Current Scenario of Cotton cultivation & its impacts.

Dr.R.A.SherasiyaDr.R.A.SherasiyaDirector of Agriculture

Gujarat State, Gandhinagar

Venue: CEE,AhmedabadDate: 6/10/2007

General Information

Agriculture

Total Geographical Area : 196 lakh hectares Net Area Sown: 98.51 lakh hectares

Total Cropped Area: 114.21 lakh hectares

Agro Climatic Zones: 8

Area under Irrigation in Gujarat

Total irrigated area: 41.11 lakh hectares ( 41.73 % against net area sown 98.51 lakh hectares . (2003-04)

After completion of major and medium Projects – 64 lakh hectares (64.97% against Net Area Sown 98.51 lakh hectares )

Gujarat Agriculture at a Glance cont..

Source SCR 2003-04

Land Utilisation in Gujarat

26.08

11.45

19.77

8.50

98.51

5.68

18.54

0.11

Forest Area under non agri Barren & unculturable

Permenent pasture Culturable waste Other fallow

Current Fallow Net area sown

Area in lakh ha.

Net Area Sown: 98.51 lakh hectares, Total Cropped Area: 114.21 lakh hectares

Net Area Sown

Cropping pattern ..

Area ( In Lakh Hact)CROP / YEAR 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Actual Actual Estimated Estimated

Food grains 40.34 36.61 40.44 43.61

Oilseeds 29.5 29.77 32.82 33.35

Cotton 16.41 19.06 20.77 23.90

Oil seed35%

Cotton24% Food

grain43%

Yr. 2006-07

Sr. No.

Decade Avg. Area ( lakh ha.)

Avg.Production ( lakh bales)

Avg.Productivity Kg/ha.(lint)

1 1950-1959 15.03 9.30 105

2 1960-1969 17.39 15.48 151

3 1970-1979 19.06 19.46 174 4 1980-1989 13.10 16.18 210 5 1990-1999 14.95 23.93 272

Past scenario Of Cotton in Gujarat state

15.0

3 17.3

919

.06

13.1 14

.95

0

5

10

15

20

25

50s 60s 70s 80s 90s

Decade

Are

a in

La

kh H

a. Area

Sr.No. Year Area

( lakh ha.) Production ( lakh bales)

Productivity Kg/ha.(lint)

1 2000-2001 16.15 11.61 122 2 2001-2002 17.50 17.02 165 3 2002-2003 16.34 16.84 175 4 2003-2004 16.41 40.26 417 5 2004-2005 19.66 55.43 479 6 2005-2006 20.77 73.79 604 7 2006-07 23.90 87.87 625

Recent scenario Of Cotton in Gujarat state

IN 2002-03, INTRODUCTION OF BT. COTTON

Over view of Cotton in Gujarat

Considerable area since long Response of new varieties on Area shown

Desi Indo American (50s) Hybrid (70)

Decline in Area in 80s Constant Increase in yield till 90s Hybrid performed well during 90s (356 kg lint/ha in 1997-98)

Reduced yield in 2000-01,2001-02, 2002-03 (Boll worm menace)

Sudden hike in area & Yield form 2003-04 (Introduction of Bt)

N

Pre-B.T. 2002-03Pre-B.T. 2002-03 Major Cotton growing districts Major Cotton growing districts ((Area >25000 ha.)

Post -B.T. 2007-08Post -B.T. 2007-08

KutchhMahesana

Jamnagar

sabarkantha

Rajkot

Amreli

SurendranagarA’bad

Bhavnagar Bharuch

Vadodara

KutchhMahesana

Jamnagar

sabarkantha

Rajkot

Amreli

SurendranagarA’bad

Bhavnagar Bharuch

Vadodara

Narmada

Gandhinagar

Juangadh

Patan11 Districts

17 Districts

B.K.

Kheda

District-wise Area under Cotton Crop during Kahrif -07(2007-08) Sr.No. District Target Sown

Area Area1 Ahmedabad 1750 1876 107.202 Banaskantha 125 307 245.603 Vadodara 1750 1694 96.804 Broach 1550 1392 89.815 Narmada 450 442 98.226 Gandginagar 275 324 117.827 Kheda 300 258 86.008 Anand 5 37 740.009 Mehsana 450 438 97.33

10 Patan 1000 635 63.5011 Panchmahals 85 65 76.4712 Dahod 50 6 12.0013 Sabarkantha 800 1018 127.2514 Surat 98 90 91.8415 Amreli 1450 2339 161.3116 Bhavnagar 2375 3139 132.1717 Jamnagar 1000 1903 190.3018 Junagadh 350 607 173.4319 Probandar 65 135 207.6920 Kutchh 410 569 138.7821 Rajkot 2550 3509 137.6122 Surendranagar 3900 4385 112.44

Total 20788 25168 121.07

% area sown against target

Why cotton in Gujarat ?

Suitable Soil type & climate Trade, processing & Industrial Support since long Business instincts & Higher adoptability of farmers Crop sustain long dry spell & variable monsoon

pattern Better suitable for rain-fed farming (only 33 % irrigation) Better income in adverse condition Lucrative Price Research & Extension support Species suitability for variable climate

( Arid / Semi arid / Mild tropic)

Prospect of Cotton depends on..

Tread / Industrial support Price policy & export Sustainable yield Insect / pest infestation Cost of cultivation Irrigation facility Research, Extension & Market support WTO policy Lint quality New technology like Transgenic cotton in field of

Biotic and A-biotic Stress.

World trade (In M.bale of 170 kg)

Year Cotton Production Consumption Export

2000-01 114.79 119.25 34.45

2001-02 127.48 122.25 37.65

2002-03 114.23 127.43 39.28

2003-04 123.04 127.55 42.77

2004-05 155.85 140.72 45.23

2005-06 144.57 148.03 52.81

Production is unstable Consumption & export has increasing trend

Source : fas.usda

Cotton market prices (Rs.Per quintal)

Sr.No. Year Support price Rs.

Market prices Rs.

1. 2001-2002 1840 1650-1825

2. 2002-2003 1860 2025-2395

3. 2003-2004 1910 2239-2900

4. 2004-2005 1960 1620-2130

5. 2005-2006 1985 1950-2149

6. 2006-2007 2005 2150-2500

7. 2007-2008 2055 -

Unstable price May adversely affect cotton cultivation

Cost of cultivation of Cotton

Cost of cultivation (in Rs./hect.) Sr. No.

Component

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

A. Seed 960 1410 1900 1900 3063 B. Insecticide/Pesticide 1867 2174 1779 1779 1850 C. Cost – C1 29901 33145 35749 35749 41249 D. Cost – C2 32891 36460 39324 39324 45374 E. Yield/hect. In qtl. 13.33 15.90 19.55 19.55 23.03 F. Return/hac. Over Cost-C1 -36 875 5016 5016 7832 G. Return/hac. Over Cost-C2 -3026 -2440 1441 1441 3707 H. Cost of prod. /qtl. Over Cost-C1 2202.70 2044.97 1793.40 1793.40 1759.92 I Cost of prod. / qtl. Over

Cost-C2 (C1+Management charges)

2427.01 2253.46 1976.27 1976.27 1939.03

Year 2004-05

• Increases seed cost but reduce pesticides cost• Increases Yield & Increases Net Return

Different count group cotton required

100.00

HB, Barb2.00101s-120s8.

HB Barb2.0081s-100s7.

HH, HB, Barb2.3361s-80s6.

Hirs,HH12.9741s-60s5.

Hirs,HH26.0531s-40s4.

Hirs, HH,ah18.8121s-30s3.

HH,Herb, ah19.3011s-20s2.

Herb, Arb, aa18.561s-10s1.

Present species

% cotton required

Count groupSl.No.

Requirement of lint

Current bt. Hybrid have potential to meet 50 -60 % requirement of lint

Dependable crop since long Increasing world Consumption & export Better price support Increasing net return Catch major quality segment of lint Increasing Irrigation facilities (SSNL / Farm pond / Water conservation / Micro-irrigation)

Increasing Research / Extension support

PROSPECT OF COTTON IN GUJARAT

Introduction in 2002-03

STORY OF BT. Cotton

Sr. No.

Year Varieties in market

Gene

1 2002-03 3 BG-I

2 2003-04 3 BG-I

3 2004-05 4 BG-I

4 2005-06 12 BG-I & BG-II

5 2006-07 27 BG-I, BG-II& Fusion

6 2007-08 72 BG-I, BG-II& Fusion

Adoption of technology Bt. cotton packets sold in Gujarat

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Years

Pac

kets

in N

o's

Packets SoldSr.no

Year No. of packets

sold

1 2002-03 18587

2 2003-04 103740

3 2004-05 333402

4 2005-06 368812

5

6

2006-07

2007-08(Expectation)

1007442

3478490

Impact of Bt. Cotton on Production in Gujarat

16.1

5

11.6

1

17.4

9

17.0

3

16.3

5

16.8

5

16.4

1

40.2

7

19.0

6

47.5

5

20.7

7

73.7

9

23.9

87.8

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

6070

80

90

'00-01 '01-02 '02-03 '03-04 '04-05 '05-06 '06-07'

AREA (in lakh ha.)

Production (in lakh bales)

1. Insecticide use decline; Miscellaneous insects of minor importance such as bugs would create problems.

2. Reduced pyrethroids: Pink bollworm & Spodoptera likely to re-emerge. H. armigera & whitefly backseat

3. Susceptibility to sucking pests –because of susceptible exotic donor parent !! (Coker 312)

4. Reduction in efforts for conventional breeding approaches for OTHER pest management.

5. Shift in focus; away from research on other pest management methods

Indirect consequences of Bt Cotton

SWOT analysis of Bt crop

Huge investment Increasing areaEffective against ball worm Target specific Reduce use of insecticides

Lack of location specific Package of

Practices Lack of Coordination among various

agencies Competition & Lots of variety Lack of proper awareness in public Higher seed prices

> 20 Lakh area under cotton Innovative & adoptive farmers Increases area under irrigation > 20 cotton growing dist. Can reduce cost of cultivation

Development of Resistance in pest Resurgence of minor pest Spurious seed

STRENGTH WEAKNESS

OPPORTUNITY THREATS

SUSTAIN OVER COME

CAPTURE MITIGATE

BY Effective .. Research Extension Law enforcement policy Coordination

SUSTAIN

OVER COME

CAPTURE

MITIGATE

Bt. Cotton in Gujarat

Area of Bt.Hybrid Kharif-07 (13.96 Lakh Ha.)

Area of Bt.Hybrid Khari-06

( 4.03 Lakh ha.)

Impact of Bt.

+ 10 Lakh Ha.