Current issues on Nuclear Policy in Japan

Ichiro KutaniManager, Global Energy Group 1, Strategy Research UnitThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

15th ASEAN+3 ENERGY SECURITY FORUM (ESF) on 29 Mar. 2018

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Impact on Energy Security

Nuclear power in Japan has contributed to diversify generation mix and improve self-sufficiency rate. Before the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011:

54 reactors, contributing approximately 30% of total electricity generation In 2016: the electricity generation of nuclear power was only 17TWh, approximately 2%

of total power generation

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Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Others(TWh)

Trend of electricity generation in Japan with 2030 target Energy self-sufficiency rate of Japan with 2030 target

Source: IEA, World Energy Balances 2017; author calculated and added the data for 2030; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Strategic Energy Policy 2014

22%

6%

7%

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30%

40%

50%

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2030

24%

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Impact on Energy Security

The loss of nuclear power has been compensated by an increase in fossil fuel imports by value and volume. Impact on trade-deficit Impact on recorded highest level of GHG emissions in 2013

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1971

1974

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2016

Thermal coal Crude oil LNG(billion yen)

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Thermal coal Crude oil LNG(million ton)

The cost and volume of imported fossil fuels

Source: Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics of Japan; IEEJ-EDMC, EDMC Databank

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Periodic Review of “Strategic Energy Plan”

The Strategic Policy Committee started discussion on revising the current (4th) Strategic Energy Plan in August 2017. The new plan is expected to be published by summer 2018. “Energy mix target in 2030” seems to be maintained.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2030

572 548 538 542

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32%

25%

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19%

14%

43%

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24%

8%

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2013 2030 2030

9,666 9,80810,650

Unit: million kL oil equivalent Unit: 100 GWh

17%saving

Renewables22～24%

Nuclear20～22%

LNG27%

Oil 3%

Coal26%

(Electricity demand) (Electricity generation)

Renewables

Nuclear

LNG

Oil

Coal

Primary Energy Demand Power Generation Mix

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Challenges for Nuclear Energy in Japan

Three challenges to achieve 2030 target: Japan needs about 30-35 GW of nuclear power in 2030 Restart of existing reactors – Only 5 reactors are in operation, Some court ordered

temporary injunction against operation

Lifetime extension of existing reactors – 3 reactors got approvals, One in process New construction? – At least positive statements should be included into a new Strategic

Energy Plan

Other challenges (see reference slides): Decommissioning – Fukushima Daiichi: gradually progressing, others: decommissioning

is low priority Nuclear fuel cycle

− MOX plant and Reprocessing Plant: still under construction− HLW siting process: Opinion exchange meetings have been held− Fast reactor: JAEA applied to approve decommissioning plan of Monju to NRA.

“Strategic Roadmap” of fast reactor developments will be published in 2018.

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NRA’s process is slow and time-consuming.

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Restart of existing reactors:

40 operable reactors (as of Mar. 2018)

Hamaoka, Chubu Electric Power Company

1 2

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Tokyo Electric Power Company

Shika, Hokuriku Electric Power Company

Tsuruga, The Japan Atomic Power Company

Mihama, Kansai Electric Power Company

Ohi, Kansai Electric Power Company

Kaminoseki, Chugoku Electric Power Company

Genkai, Kyushu Electric Power Company

Sendai, Kyushu Electric Power Company

Capacity

more than 1000MW1000MW or less500MW or less Planning

Under construction

In operationUnits Total output (GW)

In operation 40 39.132

Under construction 3 4.141

Planning 6 8.797

Total 49 52.07

1 2

2 3

3 4 5

2 3 41

31 2

1 2

1

2 3 41 5 6 7

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2 3 41

3

3 4

Takahama, Kansai Electric Power Company

3 41 2

Shimane, Chugoku Electric Power Company

2 3

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2 3 4

[Permanent Shutdown]Tokai: Japan Atomic Power Company, Hamaoka Unit1&2:Chubu Electric Power Company, Fukushima Daiichi Unit1-6:Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tsuruga Unit1: Japan Atomic Power Company, Mihama Unit 1&2, Ohi Unit1&2: Kansai Electric Power Company, Shimane Unit1: Chugoku Electric Power Company, Genkai Unit1: Kyushu Electric Power Company, Ikata Unit1: Shikoku Electric Power Company

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Higashidori, Tohoku Electric Power Company

Higashidori, Tokyo Electric Power CompanyOhma, Japan Power Development Company

Onagawa, Tohoku Electric Power Company

Fukushima Daini, Tokyo Electric Power Company

Tokai Daini, The Japan Atomic Power Company

Ikata, Shikoku Electric Power Company

Tomari, Hokkaido Electric Power Company

Restarted Under review by NRAPassed review

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Restart of existing reactors:1st & 2nd Group – restarted/final stage for restart/lifetime extension approved

Units Application to NRA Restart Duration

(days) No. of hearings

Sendai 1 7/8/2013 8/14/2015 767802

Sendai 2 7/8/2013 10/21/2015 835

Takahama 3 7/8/2013 2/1/2016 938553

Takahama 4 7/8/2013 2/27/2016 964

Ikata 3 * 7/8/2013 8/15/2016 1,134 498

Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority

Units Application to NRA Permission for Changes in Reactor Installation

Duration(days)

No. of hearings( ): >April 2017

Genkai 3, 4 7/12/2013 1/18/2017 1,286 426(82)

Ohi 3, 4 7/8/2013 5/24/2017 1,416 465(73)

KK 6, 7 9/27/2013 12/27/2017 1,552 644(93)

Units Application for lifetime extension

Lifetime extension approved

Duration(days) No. of hearings

Takahama 1, 2 3/17/2015 6/20/2016 461 233

Mihama 3 3/17/2015 11/16/2016 610 201

1st

2nd

* On Dec. 2017, Hiroshima High Court ordered the temporary injunction against operation of Ikata 3. (Ikata 3 has been in the periodical inspection since Oct. 2017.)

2nd

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Restart of existing reactors:

3rd Group – still under review

Units Capacity (MW)

Application to NRA

No. of hearings( ): >April 2017

Tomari 3 912 7/8/2013 374(0)

Shimane 2 820 12/25/2013 190(2)

Onagawa 2 825 12/27/2013 236(59)

Hamaoka 4 1137 2/14/2014 187(4)

Tokai Daini 1100 5/20/2014 704(599)

Higashidori 1 1100 6/10/2014 -

Tomari 1, 2 579*2 7/8/2013 50(0)

Shika 2 1206 8/12/2014 -

Hamaoka 3 1100 6/16/2015 -

Tsuruga 2 1160 11/5/2015 -

Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority

3rd

Other 15 reactors (total 14.3GW without applications to NRA):Time for decision making??

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Lifetime extension of existing reactors

Lifetime extension is also a time-consuming process. Special inspection, assessment on deterioration, and long-term maintenance and

management policies are needed for extension. The electric power companies can start Special inspection after 35 years of operation

period, and they cannot submit the application for extension without the results of Special inspection.

8Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority, “New Regulatory Requirements for Light-Water Nuclear Power Plants”

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Mapping reactors by age and capacity

Tomari-1Tomari-2

Tomari-3

Onagawa-1

Onagawa-2Onagawa-3

Higashidori-1*Fukushima Daini-1

Fukushima Daini-2

KK-1

Fukushima Daini-4

Fukushima Daini-3KK-3

KK-4 KK-2,5

KK-6KK-7

Hamaoka-3 (applied to restart)

Hamaoka-4

Hamaoka-5

Shika-1*

Shika-2*

Mihama-1

Mihama-2

Mihama-3**Takahama-1**

Takahama-2**

Takahama-3,4

Ohi-1,2Ohi-3

Ohi-4

Shimane-1

Shimane-2

Ikata-1Ikata-2

Ikata-3

Genkai-1Genkai-2

Genkai-3

Genkai-4

Sendai-1Sendai-2

Tokai II

Tsuruga-1

Tsuruga-2*

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Capa

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Operation period (year)

●: reactors with applications to restart◆: reactors without applications to restart◆: reactors decided to be decommissioned

** Takahama-1,2 and Mihama-3 are over 40 years old, have got the extension of operating period up to 60 years by NRA.

* Reactors claimed for on-site active faults

(as of December 2017)

Source: IEEJ

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Conclusion

Nuclear power plants in Japan has contributed to diversify generation mix and improve self-sufficiency rate – energy security. However, the current level of energy self-sufficiency rate is far from 2030 target.

How to achieve 2030 target? – Accelerating regulatory reviewing process by NRA would be on the top priority. NRA and the power companies should establish a fifty-fifty relationship. NRA should

have more reasonable regulations/reviewing process with considering economic efficiency.

It is necessary to create a scheme to evaluate/monitor NRA via third parties or auditors. The Diet should enhance their interests/authority to oversight the regulator.

Also, the government should show a clear and consistent nuclear energy policy towards 2050. The power companies should also continue their efforts to lower generation costs

under the status quo of liberalized electricity markets.

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For your reference:

Decommissioning of existing reactors

NRA approved the power companies’ decommissioning plans: April 9, 2017: Mihama-1&2, Shimane-1, Genkai-1, Tsuruga-1 / June 28, 2017: Ikata-1 However, for power companies, decommissioning is low priority compared with restart of

existing reactors

Also, more fundamental issues: Secure facility for spent fuel interim storage and waste disposal Understanding from Stakeholder (local governments and the regulator etc) Cost down of dismantling and treatment of wastes

11Source: Japan Atomic Power Company

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For your reference:

Reprocessing Plant Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL)

has several facilities in Rokkasho: Reprocessing Plant: plans to complete

the construction by the first half of fiscal year 2021

Uranium Enrichment Plant: in operation (stopped its production since FY2013)

Mox Fuel Fabrication Plant: plans to complete the construction by the first half of fiscal year 2022

Vitrified Waste Storage: in operation

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Plant Application to NRA

No. of hearings( ): >April 2017

Reprocessing Plant 1/7/2014 324 (42)

Enrichment Plant 1/7/2014 163 (7)

Mox Fuel Fabrication Plant 1/7/2014 247 (38)

Vitrified Waste Storage 1/7/2014 85 (19)

Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority

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For your reference:

Final disposal of High-level radioactive waste The government published the

“Nationwide Map of Scientific Features for Geological Disposal” in July 2017. This does not decide a disposal site, but the

first step on the long road toward the decision of the site.

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Area with unfavorable features:Orange, SilverOrange area is the area which may damage long-term stability of geological environment. (e.g. close to volcanosSilver area is the area endowed with natural resources. (e.g. oil, gas and coal field)

Area with good chance to be confirmed as having favorable characteristics:GreenThis area doesn’t have unfavorable features (requirements). Dark green is the area favorable from the viewpoint of waste transportation.

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For your reference:

Final disposal of High-level radioactive waste NUMO is carrying out nationwide face-to-face dialogue with the public in

“areas preferable also from the viewpoint of waste transport safety,” to pursue the understanding of the public.

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The map categorizes all areas in Japan into four categories based on nationwide data

Publish Nationwide Map

NUMO will carry out nationwide PR activitiesNUMO will supports dialogs and learning in each local areaNUMO will enhance R&DNUMO will have discussions on community supports

NUMO will conduct three survey/investigations at individual sites after obtaining local understanding:

Nationwide/Local Face-to-face dialogs

Three survey stages for siting based on the Act

Literature survey Preliminary investigations

Detailed investigations

Selection of a repository

construction site

Construction

Bring in & bury HLW

Closure of the facility

if there will be some volunteers…

If Safety is confirmed…

We are here