Jochen Schwarz & Holger MaiwaldBauhaus-Universität Weimar, Earthquake Damage Analysis Center

Damage and loss prediction model Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesbased on the vulnerability of building types

4th International Symposium on Flood Defence:

Managing Flood Risk, Reliability and Vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

MotivationMotivation

Residential buildings

1.706 Mio. €

Forestry and agriculture79 Mio. €

Infrastructure other sectors

111 Mio. €Emergency

management136 Mio. €

Content529 Mio. €

Governmentalinfrastructure

928 Mio. €

Communalinfrastructure1.287 Mio. €

Commercial sector

1.420 Mio. €

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Distribution of losses in Saxony after the flood 2002*

* after Sächsische Staatskanzlei (2002)

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Building type: masonryDamage grade: D2

Primary influence factor:Inundation level

Building type: masonryDamage grade: D2-3 (slight settlements)

Primary influence factor:Inundation level

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Reasons for the studyReasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

In addition to Flood Action Side, the impact of structural parameters (Resistance Side) has to be considered.

Can the procedures developed for the Risk Analysis of Earthquakes be adapted to Flood Risk Analysis procedures?

If “yes”: Development of a Damage and Loss Prediction Model

based on an Engineering Evaluation System of Buildings

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Building type: clayDamage grade: D5

Special influence factor:Flow velocity and circulations

Building type: masonry with clay mortarDamage grade: D5

Primary influence factor:Inundation levelFlow velocity

„Step 1“

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Inundation level Flow velocity DurationBuilding type

Building type: clay Building type: masonry

Inundation levelFlow velocityDuration Building type

„Step 1 + 1/2“

Reasons for the study Reasons for the study

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Inundation level Flow velocityDuration Building type

Inundation levelFlow velocity Duration Building type

Building type: masonry (clay mortar)Building type: masonry

Basic elementsBasic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

0 20 40 60 80 100

Durchfeuchtungsgrad df [%]

Dam

age

Gra

de D

i

S1

1

2

3

4

5S8S7

S6

S10 S9

S5

S2S3

S4

Bauweise Überflu-tungshöhe

VerweilzeitFließ-geschwin-digkeit

Einflussparameter

Inundation level [%]

Building type

Inundation level

Duration Flow velocity

Influence parameter

Influence: high moderate low

First approachClassification of different damage cases (samples S1 - S10)

Basics of the StudyBasics of the StudyEngineering Evaluation System of BuildingsEngineering Evaluation System of Buildings

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Data baseData base

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Dataset 1: EDAC – questionnaireSaxony August 2002Baden Württemberg 1978 - 1994

Bavaria September 2005Saxony April 2006

Dataset 2: MEDIS – telephone interview

Basic elementsBasic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

×Demolition of building required

××Replacement of structural elements

×××Replacement of non-structural elements

×××Replacement of extension elements

××××Cleaning of penetrated elements

Rehabilitation measures

Collapse of major parts of the building×Partial failure of primary structural elements×××Settlements

××Major cracks / deformations in structural walls and slabs

××××Slight cracks in structural elements

××××Impressed doors and windows

Structural damage

××××Contamination (oil, chemicals)

×××××Pollution (mud, excrements …)Chemical damage

××××Penetration of supporting and non-structural walls and the floor slabs

Building physical damage

D5D4D3D2D1

Damage grade DiObserved effect / measureCriteria

„New Step“

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Damage grade D1

Drawing Example

No structural damageSlight non-structural damage

Only penetration and pollution

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Damage grade D2

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Drawing Example

No to slight structural damageModerate non-structural damage

Slight cracks in supporting elementsImpressed doors and windowsContaminationReplacement of extension elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Damage grade D3

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Drawing Example

Moderate structural damageHeavy non-structural damage

Major cracks and/or deformations in supporting walls and slabsSettlementsReplacement of non-structural elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Damage grade D4

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Drawing Example

Heavy structural damageVery heavy non-structural damage

Structural collapse of supporting walls, slabsReplacement of sructural elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Drawing Example

Damage grade D5

Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades Basic elements: Definition of Damage Grades

Very heavy structural damageVery heavy non-structural damage

Collapse of the building or of major parts of the buildingDemolition of building required

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Dam

age

grad

e D

i

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Dam

age

grad

e D

i

Dataset 1 „EDAC“ Dataset 2 „MEDIS“

Main building type (masonry) Other building types

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Dataset „EDAC“Dataset „EDAC + MEDIS“

Masonry buildings

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Classification of building types in vulnerability classes

Most likely vulnerability classProbable range of scatterRange of less probable, exceptional cases

Classification of building type Flood vulnerability class HW-VC

Main building type short A B C D E

Clay Clay

Prefabricated PF

Framework FW

Masonry MW

Reinforced concrete RC

Flood resistant designed buildings FRD

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Flood vulnerability class HW-E

Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen:Planen und Bauen von Gebäuden in hochwasser-gefährdeten Gebieten

Bauhaus-Universität WeimarInstitute for Foundations and Soil Mechanics

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

Building types Flood vulnerability classes

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgf)

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Dam

age

grad

e D

m

PF

FW

Clay

MW

RC

1

2

3

4

5

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Inundation level hgf [m]

Dam

age

grad

e D

m

HW-A

HW-B

HW-C

HW-D

Dm - Mean damage gradehgf - Inundation level over ground floor

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage grades Dm Buildings (without specification)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Specific Vulnerability Functions of type: Dm = f (hgl, vfl)

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5Specific energy height H [m]

Dam

age

grad

e D

m

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5Specific energy height H [m]

Dam

age

grad

e D

m

H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl - Inundation level over ground level vfl - Flow velocity

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 1 2 3 4 5Inundation level hgl [m]

Loss

[%]

Losses (MDR) and impact parameters

H = hgl + (vfl²/2g) hgl

0

25

50

75

100

125

0 1 2 3 4 5Specific energy height H [m]

Loss

[%]

Inundation level hgf

Loss

[%]

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Basic elements Basic elements

SDF 1b: Example for HW-C, with cellar

SDF 2: Example for floor number n, with cellar (under preparation)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Specific Damage Functions (SDF i)

Inundation level hgf

Loss

[%]

1 floor

2 floors

3 floors

4 floors

D5

D4

D3

D2

D1

Case studiesCase studies

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

1

23

Case studies

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Study areas in Saxony

1 – Eilenburg2 – Döbeln3 – Grimma

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Case studies Case studies

Observed damage grades Re-Interpretation

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

Mean damage grades in the ATKIS- land use areas (MDm):

Study area 1: Eilenburg

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Case studies Case studies

Single Buildings ATKIS-land use areas

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Mean Damage Ratio(MDR) in [%]

Study area 2: Döbeln

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 >100

no damage observed

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 >100

no damage observed

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Case studies Case studies

Consideration of the inundation level; Dm = f (hgf)

Consideration of inundation level and flow velocity; Dm = f (hgl, vfl)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

no damage observed no damage data available

Mean damage grades in the ATKIS- land use areas (MDm):

Study area 3: Grimma

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Case studies Case studies

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

62.258.5Residential building stockMesoscale3

149.4145.0Total building stock

71.861.9Residential building stockMicroscale2

166.3146.0Total building stock

89.983.3Residential building stockMicroscale1

EDAC –loss model

ReportedLosses in [Mio. €]ReferenceLevelStudy area

ConclusionsConclusions

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Conclusion (I) Conclusion (I)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Result: Damage and loss prediction model based on an engineering evaluation system of buildings including:

- a unified definition of global structural Damage Grades (Di) - Specific Flood Vulnerability Classes (HW-A to HW-E)- Specific Vulnerability Functions (SVF) of type: Dm = f (hgf) Dm = f (hgl, vfl)

- Specific Damage Functions (SDF) of type:Loss [%] = f (hgf, HW-VC, n, poc)Loss [%] = f (hgf, Di,)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Conclusion (II) Conclusion (II)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

The Results and developed Tools:

- enable the reinterpretation of damage and loss parameters, are suited for damage and loss prediction

- enable the identification of critical zonesare suited for disaster management decisions(short- and long-term)

Damage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding typesDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of bDamage and loss prediction model based on the vulnerability of building typesuilding types

Thanks for

Contact:http://www.edac.biz

Project ManagementFunding Coordination

RIMAX-MEDIS