Dan M. Kahan Yale University & 10^3 others Two science communication puzzles

Dan M. KahanYale University

& 10^3 others

Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES-0922714 Annenberg Center for Public Policy Skoll Global Threats Fund

www.culturalcognition.net

Two science communication puzzles . . .

Puzzle No. 1: Do U.S. farmers believe in climate change?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Human caused Naturally caused No warming

Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades”

N = 1,885. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, June 2014 (YouGov). CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means.

N = 1,737. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014. CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means. Subjects classified in relation to “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.78).


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Human caused Naturally caused No warming

Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades”

N = 1,885. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, June 2014 (YouGov). CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means.

> avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right

N = 1,737. Annenberg Public Policy Center & Cultural Cognition Project. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014. CIs are 0.95 confidence intervals for estimated general population means. Subjects classified in relation to “Left_Right,” a continuous political outlook scale formed by aggregating responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.78).





Rep. Frank Lucas (R. Okla.)


Rep. Frank Lucas (R. Okla.)



Oops!


Climate-change resistant chicken!


Puzzle No. 2:

Puzzle No. 2: Do people who disbelieve in evolution like science documentaries about evolution?


N = 1012. Nationally representative sample From Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015).

True False

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

The “missing audience hypothesis . . . ”


En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity


En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity


En

gag

emen

t

“Natural audience hypothesis”

“Missing audience hypothesis”

Science Curiosity

?

a cool show . . .


YIF Clip: Origins of color vision


En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience

“Missing audience”


En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience


Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA)

I am curious about the world in which we live I find it boring to hear about new ideas I would enjoy visiting a science museum at the weekend I would like to be given a science book as a present I get bored when watching science programs on TV

State of the art “Science Curiosity”/“curiosity”

“Science Curiosity Index”

1. Measures: mixed strategy

2. Psychometric properties

3. Validation . . .

Sample self-report item

Sample self-report item

Sample (self-report) behavior

Sample (self-report) behavior

Performance measure




3. Validation . . .

BSCIENCE

science curiosity

“Science Curiosity Index” (SCI)

science curiosity

Read science book in last yrVisited science lecture in last yr




3. Validation . . .


En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience



En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience


Self-report engagement

Behavioral engagement

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment (“OSI”)

OSI_1.0 OSI_2.0

“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment (“OSI”)

Relia

bilit

y (1

-[1/I])

Ordinary science intelligence

2PL Item resonse theory scaling

98th percentile50th percentile 86th percentile14th percentile2nd percentile

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

-2 -1 0 1 2

Ordinary Science Intellience

Eng

agem

ent

Engagement with clip: SCI vs. OSI

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

-2 -1 0 1 2

Eng

agem

ent



Science Curiosity Index


SCI

OSI

Scale percentile

Eng

agem

ent

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

1st 16th 50th 84th 99th


Science Curiosity Index

bars denote 0.95 CIs


En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience



En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience



En

gag

emen

t

Science Curiosity

Existing audience


SCI: group “differences” . . .

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5Science Curiosity Index

high religiosity


low religiosity

M = 0.10 (0.03) M = - 0.09 (0.03)

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Abortion procedure

Abortion procedure

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

Individualism Communitarianism

Environment: climate, nuclear

Guns/Gun Control

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

HPV Vaccination

Gays military/gay parenting

Gays military/gay parenting


hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians

egalitarian communitariansegalitarian individualists

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

cats/stupid birds

cats/stupid birds

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Individualism Communitarianism



Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

The “missing audience”????!!!!!

Dalets are pro-science/technology


N = 1012. Nationally representative sample From Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015).

True False

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

SCI: group “differences” . . .


high religiosity


low religiosity

M = 0.10 (0.03) M = - 0.09 (0.03)

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

eng

agem

ent

-2 -1 0 1 2Science Curiosity

Engagement: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

eng

agem

ent



Evolution believer

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

eng

agem

ent


Evolution believer

Evolution disbeliever


-1

-.5

0

.5

1

en

ga

ge

me

nt

-2 -1 0 1 2science interest

Evolution believer



shaded regeions represent 0.95 confidence zones for estimated means.

Science Curiosity

Engagement deficit: Evolution “belief” vs. cultural style ...

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

e_

irt


linear regression/0.95 CI

-1

-.5

0

.5

1

e_

irt


linear regression/0.95 CI

Evolution believer


Everyone else

dalets

Enga

gem

ent I

ndex

OSI OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1

pro

ba

bili

ty o

f re

qu

est

ing

fu

ll sh

ow


Evolution believer


Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

pro

bab

ility

1st 16th 50th 84th 99thScience Interest (percentile)

Request full show: Evolution “believers” vs. “disbelievers”

Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence

Evolution believer


Was the information “believable”?

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g


0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g


“I found the information in the documentary convincing.”

“It seemed like the documentary supplied strong evidence of how humans acquired color vision.”

Science Curiosity Science Curiosity


Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g


0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g



Evolution believer Evolution believer




Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g


0

.25

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.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g



Evolution believer


Evolution believer





Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

OSI item response profile

OSI item response profile

0

.25

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.75

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prob

abili

ty o

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eein

g


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prob

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eein

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Evolution believer


Evolution believer





Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g


0

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prob

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eein

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Evolution believer


Evolution believer





Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science IntelligenceOrdinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g


0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g



Evolution believer


Evolution believer





Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science IntelligenceOrdinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

0

.25

.5

.75

1

prob

abili

ty o

f agr

eein

g

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

0

.25

.5

.75

1pr

obab

ility

of a

gree

ing

-2 -1 0 1 2OSI

Evolution believer


Evolution believer


Ordinary Science Intelligence Ordinary Science Intelligence

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

SCI, OSI, Evolution disbelief & engagement

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

pro

bab

ility

1st 16th 50th 84th 99thScience Interest (percentile)

Evolution believer


Science Curiosity (percentie)Colored bars reflect 0.95 level of confidence

Pro

b. o

f req

uest

ing

full

docu

men

tary


Documents

Dan M. Kahan Yale University & 10^3 others Two science communication puzzles