Dairy 2010

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    12 April 2010 SECTOR VIEW

    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of thi s document. 1

    www.mekongsecurities.com

    Developing a taste for dairy

    Appetite for powdered milk and yoghurt

    We are POSITIVE on Vietnams dairy sector. We expect it to maintain high-growthmomentum due to a growing customer base, low milk consumption per capita, rising

    disposable income and increasing health awareness among consumers. Distribution

    networks are expanding and dairy producers are launching aggressive advertising

    campaigns.

    The dairy sector, valued at VND21,275 billion (USD1.1 billion) in 2008, is among the

    fastest-growing in Vietnams non-discretionary consumer sector, with a CAGR of

    14.6% over the last eight years. We estimate the value of the sector will rise 9.5% per

    annum during 2010-13, while volume should increase at a 7% CAGR for the next four

    years.

    We see growth potential in powdered milk and yoghurt. Powdered milk, which makes

    up 13% of Vietnams dairy market, was the most attractive sub-sector during 2003-

    09, posting double-digit CAGR of 10.7% in volume and 16.6% in value. Powdered-

    milk producers benefit from their ability to pass on rising imported-material costs to

    end consumers. We expect the sub-sector to continue to offer strong growth

    potential. Euromonitor has projected CAGR of 14.43% in value for the sub-sector in

    2010-13. Yoghurt meanwhile accounts for 15% of the dairy markets value and

    includes health-conscious target consumers. The yoghurt sub-sectors value grew

    12.6% in 2009, and consumers seemed relatively insensitive to price rises. The

    CAGR in terms of value for the yoghurt sector could remain as high as 11.8% in

    2010-13.

    The sector faces supply and demand imbalances as domestic herds can only meet

    about 20% of total nationwide demand. Heavy dependence on foreign markets forinput materials creates a risk of margin compression due to fluctuating prices of

    imported dairy products. Strong brand loyalty towards larger producers and the low

    price elasticity of demand for milk products help mitigate this risk.

    We think multinational and domestic players will face tougher competition due to

    rising consumer power and a broader range of substitutes. Dairy producers are under

    pressure to improve their product mix as milk consumers become wealthier and more

    health conscious. We expect limited changes in the competitive structure within each

    sub-sector due to rising competition among existing players and relatively high

    barriers to entry. The dairy market is dominated by leading domestic company

    Vinamilk and Dutch Lady Vietnam, a subsidiary of FrieslandCampina. Each company

    holds around 37-39% of the total market size.

    We initiate coverage on Vinamilk (HOSE:VNM), Vietnams largest listed dairy

    producer, with a BUY rating, given the robust demand for dairy products, coupled

    with the companys strong market position and planned capacity expansion. Our

    blended valuation approach yields a price target of VND104,000 (USD5.45), a 20.2%

    premium to the closing price of VND86,500 (USD4.53) and provides an expected

    total return of 23.1% over the next 12 months. Our price target implies 15.5x FY10E

    PER and 15.7x FY11E PER, which is slightly higher than other domestic food and

    beverage (F&B) companies, but below that of regional dairy peers.

    Anh Dang(84 8) 3520-2050 - Ext : [email protected] H

    Ht

    Thu Vo(84 8) 3520-2050 - Ext: 8158

    [email protected]

    H

    Duong Pham(84 8) 3520-2050 - Ext: 8125

    [email protected]

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    SECTOR VIEW 2

    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    High growth momentum

    The dairy sector is among the fastest-growing industries in Vietnams non-discretionary

    consumer sector, with a CAGR of 12.8% between 2004 and 2009. We expect it to

    maintain high-growth momentum due to a growing customer base, rising disposable

    income and increasing brand awareness among consumers. Distribution networks are

    expanding and dairy producers are launching aggressive advertising campaigns. We

    estimate the value of the sector will rise 9.5% per annum during 2010-13, while volume

    should see a 7% CAGR for the next four years.

    Vietnam has recorded a sustainable GDP growth rate of more than 7% for the past five

    years and disposable income has increased to more than USD1,000 per capita. Such

    economic prosperity has fuelled demand for high-protein food, especially dairy products.

    GDP is projected to expand 7-8% annually for 2010-15, and GDP per capita is expected

    to reach USD1,800 by 2015.

    A rising population, rapid urbanisation and increasing penetration of milk consumption

    into broader age groups rather than the traditional newborn to 6-year-old group for

    powdered milk and 6-12-year-old group for traditional milk have helped expand theconsumer base for dairy products. Vietnams population is expected to rise 1.2%

    annually from 88.7 million in 2010 to 94.3 million in 2015. Moreover, there is a clear

    trend towards urbanisation in the country, with approximately 30% of the population

    living in cities, up from only 20% in the mid-1990s. Rapid urbanisation, coupled with

    increasing real income, has encouraged better nutrition and the incorporation of more

    animal proteins and processed foods in diet. Per capita animal protein intake has more

    than doubled since 1990. More importantly, Vietnams milk consumption per capita is

    among the lowest compared with international benchmarks, suggesting ample growth

    potential. In 2008, dairy consumption per capita was 12 litres/person/year, compared

    with the average 65 litres/person/year in Asia and 100 litres/person/year worldwide.

    The larger dairy producers have invested heavily in expanding their distributionnetworks and raising brand awareness through aggressive advertising campaigns.

    Dairy producers typically spend around 30% of their total sales expenses on

    advertising. Vinamilk spent VND127.4 billion on advertising and promotion in 2008,

    rising to VND181.2 billion in 2009, equivalent to 14% of the years total sales expenses.

    Dairy sector growth is correlated to improved health awareness and newly adopted

    milk-drinking habits among Vietnamese consumers. National and corporate campaigns

    to fight against child malnutrition as well as progressive consumer education have

    raised awareness of the importance of daily dairy consumption. Expanding product lines

    to target different demographics, including young female professionals and the elderly,

    have helped broaden the customer base for dairy products.

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    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    Chart 1: Dairy products: Population growth vs. volume growth

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    14.00%

    03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10F 10F-13F

    Fluid milk Powder milk Condensed milk Yoghurt Population

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Market segmentation

    The main sub-sectors of the Vietnams dairy market are: 1) fluid milk (plain milk,

    flavoured fluid milk, soy beverages); 2) powdered milk; 3) condensed milk; and 4)

    yoghurt, which is further segmented into drinking yoghurt and spoonable yoghurt.

    Fluid milk

    Fluid milk, at 51%, accounts for the largest share of the sector in terms of total value.Fluid milk consumption has increased 74.45% from 174.5 million litres in 2003 to 304.5

    million litres in 2009. The CAGR for the period is 9.74% in volume and 13.57% in value.

    Although volume grew at a decreasing rate of 7.41% in 2008-09, value growth remained

    high at 9.87%, reflecting the low demand elasticity, owing to improved health

    consciousness and rising disposable income. Euromonitor forecasts that the CAGR for

    fluid milk will drop to 6.12% in volume and 7.88% in value during 2010-13.

    SECTOR VIEW 3

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    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    Chart 2: Fluid milk: Sales by sub-sector Chart 3: Fluid milk: CAGR in volume and value

    98.3139.4

    172.2 182.1 191.7 200.7209.139.9

    54.8

    72.9 78.784.2 89.7

    95.1

    36.3

    46.4

    59.4

    64.670

    75.881.9

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    2003 2006 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F

    millionlitre

    s

    Fluid milk Flavoured fluid milk Soy beverages

    9.74%

    6.12%

    13.57%

    7.88%

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    14.00%

    16.00%

    2003-2009 2010-2013

    Volume grow th Value grow th

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Powdered milk

    Powdered milk accounts for 13% of Vietnams dairy market. It is the most attractive sub-

    sector, with double-digit CAGR of 10.7% in volume and 16.6% in value for 2003-09.

    Powdered milk producers benefit from their ability to pass on rising imported-material

    costs to end consumers. The relatively low price elasticity of powdered milk is driven by

    the pestering power of its target group of infants and young children as well as its

    expanding consumer base. The General Statistics Office estimates the population of

    newborn to 4-year-old children will increase 3.6% during 2010-15, compared with 0.6%

    for 5- to 9-year-old children during the same period. We expect this sub-sector to

    continue to offer strong growth potential, posting CAGR of 11.25% in volume and

    14.43% in value for 2010-13, as projected by Euromonitor.

    Chart 4: Powdered milk: Sales Chart 5: Powdered milk: CAGR in volume and value

    4.35.7 7.5

    8.1 8.7 9.3 9.94.3

    5.7

    8.39.5

    10.812.4

    14.3

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    2003 2006 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F

    '000tonnes

    Powder milk Flavored pow der milk

    10.67% 11.25%

    16.56%

    14.43%

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    14.00%

    16.00%

    18.00%

    2003-2009 2010-2013

    Volume grow th Value grow th

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    SECTOR VIEW 4

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    Condensed milk

    Despite its low nutritional content, condensed milk ranks second in terms of market

    share due to its popularity among Vietnamese consumers. Before the increase in

    disposable income, its low price point made it the nations favourite dairy product. The

    sectors annual growth declined to a modest level of 4.2% in volume and 8.75% in value

    during 2004-09 as consumers disposable income increased and they began switchingto more nutritionally rich dairy products. We expect condensed milk to witness a slightly

    higher CAGR of 6.25% in volume and 8.75% in value in the next four years as it is still

    preferred in rural areas, which account for more than 70% of the population.

    Chart 6: Condensed milk: Sales Chart 7: Condensed milk: CAGR in volume and value

    95.1106

    121.7128.4

    136.1145

    155.1

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    2003 2006 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F

    millio

    nlitres

    Condensed milk

    4.20%

    6.25%

    8.75% 8.75%

    0.00%

    1.00%

    2.00%

    3.00%

    4.00%5.00%

    6.00%

    7.00%

    8.00%

    9.00%

    10.00%

    2003-2009 2010-2013

    Volume grow th Value grow th

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Yoghurt

    Yoghurt accounts for 15% of the dairy markets value. Its target market includes health-

    conscious consumers. The sub-sectors value grew at a rate of 12.6% in 2009 as

    consumers were relatively insensitive to price rises. Spoonable yoghurt recorded a

    CAGR of 12.6% in 2003-09, outperforming drinking yoghurt, which saw an estimated

    annual gain of 7.3% in the same period. The presence of a wider variation of yoghurt

    products has increased their popularity. We expect drinking yoghurt to achieve higher

    growth rates than spoonable yoghurt due to changing consumer tastes. Volume CAGR

    for drinking yoghurt is projected to rise to 9.98% in 2010-13, while that of spoonable

    yoghurt is expected to decline to 10.4%. In terms of value, CAGR for the yoghurt sector

    should remain as high as 11.8%.

    SECTOR VIEW 5

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    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    Chart 8: Yoghurt: CAGR in volume and value

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    14.00%

    16.00%

    18.00%

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F

    Yoghurt Drinking yoghurt Spoonable yoghurt

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Dependent on imports to meet demand

    There were 72 dairy-processing companies in Vietnam in 2009. Total annual capacity

    for the sector currently stands at 796.2 tins of condensed milk, 101.5 thousand tonnes

    of whole milk powder, 778.3 million litres of UHT milk and 150.8 million litres of yoghurt.

    Despite recent capacity improvements, domestic supply can only meet approximately

    20-30% of the demand nationwide. This figure is significantly lower than the official

    target rate of 40% in 2010 as stated in the Ministry of Industry and Trades Decision No.

    167/2001/QD-TTg. At the end of 2009, the ministry decided to postpone its target to

    2025.

    Chart 9: Government planning (2010-25)

    350

    550

    934.5

    1344.7

    22

    3436

    40

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    2010 2015 2020 2025

    '000tonnes

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    %

    Raw Milk Supply Self-eff iciency rate

    Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mekong Securities

    SECTOR VIEW 6

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    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    The significant imbalance between supply and demand reflects issues associated with

    Vietnams herd development. The domestic herd is low in productivity, with the average

    milk per cow amounting around 1,700kg per year, significantly behind international

    standards. In comparison, the average is 6,200 kg for the EU, 8,400 kg in the US and

    3,300 kg in New Zealand. Although the size of the domestic herd has increased from

    113,200 heads in 2006 to 120,000 heads in 2009, dairy farmers find it difficult to

    compete with foreign suppliers due to rising animal-feed prices, high production and

    collection costs, and geographical and cultural constraints.

    The poor herd quality means Vietnam is dependent on foreign suppliers for milk

    ingredients. Milk and dairy products ranked fifth in terms of import turnover of agri-

    commodities in 2008 in Vietnam. Every year, Vietnam imports approximately USD545

    million worth of milk-related products, accounting for 5.8% of the total import turnover of

    agro-forestry-fishery products and materials.

    Chart 10: Milk and dairy product import turnover Chart 11: Import market share for dairy products (Jan-Nov 2009)

    170.8201.2

    278.9302.7

    462.2

    533.9

    442.0

    -

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov-

    09

    MillionUSD

    Holland,28.10%

    New

    Zealand,

    22.35%

    China,

    0.60%

    Others,

    37.05%

    U.S.,

    11.90%

    Source: GSO, Mekong Securities Source: AGROINFO, Mekong Securities

    Holland and the US maintain high growth rates in terms of turnover and market share

    among countries exporting milk and milk products to Vietnam, according to AGROINFO.

    Imported milk and milk products from Holland totalled USD136.3 million over the first 11

    months of 2009, up more than 25% compared with the same period the previous year

    and accounting for 28.1% of the total quantity of imported milk in Vietnam. Vietnams

    turnover of milk imports from the US totalled USD57.6 million, up more than 50% over

    the same period a year earlier, equivalent to a share of 11.9%. New Zealand ranked

    second in terms of import turnover, reaching USD108.4 million. New Zealands market

    share decreased to 22.4% in 2009 from 29.8% the previous year. The share of Chinese

    milk products made up only 0.6% of the total turnover over the first 11 months of 2009

    due to the melamine scandal.

    Prices on the rise

    Vietnams dairy products are among the most expensive in the world. The average cost

    of milk in Vietnam is USD1.40/litre, compared with USD1.30/litre in New Zealand and

    the Philippines, USD1.10-1.20/litre in Australia and China, and USD0.90/litre in the UK,

    Hungary and Brazil, according to Euromonitor.

    SECTOR VIEW 7

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    Chart 12: Retail milk prices in various countries (2008) (USD/litre)

    1.1

    0.5

    1.3

    1.4

    1.2

    1.3

    0.6

    0.9

    0.80.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1.4

    0.50.9

    -- 0.5 1.0 1.5

    China

    India

    Philippines

    VietNam

    Australia

    New Zealand

    Czech Republic

    Hungary

    PolandRussia

    Germany

    UK

    USA

    Mexico

    Brazil

    Source: Euromonitor

    Although prices of material milk worldwide dropped at the end of 2008, prices of finished

    milk products in Vietnam were on the rise, without showing any signs of a decrease.

    This indicates the low price elasticity of demand for milk products in Vietnam and

    relatively high brand loyalty. We expect further rises in prices of dairy products owing to

    increasing costs of imported milk powder as well as higher fuel and transportation costs.

    Chart 13: Whole milk powder: Global price (USD/metric tonne)

    -

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09

    Source: USDA

    AgroMonitor, a Vietnam-based agriculture research company, estimates Vietnamese

    milk prices to grow 12-17% yoy in 2010. It attributes the rise to: 1) rising global milk

    prices as the world economy recovers; 2) higher production costs; 3) rising sugar prices;

    4) continued supply-demand disequilibrium, leading to further hikes in milk prices; and

    5) fluctuating exchange rates having a negative effect on imported dairy products.

    Growing competition

    Although there are a large number of dairy brands in Vietnam, the market is dominated

    by Vinamilk, the leading domestic company, and Dutch Lady Vietnam, a subsidiary of

    FrieslandCampina. Each makes up around 37-39% of the total market. The level of

    competitiveness varies across sub-sectors. While players are moving out of the

    condensed milk sub-sector, other sub-sectors are seeing increasing interest from local

    and multinational brands, including Nestle, Abbott, Mead Johnson, Long Thanh and

    Moc Chau milk.

    SECTOR VIEW 8

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    Drinking milk

    Dutch Lady and Vinamilk are the leading players because both companies are pioneers

    in various drinking milk products, such as flavoured and UHT milk drinks. The two rivals

    benefit from their aggressive marketing and promotional campaigns as well as rapidly

    expanding distribution channels. However, national brands such as Long Thanh and

    Moc Chau milk pose a growing threat as consumers, especially in rural areas, couldswitch to more affordable brands if Vinamilk and Dutch Ladys products become too

    expensive.

    Chart 14: Liquid milk: Market share (2007)

    Vinamilk

    , 35%

    Dutch

    Lady,

    37%

    Others,

    28%

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Powdered milk

    The main players in the powdered milk sub-sector include domestic player Vinamilk and

    foreign brands such as Dutch Lady, Abbott, Mead Johnson and Dumex. Market shares

    range from 10-20%, reflecting the high level of competition within the sector and the

    lack of a clear dominant player.

    Chart 15: Powdered milk: Market share (2007)

    Abbott,

    18%

    Other ,

    23%

    Dutch

    Lady,

    20%

    Vinamilk,

    14%

    Mead

    Johnson,

    15%

    Nestle,

    10%

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Yoghurt

    Vinamilk holds the lions share of the yoghurt sub-sector, with a 55.8% market share. Of

    this share of the market, Vinamilk holds a 72.1% share for spoonable yoghurt and 8.5%

    for drinking yoghurt. Its dominant position in this niche market is a consequence of

    sizeable advertising, regular introduction of new products and a substantial R&D

    budget.

    SECTOR VIEW 9

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    Chart 16: Yoghurt: Market share (2007)

    Dutch

    Lady,

    12%

    Anco, 7%

    Others,

    25%Vinamilk,

    56%

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Condensed milk

    Vinamilk and Dutch Lady, which have well-established brands, dominate this segment.

    The segment typically targets low-income consumers who spend a large portion of their

    disposable income on food and are therefore generally quite price sensitive. Pursuant to

    changes in consumer preference towards liquid milk and yoghurt, we expect condensedmilk consumption to stabilise.

    Chart 17: Condensed milk: Market share (2007)

    Vinamilk,

    79%

    Dutch

    Lady,

    21%

    Source: Euromonitor, Mekong Securities

    Constraints for new entrants and small players

    We believe multinational and domestic players will face tougher competition due to

    rising consumer power and a broader range of substitutes. As milk consumers become

    wealthier and more health conscious, dairy producers are under pressure to improve

    their product mix to cater to more sophisticated customer needs. We expect limited

    changes in the competitive structure within each sub-sector due to rising competition

    among existing players and relatively high barriers to entry.

    Over the years, key players such as Vinamilk and Dutch Lady have invested heavily inexpanding their distribution networks nationwide. As a result, new entrants and small

    players with limited financial resources face mounting difficulties in maintaining

    market share.

    Table 1: Key players distribution points and outlets in Vietnam

    Distribution points Outlets

    Vinamilk 250 140,000

    Dutch Lady 150 100,000

    Nutifood 121 60,000

    Source: Vinamilk, Mekong Securities

    SECTOR VIEW 10

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    Aggressive advertising and promotional campaigns by major dairy producers have

    raised brand awareness among milk consumers. This, coupled with consumers

    reluctance to switch to new brands, is a major constraint facing newer players.

    Key players with long track records in Vietnam have gained a better understanding of

    the shopping habits and tastes of Vietnamese consumers. We believe it would take time

    for new entrants to build brand awareness and understand local consumers.

    Development strategy

    As stated in the National Dairy Development Plan, the government aims to increase

    domestic production to satisfy 36% of demand by 2020 and 40% by 2025.

    Dairy herd development

    In 2009, raw milk production from the domestic herd met only around 20-30% of total

    dairy consumption. In Vietnam, only 5% of the total number of dairy cattle is raised in

    farms of 100-200 heads; the rest is raised by individual households. By the end of 2009,

    there were 19,639 dairy farmers with an average of 5.3 cows per farm, indicative of

    quality issues within Vietnams domestic herd.

    Chart 18: Milk output vs. population (200615)

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015

    7880

    82

    84

    86

    88

    90

    92

    94

    96

    Dairy cattle ('000) Milk output ('000 tonnes)Population (m people)

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Development, Mekong Securities

    The government plans to increase the domestic herd to 200,000 heads in 2010,

    350,000 in 2015 and 500,000 in 2020. To make this plan feasible, the government

    encourages institutions and individuals to focus on crossbreeding dairy cows for better

    quality as well as offering interest-free loans and subsidies to farmers. Given the actual

    number of 120,000 heads in 2009, we believe the plan may prove to be too ambitious.

    Moreover, the development of the domestic dairy herd will face difficulties associatedwith price increases for cattle feed, higher production costs, unfavourable environmental

    conditions and relatively poor technology. We expect the Vietnamese dairy industry to

    remain heavily dependant on imported sources until at least 2020.

    Trade policy in the context of WTO integration

    Vietnam protects its indigenous dairy industry by tariffs on imports and duty quotas.

    According to a study by the International Research Centre on the level of trade

    protection in Vietnam, the dairy sector enjoys considerable benefits from governmental

    interventions with a nominal rate of protection (NRP) calculated at 22.6% (Sullivan,

    2002).

    Exporting countries to Vietnam are grouped in two categories:

    SECTOR VIEW 11

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    SECTOR VIEW 12

    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    WTO members for whom Vietnam applies most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs.

    Tariffs on manufactured dairy products range between 10% and 30% on raw

    material and pre-manufactured products, which include skim and whole milk

    powder.

    ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) members, for whom Common Effective

    Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) apply. CEPT tariffs for skim and whole milk powders arecurrently subject to 5% tariffs.

    Concerns

    As milk consumers become wealthier and more health conscious, dairy producers are

    under pressure to improve their product mix to cater to consumers needs. Recent

    surveys show an increasing number of consumers pay attention to product quality and

    prices. Consumers are willing to pay higher prices for dairy products from well-known

    international brands with greater perceived nutritional benefits. This creates pressure on

    local companies to improve the quality of their products.

    Quality control is one of the most important issues for dairy producers. In 2008, theVietnamese milk industry was adversely affected by the melamine scandals in China.

    Similar scandals could further damage the national dairy industry if consumers were to

    shift to more trusted international brands.

    Dairy producers are under great pressure to reduce their prices in the medium to long

    term, considering that Vietnams dairy is among the most expensive in the world.

    Moreover, a heavy dependence on foreign markets for input materials increases the risk

    of margin compression as prices of imported dairy products rise. A lower profit margin is

    also associated with the costly advertising and marketing campaigns initiated by various

    dairy producers.

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    Trade idea: BUY Vinamilk

    We initiate coverage on Vinamilk (HOSE:VNM), Vietnams largest listed dairy producer,

    with a BUY rating, given robust demand for dairy products, coupled with the companys

    solid market position and capacity expansion. Our blended valuation approach yields a

    price target of VND104,000 (USD5.45), a 20.2% premium to the closing price of

    VND86,500 (USD4.53). The price target offers potential total shareholder return of

    23.1% over the next 12 months. Our price target implies 15.5x FY10E PER and 15.7x

    FY11E PER, which is slightly higher than that of other domestic F&B companies, but is

    still below regional dairy peers.

    We believe Vinamilk will remain the premier growth company in the Vietnamese dairy

    sector. We expect it to weather the increasingly competitive condition in the industry,

    and enjoy impressive growth during the next two years in Vietnams largely under-

    penetrated dairy market. The companys skilled management, unparalleled brand

    recognition, extensive distribution channels, financial strength and superior product

    offerings should enable it to maintain its strong competitive position.

    The company is building a new milk and health drink factory that will offer additionalrevenue streams beginning 2012. Vinamilks unrivalled distribution network spans

    Vietnam and forms a sizeable barrier for competitors.

    In our opinion, Vinamilk offers an attractive buy-and-hold investment opportunity for the

    long term, with robust annual growth, impressive distribution, diversified products and

    significant market share.

    Table 2: Listed food and beverage companies

    Source: Bloomberg, Mekong Securities

    Ticker KEY PLAYERSPrice

    (VND)

    MarketCap

    (VNDbn)

    IndexWeight

    (%)

    Avg Vol30D

    (shares)

    ROE

    (%)

    ROA

    (%)

    P/E

    (times)

    P/B

    (times)

    ForeignOwnership

    HOSE:VNM VINAMILK 86,500 30,539 6.92 222,407 42.53 32.80 7.20 3.97 46.17%

    HOSE:KDC KINHDO CORP 66,000 5,293 1.22 329,835 20.85 13.23 9.79 1.96 25.30%

    HOSE:MPCMINH PHUSEAFOOD 33,000 2,310 0.52 88,241 22.98 10.55 9.82 2.15 13.60%

    HOSE:SBT TAY NINH SUGAR 13,600 1,921 0.14 793,763 13.85 12.57 7.55 0.96 7.38%

    HOSE:VHC VINH HOAN CORP 44,100 1,558 0.35 13,352 35.88 13.77 8.56 2.50 23.24%

    HOSE:LSS LAM SON SUGAR 41,600 1,228 0.28 161,060 24.78 16.95 7.83 1.77 9.45%

    HOSE:ANV NAM VIET CORP 21,800 1,430 0.33 594,728 -11.59 -7.29 - 0.78 6.34%

    Average 43,800 6,326 1.39 314,769 21.3 13.2 8.46 2.01 18.80%

    SECTOR VIEW 13

  • 8/6/2019 Dairy 2010

    14/14

    SECTOR VIEW 14

    Developing A Taste For Dairy

    Notes