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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 4,avenue d‘Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland Tel +41 58 721 90 00 Fax +41 58 721 90 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
FINALIST BEST FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY
MA
S-TERM MULTI-DAY
L-TERM MULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/ POSITION
ENTRY LEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.2740 1.2000/1.1650 (Entered 18/06/2012) 1.2740
GBP/USD Sell limit 3 1.5900 1.5800/1.5400/1.5200 1.6000
USD/JPY Negative bias remains, await fresh signal.
USD/CHF LONG 2 0.9500 1.0000/1.0500 (Entered 15/06/2012) 0.9500
USD/CAD LONG 3 1.0260 1.0370/1.0700/1.1000 (Entered 22/06/2012) 1.0150
AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0200 0.9700/0.9300 (Entered 20/06/2012) 1.0200
GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 127.00 125.00/120.00/117.00 129.00
EUR/JPY Sell limit 3 100.05 99.05/95.50/90.00 101.05
EUR/GBP Missed sell. Look to sell higher.
EUR/CHF Stand Aside.
GOLD LONG 3 1560 1620/1700/1790 (Entered 22/06/2012) 1540
SILVER LONG 3 27.50 28.50/30.00/31.50 (Entered 21/06/2012) 26.50
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
Bijoy Kar, CFA Senior Analyst
Cedric Poretti Junior Analyst
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
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Resistance expected close to 1.2515 / 1.2560.
• EUR/USD appears to be in a short term squeeze higher, with resistance
expected close to 1.2515 and 1.2560.
• Should these moves take place, or, if an earlier break under 1.2442 (26
June low) can be achieved, then a substantial extension lower would be
expected, targeting the 1.2288 region once again.
• The USD Index also appears strong in the short-term timeframe.
However, we need to see a break over 82.89 (8 June high) to open up a
full retrace to 83.542. This remains our central scenario, with a sustained
push over this level then warning of a substantial extension higher.
• Failure to hold under 1.2748 will likely target the 1.2900 region at which
point our bearish bias will be neutralised.
Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
Media Interview: Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1650, Stop: 1.2740
EUR/USD
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Further short-term strength possible.
Broken support at 1.5603 capping.
• GBP/USD has seen an overdue corrective rebound from just ahead of
the 1.5235 YTD low although early signs of stalling are noted ahead of
broken support at 1.5603.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 1.5900, Objs: 1.5800/1.5400/1.5200, Stop: 1.6000
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
• GBP/USD continues to behave eratically consistent with its largely
rangebound longer-term direction.
• Short-term structure suggests scope for a further squeeze higher to re-
test and break over 1.5793.
• However, the 1.5900 region, close to the 61.8% retrace of the 1.6302-
1.5269 fall, is anticipated to yield a degree of supply/resistance should it
be tested.
• The large devaluation versus the US Dollar has already taken place in
2008, so strength in the USD Index is not expected to be as
aggressively exhibited in cable, hence our bearish view in EUR/GBP.
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
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Under 79.25 will weaken further.
• USD/JPY has eased off slightly from the recent rebound which is still viewed as corrective. The medium-term structure is still deemed negative.
• In a similar manner to our reasoning in cable, there is not a large scope for downside in this pair, although a return to 75.35 is still deemed possible. With this in mind, a break under 79.25 is sought before strategy formulation.
• Failure to form a lower high will suggest the formation of an inverted head and shoulders set-up in the daily timeframe and a return to strength.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting renewed buy trade setup.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Negative bias remains, await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY hourly, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Over 0.9658 to strengthen further.
• First objective met, stop moved to entry.
• USD/CHF continues to grind higher reaching our first target at 0.9650,
yesterday, reaching 0.9653. We now seek a further push over 0.9658
(8 June high) to confirm 0.9423 as a higher low.
• A shallow retrace is now anticipated with support likely near 0.9600 and
then close to 0.9565.
• The bigger picture remains supported by a strongly bullish structure
present since 0.9002 / 0.8931.
• An eventual break over 0.9772 is anticipated. Should this materialise,
there would then be scope for a substantial further extension higher.
• Longer-term the break over both the 200 day and 50 week moving
averages favours a stronger recovery higher towards 1.1000/1.1731.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 2 at 0.9500, Objs:1.0000/1.0500, Stop: 0.9500
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Over 1.0335 to strengthen the near-term outlook.
• USD/CAD has now completed a falling wedge formation in the hourly
timeframe, suggesting an end to the corrective phase off 1.0447
• In line with our general view in the US Dollar index, we now seek a push
back over 1.0335 (8 June high) to strengthen the near-term outlook.
• An eventual return to the October 2011 high at 1.0658 is anticipated over
coming weeks.
• Meanwhile, only a decisive break back beneath 0.9800 would weaken the
evolving bullish scenario.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 3 at 1.0260, Objs: 1.0370/1.0700/1.1000, Stop: 1.0150
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Current rise seen as a short-term corrective phase. • AUD/USD appears to be in the midst of a short-term corrective phase,
after meeting demand at 0.9969.
• In order to consider 1.0224 as a lower high we will need to see a
sustained break under 0.9881 (8 June low).
• The downtrend that was initiated at 1.0857 is expected to continue,
targeting lower levels, beneath 0.9582. This is favoured by the daily
structure, however, it is noted that a push back over 1.0300 will weaken
our view in favour of a neutral/bullish stance.
• Also noted, from a much longer term perspective, is a diamond top in the
weekly timeframe. However, a break under 0.9388 is required to trigger
this formation.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.0200, Objs: 0.9700/0.9300, Stop: 1.0200
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Upside limited to the 127.00 region.
• GBP/JPY has initiated a further leg higher in its corrective phase from
118.81, after breaking over 124.35.
• There remains scope for a further swing higher to complete the
corrective phase, before a resumption of weakness is anticipated. An
earlier break under 122.14 will suggest a resumption of weakness.
• An hourly rising wedge is now forming warning of a degree of
exhaustion. However, a final push to the 127.00 region remains viable.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 127.00, Objs: 125.00/120.00/117.00, Stop: 129.00
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Lower high sought for fresh weakness.
• EUR/JPY may have completed its corrective phase from the 95.60 low
at the beginning of June.
• Scope is now seen for the formation of a lower high near the 100.00
level, for the continuation of weakness from 101.63.
• We would need to see the re-capture of 102.13 to suggest that a major
low has formed, setting the stage for a return to 104.62 initially as the
111.43 decline is retraced.
• In the meantime the bias remains negative, due to our individual views
on USD/JPY and EUR/USD.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 100.05, Objs: 99.05/95.50/90.00, Stop: 101.05
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Bias remains negative. Better trade location sought.
• EUR/GBP has fallen beneath the 12 June low at 0.8012. However, in
doing so a failure to gain momentum warns of low participation.
• Although our bias remains negative higher levels and a better short-term
outlook are sought, ahead of trade formulation.
• With short-term structure being unusually messy it is deemed better to
either wait for a break under 0.7951, or to sell into strength. In a market
that appears to lack momentum, a degree of value must be sought.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Missed sell. Look to sell higher.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Remains in a tight range above 1.2000.
• EUR/CHF continues to trade sideways being supported by the SNB.
• While we could see further corrective activity over the short-term the
overall tone remains negative after breach of the February swing low at
1.2031 and while 1.2076 caps we see risk of an attack on retracement
support at 1.1905 initially as the major downtrend extends.
• Settlement above 1.2076 from here would suggest basing potential,
while re-capture of 1.2147 would confirm a base pattern calling for a
return to broken support at 1.2226 initially.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Stand aside.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 587219424
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Short-term corrective phase may yield a squeeze higher.
• Gold appears to be within the midst of a short-term corrective phase, with
scope for a squeeze higher to re-test the 1641.03 lower high.
• We also note the formation of a large daily triangular consolidation pattern, with the 1525.00 level acting as a base. This increases the importance of this level, if broken to the downside.
• With this in mind, we will look for a return to strength while above the
1526.97 low. Back under this level will turn the outlook decidedly bearish.
GOLD
Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 3 at 1560, Objs: 1620/1700/1790, Stop: 1540
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Rangebound for the last week.
• Silver is once again approaching the 26.07 level from where a recovery is
anticipated. A break under this level would not be anticipated to be long
lasting in nature, targeting the 20.00 level.
• The 26.07 level remains key to future short-term gains.
• Failure to hold onto the initial signs of momentum seen over recent days
now exposes the recent low at 26.7919 again.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at 27.8725
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 3 at 27.50, Objs: 28.50/30.00/31.50, Stop: 26.50
SILVER
Bijoy Kar, Senior Analyst, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,
including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
LEGAL TERMS
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 27 June, 2012
www.migbank.com
MIG BANK [email protected] www.migbank.com
4, avenue d’Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Tel.+41 58 721 90 00
Bjioy Kar Senior Analyst [email protected]
CONTACT
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