HOW SOCIAL BECAME TV’S BEST FRIEND

CURIOUS ABOUT SOCIAL TV?

Despite all the hype, social media has not brought TV advertising to its knees. Rather than the downfall of TV, we have witnessed the emergence of social TV: consumers harnessing social media to comment about TV shows in every regard. Often these consumer comments are made in real or near-real time which, as we will show, could make them especially powerful as the industry considers adopting some form of social TV rating metric.

Social TV is growing voraciously. We have seen a +1700% increase in post volumes in just two years. Sources estimate cable’s rate of growth at more than double that of broadcast, with fans of shows such as MTV’s Video Music Awards and Sony’s Breaking Bad leading the way.

There is some evidence, with more data to be released, that social TV may influence ratings. One Nielsen study shows that a +9% to +14% increase in buzz correlates to a +1% increase in ratings. Such findings will become all the more important when Twitter and Nielsen join forces to launch the Nielsen Twitter TV Ratings (NTTR), slated to be released in Q4 2013. This will take the social TV data into a new realm where, for the first time, we will have true social TV ratings. These ratings will be based on the full, active universe of Twitter users, where each show’s ratings are weighted by its demographics as tracked by Nielsen.

If Nielsen and Twitter can validate the advertising effectiveness of social TV ratings, and they have some impressive marketing statisticians on their respective benches, it could detonate a revolution in how we value and buy airtime.

Yet there are other ways in which social TV can be valuable to marketers. The advent of technologies related to ACR (Automatic Content Recognition) means everything from cross-platform interactive sponsorships to purchasing products seen in TV shows become an increasing reality.

Social TV is a burgeoning phenomenon. We find it exciting because its impressive momentum is largely consumer driven. Social TV was not the invention of the media industry. It represents the participation power of people in media today that creates the opportunity for true competitive advantage for brands.

Social TV is a rapidly escalating consumer trend. The catalyst was mobile media, specifically with the smartphone and tablet. The industry at large only became aware of the smartphone’s impact on TV viewing with the 2010 Super Bowl. Soon afterwards, Google shared its internal mobile data with the industry, demonstrating how mobile searches in real time leapt with each ad break in the game. Distinctive advertisers such as GoDaddy, Dockers, and Google’s own ad, How to Impress a French Girl, achieved breakout search levels. These showed that, contrary to some vocal detractors, Super Bowl ads still work powerfully.

Exactly one year later, the 2011 Super Bowl provided the media industry with indisputable, public evidence of social TV. Within 30 minutes of the game starting, advertisers such as Pepsi, Doritos and Universal Pictures’ film, Fast Five, were in Twitter’s global top ten trend ranking. If one thinks about this, arguably this is a profound insight on consumer behavior: US advertisers in a US TV show were climbing to the top of Twitter’s global trend rankings. Yet only six years earlier, Joe Jaffe in his book, Life After the 30-Second Spot, had declared Super Bowl advertising “an act of ‘desperation marketing’”. While the Super Bowl is not suitable for every advertiser, that is without doubt an over-claim.

WHERE DID SOCIAL TV BEGIN?

In the two years since the 2011 Super Bowl, social TV has grown at a blistering pace. In Q1 2011, the total number of posts was 17 million. By the end of that year, it had skyrocketed to 108 million, and by Q4 2012, it was 290 million. That’s an intense compound annual growth rate of over +300% a year; the quarterly growth rate is equally impressive at +42% average per Quarter.

Anything achieving such a breathtaking growth rate is typically quite volatile in its future development. As such, we believe social TV’s future volume and structure could be valued very differently by marketers two years from now.

Today, Twitter accounts for 90%+ of live or near-live social TV, where live or near-live is defined as +/- 3 hours of the show’s airing. According to Twitter’s Fred Graver, 46% of all social TV tweets are about live shows, 28% relate to repeat episodes, and the remainder, 26%, are about new episodes. Notably, 44% of live social TV tweeting is about sports. All of series TV comprises about 34%, with reality TV being the most tweeted.

Another way to drill into the social TV audience is to probe dedicated social TV sites such as Viggle, ConnecTV, and GetGlue. The purpose of these dedicated sites is to offer the viewer a more customized environment which is user friendly and has a great deal of related TV program information. They often also take advantage of ACR (Automatic Content Recognition), where the site’s app, on the secondary companion device, can automatically and spontaneously recognize which program the viewer is watching on TV.

To date, the largest of these dedicated social TV websites has been GetGlue. Media researcher, comScore, reveals some interesting insights on its user base.

EARLY, RAPACIOUS GROWTH

Q1 2011

350

1747 50

108

185

226 225

290300

250

200

150

100

50

0Q4 2012Q3 2012Q2 2012Q1 2012Q4 2011Q3 2011Q2 2011

SOCIAL TV COMMENTS (MILLIONS)

Get Glue’s monthly visitor profile from comScore reveals a polarization between PC and mobile use. The max volume of visitors is via mobile with 3.8 million visitors a month (highlighted by being boxed in red) - more than double that of PCs at 1.6 million. But PCs score much higher for the total duration of visits per month, aggregating at 347 minutes per visitor (also highlighted in red) - more than seven times the equivalent duration via mobile devices at 79 minutes.

An interesting pattern is also seen in Get Glue’s monthly visitor profile from comScore. Overall, women are more likely to be social TV early adopters. When we look at Get Glue’s PC visitors, we see the majority are women (56%), with the age profile maxing among 35-64s with an index of 154. By comparison, mobile visitors exhibit a more evident female bias, accounting for 60% of mobile use, and are noticeably younger with 18-34s indexing at 161.

Robust data on other dedicated social media sites is generally not available since these sites are still fledglings. What good data we do have indicates they too tend to have an overall female bias, although this can vary substantially by program type. For example, sports are much more likely to attract men.

MALE FEMALE FEMALE INDEX MALE FEMALE FEMALE

INDEX

12-17 3.5% 3.0% 86 12-17 0.0% 0.0% -

18-34 15.0% 18.5% 124 18-34 19.8% 31.9% 161

35-64 20.0% 30.8% 154 35-64 19.1% 27.4% 143

65+ 5.4% 3.6% 67 65+ 1.6% 0.2% 10

ALL 43.9% 56.0% 127 ALL 40.5 59.5% 147

BASE 1,641,000 BASE 3,824,000

VISITORS MM

TOTAL MINS MM

MINS/VISITOR

TOTAL 5.2 856 164

PC 1.6 556 347

MOBILE 3.8 300 79

MONTHLY VISITORS PROFILE PC VS. MOBILE

Does social TV buzz influence advertising? The short answer is yes. The longer answer, however, is there are many external factors that add to the influence social TV has on advertising. Contrary to common marketing wisdom, not every Super Bowl advertiser sees a bump in WOM after the big game. Some advertisers may be able to garner substantial online mentions with their Super Bowl ads but cannot then bolster offline conversation or WOM resonance for their brand. Brands with which we often see social buzz and WOM success not only entertain viewers, but engage them with interactive/viral content that can be shared and talked about while supplementing the original advertising message.

UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL TV IN CONTEXT

The introduction of Ms. Brown, the first female M&M’s character, made a big splash in the 2012 Super Bowl. As a well-branded spot, making use of the highly popularized song “Sexy and I Know It” by LMFOA, M&M’s was able to entertain viewers and achieve high virality and positive impacts on WOM.

TOP SUPER BOWL ADVERTISERS

BOTTOM SUPER BOWL ADVERTISERS

STAR WARS 287% CADILLAC 1%

M&M 244% TELEFLORA 1%

HYUNDAI 139% DANNON OIKOS 0%

DORITOS 128% JOHN CARTER 0%

BUD LIGHT 74% KIA -10%

BUDWEISER 53% H&M -18%

PEPSI 28% PEPSI MAX -22%

SAMSUNG 28% GENERAL ELECTRIC -24%

CEHVROLET 20% METLIFE -54%

COCA-COLA 19% CARS.COM -62%

WOM % SHIFT PRE & POST SUPER BOWL 2012

An additional analysis of Super Bowl data, focusing on movie ads, showed a relationship between WOM lift and Super Bowl advertising that is greatly impacted by many factors. Program ratings were the prime media determinant, while ad position (both in-program and pod position) had a smaller, but still substantial, impact on WOM. Though data in this area is still limited, ad length is also important in differentiating competitors from the cluttered ad landscape and boosting WOM.

Looking beyond the Super Bowl, it is important to understand if a WOM/Social TV buzz relationship exists with regular programming. Analysis of top advertisers/sponsors for shows which were both highly rated and buzz-worthy, per Networked Insights, illuminates some aspects of Social TV influence that advertisers should keep in mind.

Though social TV buzz is generally relegated to Twitter and online platforms, and is typically produced in real or near-real time, Keller Fay captures impact on Word of Mouth through both online and offline means. The growth of post-episode WOM Share for top advertisers and sponsors in the first season of The X Factor, for example, indicates that Social TV may be spurring more offline conversations and extending the reach of social influence.

As previously stated with the Super Bowl analysis, inclusion in and involvement with buzz-worthy shows does not necessarily equate to WOM success. Verizon and Sony, both sponsors of The X-Factor, saw substantial lifts in post-episode WOM but were outdone by T-Mobile who implemented a new campaign strategy and buzz-worthy creative. This opportunistic campaign by T-Mobile highlights the importance of external factors(i.e., proper messaging alignment, contextual relevance, key targeting, etc.) in driving success through social TV. Additional analysis of advertiser WOM lift within Glee also indicates the importance of contextual relevance for advertisers. Brands like Wal-Mart and Aveeno, who tailored messaging to the core female audience, not only saw high post-episode lifts, but also durable increases in WOM over time. The bottom line: influence of social TV depends on matching the right message to the right target at the right time, and the durability of these lifts are key to success.

119

103 103

94 92

54

133

114120

100 105

90

150

100

50

X-FACTOR ADVERTISER WOM LIFT COMPARISON (A18-49)

Episode Airdate Share of WOM Index

Post-Episode Share of WOM Index

While tent pole events like the Super Bowl and Primetime Broadcast programming garner high ratings and significant levels of Social TV buzz, cable’s thematic programming and niche audiences may actually lend themselves better to Social TV. Over the last several quarters, cable’s growth in social media buzz has exploded, growing at over twice the rate of broadcast. Additionally, the top buzzed about shows over the past several quarters have been cable programs, as reported by Networked Insights. Shows like True Blood, Pretty Little Liars, and Jersey Shore consistently rank in the top ten, boasting very dramatic storylines and typically younger-skewing audiences that so often lead to high social buzz volumes.

A FUTURE IN CABLE

100

554

64

5 1,35

9

1,4

80 2,79

1

124 686 1,0

33 1,63

0

2,17

9

Q1 2011 Q3 2012Q2 2012Q1 2012Q4 2011Q3 2011Q2 2011

3,0

06

8,84

2

4,1

03

SOCIAL MEDIA BUZZ

GROWTH

Broadcast

Cable

Though a program’s overall volume of social mentions may be strong, diving deeper into social buzz proves volume only tells part of the story. Sentiment, for example, can greatly impact the influence and resonance of social buzz. With social already driving up to 17% of new program viewing, the content and context of what people say is becoming increasingly valuable. 76% of these new watchers tune in because of good things people had to say, while 8% are drawn in by the controversy surrounding a show.

In this X-Factor example, though not directly correlated to overall volume of mentions, positive net sentiment aligns with major events throughout the season. Water-cooler moments or controversies, like the reinstating of an eliminated fan-favorite, spur high levels of buzz that are very sentiment-driven.

Additionally, social TV darling Pretty Little Liars, a program that is consistently top ranked for social buzz by Networked Insights, harnessed the power of social buzz to keep viewers engaged and entertained during their off season with a web series. Though at a much lower volume than during regular season programming, the highly positive buzz garnered by the web series enabled the show to rebound quickly in the new season and even overcome stiff programming competition buzz levels.

It is important to note, however, that while positive sentiment is critical to brands, it is less important to the TV show itself as viewers often “love-to-hate” a character or express frustration over specific plots that may throw a wrench on stories the viewer is already greatly invested in.

SENTIMENT AND VOLUME ARE EQUALLY IMPORTANT IN SOCIAL TV

Given that Twitter has a near-monopoly on social TV chatter, it only seems right that it has identified three implication areas for this movement: a new version of the traditional TV guide, an additional TV rating, and a potential generator of revenue.

IMPLICATIONS FOR MEDIA: RUNDOWNS, RATINGS AND REVENUES

Apps like GetGlue and TV Guide’s Watchlist are a 21st century spin on an idea nearly as old as television itself: the TV guide. However, instead of the classic grids, the new TV listings are a living, breathing curation of what your friends are watching. GetGlue allows programs to not only promote themselves, but also allows for posting of bonus content, such as a behind-the-scenes video profiling of Breaking Bad’s Walter White. This has been shown to work in converting users to viewers of promoted programs. A February 2012 TVGuide.com survey reported that 17% of adults have started to watch a TV program because of a “social impression” – exposure to this show in their own personalized feed – and that 31% have continued to watch for the same reason.

However, championing of programs via such a platform is not exclusively the domain of producers and networks. TVGuide.com research also reveals that 76% of its Watchlist users talk about shows simply to keep them on the air. Prior to the 2011-2012 season, eight of the top ten new shows selected for the Watchlist were eventually picked up for full seasons. This, however, is not a perfect predictor of programs’ success. For example, 2012-2013’s drama list featured 666 Park Avenue at #3, and Last Resort at #8; neither lasted long beyond their fall debuts:

WHAT’S ON? SOCIAL TV APPS UNDERSCORE SHIFT TOWARDS ACTIVE TELEVISION VIEWING

TV GUIDE WATCHLIST 2012-2013 (DRAMAS)

All of this conversation, and the ways to generate it, naturally raises the question: what impact does social TV actually have on ratings? Last year, Nielsen developed an analytical model that suggests that “buzz” about TV may lead to marginal increases in ratings. The output of this model is consistent across age and gender, suggesting that 1% ratings increases can be achieved via:

+ 9% increase in buzz volume (defined by social media posts) four weeks prior to a show’s premiere

+ 14% increases in buzz volume in the two weeks preceding a midseason episode or a finale

The models also revealed interesting patterns about the growth of social TV buzz over the course of a TV season, and like ratings themselves, there are definitive peaks and valleys:

+ Non-competition reality shows (e.g., Keeping Up with the Kardashians) post slightly higher levels of buzz around their finales than their competition counterparts (e.g., The X-Factor), despite having much lower post volume in their season premieres

+ While all reality shows tend to lull in between premiere and finale, comedies and dramas work hard to maintain momentum leading up to the finale

SOCIAL TV AND THE IMPACT ON RATINGS: NOT A ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL RELATIONSHIP

While this is encouraging from an ROI standpoint, some venturers into the realm of Social TV were reminded that the longstanding rules of TV still apply. There is perhaps no greater recent example of this than the 2012 MTV Video Music Awards. According to GetGlue, the program topped social buzz volume for the week it aired; Networked Insights corroborated that finding, showing that it also bested social buzz for the entire third quarter of 2012. Anticipation was high, but when the program aired, it suffered a 50% ratings decline versus the previous year’s outing among women and adults 18-34.

Why? The press and UM corporate sibling MAGNA Global immediately began speculating, ultimately concluding that most of the trouble had to do with scheduling. MTV moved the awards show from Sunday to Thursday, a day on which the show had been airing since 2007. Also, to avoid any competition with President Barack Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention held on the same night, the show was bumped up to 8pm instead of the long-held 9pm slot.

The final implication rests on revenue – yes, revenue for TV networks and advertisers, but more specifically, revenue that can be generated by selling products using social TV itself. Several players have emerged as early adopters in this space. For example, FOX NOW is the News Corp. network’s second-screen app. Not only does it provide automatic content recognition (ACR) capabilities, information about its programs, and other goodies, but it also boasts a feature where users can buy the items featured in programs. While it claims viewers can shop in “real time”, these items are actually updated to feature select items for every new episode. American Express cardholders are given a $35 cash back credit for their purchase.

Another app, an “import” from the UK that arrived State-side last year, is Zeebox. Brought to the U.S. via Comcast, Zeebox also features items from programs across NBCUniversal’s broadcast and cable properties. American Express is a partner in this venture as well.

Zeebox could be considered on the forefront of attempting to evolve the concept of social TV commerce forward to a true real-time shopping experience. With multiple partners, including Gracenote, a company on the forefront of ACR and a fully owned subsidiary of UM client Sony Corporation of America, Zeebox is working on a way to have items that you see on your TV screen immediately available for purchase on your tablet screen.

Additionally, the role of credit card companies in social commerce – and not just in social TV – should not be understated. In early 2013, American Express expanded on a previously existing deal with Twitter, in which any of their cardholders with a handle can tweet special hashtags to purchase select items at a discount. All one would have to do is sync their card with their Twitter account. All of this leads to the “Holy Grail” of social commerce (or at least how it appears in 2013): as TV continues to expand, and networks look to expand the franchise of successful shows, we want to be both chatting about The Big Bang Theory and buying Sheldon’s latest Red Lantern T-shirt at the same time!

SHOW ME THE MONEY, WHILE THEY WATCH THIS SHOW

Social TV is becoming a powerful force in the industry, underscoring the revolutionary power of consumers in the digital age:

01 02Apply Social TV metrics to understanding and optimizing TV schedules further. Social TV growth has been explosive, fueled primarily in the U.S. by Twitter. The micro-blogging site boasts over 90% of live social media TV chatter. A third of active users tweet about TV.

For brands to drive consumer word of mouth success through social TV, they will have to optimize against targeting, message content and context, and timing. Or put in another way, we need to:

+ Match the brand to the program, and

+ Align the message to the audience

For example, an older, established brand would almost always need to exude an evident sense of humor, or even young-at-heart irreverence, if it were being featured on The Colbert Report.

IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS: 5 KEY OPPORTUNITIES

03 04 05Brands should balance volume with net sentiment to ensure the best possible brand showcase. Net positive sentiment correlates often to comment volumes but not always. For programmers and viewers, this is not necessarily a bad outcome. For instance, X Factor viewers may ‘love to hate’ Simon Cowell. Yet no brand wants to be associated with negative sentiment so this is still a trap for most marketers.

Explore the new opportunities that Social TV is offering from curation to commerce. Social TV chatter is its own entity, inspiring new versions of the TV guide, new avenues of commerce, and, crucially, its own Nielsen Twitter TV rating by Q4 2013.

Brands should seize the chance to partner with Social TV sites (ACR dedicated sites) such as Viggle and ConnecTV which offer a timeliness to consumer involvement. As such, they can enhance the viewer’s cross-platform experience where UM has ample evidence to show how this can impact lower-funnel purchasing decision metrics.

CURIOUS CONCLUSION: WE LIVE IN EXCITING SOCIAL TIMES!

We may think of media overload as a very recent concept, but Alvin Tofler coined the phrase over four decades ago in 1970. Today, far from fearing media overload, many consumers have actively upended this paradigm by embracing their own edited cornucopia of media overload in the form of social TV, second screen viewing, and other simultaneous media consumption.

All social TV-related strategies should regard this burgeoning digital form as highly fluid – it may radically change to an almost unrecognizable extent over the next two years. We’ll continue to be actively involved in social TV, to be part of the changes and help them evolve. As we noted in our introduction, we find social TV exciting, especially in this age of media participation.

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