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Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, November 02, 2018 Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

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Page 1: Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix Groupreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIXDAILY... · 2018. 11. 2. · MCX Silver Dec 2018 Silver gained as the dollar weakened

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, November 02, 2018

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

Page 2: Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix Groupreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIXDAILY... · 2018. 11. 2. · MCX Silver Dec 2018 Silver gained as the dollar weakened

14.67CRUDE $

63.69

-0.08 -0.33 -2.48

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1232.20SILVER $

USDJPY112.694

-0.01 -0.05 0.03EURUSD

1.1400GBPUSD

1.2987

LME

NICKEL

11810

-0.7 -0.79 -0.17

LME

COPPER

6096 LME

ZINC

2525

$ INDEX96.35

0 -0.33 0.02

LME ALUMINIUM

1976 LME

LEAD

1951

DJIA25116

-0.03 -0.06 0.97SENSEX

34432NIFTY

10380

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 2

NIKKEI21842

-0.7 1.09 0.71USDINR

73.68 S&P

INDEX

2712

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MCX Gold Dec 2018

Gold gained as the recent drop in metal prices and an easing of the U.S. dollar from multi-month highs stoked buying.

Gold on MCX settled up 0.45% at 31892 as the recent drop in metal

prices and an easing of the U.S. dollar from multi-month highs stoked

buying. Investors are wary of a potential saturation in currencies ahead of

the U.S. mid-term elections and amid other geo-political uncertainties.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping both

expressed optimism about resolving their bitter trade disputes ahead of a

high-stakes meeting planned for the two leaders at the end of November

in Argentina. Trump increased economic pressure on Venezuela’s leftist

President Nicolas Maduro with new sanctions aimed at disrupting the

South American country’s gold exports. The U.S. economy is expanding

at a 3.0 percent annualised rate in the fourth quarter, following the latest

data on manufacturing activity and construction spending, the Atlanta

Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed. The UK and the

European Union have made progress on a deal to give London’s dominant

financial centre basic access to EU markets after Brexit, two British

officials said, but no agreement has yet been clinched. SPDR Gold Trust

(GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its

holdings rose 0.90 percent to 760.82 tonnes on Thursday from 754.06

tonnes on Wednesday. Global demand for gold rose slightly in the third

quarter compared to the same period a year ago as resurgent buying

from central banks and retail consumers balanced huge outflows from

exchange traded funds, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop

in open interest by -0.3% to settled at 13387 while prices up 144 rupees,

now Gold is getting support at 31778 and below same could see a test of

31665 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31971, a move

above could see prices testing 32051.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

31787

SUPPORT 3

32164 32051 31971 31778 31665 31585

31938 31745 31892 0.45 13387

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 3

Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 31665-32051.

Investors are wary of a potential saturation in currencies ahead of the U.S. mid-term elections and amid other geo-political uncertainties.

Indian gold demand in 2018 is expected to fall from the previous year as a rally in local prices to five-year highs is likely to dent purchases during key festivals.

Sales of gold coins and minted bars dropped 41 percent from September to 36,840 ounces, the mint said.

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MCX Silver Dec 2018

Silver gained as the dollar weakened after flirting with 10-week highs on the bullish private jobs report.

Silver on MCX settled up 1.89% at 38771 as the dollar weakened after

flirting with 10-week highs on the bullish private jobs report. Federal data

showed new applications for U.S. unemployment aid fell last week and

the number of Americans receiving benefits was the lowest in more than

45 years as labour market conditions tightened further. The economy’s

upbeat outlook was, however, tempered by news that manufacturing

activity slowed in October as a measure of new orders dropped to its

lowest level in 1-1/2 years. President Trump said in a tweet on Thursday

that he had a "long and very good conversation" with President Xi on

trade and North Korea and that the two planned to meet at the upcoming

G-20 summit. A British official said that London was close to a deal that

will grant UK-based financial services firms basic access to the rest of the

European Union markets. The Bank of England (BOE) announced it would

keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and this also bolstered the

sterling, but the BOE also hinted at faster rate increases if Brexit goes

smoothly. Markets are also watching the U.S. congressional elections on

Tuesday, which will determine whether the Republican or Democratic

party controls the U.S. Congress, with some predicting increased market

volatility on the outcome. Investors will focus on Friday’s non-farm

payrolls data for further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. Silver

sales were down 17 percent from September to 1,079,684 ounces, the

mint said. Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -19.74% to settled at 24031, now

Silver is getting support at 38218 and below same could see a test of

37665 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39107, a move

above could see prices testing 39443.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

38025 38890

39996 39443 39107 38218 37665 37329

38001 38771 1.89 24031

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 4

Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 37665-39443.

The U.S. economy is expanding at a 3.0 percent annualised rate in the fourth quarter, following the latest data on manufacturing activity and construction spending.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping both expressed optimism about resolving their bitter trade disputes.

Silver sales were down 17 percent from September to 1,079,684 ounces, the mint said.

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MCX Crudeoil Nov 2018

Crude oil dropped amid signs of rising supply and growing concerns that demand might weaken on the prospect of a global economic slowdown.

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -4.7% at 4662 as rising crude supply met

the bearish combination of concern over global growth and weak equity

markets. Russia is pumping oil at a post-Soviet high, U.S. crude output

has topped 11 million barrels a day and a Reuters survey of OPEC

production shows the group more than made up for any declines in

Iranian shipments in October. U.S. Energy Information Administration

data showed crude oil inventories climbed for a sixth straight week. U.S.

crude production stood at 11.3 million barrels per day in August, up 3.8%

compared to July, and had surged 22.7% from August last year. Losses

were kept in check as looming U.S. sanctions on Iran, the third-largest

producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

(OPEC), are widely expected to lead to a tighter market. The sanctions,

due to come into force Nov. 4, are being reinstated after U.S. President

Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal earlier this year. Still,

Goldman Sachs reiterated a year-end forecast for Brent prices of $80

barrel. The bank said 2018 oil demand growth, though down slightly,

remains above consensus expectations, and said Chinese demand

continues to show resilience despite concerns over the world's second-

biggest economy. Meanwhile a Reuters survey found the Organization of

the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) boosted oil production in

October to its highest since 2016, as higher output led by the United Arab

Emirates and Libya more than offset a cut in Iranian shipments due to

U.S. sanctions, set to start on Nov. 4. Technically market is under fresh

selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 47.58% to

settled at 14466 while prices down -230 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting

support at 4574 and below same could see a test of 4487 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 4804, a move above could see

prices testing 4947.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

4860 4860

5034 4947 4804 4574 4487 4344

4630 4662 -4.70 14466

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 5

Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4487-4947.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude oil inventories climbed for a sixth straight week.

U.S. crude production stood at 11.3 million barrels per day in August, up 3.8% compared to July, and had surged 22.7% from August last year.

A survey from showed that OPEC’s oil production in October was 33.31 million bpd, up 390,000 bpd from September and the highest since December 2016.

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MCX Copper Nov 2018

Copper rallied after the presidents of the United States and China both expressed optimism about resolving a trade row between the two countries.

Copper on MCX settled up 1.16% at 440.75 tracking firmness from LME

Copper prices which rose 1.6 percent to $6,089 per tonne as investors

greeted the latest batch of earnings optimistically amid signs of easing

trade tension. The dollar sank, and oil tumbled. Support seen with most

metals recovering from Wednesday’s dip amid a softer US dollar index

and a continued drawdown in LME inventories. Prices may see some

sentimental support as market participants were also betting on economic

stimulus measures in China after the world’s top metals consumer

pledged to boost domestic infrastructure spending to combat a perceived

slowdown in its economy. Last night most LME and SHFE base metals

ended in the black overnight with LME nickel being the best performer, up

2.5% on the day. LME copper and zinc surged 2.3%, lead jumped 1.75%,

aluminium rose by over 1%. The US dollar retreated from multi-month

highs on Thursday while the pound rose the most in nine months on

reports that London is close to a financial services deal with Brussels. A

British official said that London was close to a deal that will grant UK-

based financial services firms basic access to the rest of the EU markets.

The BOE announced it would keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday

and this also bolstered the sterling, but the BOE also hinted at faster rate

increases if Brexit goes smoothly. The US will release October nonfarm

payrolls, the September trade balance, durable goods orders and factory

orders. Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -7.79% to settled at 13976, now

Copper is getting support at 434.9 and below same could see a test of

428.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 444.3, a move

above could see prices testing 447.7.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

437.00

SUPPORT 3

453.7 447.7 444.3 434.9 428.9 425.5

441.70 432.35 440.75 1.16 13976

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 428.9-447.7.

Inventories of copper in LME-approved warehouses, at 143,125 tonnes, are down more than 60 percent since the 2018 peak near 390,000 tonnes.

The problem is compounded by cancelled warrants at nearly 54 percent of total stocks and a large holding of copper warrants between 50 and 79 percent.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 136675mt that is down by -950mt.

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 6

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MCX Zinc Nov 2018

Zinc prices ended with gains on concerns of an environmental crackdown in China.

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.88% at 188.65 gained on expectations of eased

US-China trade tension buoyed LME zinc to a high of $2,566/mt last

night. It regained most of its losses on Thursday and settled at

$2,544.5/mt. Total zinc inventories are at their lowest since 2008,

prompting one of the widest backwardations in the metal’s nearby

cash/three-month spread, recently seen at $63 per tonne. Prices may see

some sentimental support as market participants were also betting on

economic stimulus measures in China after the world’s top metals

consumer pledged to boost domestic infrastructure spending to combat a

perceived slowdown in its economy. Last night most LME and SHFE base

metals ended in the black overnight with LME nickel being the best

performer, up 2.5% on the day. LME copper and zinc surged 2.3%, lead

jumped 1.75%, aluminium rose by over 1%. The US dollar retreated from

multi-month highs on Thursday while the pound rose the most in nine

months on reports that London is close to a financial services deal with

Brussels. A British official said that London was close to a deal that will

grant UK-based financial services firms basic access to the rest of the EU

markets. The BOE announced it would keep interest rates unchanged on

Thursday and this also bolstered the sterling, but the BOE also hinted at

faster rate increases if Brexit goes smoothly. The US will release October

nonfarm payrolls, the September trade balance, durable goods orders and

factory orders. Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -6.3% to settled at 3080, now Zinc is

getting support at 187.2 and below same could see a test of 185.6 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 190.6, a move above could see

prices testing 192.4.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

188.9

SUPPORT 3

194.0 192.4 190.6 187.2 185.6 183.8

190.9 187.4 188.7 0.88 3080

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 185.6-192.4.

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) said that it will begin the second round of environmental reviews soon.

Stocks across Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin rose by 1,800 mt from Friday Oct 26 to stand at 150,700 mt as of now.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 144175mt that is down by -6850mt.

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 7

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MCX Nickel Nov 2018

Nickel ended with gains as expectations of eased US-China trade tension buoyed prices

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.2% at 867 prices gained on short covering

tracking LME Nickel rebounded from a 10-month low touched on

Wednesday, ending 2.7 percent higher at $11,785 tonnes. Nickel was the

best performer among MCX, LME and SHFE base metals overnight. Miner

and trader Glencore said it saw significant structural deficits continuing in

the nickel market due to limited supply and demand being “much

stronger than most market participants recognise”. Support also seen as

Miner and trader Glencore said it saw significant structural deficits

continuing in the nickel market due to limited supply and demand being

“much stronger than most market participants recognise. Prices may see

some sentimental support as market participants were also betting on

economic stimulus measures in China after the world’s top metals

consumer pledged to boost domestic infrastructure spending to combat a

perceived slowdown in its economy. Last night most LME and SHFE base

metals ended in the black overnight with LME nickel being the best

performer, up 2.5% on the day. LME copper and zinc surged 2.3%, lead

jumped 1.75%, aluminium rose by over 1%. The US dollar retreated from

multi-month highs on Thursday while the pound rose the most in nine

months on reports that London is close to a financial services deal with

Brussels. The BOE announced it would keep interest rates unchanged on

Thursday and this also bolstered the sterling, but the BOE also hinted at

faster rate increases if Brexit goes smoothly. Technically market is

getting support at 854.4 and below same could see a test of 841.7 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 876, a move above could see

prices testing 884.9.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

856.9

SUPPORT 3

897.6 884.9 876.0 854.4 841.7 832.8

872.2 850.6 867 1.20 14451

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 841.7-884.9.

China's manufacturing sector barely grew last month after stalling in September, after the country's official PMI showed the slowest growth in over two years.

Production of nickel pig iron in Jiangsu province is unlikely to be affected by provincial winter curbs this year as the restrictions mainly target blast furnaces.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 218868mt that is up by 6mt.

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 8

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NCDEX Jeera Dec 2018

Jeera prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained on crop concern due to water shortage in producing centres of Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 1.65% at 20980 amid concerns over

production amid prevailing high temperature. During monsoon season,

Jeera producing districts of Gujarat received scanty rains, which will affect

its production in next season. The prevailing water crisis may curtail jeera

sowing by about 25% from last year’s 7.80 lakh ha. Jeera exports (both

in seed and powdered form) down 20% on year in August 2018 to 11,324

tonnes (Vs 14,283). However, jeera exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Aug) has

crossed 1 lakh tonnes, up 54.8% compared to exports last year for same

period as per data released by Commerce Ministry. Seasonally, the

exports of Jeera dip during the 4th quarter of the calendar year. However,

those regions which have good irrigation facilities will have good output.

According to the initial trade estimate, there may not be any increase in

the sowing area of jeera because of dry weather. However, if the

producing states receive good rains in November, then the sowing area

could see an increase. The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected

to increase as the supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are

limited and of poor quality. Although Indian jeera is priced higher in the

global market, it is drawing more buyers because of superior quality. As

per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18 is

estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. In

Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 400 Rupees to

end at 20003.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting

support at 20750 and below same could see a test of 20515 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 21125, a move above could see

prices testing 21265.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

20880

SUPPORT 3

21225 21115 20980 20735 20625 20490

21005 20760 20840 -0.67 3387

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6947-6947.

Sowing was expected to be higher due to prevailing high prices but lower rains in producing areas may impact the yield and overall output.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 101 tonnes to 2791 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 20320 rupee per 100 kg.

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 9

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NCDEX Turmeric Dec 2018

Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking and on expectations of better crop this season.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.97% at 6730 on profit booking

and on expectations of better crop this season. Turmeric sowing in all the

major producing states is higher than last year and weather also

remained favourable. According to the Department of Horticulture and

Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in Erode may jump

nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) because of

very good rainfall this year and availability of other water sources. In

Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare compared to 44,956

hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh

farmers planted turmeric over an area 18,000 hectares up from 14,000

hectares a year ago. During the September, arrivals of turmeric have

been higher at 12,478 t (Vs 10,978 t) compared last year, as per data. As

per data released by Commerce Ministry, turmeric exports during the

month of August 2018, increase by 51.6% on year to 12,045 tonnes (Vs

7,944 tonnes). As per trade information, currently all India Turmeric

stocks are reported around 24 - 25 lakh bags as compared to last year 32

– 34 lakh bags down by around 24 per cent. Currently turmeric stocks in

Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were estimated around 3.90 lakh

bags as compared to around 2.80 lakh bags same period last year. In

Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7087.5 Rupees

remains unchanged at0 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling

as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.76% to settled at

6610 while prices down -66 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at

6686 and below same could see a test of 6640 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 6804, a move above could see prices testing

6876.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

6830

SUPPORT 3

6922 6876 6804 6686 6640 6568

6830 6712 6730 -0.97 6610

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6640-6876.

Turmeric sowing in all the major producing states is higher than last year and weather also remained favourable.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 279 tonnes to 3185 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7087.5 Rupees remains unchanged at0 Rupees.

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 10

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MCX Menthaoil Nov 2018

Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.28% at 1820.2 due to bullish demand

outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also

witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper

crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving

upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at

400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies

rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary

estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton

against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of

crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices

are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil

spot at Sambhal closed at 1941.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by

Rs.20.80/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has

witnessed gain in open interest by 2.99% to settled at 1516 while prices

up 5 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1805.8 and below same

could see a test of 1791.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

1830.3, a move above could see prices testing 1840.4.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

1805.10

SUPPORT 3

1854.8 1840.4 1830.3 1805.8 1791.4 1781.3

1826.00 1801.50 1820.20 0.28 1516

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1791.4-1840.4.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1941.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.20.80/-.

Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.

Date : Friday, November 02, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 11

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TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -950 136675

ALUMINIUM -625 1047325

NICKEL 6 218868

LEAD 300 113550

ZINC -6850 144175

4040 22550 20840 4635 6730 4176 571.3 3407

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Dec

2018

NCDEX Cotton Nov

2018

NCDEX Jeera Dec

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Dec 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Dec 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Dec

2018MCX CPO Nov 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Dec 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Dec 2018

759.35CLOSE

P. POINT 4031 22440 20870 4646 6758 4172

4067 22740 20980 4687 6804 4203

RESISTANCE

4130 23240 21225 4779 6922 4260

570.4 3390 758

770

4094 22940 21115 4738 6876 4229 575.3 3454 765

578.2 3494

573.3 3430 763

4554 6640 4115 565.5 3326 751

4004 22240 20735 4595 6686 4146 568.4 3366

749

Cng in OI 5.34 -1.97 1.53 7.37 15.76 6.69 -2.30 11.12 11.92

SUPPORT

3941 21740 20490 4503 6568 4089 563.5 3302

756

3968 21940 20625

Fresh Buying

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

12:30pm EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.004 0

TREND Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Buying

1:15pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance 0 -97.3B

1:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 51 51.4

2:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 49.7 50

2:20pm EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.2

2:25pm EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 52.3 52.3

2:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 52.1

6:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.002 0.003

6:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 134K

6:00pm USD Unemployment Rate 0.038 0.037

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-950-625

6300

-6850

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0

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

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NEWS YOU CAN USE

The International Lead and Zinc Group (ILZSG) has just drastically revised its estimate of supply-demand balance in the lead market. At its October meeting the group

lifted its assessment of the supply deficit this year to 123,000 tonnes from its April forecast of 17,000 tonnes. While projected demand growth has been slashed to just

0.2 percent from 2.7 percent, the supply side of the equation has come in for even more radical revision. Mine supply, which was expected to grow by a robust 4.2

percent in April, is now expected to fall by 0.2 percent this year. That in turn will drag refined metal production growth down to just 0.4 percent from a previous forecast

of 3.8 percent. The ILZSG's estimates are broadly in line with those of Wood Mackenzie, although the research group has a slightly different deficit timeline. But,

according to Farid Ahmed, Woodmac's lead analyst, "what is certainly true is that our 2018 mine supply figures have continued to fall throughout the year" to the tune of

around 450,000 tonnes, split fairly evenly between China and the rest of the world. Current deficit in the lead market mirrors that in the zinc market and reflects the

closure over the last few years of major mines which produced both "sister" metals. Environmental crackdown in China, meanwhile, has hollowed out the country's

traditional role as swing producer of both metals during periods of tightness.

There is no risk of contagion from Italy’s budget crisis in the European Union but the euro zone is not prepared enough to face a new economic crisis, French Finance

Minister Bruno Le Maire told daily Le Parisien. The European Commission rejected Italy’s draft 2019 budget earlier this week for breaking EU rules on public spending, and

asked Rome to submit a new one within three weeks or face disciplinary action. “We do not see any contagion in Europe. The European Commission has reached out to

Italy, I hope Italy will seize this hand,” he said in an interview. Euro zone officials have said that Rome’s unprecedented standoff with Brussels seems certain to delay the

reform process and probably dilute it for good. Le Maire also said French banks with branches in Italy had issued corporate and household loans totaling 280 billion euros.

India's vegetable oil imports fell 2% on year to 1.49 mln tn in September, according to data from Solvent Extractors' Association of India. During Nov-Sep, the country

imported 13.8 mln tn of vegetable oil compared with 14.3 mln tn a year ago. Despite rupee depreciation, import of vegetable oil in Aug-Sep was higher compared to

previous months due to lower stocks of edible oil in the pipeline and as fall in palm oil prices encouraged purchases, the association said. During Nov-Sep, palm oil

imports fell to 7.9 mln tn from 8.5 mln tn a year ago, while import of soft oils were largely unchanged at 5.4 mln tn. Meanwhile, as of Oct 1, India had 923,000 tn of

edible oil lying at ports, with another 1.63 mln tn in the pipeline. India's total demand for edible oils during 2017-18 (Nov-Oct) is estimated at 23 mln tn. On a monthly

basis, the country requires 1.9 mln tn of edible oil. The country has over 2.55 mln tn edible oil in stocks, enough to meet demand for 40 days, the association said.

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