciled 2012 young full-time stayers and movers to Wales entering field of study groups

English movers and stayers: institution type

Percentage of England-domiciled 2012 young full-time entrants who were movers and stayers by institution tariff groups entered

11.5

22

18.3

26.7

21.4

0

31.8

27.3

23.5

17.4

65.2

20.1

8.55.7

0.60

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Highest tariff (>450 tariffpoints)

High tariff (350-450 tariffpoints)

Medium tariff (300-349tariff points)

Low tariff (275-299 tariffpoints)

Lowest tariff (<250 tariffpoints)

Stayed in England Moved to Wales Moved to Scotland

Institutional destinations of England-domiciled movers

22

1311

108

76

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

58 5755

3936 36

30 29 2926

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Most frequently entered universities by England-domiciled movers, young full-time entrants 2012

UK institutions with the highest percentages of RUK entrants, all UK and international young full-time entrants 2012

Characteristics of England-domiciled movers and stayers

54.2 53.4 52.7

74

6.6

13.7

5.6

39 39.9

12.1 10.7

50.2

61.7 63.2

89.7

2.4 4.5 3.5

42.6

34.2

9.512.6

57.9

72.876.2

88.4

1.84.9 4.9

13.2

70.6

5.5

36.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Stayers Movers to Welsh HEIs Movers to Scottish HEIs

Percentage of England-domiciled young full-time stayers, movers to Wales and movers to Scotland by selected characteristics

Summary: Institutions and fields of study

• Cross-border mobility is likely to be proximal, in relation to home and destination area. Around half of movers are accounted for by 14 English HEIs.

• Movers are more likely than stayers to enter a wide range of fields of study, but particularly medical and arts subjects. Some of these fields of study have relatively low distribution in Wales compared to whole UK; and mainly associated with higher tariff institutions.

• Stayers are more likely to enter fields which are more common at lower tariff institutions, and overall more likely to be relatively well-supplied in Wales compared to the whole UK.

• Welsh HEIs are not represented among the highest tariff institutions, and there is relative under-supply of ‘low’ but not ‘lowest’ tariff institutions. Mobility is common to low, high and highest tariff institutions, which may reflect supply issues.

• The relationship between mobility and field of study supply is stronger for entrants to lower tariff institutions.

Summary: Student characteristics and differences in mobility

• Movers relatively socio-economically advantaged, compared to stayers entering both higher and lower tariff institutions – importance of financial and social resources in mobility?

• But parental HE not associated with mobility – a cultural resource not required when mobility is so normalised?

• Mobility associated with higher attainment levels than staying, across social characteristics – lack of provision in Wales or high attainers seeking positional goods?

• But a lot of social diversity amongst movers, particularly amongst those at NW HEIs mainly from North Wales – impact of proximity and lack of accessible institutions locally?

• Stronger relationship between socio-economic advantage and longer distance mobility – more important for the relatively privileged to move far, or for the less privileged to stay closer to home?

• BME students the most likely to leave Wales, particularly amongst lower tariff institution entrants, and more likely to go to London – importance of ethnic diversity of location for some BME students?

• But Chinese and Mixed/Other group students were relatively likely to enter higher tariff institutions – BME analysis masks differences between groups.

HE policy and mobility: summary points

• Portable student support and common applications system makes cross-border study feasible – for those from all backgrounds.

• But not all have equal capacity and propensity to move – staying as positive choice or constrained by circumstance.

• Less mobile students least likely to be able to respond to changes in funding or availability of places in Wales.

• Mobility to England may become more important for students from the DAs.

• But for Welsh students only, moving should not increase fee debt.

• If students leave Wales unwillingly due to unavailability of appropriate or preferred HE options, is it enough that student support is available to them?