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    DAYLIGHT &ARCHITECTUREMagazine by

    VeLUX

    AUTUMN

    2009

    I ssUe12

    FLOWS10eUro

    DAYLIGHT &ARCHITECTUREMagazine by

    VeLUX

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    1

    EVELUX

    EDITORIAL

    FLOWS

    In December 2009, the entire world will be looking

    towards Copenhagen. 10,000 politicians, represent-

    atives o civil society and t he media are expected

    to attend the COP 15 summit in the Danish capital.

    The aim is to get a new agreement o the ground to

    succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

    Goals or 2050 will be agreed and great expecta-

    tions are held or the conerence, some observerscalling it the last real opportunity to keep climate

    change within limits.

    The VELUX Group believes that it is o immeas-

    urable importance that an ambitious climate agree-

    ment with broad-reaching support is reached at the

    summit. We propose that buildings be put on the

    agenda as they account or up to 40 % o all energy

    consumption. We t ake responsibility as a company,

    and we strive to optimise our products and devise

    solutions or sustainable, CO2-neutral buildings.

    Implementing solutions in practice requires legis-

    lative rameworks and political incentives.

    We welcome incentives or energy renovation

    o housing that will improve the overall energy per-

    ormance through renewable energy solutions like

    active and passive solar gain with the objective o

    healthy buildings with good indoor climate, gener-

    ous daylight levels and high air exchange rates with

    natural ventilation.

    Words on CO2

    reduction must be transormed

    into realistic rameworks or action at COP 15

    also or the building stock. There is a huge poten-

    tial in changing our energy consumption in housing

    and other buildings i we want to reduce CO2 emis-

    sions signicantly. The path VELUX proposes is

    Sustainable Living. Basically, this is the concept o

    continually improving the quality o our homes and

    maintaining high living standards at the same time

    as reducing energy consumption and CO2emissions;

    to achieve this goal, the three key parameters are

    energy eciency, healthy indoor climate and renew-

    able energy.

    The VELUX Group can contribute with solutions

    and know-how to reduce CO2emissions in buildings

    through products that will contribute to a sustain-

    able uture.

    This issue o Daylight & Architecture puts the

    ocus on fows in cities. Cities, being a constella-

    tion o buildings, are huge crossroads o a constant

    fow o resources; materials, energy, people, day-

    light, money and much more keep on fowing into

    and out o them day ater day. 75 % o the worlds

    energy is used in cities, which represent a potential

    75 % o the solution to the major questions o how

    to minimise and optimise our use o resources.

    We have asked eleven experts to depict a spe-cic urban fow and an action point in terms o

    urban sustainability. The authors have developed

    scenarios o how urban fows could develop by the

    year 2050 and how we can make that development

    as sustainable as possible. Ater the scenarios, we

    then shit the ocus t o the decision makers, the key

    stakeholders or infuencing developments towards

    2050. How, today, can we dene and implement

    strategies and tools that will bring us to our desired

    goals more than 40 years hence? C40 is a group o

    the worlds major cities that have assumed leader-

    ship on how to reduce carbon emissions. We have

    interviewed the C40 secretariat on its approach

    to climate change. We also asked the local govern-

    ments o London (ounder o C40), Warsaw, Paris,

    Berlin and Copenhagen how they tackle the huge

    challenges.

    Furthermore, the Danish Minister o the Environ-

    ment, Connie Hedegaard, explains what is at stake

    at the COP 15 summit and how the business com-

    munity can act against climate change. The price

    to be paid or delaying action on climate change will

    just go on rising the longer we sit on our hands and

    do nothing, she argues.

    Finally, we bring an interview with the CEO o

    the VELUX Group, Jrgen Tang-Jensen holding

    up a mirror to ourselves and asking: how does the

    VELUX Group address and approach climate change

    problems and how do we actually reduce CO2

    emis-

    sions, by what means and timerame?

    In this issue, we have taken a dierent ap proach

    rom all the previous issues o Daylight & Archi-

    tecture, breaking with the usual categories and

    sequence. This is essential when discussing how

    we are to ensure a sustainable 2050, with resources

    and wealth or uture generations.

    Enjoy your read!

    1

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    3D&A AUTUMn 2009 ISSUE 12

    ities ad buildigs are gigatic cross-

    oads o fows o people ad materi-ls, eergy, water ad iormatio.

    ow we orgaise these fows i the

    uture will be a decisive actor i justow sustaiable the urther develop-

    met o plaet earth will be.Daylight & Architecture 12 stud-

    es the fows that shape our cities ad which huma lie depeds today.

    Mostly they are hidde, begiig

    d edig i ucertaity. This issue Daylight & Architecture is there-

    ore a attempt to make the ivisiblesible. Evocative black-ad-white

    hotos by Torbe Eskerod show howows are maiested i the eviro-

    met o our daily lives. O the other

    ad, the colourul graphs by the

    raphic desigers at Lamosca show

    he ote hidde cotexts ad makehe magitude o thigs visible both

    ocally ad globally.

    The structure o Daylight & Archi-ecture 12 also diers rom all pre-

    ous issues. Eleve articles, writtey eleve iteratioal experts, orm

    he rst ad largest part o this issue.hey cover oe topic each (oe fow)

    detail begiig with makid

    d ragig rom the resources it re-

    uires to the chages i thikig thatre ecessary or adaptig to climatehage. Ad the authors do ot just

    escribe the status quo. They develop

    cearios o what a better or worse

    world could look like i 2050, ad

    hey show optios or takig actio

    o achieve a sustaiable uture.A colour code makes it easier or

    eaders to d their way aroud thissue. The order o the articles has

    ee ituitively selected. It begis

    with people, whose quality o lie

    hould be the goal o ay sustaiable

    developmet, cotiues with its im-

    mediate eviromet ad eds withthe big topics o our age, like water

    supply, reewable eergy ad the bat-

    tle agaist climate chage.The secod part o Daylight & Ar-

    chitecture examies what cities adcompaies are already doig to ghtclimate chage today. How are they

    tacklig what is probably the great-

    est challege makid aces today?

    What do they expect rom politiciasad how do they ifuece their citi-zes ad employees?

    Sice 120 pages are ot early

    eough to cover the subject o this

    issue exhaustively, VELUX has madeurther resources available o the I-teret. Eleve short stories by up-ad-

    comig Daish authors o the elevefows oer a laymas respose to

    the experts articles. We also reer the

    reader to the website www.active-

    housig.et, which shows how build-igs ca react to the requiremets othe uture by producig their ow

    eergy, by makig practical use o

    water as a resource ad by promot-

    ig the well-beig o the occupats

    with daylight ad resh air.

    EVELUXEDITORIAL

    At the Uited natios Climate

    Chage Coerece COP 15 i Co-

    pehage, a ambitious climate

    agreemet with broad-reachig

    support will have to be reached. TheVELUX Group believes that it is o im-

    measurable importace that build-

    igs are put o the climate ageda

    with a higher priority tha they haveow, as they accout or up to 40%o all eergy cosumptio. The pathVELUX proposes is Sustaiable Liv-

    ig our ability to cotiue improv-ig the quality o our homes ad

    maitaiig high livig stadards

    while reducig eergy cosumptioad CO

    2emissios. The three key

    parameters to achieve this goal areeergy eciecy, healthy idoor cli-mate ad reewable eergy.

    DDISCOURSEBY TORnRRETRAnDERS

    Ayoe who wats sustaiability

    must reorgaise the fows o our

    lives rom a oe-way to a cradle-to-

    cradle system. Tor nrretraders de-

    scribes a way o thikig that has the

    su as its startig poit. It suppliesmay times the eergy that humabeigs curretly cosume (ad will

    ever cosume), ad it aloe is ec-

    essary to keep all the earths lie cy-cles goig.

    AUTUMN 2009SSUE 12

    CONTENTS

    SHORT STORIES

    People, iormatio ad moey,

    trasportatio, water ad the cli-

    mate are ot issues that occupy

    scietists aloe they are also im-

    portat topics i literature. Eleve o

    the most importat up-ad-comigDaish authors have writte short

    stories o the fows o our every-

    day lives exclusively or Daylight &

    Architecture. Their views are otesurprisig ad sometimes provoca-

    tive, but they all erich the discussio

    o sustaiability, climate protectioad the good lie. They ca be oud

    o the Iteret at da. velux.com

    COP15 LIVE EVENT

    A concrete example o anactive house is takin shape:

    For the Copehage Climate SummitCOP 15, VELUX developed a house

    that is carbo eutral ad will pro-

    vide its ihabitats with the higheststadard o idoor comort. Erectedi rot o Bella Ceter, the veue othe Climate Coerece, it will pro-

    vide the visitors o COP 15 a impres-sio o how architecture ca play a

    role i the worldwide eorts to over-

    come climate chage. Fid out moreabout the house at da.velux.com

    ACTIVE HOUSE

    Active House is a visioary resposeto the challeges described i this

    magazie buildigs that produce

    their ow eergy, use resources i

    a sustaiable maer, ad improve

    peoples health ad comort. They

    bridge the gap betwee makid

    ad its eviromet, betwee uturetechologies ad commo sese.Buildigs cosume 40 percet o

    all eergy i Europe. We sped 90

    percet o our time idoors but oly30 percet o all buildigs have a

    healthy iterior climate. The cocept

    o Active House uses takes acts as

    its startig poit. A Active House is

    desiged ad costructed to achievea balace betwee three parame-

    ters: eergy, idoor climate ad theeviromet. It uses the su as a

    eergy source to achieve a eutral

    CO2

    balace or the buildig, ad asa light source to icrease the well-be-

    ig o its occupats. A well-isulated,

    air-tight buildig evelope orms the

    basis or its eergy eciecy butthe cocept goes ar beyod this.

    Active Houses are adaptive houses;they adapt to the local climate co-

    ditios i terms o the use o daylight

    ad shade, vetilatio, ad heatig

    or coolig. By esurig a view to theoutside world, ad by their iterplaywith their surroudigs, they also

    merge with the local cotext..More iormatio o the cocept

    o Active House, o the rst exam-

    ples ad ews o evets i the eld

    o active architecture are availableat www.activehousig.et. Set up

    by VELUX, it sees itsel as a ope-source platorm to which ayoe ca

    cotribute.

    INTERNETVELUX.COMACTIVEHOUSINg.NET

    Daylight & Architecture presets

    eleve stories, posted o the Iter-

    et, about the fows o our everydaylives ad a buildig cocept that could

    set a precedet because it bridges

    the gap betwee resource eciecy,quality o lie ad the use o reew-

    able eergy sources. Fid out more

    at da.velux.com ad at www.active-housig.et.

    PAgES 19

    Correction or Daliht & Architecture 11:

    I the article etitled This buildig makes me a optimist i Daylight & Ar-chitecture 11, we reported that Wessel de Joge Architects were plaigthe reovatio o the Va nelle Otwerpabriek i Rotterdam, together withHubert-Ja Heket. This was icorrect - cooperatio betwee the two archi-

    tects oces reerred to reovatio o the Zoestraal saatorium i Hilver-sum. Additioally, the Va nelle actory is ot o UnESCOs World HeritageList, though applicatio or the same is uder preparatio.

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    5D&A AUTUMn 2009 ISSUE 12

    CITIES ANDCLIMATE CHANgETHE BATTLE AGAInSTCLIMATE CHAnGEWILL BE WOn OR LOSTIn OUR CITIES

    Uied or a major goal. Sice 2005,the worlds most importat major

    cities have take part i the iitia-

    tive C40 to combat climate chage.What strategies are they pursuig

    here, how do they motivate their cit-izes ad how importat is the mu-tual exchage o experiece to them?

    Mayors ad climate experts give

    their views i six iterviews.

    THE COP 15CLIMATE CHANgECONfERENCECOP 15 MUST REACHAn AMBITIOUSCLIMATE AGREEMEnT

    What ca ad must politicias doat the COP 15 Summit i Copeha-

    ge? Ad what ca ad must the

    busiess world do to combat climate

    chage ad limit global warmig? Iher article or Daylight & Architec-

    ture, Daish Miister o the Eviro-met Coie Hedegaard aswers

    both questios. She argues that

    reachig a ambitious global agree-

    met o climate protectio is a mat-ter o great urgecy. The busiess

    commuity, she writes, has a ce-

    tral role to play i dig cocrete

    solutios. Moreover, whoever watsto stay competitive i the uture willsimply have to develop ew gree

    products ad productio orms.

    THE VELUXCLIMATE STRATEgyBUILDInG MUST BEGIVEn TOP PRIORITYIn THE CLIMATEDEBATE

    I a Iterview with Daylight & Ar-

    chitecture, VELUX CEO Jrge Tag-Jese provides a isight ito the

    evirometal cocept o the com-

    pay ad ito the steps VELUX

    is takig to overcome the climate

    problem. I Jauary 2009, VELUX

    lauched a climate strategy, commit-tig itsel to reduce the Groups glo-bal CO

    2impact by 50% by the year

    2020. Measures iclude eergy e-ciecy measures i the VELUX ac-

    tories, but also products that help

    cliets to save eergy.VELUX is also actig to put sus-

    taiable buildigs o the ageda.

    Uder the cocept o Sustaiable

    Livig, the compay liks eergy e-ciecy, a healthy idoor climate ad

    the use o reewable eergies. Ex-

    amples o this approach ca be seei the Model Home 2020 iitiative.

    VELUX is collaboratig with archi-

    tects, cliets, egieers ad other

    buildig compoets mauactur-

    ers o this project to costruct six

    CO2-eutral houses. These real-lie

    experimets, which will put possible

    techological solutios to the test,

    will be erected i ve dieret Eu-

    ropea coutries over the ext twoyears.

    fACTS & LINKS

    More kowledge o the worlds

    fows: remarks ad urther sugges-

    tios or readig o the articles o

    pages 1299 are provided by eleveiteratioal experts.

    TIME OUTPAgES 98120

    THE fLOWSPAgES 1097

    2050 over 9,000 millio people will

    ve o the earth over two-thirds o

    hem i cities. How ca the fows oergy, materials ad people be last-gly structured i them? Experts

    rovide iormatio o the idivid-

    al topics begiig with makid

    ad ragig rom the resources it re-

    quires to the chages i thikig that

    are ecessary or adaptig to climate

    chage.

    I December 2009, the COP15 Un

    summit i Copehage will hope-

    ully poit the way to uture climateprotectio. More tha 10,000 poli-

    ticias ad represetatives o soci-

    ety, the busiess world ad the mediawill meet i the Daish capital to dis-cuss measures agaist urther glo-

    bal warmig. The expectatios or

    the summit are eormous. But it is

    ot just a issue or iteratioal pol-itics the climate problem cocers

    all o us ad it is a challege or bothcompaies ad idividual citizes.

    Daylight & Architecture asked whatthe worlds metropolises are doig

    to combat climate chage ad what

    strategies the VELUX Group is pursu-ig regardig this problem.

    10MICROCLIMATESCAn ARCHITECTSCHAnGE THEWEATHER?

    The larger ad more desely a city isbuilt, the less its iteral climate is

    liked to local weather. The urther

    climate chage advaces, the harder

    the urba heat islad eect hits city

    ihabitats. Peter Adreas Sattrupexplais how architects ad urba

    plaers ca have a positive eect

    o the urba microclimate.

    11ADAPTATIONADAPTInG TO ACHAnGED WORLD

    A lot has already bee said o the

    topic o sustaiability but how ca

    idividual strategies be combied toorm a big, all-ecompassig strat-

    egy? A selectio o quotes rom great

    thikers o the past ad preset - opossible cocepts ad ecessary

    chages i thikig that ca pave

    the way to a better uture.

    02NfORMATION

    THE URBAnIZATIOnAnD VIRTUALIZATIOn

    OF THE PLAnEToria Rtzer examies how people

    ommuicate with each other ad

    ow they will use iormatio i u-ure. Much is possible here rom the

    otalitaria Big Brother state to a

    lighteed society i which ior-

    matio is primarily used to improvehe quality o huma lie.

    03MONEySTROnG ECOnOMIESFOR SUSTAInABLECOMMUnITIES

    Thik global, act local this prici-

    ple applies primarily where moey

    ad markets are cocered. For lo-

    cally orgaised ecoomic orms i

    particular ca oer cities ad com-muities major advatages - both

    ecoomically ad ecologically. MarkRoselad explais how they ca be

    set up ad promoted.

    01PEOPLETHE CITY OFTHE FUTURE

    o Hirichse describes how the

    ties i a icreasigly urbaisig

    world ca be made more suitable

    or huma beigs. Dieret strat-

    gies must be developed or rich

    d poor cities, though they must

    ll be the same i oe respect: theymust brig the demads o makidto lie with the ecosystem o the

    arth.

    04MATERIALSBEYOnD WASTE

    A circular-fow ecoomy istead o aoe-way system; avoidace istead

    o thoughtless disposal. The way wedeal with resources ad raw materi-als will have to chage cosiderablyby 2050. Rachel Crackell describeshow our ecoomies ca be restruc-

    tured accordig to the cradle-to-

    cradle priciple.

    05TRAffICBACK TO THEFUTURE?

    The car moulded our lives i the 20thcetury. Do we wat to cotiue to

    be depedet o it i the 21st ce-

    tury? Jerey Keworthy aswers

    this questio with o ad describes

    possible ways to achieve a almost

    car-ree uture.

    06LANDLAnD ASA RESOURCE

    Most o the worlds cities are still

    expadig rampatly ito the sur-

    roudig area; cotrolled growth is a

    major exceptio here. How the tredcould be reversed ad deser, morecompact yet greeer cities could re-sult by 2050 is described by Aa

    Milkowski ad Kare Seto.

    07WATERA WORLDRUnnInG DRY

    More people require more water, yet

    i may places water has already be-come a scarcity, sigallig a pote-

    tial ew cofict or the uture. FredPearce describes two scearios or

    uture water use oe predicts a-archy ad evirometal destruc-

    tio, the other hopes or icreased

    eciecy ad itelliget water ma-agemet.

    08RENEWAbLEENERgIESOUR SOLAR FUTURE

    Makid could meet all its eergy

    eeds with the power o the su, but it

    is curretly ar rom doig so. Richard

    Perez examies which techologies,supply etworks ad market codi-

    tios, as well as what kid o build-

    igs, would be required to tur a solaruture ito a reality by 2050.

    09DAyLIgHTWHICH DAYLIGHTInGIn 2050

    Daylight is ree, available i abu-

    dace ad eve promotes good

    health. nevertheless, it ote ails toplay the role it should i the lightigo buildigs. I his article, Marc Fo-toyot paits scearios o how theuse o daylight i architecture will de-

    velop up to 2050.

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    7

    DThe flow o the future

    Flow will be the core concept o the uture. The

    preset versio o civilisatio is based o the use

    o depots o eergy, materials ad kowledge. I

    the civilisation to come, the essential character-

    istic will be fows.The climate crisis tells us why.

    We are moving ahead rom a world depend-

    et o oil, coal, gas ad uraium ite depots o

    eergy that we dig up rom the surace layers o

    our plaet ad the bur. We use up the limited

    depots ad covert them ito depots o waste ad

    pollutio a solutio limited i time. The result is a

    crisis o climate ad evirometal degradatio.

    Thereore, we are ow movig ito a world relyig

    o reewable eergy sources - wid, solar power,

    wave eergy, biomass. They all stem rom the co-

    stat fow o eergy that hits the surace o the

    plaet rom the star we are orbitig, the Su. The

    costat fow o sulight is so rich i eergy that

    there is more tha 5,000 times more eergy avail-

    able tha the total preset eergy cosumptio o

    all makid.

    We live i a eviromet with a icredibly

    rich fow o energy that industrialised societies

    have ot bee able to grasp. We have lacked the

    techology to reach out ad pick the light passig

    by. But ow, we are quickly tryig to develop tech-

    ology to catch the solar fow. We eed to come

    o-lie with the sushie agai.But this is ot oly about power. Movig ahead

    rom depot-depedece to the reedom o beig

    part o a fow is ot oly about reewable eergy.

    Flow is also the cetral cocept whe it comes to

    matter that we wat to recycle, ad ideas ad liks

    that we wat to share.

    For most o the industrial epoch we have

    used metals, carbohydrates and minerals o lim-

    ited availability. Depots have been emptied and

    ew, ever icreasig waste deposits have bee the

    result. This way o hadlig material stu i ot

    easible i the log ru. Istead, we have to be part

    o the fow o the livig system o Ear th.

    All livig creatures take i matter as ood ad

    give out matter as waste. But the very simple law

    o lie is that the waste o oe species has to bethe ood o aother. Plats produce oxyge as a

    by-product, waste. Aimals caot survive with-

    out ihalig this waste product, oxyge. Aimals,

    o the other side, produce carbo dioxide as waste

    thus providig ood or plats. What is waste to

    oe is ood to aother. We must all share our shit

    to keep the rest alive.

    This matter fow covertig ood ito waste

    ito ood ito waste goes o ad o. It results i

    o waste build-up at all ad o resource shortage

    either. That is the ature o fows everythig is

    i costat motio. Chage is the elusive yet co-

    stat eature o that reality.

    All we eed is the light rom the Su. The mat-

    ter fow o Earth ca ru ad ru, o ad o orever,

    as log as it gets the eergy rom daylight.

    The fow o daylight is a ubiquitous and sot

    git, all that we o this plaet eed rom the cos-

    mos outside to stay active ad happily alive.

    The task ahead is to build a civilisatio based

    o that simple act. Forget depots o oil, gas, coal

    and uranium. Forget depots o metals, carbohy-

    drates ad mierals. Reuse. Recycle. Go with the

    fow. Be sot ad getle. Just add daylight.

    Tor Nrretranders is a idepedet author, thiker ad

    commetator based i Copehage, Demark. Origially

    graduatig as a M.Sc. i evirometal plaig ad the

    sociology o sciece, Tor nrretraders is ow adjuct pro-

    essor in the philosophy o science at Copenhagen Busi-

    ess School. He received the o-ctio prize o the Daish

    Writers Uio i 1985 ad the publicist p rize o the Da-

    ish Publicist Club i 1988.

    DISCOURSEBYTOr NrrETraNDErS

    D&A AUTUMn 2009 ISSUE 12

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    11

    06

    11

    01

    01 people

    Why?By th idd th ctry thr

    wi b vr i bii iv-

    ig th arth r tha tw

    thirds th wi b i citis. Th

    citis Arica ad Asia a wi

    hav ast r bii ihabit-

    ats by 2050. Haity dads

    that thy ar ab t srviv i dig-

    ity, with adqat ivig sac

    ad basic dica ad scia

    car. Ad r w wi t srviv

    dads that ati grwth

    shd b hadd as city as

    ssib i trs rsrcs.

    What?Th rscts r th wrds a-

    t ad r citis dir da-

    tay. Hr w hav th visi

    th c-city, aagig its

    tray i trs rsrcs by

    2050, with a its ihabitats hav-

    ig gh ivig sac, hathy

    ivig cditis ad cic s-

    cicy. Ad th w hav S-

    dg City, a sthr gais,

    with 15 ii ivig i

    ss i that city a. Thy hav

    adqat ic ad ca

    drikig watr r basic hath car

    ithr.

    hoW?Tw scaris tw stratgis

    r brigig abt th rst ad

    rvtig th scd. I a-

    t cits, ivig ad wrkig i th

    sa qartr hac th qaity

    i ad rdc rgy rqir-

    ts. I th rr citis, basic

    rvisi is ctra: drikig watr

    ad ctricity r a, a vstd

    right r ad s, ca gar-

    ds r d sis.

    Hath is arat t qaity

    ivig i a citis bth wathy

    ad r. I bth stratgis, thr-

    r, hathir bidigs that ak

    s dayight ad rsh air wi b

    a abst cssity.

    peoplethe City ofthe future:tWo Visions

    i 2050, m bll ppl wll b e, wc m w d wll lv b . W wll m g,

    cl c, dc d clgclp c? t w q wll lgl dpd dc bk mmd .

    By D Hirichs

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    2 1301 people

    2010

    90%

    89%

    84%

    67%

    62%

    D&A AuTumn 2009 ISSu e 12

    slts by 2050 ar sbrig: Bijig

    ad Tiaji ar w cti-s rba z ad s t is th gi-

    gatic rba ara Ri d Jair

    ad S pa, Brazi. I th uitd

    Stats, th east Cast urba Cr-

    ridr w xtds r Bst t

    nw Yrk ad philadlhia, with

    bit- aras rig sth t Ba-

    timr ad Washigt D.C, ctai-

    ig ard 70 ii .

    What will th wrlds rba aras

    k ik i 2050? Tw scaris ar

    rstd hr: a tr rct,

    with citis, at ast i th dvd

    wrd, ad r . Ths cit-

    is th tr will csrv rgy

    ad s rwab srcs t gr-

    at hat ad lctricity. Thy will ti-lis rsrcs citly ad rvid

    sac r rba gardig ad largr

    cctd arks ad gr aras.

    Thy wi iiis ach rss c-

    lgical ad carb trits ad

    r ardabl hsig ad ix-siv bic trasrtati.

    Th thr scari is bsissas sa. Hr w k at th tr

    rba aras r th dvig

    wrld rsctiv, with srawlig

    sls crisd illis dis-

    ssssd ad dismwrd rba

    dwllrs livig th dg srvival,

    ad city gvrts virtay a-

    bl t c with th irastrctr

    ad rsrc ds raway -

    latis. It is a acalytic visi a wrd g hrriby wrg, whr

    i is a, brtish ad shrt.

    ecocity 2050:people centredUrban living

    This scari cjrs s-

    sibl rba tr rdicatd

    gvrts akig irtat,stratgic dcisis btw w ad

    2020. This is r widw rt-

    ity t sct a rba dvt

    ath basd th wig trds:

    _

    rba latis will cti txad i th dvld wrld, bt

    wi stabiiz ad v dr (i s

    ctris) by id-ctry

    _

    th ds rba latis will

    cssitat th d r icial

    gvrts t dvl a l-

    ctrd arach t rba dvl-

    t, ivlvig lad grwth

    that icrrats th s rw-

    abl rgy srcs, -lltig

    vhicls, gr sac ad cc-

    trs, lw-cst city ctr hsig,

    bttr bic trasrt systs ad

    thr sstial srvics that hac

    th qality li whil dcrasigha trits th ats -

    it rsrc bas

    _

    scitis i er will b lti-

    thic ad lti-cltral, as ii-

    grats r Asia, middl east adth rmr Svit ui rvid c-

    ssary skills, sttig t s x-

    tt dcliig lati bass ist er

    _

    citis wi b yctric, t -

    ctric, as a rslt th rvival

    ir citis as vibrat citisad acs t wrk.

    Th yar is 2050. Th lac: s-

    whr i Wstr er. ecCity

    2050 cld, i act, tr t t b

    ay br rba aras ma,

    Swd; Chag, Dark;

    Astrda, th nthrads; Bri,Gray; Barcla, Sai; r Ath-s, Grc, t a a w. A ths

    citis hav alrady ivstd i rc-

    dt-sttig altrativs: r -

    cit blic trasrt (icldig

    hydrg r lctric-wrd bss),

    astr drgrd rail systs, a-

    rdab bic hsig, r gr

    aras ad rba gards, rt

    slar watr hatrs ad a hst thr -ctrd ivatis.

    Cliat chag has ad e-

    rs wathr warr i th s-

    r, bt sttd. Svr wathr

    vts ar r c ad ris-

    ig sa lvls hav rtd s

    castal citis t rct barrirs thd back str ad tida srgs.

    ecCity 2050 has stabilisd its

    lati at btw 4 ad 5 il-li. ovr th ast 40 yars, rba

    aras i er hav stabilisd r

    v lst lati, as rtility

    lvls drd t blw rlac-t v (ss tha 2.1 chidr r

    wa avrag).

    Faily laig ad rrdc-tiv hath srvics, w ivrsay

    availabl i er, hav ctribtd

    t this trd. Fwr itdd rg-acis, scially ag yg

    , hav had a bcia kck-

    ct rdcig icia bdg-

    ts r dcati, halth ad thrsstia srvics.

    A shrikig ati bas has

    rvd t b bth a rbl ad

    a rtity: a rbl i that

    th br sirs has w

    rachd wards 20 r ct

    th lati; a rtity b-cas icial gvrts hav

    b giv brathig sac, ti t

    Th tr siz th ha -

    lati this bsigd lat, ad

    hc th stat ad qality its

    brgig rba aras, will b d-trid argy by dcisis ad

    r std, rtitis sizd r

    sqadrd, vr th crs th

    cmig tw dcads. W ar alrady

    crtd with rcdtdrba grwth as l xds rral

    aras i icrasig brs ad as

    immigrats ad rgs fck t cit-

    is ad tws i sarch rti-tis ad bttr ivihds.

    By Jly 2009, th glbal -

    ati rachd 6.8 bii, with s

    78 ii addd vry yar. I 2008,

    r th rst ti i ha histry,hal th wrlds lati rsidd i

    rba aras a rctag that wi

    accrat t th idd this c-

    try. W ar, ad will b i th tr,

    a rdiaty rba scis.

    By th idd this tts

    ctry, th glbal lati willlvl t jst vr 9.1 billi (as-

    sig th uns di-tr r-jctis ar br t). By th, th

    wrlds rba lati will rach6.4 bii, qivat t th wrds

    tir lati i 2005! o this vast

    br, th vrwhig ajrity

    s 5.33 billi will b scratch-ig t a ivig i th srawig citis

    th dvig wrd. oy a itt

    vr billi l will rsid i

    dvd ctry citis.

    Withi r dcads, Aricas

    rba ati wi b vr 1.2 bi-

    i, whi Asias tig citis wi

    hd cs t 3.5 bii. By ctrast,

    ers citis wi hav 557 ii

    rsidts ad nrth Aricas jstvr 400 ii.

    Th rrti l rsidig

    i rba aras i 2050 wi b stag-

    grig: 62 r ct Aricas -

    ati wi b rba, 67 r ct

    Asias, 84 r ct ers, 89r ct lati Aricas ad 90

    r ct nrth Aricas.

    Th br ga-citis with

    vr 10 ii ihabitats wi grw

    r 19 i 2007 t 30 by 2030 ad

    vr 50 by 2050. Hal ths cit-is wi b catd i Asia, ad A sia

    citis ar rjctd t ctai r

    tha 50 r ct th wrlds -tir ati by 2050. By th id-

    dl this ctry, Tky raisth wrds argst rba aggr-

    ati with cs t 40 ii

    (th Tky-Ykhaa rgi is c-

    ty rbaisd).

    As rba latis sar, largr

    citis srawl acrss th ri-rbaadsca, dvrig ark ad agri-

    cltral lad i th rcss. Th r-

    U u 2050

    noRTH AmeRICA

    lATIn AmeRICA

    euRope

    ASIA

    AFRICA

    urba ati

    Rra ati

    W u 2010 2050:

    2050 h u

    w f ju 9.1

    . b h, h w

    u w h

    .4 , qu h

    w u

    005!

    2050

    urba ati

    Rra ati

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    4 1501 people

    ru xu u u x-

    u. e u-

    ,

    h u h u

    h u j

    . o h h h,

    u u h

    wh u u h

    u h u-

    . a

    h ,

    hw

    .

    rsidts t travrs th city w-

    ig gr crridrs that cct

    ighbrhd t athr (a cct

    brrwd r Sigar).

    Th advt ric stabilisd, a-

    rdabl blic hsig, has at

    that st l ca liv clsr t

    whr thy wrk. Fllwig th wrld-

    wid cic criss 20082011,

    gvrt-backd lw itrstlas ad it ssibl r ay idi-

    vidas ad aiis t by thir aart-

    ts r cds at rasab rics.

    nw high sd Itrt cctis

    with Sky allw mr l t wrk

    r h r r days a wk,

    rdcig ctr cgsti.

    ecCitys w high ris aart-

    t blcks, with rt gards,

    dttd with slar als, ctai

    ctral atris srtig lats

    ad sall trs. Thy ar bth c-

    ridly ad l-ctrd livig

    cmmitis. Ths cmlxs hav

    rlacd dilaidatd, sb-stadardhsig bcks, rvivig rba c-

    itis ad akig it ssibl r

    l t liv i vibrat, activ igh-brhds. Th city has bcm ly-

    ctric rathr tha -ctric.

    nighbrhd cmmitts hav

    b st , awig citizs t c-

    mt ad dbat w zig mas-

    rs ad rba dvlt las.This has awd tr dvt

    t b l-ridly, lad rth btt- t th t-dw.

    HoW to maketHis Happen:

    I th city th tr i er is t

    b -ctrd ad c-ridy

    with lad, sstaiabl grwth,bth satia ad cic, th th

    dcisis t brig abt this visihav t b ad btw w ad

    2020. Th cig dcad is th Dc-

    ad Dcisis.

    Citis lik Sigar, Kb,

    Jaa, Chag, Dark ad

    thrs alrady hav a advacdaig rcss i ac that ds

    th wig:

    _

    crbs rba srawl by cctratig

    akig city ctrs r c-tia ad -ridy

    _

    aks it ssibl r l t liv

    clsr t whr thy wrk, cttig

    dw ctig cgsti

    _

    bilds cit blic trasrta-

    ti twrks, cmbiig cmmtrtrais, bss ad drgrd

    aws r r gr sac, icd-

    ig arks, gr cctrs jiig

    tgthr dirt ighbrhds,ad rba gards

    _

    itrdcs ictivs r rsidts

    t w ad rat vhicls w-

    rd by lctric mtrs r altrativ

    s sch as bigas ad hydrg

    _

    rs tax ictivs r trightsbsidis r w c ad hsig

    dvlmts that icrrat ri-cis w rgy s, gr aras

    ad is brs, ad cbi -

    cs ad rsidcs i th sa

    cx, ag thr ivatis

    _

    stabishs ways ad as r rsi-

    dts t ract t ad ct -

    tr dvt as ad rjcts

    W hav th xrtis ad ts t

    mak this tr a rality, bt it taks

    wiwr, citt ad th rc-giti that laig mst g had-i-had with s ds.

    slUmdog city 2050:apocalypsetomorroW

    This scari is rdicatd ambr crrt trds that, lss

    rvrsd r st, will brig abtthis ightar visi a rba -

    tr. Th trds ctaid i this sc-

    ari ca b sarisd as ws:

    _

    st tr lati grwth willtak ac i dvig wrd citis

    _

    th grwth rats ar t ast, i

    ay cass, r vrwhld -

    icial gvrts t c with

    th acclratig ds fds

    w rsidts

    _

    lack ratial laig cha-

    iss rslts i bridld dvl-

    t, rba srawl, risig lvls

    llti (bth air ad watr), th

    rlirati sls ad sqattrsttlts, ad th rsi s-cia srvics

    _

    vrcrwdig ad ack jb r-

    titis crats a larg drclass

    dcatd, r l with w

    skills ad wr rtitis tar a ivig; this givs ris t sar-

    ig cri rats, rigis xtris

    ad ds gba trrris

    _

    saddld with r l ad a

    shrikig tax bas, th ir citis

    ivst i cit bic trasrta-

    ti, rvivd city ctrs with r

    gr sac, ad rwab rgy

    srcs, ag thr thigs.

    Faig atis i st e-

    r hav b st by icrasd

    iigrati r -eu ctris

    i th rr Svit ui, th mid-

    dl east ad Asia. A it syst,smwhat lik Caadas, has allwd

    th eu t tak i th bst ad thbrightst iigrats with kw-

    dg, skills ad, i sm ca ss, ivst-

    t caita. Th argr citis ar a

    ti-thic ad ti-ctra.

    may ths iigrats stt

    i scdary citis, as w as i th

    argr citis (as kw as riat

    citis). mst era ctris

    lgr hav ral lati dis-

    tribti licis i lac, as wr

    births hav rlivd rssr

    rba aras. By 2007 th trd was

    car: y 39 r ct dvd

    ctris had licis t ifclati distribti, cmard t

    75 r ct dvig ctris.

    mst th l wh liv i

    ecCity 2050 liv i fats, rathr

    tha idividal hss. Bt vryaartt bidig ad hs is c-

    ctd t a cit c-gra-

    ti at that rvids bth district

    hatig ad ctricity. Ths ats

    sig advacd fidisd bd tch-

    gy, br a varity s, icdig

    dmstic wasts, bi-ls, ad cla

    cal. Additial ak lctricity is r-

    vidd by slar clls ad wid ars,sitatd i ri-rba aras.

    All rba vhicls ar ithr

    lctric r hydrg wrd. Hy-brids hav b dvd that r

    bth. Air llti r vhicl

    xhasts ad actris hav b

    brght dw t gligibl lvls,

    whil r gr sac ad arks

    hav richd air qality ad r-

    vidd th city with atra air cdi-

    tiig drig th httr srs.

    Bicycl aths ar clac

    all strts, whil walkig aths allw

    bcm virtally maagabl, with

    grwig scia ad cic divids

    _

    scia iqaitis ad ack r-

    titis r w rslt i r

    arly arriags vry yg girls

    agd 1015 arrid t ldr

    , ctribtig t highr grwth

    rats, as w as sx trackig ad

    brid aig.

    Slmdg City 2050 is i Asia, th c-

    tit hdig th dbis rcrd r

    th largst latis, th largst

    cctrati rba dwrs ad

    th largst br ga-citis

    (with vr 10 ii ihabitats).

    Sldg City is a castal ga-city, with cls t 30 milli l. It

    has b grwig by arly 3 r ct

    r yar sic 2010, gh t dbl

    its ati rghy vry gra-

    ti. Th idigs city lati

    has b vrwhlmd with migrats

    rm th ctrysid, skig a bttrli, as rral, agricltral cis

    hav cllasd; th rslt glbalisa-

    ti ad lack rral ivstmt.

    This rcdtd grwth has

    aralysd th micial gvrmt.

    Srvics cat k with th s-

    cia, hath ad irastrctr ds

    gratd by th arrival 1,000wcrs vry day.

    o hal t tw thirds Sl-dg citys rsidt iv i ss ad

    sqattr sttlts, atigt wards 1520 ii .

    Th ss csist sty w-ris,

    dilaidatd aartt dwlligs

    cvrd with gri ad idw, with

    cal tas ad tilts. o -tir aiy six ivs i ach r;

    cy fats ar shard by thr

    aiis. each watr ta srvs 200

    l ad th tilts ar thigr tha atris ccrt sabs

    with hls i th middl. Th watr is

    r tratd srac watrs ad

    ds t b bid r 30 its b-

    r it ca b sd r ckig; ta-

    bl drikig watr is rchasd rm

    vdrs wh charg -rth

    th avrag sl dwllrs wkly

    ic r it. Th tilts ar s -saitary that ay rr t

    dcat i arks ad ag th rivr,

    ctribtig t llti lvls addisas brds.

    Th sqattr sttlts arv wrs. prchd rciitsly

    cis, stab ad, i swas r

    fd ais, ths s-ashid

    hs ad r wast wd, ca-

    vas ad ti hs aiy ach i

    a rm with a dirt fr ad accss

    t tabl watr r saitati acil-

    itis. Ckig is d tsid sig

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    6 1701 people

    2050

    2010

    D&A AuTumn 2009 ISSu e 12

    HoW to avoid tHis:

    This acalytic tr ca b

    avidd, i atial, stat ad city

    gvrts d th llwig thad it :

    _

    itrdc licis that crag

    r v lati distribtiamg scdary citis; takig rs-

    sr arg riat citis

    _

    t i ac icis ad ractics t

    allw sqattr sttlmts t w r

    at ast ctr th ad thy sqat

    ; wrig lcal citist irv thir ts, gtiat r

    id watr ad bild bttr, sai-

    tary latris, attract ivstts

    ad rvid r dd scial srv-ics

    _

    irv s cditis by w-

    rig ighbrhds t dvl

    bttr ardabl hsig, attractivstts, ad acat ds r

    bttr srvics icdig hath car

    ad dcati

    _

    itrdc atia hath israc

    schs r th r

    _

    a r ad acat ad r rba

    gardig, which ca rvid th

    r with a src triti adic

    _

    irv bic trasrt, sciay

    by switchig t lctric bss ad

    trais

    _

    xtd th lctricity grid t -srvicd sctis th city

    _

    iiat th d t br biass,

    wasts, wd ad thr atrialsr ckig by rvidig r igh-

    brhds with ra brrs,

    ad slar r lctric ckrs, r thr

    ss tig atrativs

    _

    crag aiis t dcat thir

    daghtrs, as w as thir bys

    _

    allw nGos, whr ssibl, t ab-srb s th ctis ray

    rvidd by icia gvrts

    _

    lcal, ighbrhd halth car,sciay atra ad chid hath,

    virta aagt, wast

    cllcti, ad rvisi thrsrvics (.g. scia ad ga)

    _

    st Gra Bak ty acia

    istittis with th xrss r-s akig icr-as t r

    aiis, sciay w.

    whatvr cbstibl atrial is

    vailabl. pllti r ckigrs, arby idstris ad vhics

    ass sris air llti, with high

    vls havy tals, articlats,

    d shr ad itrg dixids.

    D t air ad watr llti,

    siratry ictis ar c,

    lg with gastr-itstial dis-

    ass ad arasits. pllti-i-

    cd illsss rdc th tim slm

    d sqattr rsidts ca dvt

    rdctiv wrk. mst th

    ar y i th brw r black

    cy, sig whatvr thy ca

    rcr r ira twrks: a-

    thig r vgtabls ad rits, cis, ckig i, d arts,

    d bicyc chais.

    uabl t ard t ay schls, mst r amilis dcat ly

    r at st tw thir chidr,

    sally th bys. Th girls ar sld

    as ary as ssib t ch dr

    r addd ic, as virtalshld slavs, whil thrs d

    i th sx idstry. This ctrib-

    ts t r births as dcatdirs, arrid at th tdr ags

    1015, td t giv birth ary.

    With dical car t rach

    r st rsidts ad dcati -

    rdab r st thir chidr,

    rstiv, mlyabl drclass is

    ig br. Fd a cstat dit

    stic ad strt vic, ths

    hildr th drclass bcckss, vit adts. Cri rats

    r high ad vilt crim is cmm.

    idaig th childr th rich

    d r iddl classs ad hld-g thm r rasm is w a grwth

    dstry.

    Th vic th ir city has

    riv may th wll it distat

    brbs gatd, s-ctaid c-

    itis atrlld by ard rivat

    crity gards. This has at

    r agrictra ad. With bit-

    ras xtdig rthr tsid th

    ty ctr, th srawl has ctrib-

    td t gratr hat islad cts

    th ht, dry sas, with tr-

    trs t 10 dgrs httr tha

    h ctrysid, which ctis tcd as th city gbbls r

    d r th srrdig ad.

    Assaltd by cliat chag,with chkig air ti ad a sr-

    ac watrs t v r idstria

    s, Slmdg City bcms a rma-t virmtal ad halth disas-

    r r mst rsidts. It has bcm

    brdig grd r cri ad ri-

    is xtris, a hav r trrr-

    sts ad basically a livig hll r vr

    al th citys rsidts. Yt stillhy c!

    cities over 10 million

    inHabitants

    tHe ten most

    popUlated

    cities ordered

    by density

    Delhi

    mu

    bai

    Seoul

    mosco

    w

    Beijin

    g

    Sop

    aulo

    Shan

    ghai

    Istanbu

    l

    mexico

    City

    Karachi

    don Hinrichsen is a award wiig writr ad un csltat, ad has wrkd

    i vr 100 ctris, icldig 60 i th dvlig wrld. H has writt

    v bks, mstly virmt ad dvlmt isss. H is crrtly thSir Dvt maagr r th Istitt r War ad pac Rrtig,

    basd i ld, uK.

    Asia

    Rst th wrd

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    02 INFORMATION 19

    02

    Why?Even in 2050, people will still com-

    mnicate with each other ace to

    ace. Nevertheless we are expe-

    riencing an nprecedented pen-

    etration o all spheres o lie by

    intelligent data processing sys-

    tems. At the same time, the poorer

    cities in particlar are growing

    ever more rapidly. Social pressre

    and ths the need or data secrity

    as well are increasing. Bt sec-

    rity always has another aspect: it

    means srveillance and control

    to the point o incapacitation.

    What?Reasonably priced chips and new

    radio networks, and the increas-

    ing miniatrisation o electronic

    components in the orm o Smart

    Dst, mean that data is being col-

    lected, everywhere and all the time.

    It is increasingly sed as a basis

    or social action whether in the

    liberal knowledge society or in

    a totalitarian srveillance state.

    It is possible to imagine a tre

    in which each individal can be

    located constantly and everything

    he or she does can be revealed at

    any time. Only the very poor will be

    able to avoid this scenario they

    live in the Black Holes o the dig-

    ital world and the very rich.

    hoW?One basic reqirement or pre-

    venting a world like Orwells 1984

    is social balance. This alone can

    redce social tensions and ths the

    need or secrity and control. Added

    to this shold be improved edca-

    tion or all strata o the poplation.

    Only responsible adlt citizens can

    deend themselves against control,

    censorship and being patronised.

    On the other hand, i sed in the right

    way inormation can help to make

    peoples living environment more

    pleasant, healthy and environment-

    riendly. In active hoses, daylighting,

    ventilation, energy spply and other

    actors o the interior environment

    are co-ordinated by intelligent con-

    trol systems to improve comort and

    lower energy se.

    inormationthe urbanizationand virtualizationo the planet

    r sc cs s w g m w.i , sms ccs w

    csg w s sg. is mkcmg g wk s-gsmfg w-mcg kwg g w sc mcsms?

    By Florian Rtzer

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    0 2102 INFORMATIOND&A AuTuMN 2009 ISSu E 12

    gardless o whether they are in one

    place or moving arond in the con-

    try or in town, in a public space, in

    vehicles, bildings or private spaces.

    The virtal metropolis is growing at

    an alarming rate. In 2002, one billion

    people had mobile phones by 2009

    it was already 2.6 billion, ar exceed-

    ing the nmber o internet sers. In

    the year 2000, there were 300 mil-

    lion internet sers; the billion thresh-

    old was reached in 2005, and now

    over 1.5 billion people spend larger

    or smaller amounts o time in the

    virtual world, proessionally and

    privately, at home or while moving

    around. All users o mobile phoneswith internet access and other port-

    able devices are citizens o the vir-

    tual metropolis as well, and at thesame time they can be ollowed step

    by step, while at the same time geo-

    location means that they are not

    just guided through space on the

    rn, bt can receive and distribteall kinds o inormation rom theirsrrondings, on a large nmber o

    channels. This means that they ac-tally occpy two worlds that have

    to be coordinated in many ways,

    and by no means not just techni-

    cally. These worlds oten conict

    with each other and inuence andchange each other.

    Over hal the worlds poplation

    already lives in cities. This means

    that cities have become our domi-

    nant environment or ate , with all

    their extensions into the transport,

    inormation and communication

    links that extend the rban network

    all over the globe. The planet and h-

    manity are being urbanised, whichmeans that the utopia that has per-

    sisted since cities were invented

    10,000 years ago has passed its

    peak. Certainly the structure o

    the city has changed considerably

    since the start o industrialisation,which acted as a space-condensing

    machine. Today the strctres that

    are perceived as cities in the tradi-tional sense are nothing more than

    larger or smaller cores in an urban

    landscape that can sometimes ex-tend or hundreds o kilometres.

    These oten contain several tightly

    linked, spatially condensed zones o

    development, inrastructure such

    as roads, motorways, stations, air-ports, harbors, power stations and

    indstrial estates with parks and lei-

    sre areas, smaller hosing estates,

    neglected zones and areas sed or

    agricltre and in the megacities

    o the Third World extensive slms

    that will grow more in the next ew

    decades.

    rbanisation has already come to an

    nd in most indstrialised contries.

    A saturation point was reached be-

    ause 7080 per cent o people al-eady live in cities. Cities are scarcely

    rowing any more, and some have al-

    eady started to shrink becase the

    oplation is decreasing as a reslt

    limited immigration, the increase

    n single hoseholds and lower ertil-

    ty rates; and people are no longer mi-

    rating rom the contry to the city,

    ut rom declining cities to those

    hat are thrusting orwards eco-

    omically. This is quite dierent in

    he Third World. Here cities and meg-

    cities will continue to grow at im-mense speed in the next ew dec ades,

    nd will reach vast dimensions. The

    xplosive rbanisation o the global

    oplation has long been ot o con-

    rol, regardless o political will and

    ack o opportnities.

    Bt this cold change very soon,

    s space, objects and people are rap-dly being networked at every turn,

    nd this process will be boostedgain by the large-scale introdction

    RFID and GPS chips, wide-rang-ng radio networks and the version

    internet protocol (IPv6), because

    hen absoltely everything can be in-

    erlinked as 340 sextillion possiblenternet addresses will be available.

    At the same time, items rom sen-ors and actators right down to ro-

    ots will have shrnk to nano-sizes;

    hey will orm mobile Smart Dust

    etworks and also move into peo-

    les bodies and brains. Digital net-

    working will enold urban space inarticlar, bt the planet as a whole

    with signifcant and highly ambiv-lent conseqences orming a data

    pace that interacts with the planet

    ut at a planetary level) making it

    nto a kind o super-organism. It is

    ossible to call this extended reality,

    r conversely a virtality released to

    ow into reality. We have still to ace

    he real inormation revoltion.

    Virtual space isgrowing out ourban space andenVeloping it

    ne aspect is increasing interlinking,

    which is creating a virtal space, or

    more accurately: the new virtual

    world metropolis, which is urban-

    sing the entire planet and makingvery ser o the internet and mobile

    hone networks (which are starting

    o merge) one o their citizens, re-

    gigantic dataVolumes as a basisor social action

    I the urban population continues

    to increase at the present annual

    rate o 1.8 per cent, it will have do-

    bled within 35 years. And here the

    ocus o urban concentration willshit to the Third World, which has

    hitherto had a predominantly rural

    population. In the year 2000, justnder two billion people lived in cit-

    ies there, bt by 2030 the gre is

    predicted to have reached our bil-

    lion. 5 million people migrate intocities in the developing world every

    month. And it is crrently estimated

    that a third o the rban poplation

    o the Third World lives in slms. It

    is qite possible that hal the global

    rban poplation will soon be living

    either in gigantic slms or in irreg-

    lar urban residential zones locatedin richer urban areas or city cen-

    tres like satellites or plug-ins, even

    though they represent Black Holespolitically, economically and in terms

    o secrity strategy. Even in 15 years,

    the poplation o Kinshasa, say, will

    have risen rom its crrent 8 million

    to 17 million, or that o Lagos rom

    its present 10 to 16 million.

    Migrations o this kind, which are

    happening mch more qickly than

    they did in Erope and North Amer-

    ica during the ultra-rapid urbanisa-

    tion broght abot by the indstrial

    revoltion, are perhaps most clearly

    observed in China. By 2025 alone, it

    is assmed that 350 to 400 million

    additional people more than thecrrent poplation o the uSA will

    be living in cities, which means the

    rban poplation cold have dobled

    to a billion by 2030 in 22 years. Eve-

    rything abot this trend is gigantic

    the migrations rom the country-

    side to the towns, the resultant re-strctring o town and contry, the

    bilding measres, the sbrbanisa-

    tion and sealing o land that cold be

    used or agricultural purposes, en-

    ergy and water spply problems, pol-ltion, the increased risk cased by

    natural disasters, the development

    o transport inrastructure with

    roads, dozens o new airports or alarge nmber o new means o mass

    transport. Despite the current eco-nomic crisis, China is likely to remain

    the worlds largest building site

    most recently the urban regions

    were growing by two billion sqare

    metres annally.

    Scarcely controllable growth

    is urther exacerbated by security

    t v

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    y .

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    problems. Conict has increasingly

    been thrst into cities or a long time

    now, where asymmetrical wars are

    waged. The ailed states that are

    sinking into chaos are being joined

    by more and more weak or wild

    states, which are alling completely

    or, at best, partly out o state con-

    trol. This turns cities into primarilymilitary operating spaces devoted to

    secrity strategy that have to be sb-

    jected to srveillance and cleansing,

    where law and order have to be re-

    stored through conict and stabili-

    sation measres, as has clearly been

    happening recently in Iraq and A-

    ghanistan.

    But under the heading o cy-ber-terrorism, cyber-criminality and

    protection o the networked inra-structure virtual space that is an-

    chored in rban reality, orming the

    global or planetary metropolis, has

    increasingly to be protected. Here

    cyberspace has an important part toplay. Not only does it enable compre-

    hensive control o rban space in real

    time, italso has a bridging nction,

    as the trend towards gated com-

    munities is becoming stronger in

    the developing contries and the in-

    dstrialised world, as a reslt o the

    poor and (sper-)rich driting apart

    and the middle class crmbling. The

    secre national rban islands, linked

    world-wide and separated by walls,

    ences, electronic surveillance de-vices and biometric recognition tech-

    nologies, secrity sta and soon by

    robots are also interlinked by inor-

    mation and communications tech-nology, as well as by connections to

    motorways, stations and harbours.These, in turn, should repel attacks

    and intruders with frewalls andother secrity devices, and ths also

    represent gated commnities.

    Greater Shenzhen has over 12

    million inhabitants. Here a kind o

    urban panopticon is to be set up,

    oering a wide variety o surveil-

    lance technologies. At the heart othe system are tens o thosands o

    srveillance cameras, some already

    capable o ace and behaviour rec-ognition and the possibility o oper-

    ating over 360 degrees. In addition,

    there is a broadband network pow-

    erul enough to carry the massive

    quantities o data generated. It ishoped that this will not only make it

    possible to recognise people in pblic

    places bt also to identiy sspicios

    behaviour, or example, or preven-

    tive purposes. This will make Shen-zhen the best monitored city in the

    world by 2010, with 2 million cam-

    eras. But the aim o the national

    sae cities programme is to bild p

    a national database, making it pos-sible to coordinate and compare im-

    ages rom the srveillance cameras

    and data rom other sorces sch as

    the monitored internet and mobile

    phone system, and also rom the se

    o credit and other chip cards.

    collecting,coordinating,eValuating andcontrolling

    Similar projects or collecting datarom the largest possible nmber o

    sorces and accessing them by data

    mining are being prsed all over the

    world, and o course also provide a

    basis or military strategy (C4ISR

    Command, Control, Communica-

    tions, Computers, Intelligence, Sur-veillance and Reconnaissance). IBM

    has jst developed sotware or its

    A Smart Planet project, intended to

    collect these enormous masses o

    data and analyse them in real time.

    This is all about surveillance and

    recognition in the broader sense, in

    other words about streams o tra-c and people who can be ollowed

    by means o GPS and mobile phone

    localisation systems, abot weather

    data, nancial transactions, energy

    loads, images rom all kinds o sen-

    sors, technology installed to make it

    possible to see throgh internal and

    external walls, or abot medical and

    physiological data rom a wide vari-

    ety o sorces, distribted regionally

    and globally. But this also makes itpossible to monitor swarms o crea-

    tres, particles, micro-organisms or

    indications o biological, chemical or

    nclear weapons in air and water.

    New data will be generated allthe time in every case, collected, co-

    ordinated and evalated on the basis

    o certain criteria in order to recog-

    nise trends and risks or to optimise

    processes on local, regional, national

    or global levels, acilitating an imme-

    diate response. The dimensions o a

    data-space that is created, explored

    and analysed so dynamically will be

    gigantic. Even now, American scien-

    tists are collecting and evaluating

    mobile phone location data and socollecting and evalating the move-

    ments o over 100,000 people over

    six months, prodcing a mobile n-

    gerprint or each individal in a way

    that is not entirely acceptable in legal

    terms. The world is becoming trans-

    parent, a panopticon. In principle,

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    this would make it possible to con-

    trol the development o cities, min-

    imise energy consumption, quickly

    track down possible environmen-tal polltion or identiy risky places,

    buildings and people, or explore in-

    teresting global marketing opport-

    nities. Individals cold also optimise

    their activities by interacting with

    the data streams, which could in-clde their physiological data, sch

    as blood pressre, plse, EEG, rine

    analysis and body temperature. At

    the same time, techniques are al-

    ready being developed or atomat-

    ically recognising peoples behavior

    and intentions rom their gait, ges-tres or acial expressions, bt also

    rom physiological data that can be

    read remotely, which cold serve to

    prevent crime and also help neuro-marketing.

    Bt even i state or private opti-

    misations or monitoring and control-

    ling in real time cold be coordinatedwith the behaviour o people, such

    optimisation and regulation wouldndermine the tightly welded bases

    o reedom, anonymity and privacy.

    Geoscientists Jerome E. Dobson and

    Peter Fisher talk o the beginning o

    a orm o geo-slavery, simply on

    the basis o location technology orHman Tracking.

    the digital diVide

    But the global super-organism so

    ervently longed or by many peo-ple will not jst have a large nmber

    o black holes, particlarly in places

    dominated by poverty. Rich inor-mation societies will increasingly be

    concerned to seal o data-spaces

    (that overlap with real geographi-

    cal and architectural spaces) rom

    political or commercial competi-

    tors and to clariy who has access

    to what which data and who is to

    be spared the digital panopticon,nder what conditions and how this

    will be realised technically. This will

    have become reality when all vehi-cles, equipment, goods and individ-

    als can be tracked and located on a

    permanent basis via GPS transmit-ters, RFID chips, IP nmbers etc, bt

    also via intelligent streets, bildings

    and inrastrctres.

    In the year 2050, the digital aris-

    tocracy will be distingished by their

    ability to determine or themselves

    when, where and nder what circm-

    stances they are on- or o-line in the

    middle o the archipelago o rich, pro-

    tected islands o afence. Bt they

    will also have to reckon with digital

    criminals and rebels or state and pri-

    vate secrity orces, who will want

    to penetrate the gated spaces and

    maniplate them with as ew obsta-

    cles as possible in the way.

    The trends described here orig-

    inate mainly in the slmming down

    o Third World cities, increasing pov-

    erty and the act that rich and poor

    are driting apart, even in rich con-

    tries. Presumably such trends will

    be urther reinorced by the fnan-

    cial crisis and the debt mountains

    that are piling p to cope with it. Glo-

    bal warming will also contribte to

    sealing rich contries and rich elites

    o even more i it results in waveso migration or natral disasters, n-

    less something is done in advance to

    prevent this. The only eective de-

    ence strategy would be state and

    economic reorms, above all redis-

    tribting edcation and knowledge

    in order to bridge the gl betweenrich and poor. Rather than seekingto tame the democratising power o

    the internet with srveillance, inter-

    net bans and undue regulation, so-cieties cold invest in removing the

    digital gl that still exists between

    dierent population groups. This

    wold be a way o creating the trans-

    parency and pblic qality that are

    so sorely needed in terms o (global)

    politics, as well as providing open ac-

    cess to knowledge.

    floian rtze, born in 1953, stud-

    ied philosophy then worked as a

    ree-lance author and journalistspecialising in media theory and

    media aesthetics. In 1996 he was

    a co-ounder o the online maga-

    zine Telepolis (www.telepolis.de)and has been its editor-in-chie ever

    since. He has published books in-

    cluding Digitale Weltentwrfe (Mu-

    nich 1998); Megamaschine Wissen

    (Frankrt am Main/New York 1999),

    Renaissance der Utopie (Ed, with R.

    Maresch; Frankrt am Main 2004)

    and Vom Wildwerden der Stdte(Basel 2006).

    b b y

    g o v

    1984

    y

    y. t

    v

    y b: t

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    v

    y. t v

    l y

    300 y.1

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    6 D&A Autumn 2009 Issue 12

    03

    2703 money

    Te eet ss st pts te wd s e sw te sts te sed e sste. T ke tes

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    8 D&A Autumn 2009 Issue 12 2903 money

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    brgh h pric crahig

    w, ad da i a lik

    igh il pric ar h w c-

    ic prbl ha w d hav wrr ab. Hwvr, ripl-digi

    il pric will rr ad a high

    ca dad will cil

    rip ppl, which argabl ha

    akd awa, i h cig ar.1

    w d wa ci dw

    h pah glbaliai, hw ca

    w bgi hik ab a alra-

    v cic r?srg lcal ci ar h

    dai rg cii

    ha ca grw ad wihad h

    rr crad b a icra-

    gl rbaid wrld. Ad rgii rqir a hliic ap-

    rach ha l prvid h

    radiial dlivrabl cic

    vlp jb, ic, walh,

    cri b al prc h -

    ir, iprv ci i-

    rarcr, icra ad dvlp

    cal kill ad capaci, rgh

    h cial abric, ad rpc hri-

    g ad clral idi. I hi wa,

    rg lcal ci al prviddai r rg aial

    ci. Cii ad w pr-

    id r appd ppri-

    rgh lcal ci b

    irig w apprach -

    aiabl dvlp ad c-

    i aag. 2Whhr ha l ar

    illag, w, brb, r gaci-

    , lcal cic dvlp ha

    criical ipac h aiabil-

    rba ara. Whvr agri-

    lral r r lad i clard r

    hr prp, whvr rad ar

    il r xpadd, whvr a whppig cr r bdivii i

    rad, whvr a rba ara idvlpd i hr, whvr

    h aral r bil vir ihagd hrgh ha aci

    h halh cii ad h

    la i acd.

    th cic dvlp ha

    ra h chag i h a-ral ad bil vir hld

    rba rid b iprv-

    g hir cic liv. Wak lcal

    ci ar xpiv r ri-

    wh r r pvr ad aciad cqc, ch

    alrii ad dia. y d-pi h r pial cii

    te pu nne eo

    domne e e eonomy.

    in 2007, od GDP (.e. e

    um o good nd eve

    podued) 44.5 on Us$

    nd e um o money n

    uon, nudng ok,

    ond nd oe ogon,

    3.3 me moun.22

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    0 D&A Autumn 2009 Issue 12 03 money 31

    e goed eonomy (ove)

    g ox oppng

    ene ke e oun o

    e need o o egmen o

    e popuon. i pon o

    e nome nd oue o

    -y nk nd nveo

    (p. 35). sm, oy ogned

    money fo n evey Euo

    pen mupe me e

    epeve oon e moe

    une (eo).

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    2 D&A Autumn 2009 Issue 12 3303 money

    J a aiabili ha prpd

    a hi i raprai ad rg

    plaig awa r radiial c-cr wih ppl a w c

    aagig dad, h c c-ic dvlp d hi

    r radiial ccr wih i-

    craig grwh rdcig -

    cial dpdc cic grwh

    r wha cld b calld eDm, ec-

    ic Dad maag. thi ha

    diic iplicai r aiablci dvlp, pariclarl

    rgardig pl ad c-

    i cic dvlp. 14

    exapl aiabl CeD iiia-

    iv icld:

    _

    car cpraiv rdc h c

    ad ci car wrhip (Va-

    cvr)

    _aiabl pl pla

    cra jb, pr priva pdig,

    ad rdc plli hrgh pbliciv i rg crvai

    ad adi (sa J, Caliria)

    _w prdc dvlp -

    crag aacrr dvlp

    virall ridl prdc

    hrgh icipal rarch ad d-vlp aiac (Ghbrg,

    swd)

    _

    icra i ardabl hig p-pl hrgh zig cd ha pr-

    a vari hig p,

    icldig allr ad liail

    h (Prlad, org);

    _

    xpri wih lcal l-rliachrgh ablih cld-

    lp, l-aiig cic -

    wrk (s. Pal, mia)

    _

    ci-pprd agriclr

    prjc prrv arlad ad

    hlp arr whil akig rhri ad vgabl availabl i

    ci ighbrhd (Vacvr;

    Ld, oari; nw yrk Ci)

    _

    crai lcal crrci ch a

    Lets, Lcal epl ad trad-

    ig s, which k rcirc-

    la lcal rrc ad rghcial i (tr; Ihaca, nw

    yrk; uid Kigd)

    _a lcal wrhip dvlp

    prjc wih a rvlvig la d

    crag pl-wd bi-

    , which ar cidrd r

    abl vr h lg r ad rlikl hir, rai, ad pr lcal

    rid (Brlig, Vr)

    _a ci bvrag cair

    rcclig dp ha pl rppldpr divrad pr-

    vid h wih kill, raiig, ad

    l- ( Vacvr). 15

    Cll rlad CeD i h -

    aiabl livlihd apprach

    pvr allviai, which ai

    addr h idia a wll a

    h lg-r d idividalad hhld ad which ak

    i cidrai h cial ad -

    viral a wll a h cic

    aiabili livlihd acivii

    ad ragi. th ida aia-bl livlihd prvid a rawrk

    drad h pracical ralii

    ad pririi h rgglig i

    pvr ha i, wha h acall

    d ak a livig, h a ha

    h ar abl draw , ad h v-

    rda prbl h ac. 16

    Bd ic grai, c-

    cl ragi dr a aia-

    bl livlihd apprach hld rv

    iprv acc ad crl vrlcal a ad hlp ak idi-

    vidal l vlrabl hck ad

    r (ch a ill, aral di-

    ar, r jb l) ha cld hr-wi xacrba iai db

    ad pvr. 17

    Hiricall, h aiabl liv-lihd rawrk ha b d

    priaril i h cx rral

    pvr allviai. B h a

    rawrk ca ail b applid

    iai rba pvr ad liv-lihd grai. I ac, a aia-

    bl livlihd apprach i car

    i rdr ackl i rba

    pvr vr h lg r. Accrd-

    ig h ILo, 184 illi ppl ih wrld d hav jb, alhgh

    hi gr rach a la 1 billi i

    drpl i al ak i

    acc. 18

    th ccp ci c-

    ic dvlp ad aiabllivlihd ghr prvid a -

    l rawrk r a alraiv ap-prach cic dvlp

    ha phai h dvlp

    rg lcal ci.

    a NEw MiNDsEtFOr thE FUtUrE

    Hw will h vrall apprach c-

    ic dvlp d chagi rdr acilia h dvlp-

    rg lcal ci?Cii, cii, ad lcal

    ci ar lidiial,

    wih a cplx iraci -

    cial, cic, clgical, ad cl-

    ral acr. s aal hik

    lcal ci i r a r

    capial. th r ci capi-al, cviall d rr j

    cic r acial capial, ha

    r rcl b d icld

    aral, phical, cic, ha,cial, ad clral r capi-

    al. srghig lcal ci

    a cig ai h

    ix r capial:

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    ial aral capial a livig

    wihi clgical lii, crvigad hacig aral rrc,

    ig rrc aiabl (il,

    air, war, rg ad ), ig

    clar prdci hd, ad

    iiizig wa (lid, liqid, air

    plli ad )

    _

    Iprvig phical capial icld

    cig ci a cha pblic acilii (ch a hpi-

    al ad chl), war ad ai-

    ai prvii, fci rapr,a ad high-qali hig, ad-

    qa irarcr, ad lc-

    icai

    _srghig cic capial

    a cig axiiig h xiig rrc (ig

    wa a a rrc, r xapl),

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    i, akig hig lcall rplacipr, craig a w prdc,

    radig airl wih hr, ad d-

    vlpig ci acial ii-

    i

    _

    Icraig ha capial rqir ac ara ch a halh, d-

    cai, rii, lirac, ad a-

    il ad ci chi, a

    wll a icrad raiig ad

    iprvd wrkplac daic

    gra r prdciv ad i-vaiv wrkr; baic dria halh ch a pac ad a,

    d, hlr, dcai, ic, ad

    pl ar car prrq-

    ii

    _

    mliplig cial capial rqir

    ai civ ad rpr-

    aiv lcal gvrac, rg

    rgaiai, capaci-bildig,

    paricipar plaig, ad acc

    irai a wll a cllabra-

    i ad parrhip

    _

    ehacig clral capial ipli

    ai radii ad val,

    hriag ad plac, h ar, divr-

    i, ad cial hir. 19

    thi apprach i icraigl r-

    rrd a aiabl ci

    dvlp ad icld bh c-

    i cic dvlp ad

    aiabl livlihd ragi.

    Whil idividal aci ad lil

    chic, ch a big rgaic pr-dc, ar ipra pral c-

    ribi, rghig lcal

    ci rqir a cllciv

    hi i idividal aci ad plii-cal chic. Ci biliai

    ha b civ i cxad rgi. th cpra-

    iv c eilia Raga i

    rhr Ial, h Gra Bak iBagladh, Vaci Crdi ui

    i Vacvr, h W Ira-

    ial swig Cpraiv nva

    Vida, ad h capaig r lcal

    rad acr nrh Arica ar all

    xapl h pial c-

    i biliai hlp rgh

    lcal ci.

    tOwarDs a NEw,

    bEttEr, sMallErwOrlD

    srg lcal ci ar a da-al par aiabl c-

    ii. th giv cii h

    capaci ad rrc addr

    pcic ad idia prbl

    ch a h prvii halh car,adqa hig, cla war ad

    aiai, ad diar prvi

    ad rp. Ha l

    larg ad all, rich ad pr drg lcal ci wihad

    h prr crad b a icra-

    igl rbaid wrld.

    Glbaliai wa h rl

    wi cic hri brillial

    applid, b rahr chap il. s-aiabl cii wih rg

    lcal ci will c ail h rqir igica chag i

    r rcr, aid, ad val.

    saiabl dvlp ipli a

    hi i h capaci idividal,

    cpai, ad ai r-

    rc ha h hav h righ

    ad ar cragd

    dr pr lgal ad cic ar-

    rag. Alhgh v h

    cvial aal rcgi hd r chagig h arrag-

    , w pl ackwldg ha

    vig ward a aiabl ci-

    rqir r ha ir adj- xiig pracic. th

    wh b r crr arrag-

    will ri r dcral-

    i h c ad rgh lcal

    cii. micipalii ard

    h wrld hav wrkd ghr c-cll ifc glbal chag

    viral ar; h

    w icrpra a rg lcal c-

    c i hir aiabili

    agda.20

    Whil dvlpd ci havbcd back r pa il hck,

    ad w chlgi hld h

    pibili rdcig dpdc

    il, high il pric ar a viral cr-

    ai b a crai which w

    ca adap. Wih chap il, dvl-

    pd cri ar likl ipr

    l r lw-wag cri lik

    Chia ad ak r hig a h,

    r l rir d.21 I

    a rpc, h w allr

    wrld awaiig will b a br

    ad r aiabl wrld ha h

    crahig ard w.

    thi aricl i bad p m. R-

    lad wih L. s, srghig

    Lcal eci, i Wrldwach I-i, sa h Wrld 2007: or

    urba Fr (nw yrk: WW. nr-

    & C., 2007).

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    Dvlp ad Prr i h

    Dpar Ggraph a Ca-

    ada si Frar uivri. H

    lcr iraiall ad advicii ad gvr

    aiabl dvlp plic adplaig. Dr. Rlad al rv

    h Bard h si Frar ui-

    vri Ci tr, which i

    rpibl r h uivrCi -

    aiabl ci dvlp

    prjc (www.uivrCi.ca ).

    cOMMUNitY

    caPital: UsiNG allOUr rEsOUrcEs

    Alraiv cic hri ad

    da ar w: e. F. schachr

    rpd h ida w c-

    c i hi ifial bk sall i

    Bail: ecic A I Ppl

    mard, prig all-cal

    vlp bad ig

    pl lcal d. sic h, al-

    raiv lcal cic apprach

    av b p rward i bh i-

    rial ad dvlpig cri

    apprach ha ar rd i c-

    i ad digd lcal

    d ad bjciv. Ci

    cic Dvlp (CeD) ad

    aiabl livlihd ar w x-

    pl h alraiv ra-

    i. 12Ci ecic Dvlp-

    prvid a ccpal a

    addrig aiabl cicvlp a h ci

    vl. I cr pricipl icld a

    i-bad apprach d-

    lp; dirc ad aigl

    i paricipai; igra-

    g cic, clgical, ad cial

    pc lcal dvlp; a--bad dvlp dd

    i rgh ad rrcahr ha dcici; ad bild-

    g ci l-rliac. I di-

    gihig ar ar caprd i

    hi dii: CeD i a prc b

    which cii ca iiia ad

    ra hir w li hir

    cic prbl ad

    hrb bild lg-r ci

    apaci ad r h igrai

    cic, cial, ad vir-

    al bjciv. 13

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    04

    3504 materials

    F a t t c tat ab v- at pt. Ma mata ab xtact m t t bp

    at a -taab at. A taabttat 2050 w t av t at pbm wat a mata fw. T w tat t a m cmc,ptca, ca a tcca ccpt avaabaa tat w p acv t a.

    By rch Cckn

    materialsBeyond WAsTe:MAnAging MATeriAl FloWsin The 21sT CenTury

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    8 3904 materialsD&a aUtUmN 2009 issU e 12

    social measures

    infuenn onuon: h go-b conu c ky py

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