DEVELOPMENT OF A METODOLOGY FOR
DANGEROUS GOODS TRANSPORT RISKS
ASSESSMENT
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INTRODUCTION
A software based on a geographical information system has been
developed to identify and quantify the risks associated to the transport
of Dangerous Goods
The goal is to compare all available itineraries and chose the one
representing the lowest risk
This tool is currently solely used on selected routes by Total
Petrochemicals. It has not been deployed in other Total branches.
The risk model methodology is still under continuous development
The data and examples shown in this presentation are not based on
actual transport data and are solely given in the purpose to illustrate the
under development methodology
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Objective :
For sensitive products, develop a model representing all potential itineraries, quantify transport accident impact on selected targets and define the lowest risk route
Perimeter :
Valid for all types of Dangerous Goods
All European movements by Road, Rail and Inland Waterways, including multi-modal
Calculate impact on populated areas, river and ecological zones
PROJECT SCOPE
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1. Evaluation of the hazard associated to the Dangerous Goods
An exposition range is defined (Material Factor – distance from itinerary):
Proportional to the product danger code (UN definition) & CMR (R45)
Amount of product transported, type of container, transport specifications
For each city impacted on the itinerary, system calculates :
Total number of persons potentially exposed (buffer around route)
Maximum exposure for an accident (circle with MF radius) – worst case scenario
Pollution of river and impact on ecological areas (ZNIEFF)
Interaction found when river or area is within a predefined distance (parameter that can be
modified in function of the product) of itinerary
METHODOLOGY APPLIED
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2. Accident Probability assessment (for the whole itinerary and for each city). Formula function of:
Generic probability associated to each mode & class type (rail, highway,
expressway…)
The distance calculated (segregation by class)
The probability of container rupture (depending on equipment design)
The reliability (accident record…) of Hauler
Number of expeditions per year
Corrective factor depending of the sinuosity, number of tunnels, bridges, spots with high accidentology and marshalling yards for rail
METHODOLOGY APPLIED
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EXAMPLE OF DATA GENERATED
NAME OF CITY
DISTANCE
WITHIN CITY
LIMITS
POPULATION
BUFFER
WORST CASE
SCENARIO
ACCIDENT
PROBABILITY
CITY POP.
DENSITY
Bonneuil-sur-Marne 5,2 4696 2618 2,16E-09 2283
Bry-sur-Marne 3,9 8651 4071 1,64E-09 3575
Champigny-sur-Marne 4,3 16251 5846 1,81E-09 5252
Chelles 3,5 9951 5115 1,47E-09 4594
Chennevières-sur-Marne 3,6 4695 4050 1,51E-09 2748
Gagny 4,5 14820 4691 1,89E-09 4214
Limeil-Brévannes 2,8 2477 3750 1,17E-09 3327
Neuilly-sur-Marne 5,5 8578 4319 2,30E-09 3752
Noisy-le-Grand 2,1 2230 3982 8,68E-10 3527
Saint-Maur-des-Fossés 4,4 8175 4180 1,87E-09 5239
Sucy-en-Brie 4,6 7135 2916 1,93E-09 2620
Valenton 2,5 3050 2409 1,05E-09 2009
Villeneuve-Saint-Georges 5,8 14333 3644 2,43E-09 3274
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EXAMPLE OF SOCIETAL CURVES
1,E-07
1,E-06
1,E-05
1,E-04
1,E-03 1,E-02 1,E-01 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05
POPULATION IMPACT
CU
MU
LA
TE
D A
CC
IDE
NT
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
ALTERNATE ROUTE CURRENT ROUTE
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CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Use of TeleAtlas database to help visualize the surroundings of an
accident : access to critical information (points of interest)
Search engine of the location based on street name research or GPS
coordinates when available
System gives automatic list of points of interest within a selected radius
of the accident location (includes type of building, phone number..).
Export of all generated data on GoogleEarth.
Simplified interface easily accessible by all personnel without in depth
knowledge of the software
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CONCLUSIONS
We are interested in having your opinion on this approach as well as
understanding the initiatives you might have developed on this field.
We are also open to partnership that could improve the methodology or
gives us access to a larger base of geographical & societal data
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION