CWG COA Program Review Panel #8 Space-based Observing Systems and Related Data Stewardship

CWG Review April 11-13, 20071

CWG COA Program Review

Panel #8Space-based Observing Systems and

Related Data Stewardship

Panel Moderator: Mark AbbottChair: Jeff Privette

April 13, 2007


COA Program Review Panel 8: Space Obs. & Stewardship

Activities• Planning support of climate-related satellite missions

Cost studies Variable prioritization

• Climate Data Record (CDR) development and stewardship Support of sensor calibration, pre- and post-launch characterization Sensor monitoring Algorithm development/refinement CDR (re-)processing and configuration management (CM) Product validation Data Handling (documentation, metadata, QA, data librarian functions)

CDRs Cal/Val data, including sensor performance and configuration

CLASS interfacing


Key Questions

What is NOAA’s role in space observing and related data stewardship in Climate and what are NOAA’s expectations?

What is the current status of NOAA/NASA activities related to Nunn-McCurdy and NRC Decadal Survey?

What role can (should) COA or the Climate Goal play in the satellite observing system?

How are we working to overcome current obstacles to success?

How does the interagency “process” factor into the Climate Goal (including research to operations)?

What are the impediments and solution to developing climate data records?


Outline

Scientific Data Stewardship – History Steps Toward Operational Production

of Climate Data Records– Prioritization– Production– Productivity

Climate Goal response to NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy and Decadal Survey


Outline

Scientific Data Stewardship – History

Steps Toward Operational Production of Climate Data Records– Prioritization– Production– Productivity



NOAA’s Scientific Data Stewardship rooted in NRC dialogue and reports

NOAA/NRC SDS leads

– Bates

– Goldberg

Scientific Data Stewardship


NRC – NOAA Response

With the transition of the U.S. Global Change Research Program into the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), NOAA was identified as the lead U.S. Agency on climate.

NOAA’s new climate mandate is fundamentally different from its traditional weather forecasting mandate and raises a new set of challenges owing to the varied uses of climate data, the complexities of data generation, and the difficulties in sustaining the program indefinitely.

In response to this change and the planned transition of NASA research climate observing missions to the NPOESS mission, the Scientific Data Stewardship Project was proposed to begin the operational production of climate data records.


Key Elements of a Successful CDR Program

CDR Organizational Elements

• High-level leadership council

• Advisory council to represent climate research community and other stakeholders

• Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) Teams

• Thematic Climate Data Record (TCDR) Teams

CDR Organizational Elements

• High-level leadership council

• Advisory council to represent climate research community and other stakeholders

• Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) Teams

• Thematic Climate Data Record (TCDR) Teams

CDR Generation Elements

• High accuracy and stability of FCDRs

• Pre-launch characterization of sensors and lifetime monitoring

• Thorough calibration of sensors

• Well-defined criteria for TCDR selection

• Stakeholder involvement and feedback for TCDRs

• Well-defined criteria for TCDR validation

• Use of in-situ data for validation

CDR Generation Elements

• High accuracy and stability of FCDRs

• Pre-launch characterization of sensors and lifetime monitoring

• Thorough calibration of sensors

• Well-defined criteria for TCDR selection

• Stakeholder involvement and feedback for TCDRs

• Well-defined criteria for TCDR validation

• Use of in-situ data for validation

Sustaining CDR Elements

• Available resources for reprocessing CDRs as new information becomes available

• Provisions for feedback from scientific community

• Long-term commitment of resources for generation and archiving of CDRs and associated data

Sustaining CDR Elements

• Available resources for reprocessing CDRs as new information becomes available

• Provisions for feedback from scientific community

• Long-term commitment of resources for generation and archiving of CDRs and associated data

Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR): Time series of calibrated signals for a family of sensors together with the ancillary data used to calibrate them.

Thematic Climate Data Record (TCDR): Geophysical variables derived from FCDRs, often generated by blending satellite observations, in-situ data, and model output.

A Climate Data Record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change

Climate Working

Group

NOAA Science Advisory

Board


CLASS Working Group


Program Management

Research Climate Data Science Teams

FCDR Teams

Observations Scoping

Requirement Systems

C2D2 NCDC ORA

FY06EDSM $2.5M

C2D2 $1 to $1.5MGovernance and Management Structure

TCDR Teams

R&D Products and

Services Theme Areas

NOAA

(5-10%)

External

(1-2%)

NOAA, Other

Agencies External Scientific

(~90%)

NOAA Climate Program & Climate Board

NOAA Observing System Council

Operational CDR Generation & Data Mgmt.

CDR Generation

NOAA

Other Agencies

Universities

Private Sector

CLASS

NOAA IT Infrastructure

operators

Research to

Operations

Currently exists FY05 FY06

NOAA’s Scientific Data Stewardship Program

9


Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System(GSICS)

OBJECTIVES Improve global satellite data sets by

ensuring observations are well calibrated through operational analysis of instrument performance, satellite intercalibration, and validation over reference sites

Provide ability to re-calibrate archived satellite data with consensus GSICS approach, leading to stable fundamental climate data records (FCDR)

Ensure pre-launch testing is traceable to SI standards

IMPLEMENTATION NESDIS/STAR coordination International participation

STATUS GSICS-1 convened in January 2007

– Method intercomparison underway

NEXT STEPS Commission routine web-accessible on-orbit

intercalibration monitoring statistics of MTSAT, MSG and GOES IR imagers with high spectral resolution IASI and AIRS; and intercalibration statistics between EUMETSAT and NOAA IR and MW sounder/imagers (e.g. AIRS vs IASI, MODIS vs AVHRR, HIRS vs IASI)

Research WG Data WG

Coordination Center

Regional Processing ResearchCenters at Operational Space Agencies

Calibration Support Segments (reference sites, benchmark measurements)


Outline

Scientific Data Stewardship – History Steps Toward Operational

Production of Climate Data Records– Prioritization– Production– Productivity



Operational Climate Data Records –Prioritization, Production, & Productivity


CCSP identified– Thematic Areas where data

may provide societal benefit– Scientific Questions for

which data are needed to address

Societal Benefits of the Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS) emphasize applied climatology using 21st century systems

Scientific Questions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Issues address the policy-relevant research topics of highest priority for Climate and Global Change studies

Determining Societal Benefits and Scientific Questions


Prioritization Approach

CCSP and Other Groups have identified ~40 “Essential Climate Variables” (ECVs) q– e.g., Total Solar Irradiance, Snow Cover, Ozone

ECV weighting scheme reflects the expected contribution of a data set to each of the Thematic Areas and Scientific Questions

Prioritization results from strength & breadth of contribution– Trying to avoid disciplinary myopia

Adding additional information based on availability of current and past data sets


Outline





Production of CDRs vs. EDRs

Sensor DataRecords (SDRs)

Data (Direct & Remotely Sensed)

Fundamental Climate Data

Records (FCDRs)

Thematic Climate Data Records

(TCDRs)

Climate Data Records or Homogenized Time Series

Homogenization and Calibration

Time-tagged Geo-Referenced

Converted to Bio-Geophysical

Variables

EnvironmentalData Records

(EDRs)

Converted to Bio-Geophysical

Variables

Climate Data Records

Re

pro

ce

ss

ing


NOAA CDR Production – “Climate Central” Requirements

– For reprocessing, SDS requires an IDPS-like system (Climate Central) to process:

– SDS interdependent

with CLASS, e.g., large data set I/O

– Reprocessing– Requires full

production engineering

NOAA/CLASS Users

ACQUIRE RDRs

IMPROVED SDRsMULTISATELLITE

FCDRs

PROCESS TCDRs

PROVIDEASSESSMENTSIMPROVEMENTS

NOAASDS

CLIMATECENTRAL

Products and Services

Provide FCDRs and TCDRs

RDR SDR Multi-satellite FCDRs & TCDRs

Existing Site

Planned Site

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

100

700

1300

1900 10

070

013

0019

00 100

700

1300

1900

LST

tem

per

atu

re (

K)

CRN sfc temp

GOES-12 sfc temp

Courtesy: A. Heidinger, UWisc.

• CRN data are already used to evaluate satellite products in project studies

Merced (CA)Merced (CA)

Stovepipe Wells (CA) Stovepipe Wells (CA) Death Valley National ParkDeath Valley National Park


Production Example

Reynolds SST Data Flow Diagram


Production – Full Provenance Tracking 3 Days of Reynolds SST


Outline




Hurricane intensity historically estimated from “best track” data, in spite of its inherent temporal heterogeneities

NCDC provided homogeneous 23-year satellite data set (~CDR)

– >20 satellites in 14 formats– Removed intra-series and temporal biases– Comprise ~169,000 observations (~2000 storms)

UW developed an objective analysis algorithm to work with NCDC data

– Algorithm trained in N. Atlantic and E. Pacific– Very similar to objective Dvorak technique which is

valid in all oceanic basins

“UW/NCDC” intensities have little temporal bias

Productivity - Hurricane Intensity Reanalysis

~169,000 images~2,000 tropical cyclones


Outline





Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals Recent Activities

June 2006: NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification approved

June 2006 : NOAA-NASA brief OSTP on impacts of Certification on the nation’s climate goals

January 2007: NOAA-NASA deliver a Joint Assessment (“White Paper”) to OSTP (72 pp.)– Focused on Certification’s climate impacts and recovery options– Major emphasis on sustaining climate data records

Climate Change Science Program / Global Climate Observing System lists– Primarily followed Certification Board recommendation

Procuring lost sensors outside of Integrated Program Office (IPO) Remanifesting sensors onto NPOESS platforms (IPO would cover integration)

February 2007: NRC Decadal Survey – Recommends “restore key observational capabilities to NPOESS”– NOAA:

Measurements of solar irradiance and Earth radiation budget Measurements of ocean vector winds and all-weather SST OMPS-Limb (high vertical resolution ozone sounding)

IMPACTS OF NPOESS

NUNN-McCURDY CERTIFICATION

ON JOINT NASA-NOAA

CLIMATE GOALS

January 8, 2007


NPOESS ECV Coverage

• ALBEDO (SURFACE)• LAND SURFACE TEMP• LAND COVER• OCEAN COLOR• VEGETATION LEAF AREA• VEGETATION FAPAR• FIRES DISTURBANCE

• CLOUD PROPERTIES• SEA ICE• SNOW COVER• SEA SURFACE TEMP• UPPER AIR WIND (POLES)

• SOLAR IRRADIANCE

• AEROSOL PROPERTIES

• PRECIPITATION•SURFACE WIND SPD & DIRECTION

• ATMOS. WATER VAPOR• UPPER AIR TEMP

• OZONE• METHANE, CO2, GHG

• RADIATION BUDGET (SFC & TOA)

• SEA STATE• SEA LEVEL

VIIRS(14)

TSIS(1)

APS(1)

MIS (W/ OVW CAPABILITY)(10)

CrIS/ATMS(4)

OMPS(2)

SESS(0)

ERBS/CERES)(1)

ALT(4)

Homeless:• OCEAN SALINITY• BIOMASS

• LAKES

• GLACIERS/ICE CAPS


Impacts of Nunn-McCurdy By Sensor

1. Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)

2. Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS)

3. Ocean Altimeter (ALT)

4. Ozone Mapping & Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Subsystem

5. Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS)

6. Mid-AM VIIRS

De-manifested Sensors in Science Priority


NPOESS ECV Coverage

• ALBEDO (SURFACE)• LAND SURFACE TEMP• LAND COVER• OCEAN COLOR• VEGETATION LEAF AREA• VEGETATION FAPAR• FIRES DISTURBANCE

• CLOUD PROPERTIES• SEA ICE• SNOW COVER• SEA SURFACE TEMP• UPPER AIR WIND (POLES)

• PRECIPITATION•SURFACE WIND SPD & DIRECTION

• ATMOS. WATER VAPOR• UPPER AIR TEMP

• OZONE• METHANE, CO2, GHG

VIIRS(14)

MIS (10)

CrIS/ATMS(4)

OMPS(2)

• LAKES

• GLACIERS/ICE CAPS

= Downgraded capability (via orbit, component or requirement losses)


Global Essential Climate Variables (ECVS- Groups of CDRs) with Heritage Records


Current Related Activities

February 2007: OSTP requests a NOAA-NASA cost/risk study – Remanifestation of sensors onto NPOESS (Two options)

Option 1 – NPOESS/IPO procures the sensors Option 2 – “GFE” sensors to IPO for integration on NPOESS satellites

– Parallel cost-study of alternative options Free-flyers, foreign missions, etc

Spring 2007: Decadal Survey Committee initiating a supplemental study– NPOESS and GOES-R (HES) impacts and mitigation– 3-day workshop in May/June 2007

Decadal Survey Response

Capitalization of NOAA Satellite Systems

NOAA-NASA Research-to-Ops (R2O) collaboration report to Congress


OSTP Action

Excerpts from OSTP communiqué on 2/07/07 in response to the NOAA-NASA Joint Assessment

– “more analysis is needed in terms of possible mitigation options for those impacts (the paper currently focuses only on re-manifesting sensors onto NPOESS but does not look at projected costs or other mitigation strategies)”

– “it is important to begin assessing the potential costs of such strategies (both for the NPOESS-based solutions as well as other possible mitigation options), so that we can more clearly understand the trade-offs of various approaches.”

– “goal is to have enough information available in time to inform the FY2009 budget process. To meet that goal, the analyses outlined above would be most helpful if completed by May 1st.”


Plan

Priority is to avoid or minimize measurement gaps

Estimate costs of sensor procurement and integration– Demanifested sensors only (altimeter, APS, ERBS, OMPS-Limb, TSIS)– Initial estimates: per-sensor basis for flights on NPOESS C2-C4 only

Altimetry flights on different platforms (Joint Assessment recommendation) – NASA GFE approach– NOAA/IPO approach

Estimate costs of Climate Science Support– Per-sensor estimates for all sensors

Certified / Demanifested / Alternatives– Initial estimates cover NPOESS C2-C4 and gap-filler flights

NASA research missions, foreign-supplied raw data Complete life-cycle costs (2008-2026)

– Develop spreadsheet model for initial estimations– Develop a comprehensive computer model in parallel

More refined estimations at a later date– Incorporates sensor expert guidance

NOAA + Co-op institutions


Team Organization

Steering: Mary Kicza and Mike Freilich Leads:

– NOAA: Jeff Privette and Jim O’Neal– NASA: Bryant Cramer and Steve Neeck

Ex Officio: Chet Koblinsky, Tom Karl, Mike Tanner Working Group:

– NOAA Chief Financial Office: Darrell Robertson and Mahendra Shrestha– PEO/SUAG Representative: Mike Bonadonna– Cost Modeling

Consultants: John Bates (NOAA), Dave Young (NASA/Langley & NESDIS HQ) Detailed model development: Bruce Barkstrom (NOAA)

– Sensor Expert Teams TSIS: Rossow (City University of New York [CUNY]), Barkstrom (NOAA) ERBS: Rossow (CUNY), Ackerman (Wisconsin) ALT: Wilson (NOAA), Miller (NOAA) OMPS-Limb: Flynn (NOAA), Ravishankara (NOAA) APS: Murphy (NOAA), Ravishankara (NOAA) CMIS: Janowiak (NOAA), Chang (NOAA), Chelton (Oregon), Arkin (Maryland) CrIMMS: Barnett (NOAA), Goldberg (NOAA) VIIRS: Menzel (NOAA), Reynolds (NOAA), Privette (NOAA) Support: Goldberg (NOAA), Menzel (Wisconsin), Justice (UMD), Weng (JCSDA)


Primary Mitigation Strategy

2008

2010

2015

2020

2025

TSIS

ERBS

Altimeter

OMPS - Limb

(C)MIS & Vector Winds

APS

Mid-AM Imager

Glory

Initially Costed Procurements

Terra(MODIS)

Aqua

Aura

Jason-1

Terra, Aqua

SORCE

FOO

Assumed Flight: Not CostedPotential Flight: Not CostedNPOESS Mitigation Flight: Costed

NPP

Glory

NPP/CERES

OSTM

FOO C3/ERBS

FOO C2 C4

FOO C3

MetOp-A(AVHRR)

C2/MIS C3/MIS

*Jason series is TBD. XOVWM represents scatterometer data from yet unidentified source(s).

• Flights shown in yellow: procurement/integration costs pending NASA study completion (~Apr.20)

• Climate Science Support costs assume all Certified, Mitigated and heritage sensors (all years)

Jason-3* Jason-4* Jason-5*

MetOp-B(AVHRR)

MetOp-C(AVHRR)

XOVWM1* XOVWM2*QuikSCAT XOVWM3*

C4/MIS

C3


DS Response: Approach

Focus on the Observing Requirements behind the recommended solutions (missions)

Place continuity as most important attribute

Exploit existing NOAA Processes– NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA)– Gap Analysis and Solution Determination

(GASD) Process– PPBES


Gap Analysis and Solution Determination (GASD)

=f(Measurements)SuggestedSolutions


NOAA Program Obs System

PrioritySys Owner

Status LifetimeGeo

CoverageHorzRes

Msmnt Accuracy

Msmnt Refresh

RGA

WW-LFW 1 --- 2009-15 Hemi 12 km 2 m/sec 6 hr ---

DSMP_SSM/I DoD Op 1998-07 Global 55 km 2 m/sec 6 hr

QuikScat_SeaWinds NASA Op 1999-08 Global 25 km 2 m/sec 18 hr

ERS-2_AmiSCAT EU Op 1995-09 Global 50 km 2 m/sec 3 dy

Coriolis_WindSat DoD Op 2003-09 Global 50 km 2 m/sec 34 hr

DMSP_SSM/IS DoD Op 2003-17 Global 55 km 2 m/sec 6 hr

METOP_ASCAT EU Op 2006-20 Global 25 km 2 m/sec 6 hr

NPOESS_CMIS NOAA-DoD Canx 2013-27 Global 20 km 1.0 m/sec 6 hr

NPOESS_MIS NOAA-DoD Con 2013-27 Global 20 km 1.0 m/sec 6 hr

NASA_XOVWM NASA Con 2009-13 Global 2.5 km 2 m/sec 6 hr

GCOM_SeaWinds Japan Plnd 2014-23 Global 25 km

Radarsat-1 CSA Op Global 3.0 m 40 m/sec

CMAN NOAA Op Coastal 1.0 m/sec 0.167 hr

CREWS NOAA Op Coastal 0.2 m/sec

WP-3D NOAA Op Global 1.0 m/sec

Moored Buoys NOAA Op Coastal 1.0 m/sec 0.167 hr

NWLON NOAA Op Coastal 0.3 m/sec 0.1 hr

Drifting Buoys NOAA Op Coastal 466 km 1.5 m/sec 0.001 hr

PORTS NOAA Op Coastal 0.3 m/sec 0.1 hr

RAMAN NOAA Op Meso 0.1 m/sec 0.003 hr

SWMP NOAA Op Coastal 1.0 m/sec 5 sec

TAO NOAA Op Offshore 0.3 m/sec 0.5 sec

Assessing DS Mission Recommendations

In NOAA Context (NOSA)Example:Ocean Winds


SDS Addresses “Climate Central” Recommendation

NOAA, working with the Climate Change Science Program and the international Group on Earth Observations, should create a climate data and information system to meet the challenge of ensuring the production, distribution, and stewardship of high-accuracy climate records from NPOESS and other relevant observational platforms -- DS, p. 3-4


Key Questions

What is NOAA’s role in space observing and related data stewardship in Climate and what are NOAA’s expectations?

What is the current status of NOAA/NASA activities related to Nunn-McCurdy and NRC Decadal Survey?

What role can (should) COA or the Climate Goal play in the satellite observing system?

How are we working to overcome current obstacles to success?

How does the interagency “process” factor into the Climate Goal (including research to operations)?

What are the impediments and solution to developing climate data records?


Key Questions

What is NOAA’s role in space observing and related data stewardship in Climate and what are NOAA’s expectations?– Mission Planning, Project Management (Production, Stewardship)– Requirements: Appropriate funding ramp-up; interagency execution– Contingency planning

What is the current status of NOAA/NASA activities related to Nunn-McCurdy and NRC Decadal Survey?– NOAA’s FY09+ budget request assumes Nunn-McCurdy mitigation– Decadal Survey under consideration vis-à-vis Agency requirements

What role can (should) COA or the Climate Goal play in the satellite observing system?– Mission Planning, Project Management (Production, Stewardship)

How are we working to overcome current obstacles to success?– End-to-end vision (vs. piecemeal), procuring expertise and experience– Strong interaction with NOAA and NASA management

How does the interagency “process” factor into the Climate Goal (including research to operations)?– High level planning: Joint Working Group for Research and Operations– Project level planning: anticipates skills and contributions from outside NOAA

What are the impediments and solution to developing climate data records?– Impediment: Inadequate Funding. Solution: Adequate Funding.


Conclusions

The foundations of operational production of satellite CDRs has begun within NCDC

Prioritization, production, and productivity has been scoped and analogs begun using current data sets

Resource requirements for SDS are now being captured in the NPOESS climate remanifesting exercises


The End

COA Program Review Panel 8: Space Obs. & Stewardship


Back up: Production Subsystems


Production Eng. Considerations

Essential Climate Variables – and the deeper ties to individual parameters and data structures contained in the files that usually contain archived data

Justification and Prioritization – provide the ties between ECVs and the societal benefits as well as scientific issues

Data Sources – the platforms and instruments that provide the Level 0 data, including satellite-based and in-situ sources

Data Set Versions – data collections that have common contents, common time intervals of data collection, common data sources, and homogeneous error structures

Data Flow Diagrams – and the extensions that provide the connectivity between different data sources and data versions

Uncertainty Assessments – which we treat like error budgets, with the added assessment of systematic biases and probability distributions

Production Schedules – based on both data sources and (re-)processing expectations


Brief History of Prioritization

What is the relative “value” of a given data set?

CCSP Prioritization Workshop (June 2006)– Difficulty in balancing satellite measurement priorities with

in-situ priorities – and priorities of different communities– Success constrained by 2-D spreadsheets

Initial Development of a Hypertext Alternative– Hypertext (Web-based) navigation approach provides better

balance between complexity and understandability– Led to a representation showing how Essential Climate

Variables interact with Scientific Questions Societal Benefits


Prioritization - Future Work

Extend Input Opportunities– Creating web site with extensive information on

satellites, instruments, in-situ data sources, and data products

Need Deeper and More Rigorous Approach to Prioritization– Can we quantify the economic value of climate data?– Can we quantify the required “Signal to Noise” for

climate data on a rigorous basis? Rigorous error budgets – and identification of physical basis

for error estimates Objective approaches to weighting influence of different

variables on climate change (e.g. OSSEs)


NPOESS Study: Next Steps

Review options for extending current acquisition strategies – APS, TSIS, CERES/ERBS, OMPS-Limb

Review options for international partnerships

Develop risk assessment using sensor TRL

Define NASA-NOAA roles and responsibilities

Develop climate budget profile for FY2009-2015– Continue to refine costs

OSTP May 1, 2007 delivery

OMB clearance

Terms-of-reference for in-depth study– Refine climate activities, costs, partnerships (incl. foreign)

Documents

CWG COA Program Review Panel #8 Space-based Observing Systems and Related Data Stewardship