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Dr. Roger S. PulwartySenior ScientistNOAA
Heat WavesStorm Track VariationsMadden-Julian Oscillation
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Decadal VariabilitySolar VariabilityDeep Ocean CirculationGreenhouse Gases
Tornadoes SnowstormsHurricanes Typhoons
3YEARS
10YEARS
30YEARS
100YEARS
SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY
30DAY
S
1 DAY
1 SEASON
Changing Conditions
Weather-Climate-a Continuum and an adaptation deficit…..
Early warning....resource allocation…. Infrastructure Design
Marine EcosystemsOcean surface upper full
Atmosphere region global
Atmospheric chemistry Ice sheets
Land surface
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Definition of Climate Services (EU 2015)
Transformation of climate-related data –together with other relevant information- into customized products such as projections, forecasts, information, trends, economic analyses, assessments, counseling on best practices, development and evaluation of solutions , and other services in relation to climate that may be of use for society at large
Includes data, information and knowledge that support adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management .
• Motivation for climate services steadily developing over many years, as:
– Awareness of importance of climate on many sectors of societies has grown (agriculture, food security, water, health, energy, tourism, etc)
– Impacts of extremes have been increasingly recognized (human and economic); growth in disasters losses
– Relevance of managing climate risk is being seen increasingly as a central development issue (now and future)
– Preparedness and associated use of climate information has become a mainstream issue of disaster management
• Thus, initiatives have emerged at different scales, especially– National and regional climate services– Global Framework for Climate Services– Sector-based initiatives (WHO, CGIAR/CCAFS, etc)
Context
Land Atmosphere Emergency Ocean Climate Security
The Copernicus System (European Union and European Space Agency)
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Sectoral Information System
Climate indices relevant to the various EU sectoral policies
Copernicus Climate Change (C3) service
C3S architecture: the SIS
Water management Energy
OCWWS -- CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
Regions
Regions and Field
Tools
EMC
Field
External Partners
CSD
CPC
Drought Monitor, Drought Outlook,
Hazards Assessment, etc.
ENSO, NAO, etc. Forecasts
Probabilistic Forecasts
Region
Field
Partners
IRI, CDC, others
CPC CSD
Regional Partners
Approved Downscaling
“Best Practices”
Local Downscaled Probabilistic Forecasts (including
river forecasts)
Regional and Local Probabilistic Forecasts (mostly
non-CPC parameters)
Ensemble Guidance
Regional TestbedsRFC Testbeds
Approved Compositing
“Best Practices”
NWS Climate Forecast Operations Concept
NWS Climate ServicesRole of Regional & Field Offices
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Climate Services for Latin America
Visor de mapas con información actualizada a medida que esta se
genera
Información de referencia. Mapas
temáticos
South and Central America Drought Observatory and Land Degradation Climate Risk Management and Adaptation - Guidelines 1
2Drivers for Risk Management• The insufficient awareness by some societal and economic actors of their
vulnerability to future climate change;• Lack of relevant and timely products and services• Inappropriate content and format in which information is offered• Inadequate business model for provision of climate services
Adaptation (IPCC)• “The adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or
expect climate stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”
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Global Framework for Climate ServicesEnable better management of the risks of climate variability and change, and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.
Energy
Disaster Risk Reduction Health
Water Food Security
Components of the GFCS
,
User Interface
,
User Interface
Climate Services Information System
Observations and Monitoring
Research, Modeling and
Prediction CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
Energy
• WFP, FAO, WMO
• Roving climate seminars for farmers;
• Participatory integrated climate services for agriculture
• UNISDR, WFP, IFRC, WMO
• Climate Risk Early Warning Systems (CREWS)
• NORAD programme IFRC trained vulnerable communities in Tanzania and Malawi
• Global Water Partnership
• Help Desk on Integrated Drought Management launched with 33 expert organizations
• UNESCO’s African Flood and Drought Monitor
• WHO• Joint office on
Climate and Health (WMO WHO)
• NOAA Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN),
• Climate Services for Health guidance
• WMO• Developed a
GCF Concept Note for Colombia, Moldova, and Tanzania
The Chain of Climate ServicesServices
Interna onal orNa onal Climate Data
Providers
Na onal ClimateServices
Regional ClimateServices
Products
Observa onal Data.Global Model Projec ons.
Global sectorialinforma on.
Tailored Informa on ofNa onal Relevance.Regional Projec ons.
Mi ga on and Adapta on
Advises on Good Prac ce.Customized Mi ga on and
Adapta on Measures.Development of Solu ons.
Educa on of Users.
Customers
Na onal Climate ServicesInterna onalOrganiza ons
Mul na onal Corpora ons
Regional Climate ServicesNa onal Governments
Professional Organiza onsConsul ng Firms
NGOs
Local End-usersSmall Enterprises
State GovernmentsMunicipali es
Brasseur 2014
Global infrastructure
GPCLRFs
Regional Climate CentersRCCs
• Global Producing Centres-Long Range Forecasts
• GPCLRF & RCC inventory of GFCS-relevant climate data and products (ECVs) Not discoverable or organized in systematic form
Regional Outlook Fora worldwide
18https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/regional-climate-outlook-
products
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Sectoral Applications
s
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User Interface Platform
National/Sectoralusers
Specialized data centres National data centresGlobal data centres
Climate Data Centres
National climate centresGlobal Producing Centres
Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction Centres
Regional Climate Centres
NationalClimate Forums
Regional usersGlobal users
Regional systems National systemsGlobal systems
Climate Observing Systems
RegionalClimate Outlook
Forums
The Climate Services Information System
Way Forward: CSIS Deployment Network
Global• WMO/GFCS• Climate Services SMEs • Climate service
organizations• Global users
Regional• Regional Climate
Centers• Regional Climate
Outlook Forums• Regional users
National• National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services
• Academia• National users
CST: generating climate services information
Technical Notes
• Anomalies, percentiles maps• Time series graphs• Diagrams ( e,g hovmoller )• Trends, return periods…
Bulletins &
Reports
• Precipitation outlook map• Temperature outlook map• Hazard, vigilance, risk
maps
Briefs Synthesis
Statements
• hazards, potential impacts and response measures
• Contingency plan update• Hazards, warning, Advices
Global Framework for Climate Services:Challenges
Partnerships : mechanisms to enhance interactions between climate service users and providers are not always well- developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed
Quality : operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications sciences, and the spatial-
temporal resolution of information is often insufficient to match user requirements.
Accessibility : many countries do not have any “climate” services but all countries have scope to improve access to such services
Capacity : many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and manage climate-related risks and opportunities the current availability and quality of climate observations
and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe
Regional Context for Climate Services24
Variable climatic, economic and social conditions make the delivery of climate services a challenge…. regional cooperation is important• Encompasses a very wide variety of climates from Tropical to
Arctic, with wide variety of weather and climate• The main weather and climate impacts are hurricanes, drought and
flooding. The agricultural sector as well as transport and tourism are greatly impacted by severe weather and climate events.
• Economic conditions are variable including economies of the USA and Canada, as well as the developing countries in the Caribbean, such as Haiti.
• Developed countries provide a range of different support across the region
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Climate Outlook Forums: Good geographical coverage...
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Very effective way to communicate with decision makers…· Great successes with Regional COFs (RCOFs) and National COFs (NCOFs) already in place in the Region (CARICOF,
FCCA, Mexico, others). · There is a large range of engagement methods used based upon cultural differences regionally and nationally resulting in
improved understanding of climate services by stakeholders · Lessons learned and potential lessons could be applied at the regional, sub-regional and national levels Expand current
Outlook Forums to provide training in climate services for Users
Priority actions emphasize cooperation· Funding for observers to
participate in COF activities from other parts of the Region or other Regions COF activities (providing training, forum dialogue, etc.).
· Develop lessons learned and recommendations from cross-COFs exchanges
· Need to improve capacity issues to communicate Climate Watches
GFCS 2016-2018Three yearOperational and Resource Plan
Global infrastructure
GPCLRFs
RCCs
• C3S portal into past, present and future ECVs globally
• WIS to catalogue all• GDPFS for
cascading system
SERVICE DELIVERY AT COUNTRY LEVEL
Indicators for Global Policy Processes and joint action e.g. unfccc, sdgs, sendai
Global
Regional
national
Outputs FLEXIBLY GENERATED ATMULTIPLE levels:
Global
Regional
national
Outputs FLEXIBLY GENERATED ATMULTIPLE levels:
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Global
Regional
national
Outputs FLEXIBLY GENERATED ATMULTIPLE levels:
SERVICE DELIVERY AT COUNTRY LEVEL
Value-added AT COUNTRY LEVEL
Prediction, projec
tion and
Delivery m
echanismsClimate monitoring
And assessment
Observations and Climate data management
Climate information for adaptation and risk management
Capacity development
United Nations system level• WMO climate reports formally
welcomed by UNFCCC – More country and regional
monitoring and reporting needed to inform national policies and to enrich the global synthesis
• ENSO bulletin informs United Nations joint action– Full operationalization
of Global Seasonal Climate Update for regular release pending
CSTClimate Services Toolkit
About CSTGuidelines
ToolsCapacity DevelopmentApplication Exemplars
Data
HelpCST User ForumManaging
DataAnalyzing Climate
Monitoring Climate
Forecasting &
Verification
Projecting Futures
Tailoring Information
Climate Services Tools provide access to best practices in accessing, mining, and using information for improving climate services and supporting climate-sensitive societal challenges
Tools Standards and Specifications
Current status of availability and access to data and products from CSIS entitiesAvailability of data and products (Non-exhaustive list)
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Climate change projections
CMIP561 models20-200 kmhistorical run: 1850-2005nominal timescaletime period: 2100 and
beyondtime resolution : daily
CORDEXSeveral global/regional models14 domains12-50 kmnominal timescaletime period: until 2100time resolution : daily
present
Paleoclimatology proxiesCRU , NOAA
Reconstructed variablesCRU , NOAA
More than 10 types of proxies (corals, insects,
pollen, tree rings, .. .)
S2S A2D1850100
Frequency : Daily to monthly
Monthy/seasonal LRFGlobal13 GPCLRFs maps2 Lead Centers data 2.5° 2.5° APCC
hindcasts 20-30 yrsIRI skill scores
Frequency : MonthlyMonthy/seasonal LRFRegional8 RCCs maps3 RCC-Networks data 30 km
Frequency : QuarterlyUpdatesGlobalGSCU (Trial)El Niño/La Niña Update
Frequency : Once or twice per year
Probabilistic outlook and consensus statementRegional National19 RCOFs NCOFs
T2m, RR, SSTs, MSLP, T850, Z500
T2m, RR
Major circulation
features
T2m, RR
Frequency : Sub-daily , daily or monthlyIn situ dataGlobal Regional NationalGHCN-Daily RBSN BOM CDO 90 000 stations 4 000 stations 16 000 stations
Climate extreme indicesETCCDI: 27 indices for more than 100 countriesICA&D: > 50 indices for more than 15 000 stations
Gridded data and Remote sensing gridded merged data dataCRU: 0.5° 0.5°
EUMETSAT satellite-basedGPCP : 1.0° 1.0° WDC-RSAT data few kmCMAP : 2.5° 2.5° NOAA NCEI: radar data few km
Atmospheric measurements6 GAW WDCs: > 1 400 stations
Reanalysismore than 10 global reanalysis : > 100 kmERA-Interim , ERA-15 , ERA-40 , NCEP-NCAR , JRA-55 , …dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis : CORDEX , CaRD10regional reanalysis : NARR , ASR
Graphical toolsENACTS IRI Map Roommaps maps, graphics ,data: > 30 years, 4-5 km grid animations, data
ClimatView WMO WWIS
station monthly T2m, RR station normals T2m, RR1982-present, > 2 500 stations 1 900 stations
More than 200 variables available from stations
10-50 km
FORECASTS
CLIMATE VARIABILITY TIMESCALE
WEATHERTIMESCALE
CONTEMPORARY PAST
HISTORICAL PAST
PROJECTIONS
PREHISTORICAL PAST
CLIMATE CHANGE TIMESCALE
Frequency : Annual
Annual to Decadal predictionsGlobalGPC-ADCPLC-ADCPglobal mapsvariables averaged over year 1 and years 1-5datatime resolution : dailyhindcast data
UpdatesGlobalGA2DCU (Concept)
T2m, RR, SLP, MOC
Major circulation
features
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Country level
Capacities, needs and requirements from stakeholders and
Members
Weather • Climate • Water 38
GFCS Activities
Flagship Activities
• Regional Coordination in West Africa
•Malawi and Tanzania
•Dominica, Costa Rica
Regional workshops for the most vulnerable countries
South East Asia, Caribbean, SWPI, Latin America, SEE (November), MENA (TBD)
National Consultations Belize, Burkina Faso, Chad, Dominica, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Papua New Guinea, Kiribati, Tanga
Climate Services Projects
Country Area Targeted Climate ServicesBhutan Agriculture Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictionBurkina Faso Disaster Risk Reduction Sub-seasonal flood forecasting, Early
warning systemDominica Disaster Risk Reduction Early warning system on hydroclimatic
extremesMoldova Agriculture Historic information, climate monitoring,
LRF, projectionsPapua New Guinea
Agriculture LRF, crop yield forecast
Peru Disaster Risk Reduction Flood and drought forecasting
Tanzania DRR
Disaster Risk Reduction Flood and drought forecasting, risk maps, Early warning system implementation
GFCS Adaptation Programme in AfricaPhase II
Outcomes
– Enhanced capacity of NMHS to provide climate services
– Strengthened use of climate information by vulnerable communities for food security and livelihoods
– Strengthened capacity of health professionals to use climate information for public health preparedness and resilience to climate related health risks
– Increased use of climate and weather information by vulnerable communities to improve disaster risk reduction in vulnerable communities
GFCS Adaptation Programme in AfricaPhase II
Select activities
– Launch the NFCS and strengthen TANDREC and TWG CS to coordinate climate services in the countries ( e.g deploy experts to support countries in uptake of climate services toolkit). ENACTS in Malawi.
– Strengthen connections with user interface platforms established in Phase I (WFP Planning and Review Days, WFP Radio Listening Hubs, Red Cross volunteer community exchanges, and Climate and Health Core Teams at the Ministries of Health, integrate climate information into district component of National Health Information System )
– Tanzania target districts: Kiteto, Longido, Kondoa , Dodoma, Arusha, Morogoro , and Dar Es Salam
– Malawi target districts are Kasungu, Salima, Lilongwe, Balaka, Zomba , Phalombe , Chikwawa and Nsanje
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Climate Services: A 5-point plan of action • Conduct comprehensive country baseline capacity
assessments for the development of climate services;
• Support NMHSs to engage in a national consultation process for climate services and develop action plan;
• Develop National Action Plan (map needs against existing initiatives at national/regional level);
• Organize action plan endorsement by government and partners, and begin implementation of action plan; and
• Launch National Frameworks for Climate Services, including monitoring and evaluating impact.
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Envision an Informed Society Anticipating and Responding to Climate and its
Impacts…such as • The number of water restriction days are few and far between because a
community uses reliable information about the likelihood of extreme droughts for planning.
• Your home is powered by efficient, reliable renewable energy sources, supported by a suite of short and long-term environmental forecasts such as Wind Surface Forecasts for wind turbines.
• Public-Private sector industry-- spawning new jobs and supporting a green economy -- grown up around the core products and information generated by National Climate Services, much like the establishment of the private sector weather industry grew up around weather services
• Your nation’s and communities security and environment are enhanced because reliable climate change information clearly shows areas of vulnerability due to changes in food and water availability, climate-related health issues, coastal sea level rise, and other impacts of climate, and the nation acts upon this information.
45What is your vision?
Thank you!