DEVELOPMENT OF A METODOLOGY FOR

DANGEROUS GOODS TRANSPORT RISKS

ASSESSMENT

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INTRODUCTION

A software based on a geographical information system has been

developed to identify and quantify the risks associated to the transport

of Dangerous Goods

The goal is to compare all available itineraries and chose the one

representing the lowest risk

This tool is currently solely used on selected routes by Total

Petrochemicals. It has not been deployed in other Total branches.

The risk model methodology is still under continuous development

The data and examples shown in this presentation are not based on

actual transport data and are solely given in the purpose to illustrate the

under development methodology

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Objective :

For sensitive products, develop a model representing all potential itineraries, quantify transport accident impact on selected targets and define the lowest risk route

Perimeter :

Valid for all types of Dangerous Goods

All European movements by Road, Rail and Inland Waterways, including multi-modal

Calculate impact on populated areas, river and ecological zones

PROJECT SCOPE

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1. Evaluation of the hazard associated to the Dangerous Goods

An exposition range is defined (Material Factor – distance from itinerary):

Proportional to the product danger code (UN definition) & CMR (R45)

Amount of product transported, type of container, transport specifications

For each city impacted on the itinerary, system calculates :

Total number of persons potentially exposed (buffer around route)

Maximum exposure for an accident (circle with MF radius) – worst case scenario

Pollution of river and impact on ecological areas (ZNIEFF)

Interaction found when river or area is within a predefined distance (parameter that can be

modified in function of the product) of itinerary

METHODOLOGY APPLIED

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2. Accident Probability assessment (for the whole itinerary and for each city). Formula function of:

Generic probability associated to each mode & class type (rail, highway,

expressway…)

The distance calculated (segregation by class)

The probability of container rupture (depending on equipment design)

The reliability (accident record…) of Hauler

Number of expeditions per year

Corrective factor depending of the sinuosity, number of tunnels, bridges, spots with high accidentology and marshalling yards for rail

METHODOLOGY APPLIED

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EXAMPLE OF DATA GENERATED

NAME OF CITY

DISTANCE

WITHIN CITY

LIMITS

POPULATION

BUFFER

WORST CASE

SCENARIO

ACCIDENT

PROBABILITY

CITY POP.

DENSITY

Bonneuil-sur-Marne 5,2 4696 2618 2,16E-09 2283

Bry-sur-Marne 3,9 8651 4071 1,64E-09 3575

Champigny-sur-Marne 4,3 16251 5846 1,81E-09 5252

Chelles 3,5 9951 5115 1,47E-09 4594

Chennevières-sur-Marne 3,6 4695 4050 1,51E-09 2748

Gagny 4,5 14820 4691 1,89E-09 4214

Limeil-Brévannes 2,8 2477 3750 1,17E-09 3327

Neuilly-sur-Marne 5,5 8578 4319 2,30E-09 3752

Noisy-le-Grand 2,1 2230 3982 8,68E-10 3527

Saint-Maur-des-Fossés 4,4 8175 4180 1,87E-09 5239

Sucy-en-Brie 4,6 7135 2916 1,93E-09 2620

Valenton 2,5 3050 2409 1,05E-09 2009

Villeneuve-Saint-Georges 5,8 14333 3644 2,43E-09 3274

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EXAMPLE OF SOCIETAL CURVES

1,E-07

1,E-06

1,E-05

1,E-04

1,E-03 1,E-02 1,E-01 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05

POPULATION IMPACT

CU

MU

LA

TE

D A

CC

IDE

NT

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

ALTERNATE ROUTE CURRENT ROUTE

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CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Use of TeleAtlas database to help visualize the surroundings of an

accident : access to critical information (points of interest)

Search engine of the location based on street name research or GPS

coordinates when available

System gives automatic list of points of interest within a selected radius

of the accident location (includes type of building, phone number..).

Export of all generated data on GoogleEarth.

Simplified interface easily accessible by all personnel without in depth

knowledge of the software

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CONCLUSIONS

We are interested in having your opinion on this approach as well as

understanding the initiatives you might have developed on this field.

We are also open to partnership that could improve the methodology or

gives us access to a larger base of geographical & societal data

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION