1

2

3

4

5

6S XDegrees

toHell.....

Four Years to a Prosperous Future

oror

Six

Degrees

to Hell

E. Ortega

A. N. R. Costa

Laboratory of Ecological Engineering

Food Engineering SchoolState University of Campinas

Four Yearsto a

Prosperous Future

or

Progress of Science Science since Babylon

The Expansion of Capitalism

Competitive advantage is attained when larger and more efficient factories produce more goods to be sold in a

growing market

Mental ModelEconomic Progress

finds the best conditions to develop

in production and distribution systems

ruled by the free market where the reinvested profits

make the labor and the capital

increasingly productive

The Expansion of Capitalism•The Growth of the Gross Product (GNP) Maximizes the Human Welfare

Mental Model

•Each Event Regarding Scarcity of Resources Triggers the Development of Substitute Ones

•The Concerns about the Environment Health are Important, but they Should Balance with the Requirements of the Economic Growth, if a High Way of Living is to be Kept

•Enterprises and Free Market Forces will Allocated People and Resources for a Better and Superior Use

The Problems Cannot Be Solved Within the Boudaries of the Mentality that Generated

ThemAlbert Einstein

Industrial Revolution

The Expansion of Capitalism

Metamorphosis: ...A complete change of form, structure, or substance, as transformation by magic or witchcraft.

- Random House Dictionary

KeyIndustries

Linkages

Desplacements of Craft

Work

Import Substituti

on

ExportMarkets

Sprouting

LowProductivity

LowWages

Ripening

HighProductivity

HighWages

Dual Economy

Temporary Key Phases of an Industrial RevolutionSource: Taylor, K. S.

http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns (

Meg

ato

nn

es)

10,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

5,000

1950

0

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

GW

P 1

99

5 U

S$

Tri

llio

ns)

Data Source: Adapted from Environment Canada Indicators Website

Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGWP

Profits

Rent Productio

n

Income/Demand

Investment

Purchases

Rent

Pro

fits

Early Industrial Capitalism, with Landrents

Wages

Workers

Landlords

Capitalists

Labor(Capital)

Exports

Goods

Low Productivity Sectors

High Productivity Sectors

Flows of Goods and Labor During Dual Phase EconomySource: Taylor, K. S.

http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, 1996

Labor(Consumer Goods)

15001000

20001900 2100

2

4

6

8

10

600

400

200

800

1000

ppm

Worl

d P

op

ula

tion

in

B

illion

s

CO

2

Con

cen

trati

on

6.5 billion, 2007

9 billion, 2050

Multinacional

CorporationsInformation

Age

Industrial Revolution

Green Revolution

Enlightenment

Population and CO2 Concentration

1100 Years

* Does not Exist Naturally and is Human Generated

Greenhouse Gas

Chemical

Formula

Pre-Industrial

Concentration

1994 Concentrati

on

Percent Increas

e

Human Source

Carbon Dioxide

CO2278 ppm 358 ppm 30% Fossil Fuel

CombustionLand Use ChangeCement Production

Methane CH4700 ppb 1721 ppm 240% Fossil Fuels

Rice PaddiesWaste Dumps

Nitrous Oxide

N2O 275 ppb 811 ppb 150% FertilizerIndustrial ProcessesFossil Fuel Combustion

Sulfur Hexafluoride

SF6* 0 0,032 ppb Dielectric Fluid

The Expansion of Capitalism Industrial Revolution

The Expansion of Capitalism Industrial Revolution

Revolução Industrial

The Expansion of Capitalism

What and Who Makes the Weather?

Lessons from the Past

What is the Present

Condition?

• Tectonic Causes– Landmass Distribution

• Continental Drifts

– Underseas Ridges Activity• Sea Floor Spreading

• Astronomical Causes– Elliptical Orbit of the Earth

• 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes

– Wobble in Earth’s Orbit• 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%

– Solar Energy Output• 100,000 Year Cycle

• Atmospheric Causes– Heat Retention

• Greenhouse Effect

– Solar Reflectivity• Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice

Caps

What is their Value for the

Future?

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Today

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere Are at a Higher Level than for

400,000 Years

Part

s p

er

Million

of

Carb

on

D

ioxid

e

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

Years before the PresentSource: Co-operative Research Centre for

Greenhouse Accounting, 2001

Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago

Vostok Ice Core DataNational Geophysical Data

Center

Years Before Present (x 1000)

Tem

pera

ture

(Deg

. C

+/-

N

orm

al)

Carb

on

Dio

xid

e(p

art

s p

er

million

)

-10

-8

-6

-4

0

2

140 160

-2

80

60

40

20

1201000

180

200

220

240

280

280

300

Ch

an

ge in

Tem

pera

ture

(º

C)

Thousands of Years Before Present

2

0

-2

-4

18 16 14 12 12 8 6 4 02

Little Ice Age

Holocen Maximum

What and Who Makes the Weather?

Lessons from the Past

What is the Present

Condition?

• Tectonic Causes– Landmass Distribution

• Continental Drifts

– Underseas Ridges Activity• Sea Floor Spreading

• Astronomical Causes– Elliptical Orbit of the Earth

• 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of Equinoxes

– Wobble in Earth’s Orbit• 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%

– Solar Energy Output• 100,000 Year Cycle

• Atmospheric Causes– Heat Retention

• Greenhouse Effect

– Solar Reflectivity• Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice

Caps

What is their Value for the

Future?

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Today

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the Atmosphere Are at a Higher Level than for

400,000 Years

Part

s p

er

Million

of

Carb

on

D

ioxid

e

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

Years before the PresentSource: Co-operative Research Centre for

Greenhouse Accounting, 2001

Note: Civilisation Begun 7,000 – 10,000 Years Ago

Vostok Ice Core DataNational Geophysical Data

Center

Years Before Present (x 1000)

Tem

pera

ture

(Deg

. C

+/-

N

orm

al)

Carb

on

Dio

xid

e(p

art

s p

er

million

)-10

-8

-6

-4

0

2

140 160

-2

80

60

40

20

1201000

180

200

220

240

280

280

300

Ch

an

ge in

Tem

pera

ture

(º

C)

Thousands of Years Before Present

2

0

-2

-4

18 16 14 12 12 8 6 4 02

Little Ice Age

Holocen Maximum

The Present Impact

Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly

temperature increases.

Summary of Main Findings

A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible

influence on many physical and biological systems.

Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic

drivers.Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of possible increases in

global average temperature. Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and

projected future climate change, but on a limited basis.

The Present Impact

A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently

occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.

Summary of Main findings

Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses.

Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation.

A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate

change.

C 1999 Addison Wesley Longman Inc.

The Present ImpactBiological

NAM

355

455

94%

92%LA

53 5

98%

100%

EUR

355

28,115

94%

89%AFR

5 2100%

100%

AS

106

8

96%

100%

ANZ

6 0

100% -

TER

764

28,586

94%

90%

PR*

120

24

91%

100%

MFW**

1 85

100%

99%

GLO

765

28,671

94%

90%

0

600 400 200 0

Millions of Years Ago

Extinction Rate

Permian Extinction

s

Number of Families

Cretaceous

Extictions500

1500

1000

2500

2000

Nu

mb

er o

f Fam

ilies

( )

100

80

60

40

20

0

Physical

Percentage of significant changes

consistent with warming

Number of significant

observed changes

Number of significant observed changesPercentage of

significant changes

consistent with warming

What is the CurrentConsensus?

The Future Impact

More specific information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors concerning the nature of future impacts, including for some fields

not covered in previous assessments.

Summary of Main findings

More specific information is now available across the regions of the world concerning the nature of

future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments.

Impacts due to altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events

are very likely to change.

Some large-scale climate events have the potential to cause very large impacts, especially after the

21st century.

The Future Impact

Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures

increase.

Summary of main findings

Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already

unavoidable due to past emissions.

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could

impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways.

• Delphic Oracle?• Nostradamus Next Door?• Prophecies Already Coming True• A Secret Surviving Manual or a Global Warning?• Refuges in Arctic or Life a Little Bit Warmer?

A Little Bit Warmer?

Windows into a Changing World

If 6 Degrees of Cooling Nearly Wiped Us in the Past, Might Six Degrees of

Warming Have Similar Effect?

1

2

3

4

5

6

Starting the Heating

1ºC

1

2

3

4

5

6

The Heat Goes On

2ºC

1

2

3

4

5

6

Feedback To The Hell

3ºC

1

2

3

4

5

6

In To The Hell 4ºC

1

2

3

4

5

6

Reborn in Hell

5ºC

1

2

3

4

5

6

Anthropocene Mass Extinction

6ºC

Is There a Climate Policy ?DEGREE CHANGE

TEMPERATURE IN CELSIUS

ACTION NEEDED CO2 TARGET

One Degree 0.1 - 1.0ºC Avoidance Probably not

Possible

350 ppm (*)

Two Degrees 1.1 – 2.0ºC Peak Global Emission by 2015

400 ppm

Threshold for Carbon-Cycle Feedback?

Three Degress

2.1 – 3.0ºC Peak Global Emission by 2030

450ppm

Threshold for Siberian Methane Feedback

Four Degrees 3.1 – 4.0ºC Peak Global Emission by 2050

550 ppm

Five Degrees 4.1 – 5.0ºC Allow Constantly Rising Emission

650 ppm

Six Degrees 5.1 – 6.0ºC Allow Very High Emissions

800 ppm

(*) Today’s Level is 380 ppm

The Cosmic Perspective?

Open Systems

The Present Condition Imposes a Different and Urgent Vision

Guiding the Future

Giant Shoulders?

Odum

Lovelock

Forrester

Cohen

Lynas

Flannery

IPCC

Dealing with a Changing Future

The end of the future as is now believed

Moving Targets

The Dimensions of the Crisis

Knowing the Truth

Speed of Correction

How Wide is the

Window ?

Conditions to (Re) ActCatalytic

Self Organization

Degraded Systems

Endangered Zones

Resilience and Homeostasis

Healthy SystemsSupporting Transition

Pointing Places

Local Strategies for Global Changes

All Places All Levels

Managing Changes

What to Do?What Resources ?

Science Guiding Light

Finite Resources and Capacity of Adjustment

Economy Pointing Arrow

Revealing Exceeding Resources

Emergy Modeling and Accounting

Politics Talking into Consensus

Technology Building Solutions

Interactions Establishing Sinergy

Future Around the Corner Who Leads the

Establishment of a New Order

?

A New Order

Humans

Ecosystems

A New Order Energy Diagram Approach

Possible Utopias

Utopia 1: a place of ideal perfection in laws, government, and social conditions 2: an impractical scheme for social improvement

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary, 2004

Limitations Feasible Utopias

States of Living

Life Style

Size of the Planet

Local Resources

• http://www.distance-ed.bcc.ctc.edu, Accessed on may, the 5th 2008 – 22:38h

References