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Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
CurrentMarket
Outlook
2016
Randy TinsethVice President,
Marketing
John WojickSenior Vice President,
Global Sales & Marketing
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
July 2016
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Market performance and trends
Current Market Outlook (CMO)
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Global market performance 2010 – 2015
Passenger traffic
growth
Cargo traffic
growth
Airline
profits
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
2016 global market expectations
Passenger traffic
growth
Cargo traffic
growth
Airline
profits
SOURCES: Boeing estimates for growth, IATA forecast for airline profits
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Global aviation market trends
Growth driven by emerging economies, LCCs
Continued strong replacement demand
New airplanes, capabilities opening new markets
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Emerging markets / China leading future growth
GDP contributions
2015-2035
GDP growth
2015-2035
Emerging Markets
and China
Advanced
Economies
4.3%
1.8%
$35 trillion
$20 trillion
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
LCCs taking >1/3 of new single-aisle deliveries
41%
25%
30%
4%
37%
26%
33%
4%
LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks
44%
25%
27%
4%
2025 2035
SOURCE: Boeing CMOs
Single-aisle airplane fleet
2015
25%
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Replacement demand increasing
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Excludes >700 airplanes
older than 25 years
Excludes >300 airplanes
older than 25 years
Single-aisle Twin-aisle
Airp
lan
es tu
rnin
g 2
5 y
ea
rs o
ld
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
787 Dreamliner opening new markets
As of June 24, 2016
Bergen
Bangkok
Brisbane
Boston
Guangzhou
Copenhagen
Chengdu
Dusseldorf
Doha
Denver
Edinburgh
Fort Lauderdale
Sao Paulo
Hanoi
Tokyo
Jakarta
Houston
New York
OsakaLos Angeles
Lagos
OrlandoMonterrey
Manchester
Nairobi
Oslo
Oakland Beijing
Shanghai
Puerto Vallarta
San Francisco
Ho Chi Minh
Wuhan
Helsinki
Montego Bay
Mauritius
Barbados
San Juan
Warsaw
Xi'an
Toronto
Vancouver
Aruba
MelbourneSydney
Dublin
Casablanca
Addis Ababa
Delhi
RomeSeoul
Calgary
Maputo
Tashkent
Announced
In operation
>100 new nonstop markets now connected with the 787
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Market performance and trends
Current Market Outlook (CMO)
Products and customers
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
What’s in the CMO?
20-year
forecast
• Traffic
• Product
All jets >30
seats
• No turbo props
• No biz jets
• No military
All flights
• Scheduled
• Nonscheduled
Global
coverage
• 63 traffic
flows
Freighters
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Why the CMO?
Product
strategy
Long-range
business plan
Suppliers and
airline customers
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Market forecast drivers and considerations
Economicgrowth
Marketliberalization
Emergingmarkets
Fuel price
Environment
Competitivelandscape
Infrastructure
Airlinestrategies &
businessmodels
Airplanecapabilities
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Resilient, growing market expected to continue
RPKs = Revenue Passenger KilometersSOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic
0.0
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2015E
RP
Ks (
trill
ion
s)
5% long-term growth rate
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
20-year forecast: continued long-term growth
GDP Pax RPK RTK
2.9%
4.0%
4.8%
4.2%
World economy(GDP)
Passenger traffic(RPK)
Cargo traffic(RTK)
Number of airlinepassengers
Average annual growth rates
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Airlines need 39,620 new airplanes valued at $5.9 trillion
Airplane deliveries: 39,6202016 - 2035
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Regionaljets6%
Single-aisle71%
Small wide-body
13%
Largewide-body
1%
Mediumwide-body
9%
2,380
28,140
5,100
5303,470
Market value: $5,930B2016 - 2035
2%
51%
23%
4%
21%
Regional jets $110B
Single-aisle $3,000B
Small wide-body $1,350B
Medium wide-body $1,250B
Large wide-body $220B
World Total $5,930B
Airplane Type Value
$5.9T
NOTE: market share may not equal 100% due to rounding
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
World fleet will double
39,620
0
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10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2015 2035
5,620
Retained fleet
16,890
Replacement
43%
22,730
Growth
57%
45,240
22,510
Units
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Emerging markets are driving economic growth
Asia
1.8
3.8
2.3
2.5
2.9
2.9
3.7
4.1
MiddleEast
Europe
NorthAmerica
CIS
LatinAmerica
Africa
SOURCE: IHS Economics
Annual GDP growth, 2015 – 2035
World
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Air travel growth varies by market
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Within Asia*
Within China
Within North America
Within Europe
Middle East - Asia
Europe - Asia
North Atlantic
Transpacific
North America - Latin America
Within Latin America
Within/to CIS
Europe - Latin America
Africa - Europe
Added traffic 2016-2035
4.7%
6.1%
2015 traffic Annual growth %
4.8%
6.2%
3.2%
6.9%
4.5%
5.4%
5.6%
4.1%
4.7%
2.9%
2.6%
WorldTraffic Growth:
4.8%
WorldGDP Growth:
2.9%
RPKs in billions*Does NOT include travel within China
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Market to become even more geographically balanced
38%
21%
19%
8%
8%
3%3%
40%
17%
19%
13%
6%
2%
3%
New airplane deliveries by region2016–2035
Market value by region2016–2035
39,620 $5.9T
Region $B
Asia 2,350
North America 1,030
Europe 1,120
Middle East 770
Latin America 350
C.I.S. 140
Africa 170
World Total $5,930B
Region Airplanes
Asia 15,130
North America 8,330
Europe 7,570
Middle East 3,310
Latin America 2,960
C.I.S. 1,170
Africa 1,150
World Total 39,620
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Airlines will need 28,140 single-aisles valued at $3 trillion
2016 to 2035New airplanes
28,140
2015Airplanes
14,870
2035Airplanes32,280
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Asia40%
North America
19%
Europe21%
Middle East 5%
Latin America
9%
C.I.S.3%
Africa3%
Share of fleet Delivery units
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Single-aisle seat capacity growing at ~1% per year
120
130
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150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
Market LCC
Outlook
Average single-aisle seat capacity
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Single-aisle seating capacity increasing
Fast growing
LCCs
Modest
upgauging
Improved cabin
efficiencies
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Medium-size aircraft are at heart of single-aisle market
SOURCE: Ascend Online Data June 28, 2016All passenger jet airplanes >110 seats in commercial use
76%
19%5%
Backlog
Large – MAX 9 size
Small – MAX 7 size
Medium – MAX 8 size
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Airlines will need 9,100 wide-bodies valued at $2.8 trillion
Share of fleet Delivery units
2016 to 2035New airplanes
9,100
2015Airplanes
5,040
2035Airplanes10,450
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Asia41%
North America
15%
Europe17%
Middle East19%
Latin America
3%
C.I.S.2%
Africa3%
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
In 1990, >30 routes to / from Tokyo were served by large airplanes
SOURCE: OAG / Innovata
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
In 2016, only 8 routes to / from Tokyo served by large airplanes
SOURCE: OAG / Innovata
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Shift from large to smaller wide-bodies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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747
A380
777
A340
MD11
787
A330
A350-900
767
A300/A310
30% of fleet 11% of fleet
SOURCE: Ascend commercial passenger widebody fleet in service at year-end
Copyright © 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Market summary
Market remains resilient, long-term growth continues
Single-aisle stays fastest growing segment
Wide-body fleet will double
Copyright © 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved.
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