Candidate Plans: A: Balanced Economics B: Balanced
Environmental D: Blended Benefits Natural Flow Plan E: Natural Flow
Interest Specific: Ontario Riparian Plan Recreational Boating Plan
Reference Plans: Plan 1998 Plan 1958DD Plan 1958D International
Lake Ontario St. Lawrence River Study
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Net Economic/Ecologic Benefits of Alternative Plans Avg. annual
net benefits ($US million)Plan 1958DDPlan APlan BPlan DPlan E Net
Benefits0.007.526.486.52-12.30 Shoreline Damages
0.00-0.62-1.110.32-25.96 Navigation0.000.412.202.314.13 Recreation
Boating0.004.23-0.582.04-4.64 Hydroelectric0.003.505.971.8214.16
Municipal Water0.00 Environmental Index1.001.061.351.104.04
Wetlands Index1.001.021.441.171.56
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Stakhiv Plan selection rationale for IUGLS Used Study
Guidelines as basis for evaluation criteria Developed simple MAUT
model for replicable evaluation Plan D is robust selection under
wide range of weights other plans vary in rank Plan E is worst
performing under most weights Gave extra weight to equity
considerations (disproportionate loss, geographic distrib, etc.)
Plan A, B, C close- selection depends on weights (I.e. preferences
for particular attributes)
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Fuzzy Set Risk-Cost Analysis for alternative dredged material
sites Multiattribute utility analysis High degrees of uncertainty
and unknowns Use of weights, probabilities CAD confined aquatic
disposal UAD unconfined aquatic disposal CDF Confined disposal
facility UFL Upland disposal facility UPS Upland protected
source
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Final RiskCost Tradeoff Site Risk (0.5) Human Risk Fish Risk
Shellfish Risk Terrestrial Risk Ecol Risk (0.3) (0.7) (0.5) (0.7)
(0.3) (0.7) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) (0.7) (0.3) Cancer Noncance r Fish
Burial Fish Toxicity Shellfish Burial Shellfish Toxicity
Terrestrial Burial Terrestrial Toxicity Habitat Loss Level 1Level
2Level 3Level 4 Cost
Goal Objective Criteria Sustainable DevelopmentReduce
Vulnerability Econ.Envir.EquitySWBSafetyReliability Mgmt. Measure $
Costs & Benefit W.Q. Habitat Diversity Income Distribution
Relocate Population at Risk Frequency of Failure MM 1 MM i MM n
Structural / infrastructure Legal / legislative Institutional /
administrative Regulations (land use, zoning, standards) Education
Financial incentives, subsidies (+) Taxes, tariffs, user fees (-)
Research and development Market mechanisms Technology development
Management (Adaptive) Measures