View
220
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Current Status and Ongoing Development of BlueSky
Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service)Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology)
Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project MeetingUW, April 13, 2007
BlueSky Framework
WEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT
FIRE INFORMATIONREPORTING SYSTEMS
FUEL LOADING
CONSUMPTION
EMISSIONS
MET INTERPRETER
DISPERSION
TRAJECTORIES
SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS
Framework is• Modular• Open-sourced• Portable
BlueSky Framework
WEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT
Wildfire ICS 209FASTRACS
RAZUManual
Other
FIRE INFORMATIONREPORTING SYSTEMS
FCCSHardy (West)
NFDRS
EPMFEPS
BURNUPIdealized profile
CONSUME 1.02CONSUME 3
BURNUP
MM5WRF
HYSPLIT
CALPUFFHYSPLIT
CALMM5
FUEL LOADING
CONSUMPTION
EMISSIONS
MET INTERPRETER
DISPERSION
TRAJECTORIES
SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS
Framework is• Modular• Open-sourced• Portable
Real-time products using BlueSkyNWS Smoke
Forecast Product(lower 48)
AirPACT3 & ClearSky(PNW, Lamb & Vaughan, WSU)
FCAMMS (5 regional centers, covering lower 48)
BlueSky + RAINS = BlueSkyRAINS
7
BlueSky-West Frank Church Evaluation: Findings and Recommendations
Bluesky models long-range transport very well.
8
• Fires are currently modeled as single plumes, lofting smoke unrealistically high and lowering ground impacts
• In reality, fires are made of many burning areas lofting smoke to various heights
Modeled
Reality
Plume Rise
Fire Information Issues
Fire information can be of poor quality
Smoke predictionsdepend on the fireinformation
Courtesy Tim Brown, DRI
U.S. Fire Report Locations
11
Total PM 2.5 Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
EPM FEPS FOFEM Consume3 EPM FEPS FOFEM Consume3
Frank Church
FCCS
HARDY
NFDRS
Rex Creek
Light HeavyFuel Loadings(even in the same veg type)
can vary hugely
Emissions based on Fuel Load and FuelConsumption ModelChoices
Photos courtesy Ottmar et al.
Which model is best?
The Next-Generation BlueSkyAirFire, Sonoma Technology, Inc., and NASA ROSES Grant
Facilitate sustained operations. Improve inputs and settings. Enhance user experience and access. Add user-oriented functions. Continue benchmarking performance.
courtesy W. Hao
14
• Revamped code-base(Professional)
• More models• More modular• More reliable
• Eliminate variants
BlueSky Framework(new)
15
SMARTFIRE
Ground-based systems
Satellite fire info(NOAA HMS)
Reconciled fire infoincluding sub-grid fuels and plume information
BLUESKY
SMARTFIRE: Incorporating satellite fire data
Expert Users(e.g. Incident Command Teams)
17
Cave Creek Complex Fire Area Comparison
0
50
100
150
200
250
6/22 6/24 6/26 6/28 6/30 7/2 7/4 7/6
Daily Acres (thousands)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Cumulative Acres (thousands)
MODIS 750-m DailyMODIS 1-km dailyICS-209 DailyBARC CumulativeICS-209 CumulativeMODIS 750-m Cum.MODIS 1-km Cum.
19
Overview Animations National Coordination Weather Related Links User Guide HelpBlueSky
Legend Scenario AdvancedCurrent Tool: Zoom InData
Predicted PM2.5 – 12 km
Surface Winds – 12 km
Modeled Surface Parameter
Modeled Wind Parameter
Measured Parameter
PM2.5 – AIRNow
Query
Contact Us Privacy and Security Statistics
Welcome, Sean Raffuse My Account Sign Out
Overview Map
Advance Hour
PST
Go to Default Map Set as Default Map Clear Default Map
This spring: Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE) Initial BlueSky Framework rewrite available Consistent BlueSky predictions across all
FCAMMS + consistent RAINS implementation
Later this year: Integrated national 36km CMAQ grid + higher-
resolution regional FCAMMS forecasts Revised interface (AIRNowTech? RAINS2?) Partnering with AIRNow
By next year (?): Ability to ‘what-if’ prescribed burns Ensemble forecasts
Summary: Coming Soon
• International? (Satellite fire detects don’t stop at border)
• Incorporate all fire info sources(SMARTFIRE?)
• Run overall grid(e.g. 36km CMAQ, other)
• Have this feed more regional applications
- all in one [AQ need](CMAQ, WRF-CHEM, other)
- smoke management specific (turn fires off/on,
etc...)(CALPUFF/HYSPLIT)
The Future?
22
User Needs
2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs for Air Quality
What is going to happen?would ideally like 1 number (possibly w/uncertainty or probability distribution)
care about all types of pollutants (not just smoke) for Smoke Management
What if? (I do this) (or that) (or that other thing)would ideally like to know what if? to a large number of management choices
Mostly just care about smoke
These two distinct user groups lead to different (but related) systems
23
A Possible Solution
Overall National GridAll-in-one (one atmosphere)
Coarser grid
• CMAQ• ~36 km grid• 1 run• all pollutants
• EPA• NWS
Regional GridsHigher resolution
• 1-4 km grids (finer?)
Regional AQ• CMAQ• all pollutants• 1 run• EPA / NWS / ?
Smoke Management• many runs• smoke only• CALPUFF / HYSPLIT• USFS / USDOI / ?
Decisions impacting smoke