STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404 STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Current and Possible Future Trends in Nuclear R&D

Phillip Finck Chief Scientist, Idaho National Laboratory

October 2014

STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Outline

• Current Needs – Can they be extrapolated?

• World Trends – Towards new approaches?

• Possible Future Trends – My best guess…

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

DOE-NE Strategy is Articulated Through Five RD&D Objectives

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Objective 1: Improve the reliability and performance, sustain the safety and security, and extend the life of current reactors by developing advanced technological solutions.

Objective 2: Meet the Administration's energy security and climate change goals by developing technologies to support the deployment of affordable advanced reactors.

Objective 3: Optimize energy generation, waste generation, safety, and non-proliferation attributes by developing sustainable nuclear fuel cycles.

Objective 4: Enable future nuclear energy options by developing and maintaining an integrated national RD&D framework.

Objective 5: Advance U. S. international civil nuclear energy priorities and objectives through collaboration.

Structural Materials

System Design Studies Power Conversion Systems

Dry Heat Rejection Systems Hybrid Systems

Materials Recovery Waste Forms

UNF Disposition Safeguards & Security

Safety and Risk Analysis Advanced Manufacturing

Systems Analysis Space & Defense Power

Systems Instrumentation & Control Systems

Fuels and Cladding

Modeling and Simulation

STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Current Nuclear Energy R&D Programs Address 5 R&D Objectives

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

The Big Picture / Energy Growth

5 From: IEA WEO 2013

Net Growth 33%

STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Trends that Influence Energy Mix

Policies Resources

Markets

Disruptive Events Change Energy Mix

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Different issues dominate the choice of energy mix, regionally, nationally, and globally

• U.S. and world energy picture are fundamentally different. The nuclear market is global

• Nuclear energy growth in Asia • Uncertain future for nuclear growth in the U.S. absent new policies (e.g., CO2)

or capital cost reduction • History shows the nuclear power industry is highly vulnerable to external factors

that, while generally predictable, are often underestimated

STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Nuclear Energy Growth in Short to Medium-Term

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

• Future nuclear energy uses might be expanded outside electricity market • Future nuclear energy will need to interact with a flexible supply environment • Resource issues and waste management are not considered urgent priority today

Next Advanced Reactor LWR’s (AP1000,

SMRs) High Temperature

Reactors Fast Neutrons

No CO2 limit X

Incremental steps X X

CO2 limit X X X

Resource and Waste Issues X

Possible Attributes for Large Scale Deployment of Nuclear Energy

• Less reliance on active safety systems

• Equals/exceeds current proliferation resistance

• Non-electric applications

• Lower capital costs (how much/where), lower investment risk (if possible)

• Competitive electricity costs (how much/where)

• Market driven technologies

• Developed in collaboration with evolving NRC

• Subject to NRC licensing and regulation

• Flexibility

• Resource and waste management

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

The Role of Innovation

Status • Lengthy timescale from idea to

deployment (AP-1000; Nuscale…) • Powerful but rigid licensing process • Inward looking research

community

Needs • Capture external innovations • Rethink licensing approach for

novel concepts • Accelerate RD&D process • Market driven technology

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

• Used fuel management • LWR designs (Licensed)

– Continue support LWR life extension

– Can/Should LWRs handle variable demand

• How much? • Will this impact life extension?

– Prepare for/Prevent the next nuclear accident

– Support incremental improvements

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Possible Trends in Future Nuclear Energy R&D

STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Possible Trends in Future Nuclear Energy R&D

• Advanced Reactor Designs – Reduce capital cost – Minimize civil/structural construction

and materials – Increase modularity – Increase passive safety – Rethink current advanced concepts

in view of emerging needs – Support market driven technologies

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Future Nuclear Energy R&D • Flexibility (hybrid systems)

– What percentage of renewables can the grid support without changes to operating nuclear power plants

– What simple storage solutions can be buffers between renewable energy sources and base load supply, including NPP

– What industrial applications could vary operations to accept excess energy on the grid

– Non-electric applications – Cyber security

• Revolutionary (Game changing technologies/advanced technologies)

– What technologies would completely change the mix energy

– Is it possible to prepare for or develop these technologies

– Material science R&D will lead to break through

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

Infrastructure for Nuclear Energy R&D • Knowledge Management

– Experience database, learn from previous accidents and R&D programs

– Provide resource for experimental data, V&V codes

– Determine what experiments are needed to V&V advanced tools

• Basic Science – Materials – Safety – Fabrication – Construction Techniques – Etc.

• Modeling and Simulation tools • Facilities and experimental techniques • People

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STI Number: INL/MIS-14-33404

The National Nuclear Laboratory

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