31
STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Canada This Month National Political Overview Public Opinion Research Release Date: June 26, 2020 Field Dates: June 19 to June 23, 2020

CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

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Page 1: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Canada This Month

National Political OverviewPublic Opinion Research

Release Date: June 26, 2020Field Dates: June 19 to June 23, 2020

Page 2: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Canadian Politics in the time of COVID-19The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. Federally and provincially, governments are receiving high marks for their handling of the crisis, and this translates to changes for electoral politics as well. However, as the news shifts away from COVID-19 to other topics, we may be seeing the end of the rally effects that have influenced the political environment for months.

Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our June Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from June 19th to 23rd, with a weighted sample size of 1,200 and oversamples in BC and Alberta. A detailed methodology is provided in the appendix.

This report covers key results on how Canadians are rating their government’s handling of COVID-19, and the impacts that it is having for government satisfaction and vote choice.

2

Page 3: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Government ApprovalBoth federal and provincial governments are continuing to receive high marks for their handling of COVID-19, with BC and Atlantic provinces performing best.

3

Page 4: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the outbreak

Current data: June 2020

4

44%

58%

37%

65%

51%

75%

57%

70%

40%

49%

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

OntarioQuebec

Federal

BC

Alberta

[Federal government] Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the FEDERAL government in Canada? Would you say you are...?[Provincial governments] Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in [PROV]? Would you say you are...?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200] % who say they are “very/somewhat satisfied”

Page 5: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Provincial and Federal approval on COVID-19 has stayed high throughout the pandemic

% who approve of government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: Federal Vs. Provincial[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Current data: June 2020

5

50%

59% 61% 62% 61% 59% 58%63% 61%

63%69% 67% 69% 66% 68% 67% 69% 70%

March 16-18 March 24-26 March 31-April2

April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 May 15-20 May 29-June 1 June 19-23

Provincial

Federal

Page 6: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

COVID-19 Federal Tracking: Majority (61%) approve of the federal government’s handling, largely steady since late March

Now thinking about the federal government, do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Current data: June 2020

6

17%

21%

25%

26%

25%

24%

22%

26%

23%

33%

38%

37%

36%

37%

36%

36%

36%

38%

14%

12%

14%

13%

15%

14%

13%

13%

12%

16%

15%

12%

11%

11%

12%

12%

10%

11%

17%

11%

8%

10%

10%

11%

13%

11%

12%

3%

2%

5%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

4%

Mar-20

Mar-20 (2)

Apr-20

Apr-20 (2)

Apr-20 (3)

May-20

May-20 (2)

Jun-20

Jun-20 (2)

y

x

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know

% Approve

61%

63%

58%

59%

61%

62%

61%

59%

50%

Page 7: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

COVID-19 Federal Handling by Region: Approval is highest in the Atlantic provinces (68%), BC (65%) and Ontario (65%)

Now thinking about the federal government, do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Current data: June 2020

7

23%

25%

17%

15%

27%

19%

30%

38%

39%

34%

38%

39%

37%

38%

12%

12%

12%

23%

11%

13%

9%

11%

11%

15%

9%

9%

15%

10%

12%

11%

21%

14%

12%

8%

12%

4%

2%

1%

1%

4%

7%

1%

Overall

BC [n=163]

Alberta [n=136]

Prairies [n=80]

Ontario [n=459]

Quebec [n=280]

Atlantic [n=82]

y

x

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know

% Approve

61%

65%

51%

53%

65%

56%

68%

Page 8: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

COVID-19 Provincial Tracking: 7-in-10 approve of the way their province has handled the COVID-19 outbreak, mostly steady since late March

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the [PROV] Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Current data: June 2020

8

25%

31%

29%

33%

29%

29%

28%

32%

28%

37%

38%

39%

36%

37%

39%

38%

37%

42%

14%

13%

14%

13%

16%

13%

13%

11%

12%

12%

10%

9%

9%

10%

10%

11%

11%

10%

7%

5%

4%

5%

5%

5%

5%

6%

5%

4%

2%

5%

4%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

Mar-20

Mar-20 (2)

Apr-20

Apr-20 (2)

Apr-20 (3)

May-20

May-20 (2)

Jun-20

Jun-20 (2)

y

x

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know

% Approve

70%

69%

67%

68%

66%

69%

67%

69%

63%

Page 9: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

COVID-19 Provincial Handling by Region: Approval of provincial government handling is highest in BC (83%) and Atlantic Canada (83%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the [PROV] Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Current data: June 2020

9

28%

47%

16%

22%

23%

29%

40%

42%

36%

44%

39%

46%

38%

42%

12%

8%

16%

18%

11%

13%

7%

10%

5%

12%

10%

12%

9%

5%

5%

3%

11%

7%

4%

5%

5%

3%

1%

1%

4%

3%

6%

1%

Overall

BC [n=163]

Alberta [n=136]

Prairies [n=80]

Ontario [n=459]

Quebec [n=280]

Atlantic [n=82]

y

x

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know

% Approve

70%

83%

60%

61%

69%

67%

83%

Page 10: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

OntarioQuebec

COVID-19 Provincial Handling Tracking: BC is now seen as the strongest province on handling the COVID-19 outbreak

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the [PROV] Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Current data: June 2020

10

March 16-18 March 24-26 March 31-April 2

April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 May 29-June 1

June 19-23

National Average

BC

Alberta

81%

67%64%

60%62%

83%

51%

69%63%

70%

% Approve

Page 11: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Read, Seen, HeardThe UN Security Council bid is the most recalled news story and it received the first partisan political reaction to an issue since the pandemic began.

11

Page 12: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Federal Read, Seen, Heard: A majority (57%) of respondents say they have RSH something about the Prime Minister

Current data: June 2020

Have you read, seen or heard anything about Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days?[Asked of those who have RSH; n=1,200]

43%

57%

Yes No

Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government?[Asked of those who have RSH; n=682]

18%

12%

37%

13%

21%

A lot more favourable

Somewhat more favourable

Made no difference

Somewhat less favourable

A lot less favourable

Page 13: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Read, Seen, Heard Tracking: RSH has continued to fall to 57% from a high of 77% in April

Have you read, seen or heard anything about Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

No Yes

Note: Don't know not shown.Current data: June 2020

45%

55%

43%

57%

Page 14: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Federal Read, Seen, Heard, Impact Tracking: For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, impact has returned to more normal levels

Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less favourable towards Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government?[asked of those who have RSH; n=682]

Mar

-12

Ap

r-1

2

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

A lot more favourable Somewhat more favourable Made no difference Somewhat less favourable A lot less favourable

Note: Don't know not shown.Current data: June 2020Note: In May '18, this question is asked of all respondents except those in Ontario.

6%

11%

33%

14%

35%

12%

21%

37%

13%

18%

Page 15: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

26% of those who have RSH something say they heard about Trudeau losing the bid for the UN Security Council seat, with 45% now feeling less favourable

And what have you read, seen or heard about Canada’s Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days? Please be specific.[Asked of those who have RSH; n=682]

26%

23%

19%

11%

9%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

9%

1%

3%

Trudeau lost bid for UN Security Council seat

COVID-19 updates - general

Trudeau extends CERB for an additional 2 months

Two Canadians jailed in China

Government spending/can't pay it back - general

Trudeau's daily briefings on COVID-19

Trudeau denounces sytemic racism/takes a knee/BLM general

The economy and deficit - general

Trump dislikes Trudeau/their relationship

Singh kicked out of parliament/Trudeau defends Singh

Trudeau suspends parliament/refuses to sit

Trudeau's response to China on the two men jailed

Border closure continues/should continue

Liberal MP faces assault and other charges

Promises of/lack of support for seniors/those with disabilities

Other

Don't know

Refused

‘Other’ includes:• Trudeau negative – general• Firearm laws

More fav. No Difference Less fav. NET

6% 49% 45% -39%

46% 41% 13% +33%

50% 31% 19% +31%

20% 41% 39% -19%

6% 16% 78% -72%

36% 47% 17% +19%

Impact by RSH

Note: Impact shown only for responses with a weighted n>30

Page 16: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Leadership Leadership numbers are holding steady for many leaders, with only Yves-Francois Blanchet seeing a directional increase in his popularity.

16

Page 17: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Federal Party Leader NET Favourables Tracking: Blanchet is now the most popular leader at +17%, followed by Trudeau at +12%

Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that.[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Sep

-15

(2

)

Oct

-15

Oct

-15

(2

)

Oct

-15

(3

)

May

-17

Oct

-17

Mar

-18

Sep

-18

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Sep

-19

Sep

-19

(2

)

Oct

-19

Oct

-19

(2

)

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Trudeau, Liberal Scheer/Harper, Conservative Singh/Mulcair, NDP Blanchet/Beaulieu/Ouellet/Duceppe, Bloc

Note: Green Leader, People's Party Leader not shown.Current data: June 2020Note: Results for Yves-Francois Blanchet for Quebec respondents only

-20%

+11%+12%

-23%

+12%

-35%

+9%

+17%

17

Stephen Harper Andrew Scheer

Thomas Mulcair Jagmeet Singh

Gilles Duceppe Yves-Francois BlanchetMario Beaulieu

Martine Ouellet

Page 18: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Party Leader NET Favourables Tracking: Favourability of Conservative leaders candidates is low, with O’Toole and McKay tied

Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that.[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

18

-35

-12

-8

-33

-12

-8

-35

-11 -10

Andrew Sheer Peter McKay Erin O'Toole

May '20 June '20 June '20 (2)

NET

fav

ou

rab

ility

Current data: June 2020

Page 19: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Vote is steady month-to-month

19

Vote intention reporting:

When we look at the results among only decided voters, we call that decided vote. These results most tell us what the election results would be like if the survey results matched the election exactly.

When we ask people to think about politics in Canada and identify which party ID they usually seen themselves as, we call those results Federal Party ID.

Page 20: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Federal Decided Vote Tracking: The Liberals lead with 41% of the decided vote, while only 27% say they would vote Conservative

If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][only decided voters; n=1,048]

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

No

v-1

0

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

May

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

(2

)

Oct

-19

(2

)

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other

Current data: June 2020

37%

29%

16%

9%9%

1%

27%

41%

15%

6%8%

3%

20

Page 21: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Decided Vote by Party ID: CPC, LPC and Bloc have the most loyal partisans

Federal Party Identification

Fed

eral

Dec

ide

dV

ote

Note: Current data: June 2020

21

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other Unaligned

(N=245) (N=367) (N=142) (N=53) (N=67) (N=39) (N=135)

Conservative 90% 3% 3% 0% 5% 28% 26%

Liberal 7% 88% 16% 7% 8% 14% 37%

NDP 0% 4% 77% 0% 11% 4% 17%

Bloc 1% 0% 0% 90% 0% 4% 6%

Green 0% 3% 4% 1% 76% 8% 8%

Other 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 44% 6%

Page 22: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

BC Decided Vote Tracking: The NDP (42%) continues to lead the Liberals (32%) by a wide margin

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][only decided voters; n=268]

Current data: June 2020NOTE: ‘Green Party’ not given as an option in April 2014

22

Mar

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

BC Liberal NDP BC Conservative Green Other

31%

43%

12%11%

2%

32%

42%

13%12%

0%

Page 23: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Liberal United Conservative Party NDP Green

Alberta Party Progressive Conservative Wildrose Alliance Other

Alberta Decided Vote Tracking: While the UCP continues to lead, over the last 12 months UCP is down from a high of 57% to 44% today

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][only decided voters; n=267]

Current data: June 2020

23

In July 2017, the Wildrose Alliance and Progressive

Conservative parties merged to form the United Conservative Party

22%25%

6%

16%

30%

2%

6%

44%

38%

3%5%

3%

Page 24: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Ontario Decided Vote Tracking: The Liberals (39%) continue to hold their lead over the Progressive Conservatives (31%)

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][only decided voters; n=532]

Current data: June 2020

24

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Progressive Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other

31%32%

29%

7%

1%

31%

39%

21%

9%

1%

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Quebec Decided Vote Tracking: The CAQ (39%) maintain their 10-point lead over the Quebec Liberals

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED][only decided voters; n=263]

Current data: June 2020

25

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9 (

2)

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jun

-20

(2

)

Quebec Liberal The ADQ/CAQ The Parti Quebecois Quebec Solidaire Green Other

44%

10%

29%

7%

10%

29%

39%

21%

5%6%

1%

Page 26: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

For example, in Alberta, 38%

identify with the UCP, 20% have no party ID, and 42%

identify with another party.

Provincial Party ID by Province: Nearly 4-in-10 Albertans identify as partisans of the incumbent party, the UCP, highest amongst all provinces

Percentage of each party ID type by province. Voters are broken down by whether they identify with the incumbent party, no party, or an opposition party [asked of all respondents]

Current data: June 2020

Overall breakdown

24%

38%

22%

19%

30%

20%

22%

25%

47%

42%

57%

57%

British Columbia

Alberta

Ontario

Quebec

y

x

Incumbent Supporter Unaligned Opposition Supporter

26

Page 27: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Incumbent Vote by Party ID Type: Support for the CAQ in Quebec, and the NDP in BC, are most bolstered by opposition partisans

PROV Government Party ID Unaligned Opposition Party ID

British Columbia 89% 36% 12%

Alberta 89% 16% 6%

Ontario 90% 17% 7%

Quebec 85% 36% 16%

Voters are broken out in the table by whether they identify with the incumbent party, no party, or an opposition party. For each province we show the % of voters for the incumbent party within each group.

Party ID Type

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f In

cum

ben

t V

OTE

RS

Current data: June 2020

For example, 16% of Quebecers who identify

with an opposition party still intend to vote CAQ.

Page 28: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

Provincial Coalitions by Region: The UCP in Alberta boasts the highest incumbent party support by its own partisans of the big four provinces

Percentage of each party ID type among voters for the incumbent party. This measure shows the extent to which each incumbent's coalition is based on each type of voter.[results among incumbent party voters in each province]

Current data: June 2020

Breakdown of the governing party’s coalition

For example, in Alberta, 85% of

United Conservative Party support comes from UCP partisans,

higher than any other provincial

government.

56%

85%

71%

47%

29%

8%

13%

26%

15%

7%

15%

27%

British Columbia

Alberta

Ontario

Quebec

y

x

Incumbent Supporter Unaligned Opposition Supporter

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STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Methodology

29

Page 30: CTM July 2020 - innovativeresearch.ca€¦ · Rally-’Round-the Flag: Overall satisfaction for the federal govt and provincial govts of the big 4 provinces has jumped during the

These are the results of an online survey conducted between June 19th and

23rd, 2020.

Method: This online survey was conducted using INNOVATIVE's Canada 20/20 national

research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a leading provider of online

sample. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the

panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's composition reflects that of the

actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended

to approximate a probability sample.

Sample Size: n=2,115 Canadian citizens, 18 years or older. Regional oversamples in Alberta

and BC were used in order to adequately capture perspective on those provinces. The

results are nationally weighted to n=1,200 based on Census data from Statistics Canada.

Field Dates: June 19th and 23rd, 2020.

Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure that the

overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census

data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.

Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table.

Margin of Error: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not

a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements

about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online

panels.

Survey Methodology

Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in

data. Sums are added before rounding numbers.

30

Unweighted (n)

Unweighted (%)

Weighted (n)

Weighted (%)

Males 18-34 190 9% 165 13.8%

Males 35-54 254 12% 201 16.7%

Males 55+ 666 31.5% 217 18.1%

Females 18-34 200 9.5% 163 13.6%

Females 35-54 287 13.6% 208 17.4%

Females 55+ 518 24.5% 245 20.4%

BC 384 18.2% 163 13.6%

AB 312 14.8% 136 11.3%

Prairies 114 5.4% 80 6.7%

ON 838 39.7% 459 38.3%

QC 336 15.9% 280 23.3%

Atlantic 126 6% 82 6.8%

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For more information, please contact:

Greg LylePresident(t) 416-642-6429(e) [email protected]

© 2020 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc.