I, Allan Davison declare that in the past 3 years:

I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*: No

I have done consulting work for the following companies*: No

I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*: None

I or my family hold individual shares in the following*: None

*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment

1

Declaration of Conflict of Interest

Making hunger history?

2

Where are we?

Where are we going?

Much better as a result of MDGs, but in 2015 hunger won’t yet be history

Hunger on a global scale will disappear, in 2 or 3 more 15y plans. New initiatives

We now know what works. 5-10 nations will keep pledges. None will forgo trade rules that favour rich at the expense of poor

What’s working, what’s not?

33 www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition

please disturb!

Allan Davison

adavison@sfu.ca

Make hunger history?

Aid isn’t workingTrade for profit instead

Trade barriers. Fair trade & aid

Population outstrips food supply

We give more than anyone!

Trillions wasted! - 1 b still starving

MDGs won’t be achieved

Most aid corrupt dictators Corrupt multinationals

2008 recession

Never promised 0.7%

“Trade not aid”

Broken promises

Malthus is wrong

4

V little is wasted

Yeah – ½ what EU gives!

Profit motive hasn’t worked - aid is needed

“They” didn’t cause it

You did so!

Wor

ld G

DP

$PPP

per

ca

p (e

st) 1

500-

2100

1500 2000$0

$5,000

$10,000

India to 1500

China + Indiato 1850

WesternEuropeto 1945

USA + WestEurope

since 1945

http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

Manifest destiny of world - wealth

China +India 2040?

5

Number of malnourished world-wide

61970 1980 1990 2000 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000M

illio

ns u

nder

-nou

rishe

d(F

AO

kca

l / h

ouse

hold

)

FAO data

water-carrier

See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD, IFPRIUNICEF 2009

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf

kcal per household surveyed

World% undernourished

71970 1980 1990 2000 201015

33%

17%same data

22%

14%

1970 2010 2015 target 2030 FAO est

0

2000

4000

6000

8000 FedMalnourished

Number fed & under-nourished worldwide

8

14%

Prediction

6%11%

Target

33%

88

millions

9

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdfhttp://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf

Percentage stunted

60%

40%

20%

AfricaAsia

Latin Am

Last 2 or 3 points are projections

1980 & every 5 years

10

Paying for total strangers to eat?

Not us, not if it goes to corrupt

dictators” }

10

11

http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities

“Development aid”, not spent on poverty or development

Clawed back by unfair tradeEmergency aid Debt relief Refugee, Tied to benefit rich

“Phantom aid”, the wasted 47%Refers toODA, not

MDGs

Corrupt heads of state: Rich...

Series1

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Accept “bribes” to give trade concessions that impoverish their people

Accept personal & campaign “contributions” peddling influence. Could stop bribery at home & abroad by abolishing secret a/c

... & Poor

12

100s

bur

eauc

rats

200s

MNC

s

10s

corr

upt d

icta

tors

1000

s pr

esid

ents

,

PMs,

bur

eauc

rats

in ri

ch

wikipedia LockheedSwiss

Air

We know what works•Transparent & accountable , open bids•Partnerships not paternalism•Goals, objectives, timed milestones•Strategies revised annually by both partners•Externally monitored. No political pressure•Sustainable emphasis on poverty, agriculture•Serves recipient needs, not donor / ideology•Firm long-term commitments: MV, Grameen

Unrealistic? Let’s see ...13

• Grameen Family of social enterprises

• Billionaire philanthropists & foundations

• The Millennium Village project

• Passionate & influential voices for change

• Scientists & students bring energy to future

• Instant spread of innovations: agric, educ, &c

Beyond MDGs: amazing changes

14 www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition

15

Passionate renegades

15

The End

16

adavison@sfu.cawww.sfu.ca/global-hunger

adavison@sfu.cawww.sfu.ca/global-hunger

16

year2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2008 GDP/capita:Developing countries 3.93%

Developed countries -0.03Advantage = 3.96%

USDA data

17

% GDP/cap pa for poor nations cf % for rich

Number stunted (Unicef Data)

18

http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf

mill

ions

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.htmlhttp://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs

Most MDGs will be mostly met worldwide

19

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.html

http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml#mdgs

“Phantom aid”: 47% is “wasted”• Evaporating aid - promises … broken as soon

as cameras turn elsewhere• $ flow benefits the rich nations – tilted trade• Aid with strings attached, contingent on UN

votes, WB loans, unfair trade• Dumped food surplus local farm economy• Money given by corrupt rich people to

“corrupt dictators”20

UK banks in Nigerian

corruptionPaul Collier: The bottom billion20

Emergency aid isn’t intended for development

http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities