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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 30
TH
JANUARY 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Forex News: Euro Declines Despite Improved German Consumer Confidence
FOREX: New Zealand Unemployment And CPI Could Make Rate Hike Unlikely
Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns Of A Turn Lower
Forex: EURUSD - Trading the Advance 4Q U.S. GDP Report
The advanced GDP report is expected to show the
world’s largest economy expanding at an annual rate of
1.1% in the fourth-quarter, and the slower rate of
growth may dampen the appeal of the U.S. dollar as it
fuels bets for additional monetary support. However,
as a growing number of Fed officials highlight a more
broad-based recovery, a positive development may
spark a short-term rally in the reserve currency, and we
may see the central bank scale back its willingness to
expand the balance sheet further as the outlook for
growth and inflation picks up.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3425 tgs
1.3410/1.3395 sl
1.3445
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5690 tgt
1.5675/1.5660 SL
1.5710
SELL EURGBP BELOW
.8545 tgt
.8530/.8515 SL .8565
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3447
HIGH: 1.3461
LOW: 1.3428
CLOSE: 1.3445
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>. -0005(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45.06(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 90.44
HIGH: 91.02
LOW: 90.43
CLOSE: 90.66
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => 0000( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>46(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5697
HIGH: 1.5715
LOW: 1.5692
CLOSE: 1.5716
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8567
HIGH: 0.8570
LOW: 0.8547
CLOSE: 0.8561
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.-0022(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>49(BEARISH SIGNAL)
www.epicresearch.co + 91 9752199966
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ECONOMIC CALENDER
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 79.7860
HIGH: 80.8490
LOW: 79.7500
CLOSE: 79.8000
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>-0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Jan 27 01:30
CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (DEC)
Medium 5.3%
3.0%
21:30
NZD Performance Services Index (DEC)
Low 51.5
54.2
23:50
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (DEC)
Low -0.4% -0.5% -0.5%
Mon
Jan 28
CNY Leading Index (DEC)
Medium
100.21
00:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JAN)
Low 0.0%
-0.1%
00:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JAN)
Low -0.3%
-0.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (DEC)
Low 3.7% 3.8% 3.4%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Low 3.3% 3.9% 3.8%
13:30
USD Durable Goods Orders (DEC)
High
2.0% 0.8%
13:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (DEC)
Medium
0.8% 1.6%
13:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (DEC)
Low
-1.0% 2.6%
13:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (DEC)
Low
0.5% 2.0%
15:00
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.1% 1.7%
15:00
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
12.5% 8.9%
15:30
USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JAN)
Low
3.0 6.8
21:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)
Medium
-105M -700M
21:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)
Medium
-1870B -1457B
21:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)
Low
3.98B 3.81B
21:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (DEC)
Low
4.13B 4.51B
23:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (NOV)
Medium
0.2%
Tue Jan 29
00:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (DEC)
Low
-5
00:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (DEC)
Medium
-9
05:00
JPY Small Business Confidence (JAN)
Medium
43.8
07:00
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
Low
-0.1% 0.0%
07:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)
Medium
5.7 5.6
07:00
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
Low
0.9% 1.1%
14:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City (MoM) s.a. (NOV)
Low
0.7% 0.7%
14:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (NOV)
Low
5.6% 4.3%
14:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (NOV)
Low
146.08
15:00
USD Consumer Confidence (JAN)
High
64 65.1
21:45
NZD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)
Low
6.0% -5.4%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.4% 0.0%
23:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
0.3% 1.3%
23:50
JPY Large Retailers' Sales (DEC)
Medium
-1.0% 0.9%
Wed Jan 30
00:00
AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (DEC)
Low
-3.5%
07:00
CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (DEC)
Medium
1.23
08:00
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JAN)
Medium
1.2 1.28
09:30
GBP Net Consumer Credit (DEC)
Medium
0.2B 0.1B
09:30
GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC)
Medium
0.6B -0.2B
09:30
GBP Mortgage Approvals (DEC)
Medium
54.5K 54.0K
09:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (DEC)
Low
-0.2%
09:30
GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC)
Low
-2.8%
09:30
GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (DEC)
Low
4.3%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JAN)
Low
88.2 87
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate
Low
-1 -1.12
Indicator (JAN)
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JAN)
Low
-13.5 -14.4
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JAN F)
Medium
-23.9 -23.9
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JAN)
Low
-9 -9.8
12:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JAN 25)
Low
7.0%
13:15
USD ADP Employment Change (JAN)
Medium
163K 215K
13:30
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A)
High
1.2% 3.1%
13:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q A)
High
1.5% 2.7%
13:30
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q A)
Medium
1.0% 1.1%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption (4Q A)
Medium
1.8% 1.6%
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 25)
Low
2813K
15:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JAN 25)
Low
-471K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JAN 25)
Low
-1738K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JAN 25)
Low
508K
19:15
USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (JAN 30)
High
0.25%
20:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JAN 31)
High
2.50% 2.50%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JAN 25)
Low
-¥35.2B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JAN 25)
Low
-¥235.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JAN 25)
Low
¥485.7B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JAN 25)
Low
¥196.2B
23:50
JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC)
Low
0.4%
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC P)
Low
4.1% -1.4%
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC P)
Medium
-5.6% -5.5%
Thu Jan 31
00:00
AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
4.7%
JPY Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi Speaks
Medium
00:01
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN)
Medium
-28 -29
00:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.2% 0.0%
00:30
AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
3.4% 3.5%
00:30
AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
-1.5% -6.4%
00:30
AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
0.4% -2.4%
01:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-1.1%
02:00
NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)
Low
5.0%
04:00
JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (DEC)
Low
-8.4%
05:00
JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
13.5% 10.3%
05:00
JPY Annualized Housing Starts (DEC)
Medium
0.895M 0.907M
05:00
JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (DEC)
Low
-2.1%
07:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2% -0.1%
07:00
GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-0.5% -1.0%
07:00
EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)
Low
-0.1% 1.2%
07:00
EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-1.3% -0.9%
08:55
EUR German Unemployment Change (JAN)
High
8K 3K
08:55
EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)
Medium
6.9% 6.9%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
2.2%
12:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-22.1%
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN P)
Medium
-0.5% 0.9%
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN P)
High
2.0% 2.1%
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN P)
Medium
-0.5% 0.9%
13:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN P)
High
2.0% 2.0%
13:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (NOV)
Medium
0.2% 0.1%
13:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (NOV)
High
1.1%
13:30
USD Employment Cost Index (4Q)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
13:30
USD Personal Income (DEC)
Medium
0.8% 0.6%
13:30
USD Personal Spending (DEC)
Medium
0.3% 0.4%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.0% -0.2%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (DEC)
Low
1.4% 1.4%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
13:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (DEC)
Low
1.5% 1.5%
13:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 27)
Medium
355K 330K
13:30
USD Continuing Claims (JAN 20)
Low
3157K
13:30
CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.0% -0.3%
13:30
CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.8% -1.9%
14:00
USD NAPM-Milwaukee (JAN)
Low
14:45
USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JAN)
Low
51 51.6
15:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JAN 25)
Low
-172
21:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (DEC)
Low
590
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN)
Medium
44.3
23:00
AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (JAN)
Low
-0.30%
23:30
JPY Jobless Rate (DEC)
Medium
4.10% 4.1%
23:30
JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (DEC)
Low
0.8 0.8
23:30
JPY Household Spending (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-0.2% 0.2%
Fri Feb 1
JPY Official Reserve Assets (JAN)
Low
$1268.1B
00:30
AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
0.3% 0.6%
00:30
AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (4Q)
Medium
1.2% 1.1%
01:00
CNY Manufacturing PMI (JAN)
Medium
51 50.6
01:45
CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (JAN)
Medium
52 51.5
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-3.4%
05:30
AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (JAN)
Low
89.2
05:30
AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-8.0%
08:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JAN)
Medium
50.4 49.5
08:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN)
Low
47.6 46.7
08:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F)
Low
42.9 42.9
08:55
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F)
Medium
48.8 48.8
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F)
Medium
47.5 47.5
09:00
EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC P)
Low
11.3% 11.1%
09:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index
Medium
51 51.4
Manufacturing (JAN)
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (DEC)
Medium
11.9% 11.8%
13:30
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JAN)
High
155K 155K
13:30
USD Change in Private Payrolls (JAN)
Medium
162K 168K
13:30
USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JAN)
Low
10K 25K
13:30
USD Unemployment Rate (JAN)
High
7.8% 7.8%
13:30
USD Average Hourly Earning (MoM) All Employees (JAN)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
13:30
USD Average Hourly Earning (YoY) All Employees (JAN)
Medium
2.1% 2.1%
13:30
USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JAN)
Low
34.5 34.5
13:30
USD Change in Household Employment (JAN)
Medium
28
13:30
USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (JAN)
Medium
14.4%
13:58
USD Markit US PMI Final (JAN)
Low
14:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN F)
Medium
71.3 71.3
15:00
USD Construction Spending (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
0.5% -0.3%
15:00
USD ISM Manufacturing (JAN)
High
50.5 50.7
15:00
USD ISM Prices Paid (JAN)
Medium
56 55.5
22:00
USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JAN)
Low
12.00M 11.97M
22:00
USD Total Vehicle Sales (JAN)
Low
15.20M 15.30M
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