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Delayed Childbearing and Childlessness in Britain: the 1958 and 1970 Cohorts Compared. Roona Simpson Centre for Research on Families and Relationships University of Edinburgh [email protected] RGS-IBG Conference, UPTAP August 2006. Context – Fertility Decline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Delayed Childbearing and Childlessness in
Britain: the 1958 and 1970 Cohorts Compared
Roona SimpsonCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
University of [email protected]
RGS-IBG Conference, UPTAPAugust 2006
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Context – Fertility Decline
• Dramatic changes in fertility patterns in most advanced Western nations in recent decades, although important differences both between and within countries. At the beginning of the 21st century, below-replacement fertility is the norm in the developed world.
• Delayed childbirth, in particular the postponement of first births, related to smaller family sizes and increased childlessness, all of which contribute to overall fertility decline.
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Context – deferred childbirth
Centre for Research on Families and Relationships
Chart 1: Fertility Rates: by age of motherSource: Social Trends 35, ONS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Under 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Age of woman
Liv
e b
irth
s p
er
10
00
wo
me
n
1971
19811991
2001
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Chart 2: Childlessness at age 40, Selected Birth Cohorts
Source: ONS Birth Statistics, Series FM1 33
0
5
10
15
20
25
1920 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1964
Birth Cohort
Per
cent
age
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Context –Theoretical Perspectives
Second Demographic Transition (van der Kaa 1987, Lesthaeghe 1995)Individualisation Theory (Beck and Beck-Gernsheim 1995; Giddens 1992)
Risk Aversion Theory (Oppenheimer 1994; Hobson et al, 2004; Lewis 2006)Gender Equity Theory (McDonald 2000)Changing Gender and Generational Relations (Irwin 2000, 2005)
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Childlessness by Sex, early 30s (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1958 1970
Birth Cohort
Men
Women
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Childlessness by Social Class Background (%)
01020304050607080
Men Women Men Women
1958 1970
Father's Social Class at Birth
Per
cen
tag
e
I & II
III NM
III M
IV & V
No FatherFigure
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Childlessness by Educational Attainment (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
No Qualifications School LevelQualifications
Tertiary Qualifications
Birth Cohort
Per
cent
age
Men 1958 Men 1970 Women 1958 Women 1970
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Women's Employment by Parental Status (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
FT Emp PT Empl L H F FT Emp PT Empl L H F
1958 1970
Employment Status and Birth Cohort
Mothers Childless Women
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Childlessness by Marital Status (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Men Women Men Women
1958 1970Marital Status
Never Married
Married
PreviouslyMarried
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Childlessness by Partnership Status (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Men Women Men Women
1958 1970
Current Partnership Status
Single NeverMarriedCohabiting
Married
PreviouslyMarried
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Female Childlessness by Partnership Status
0
20
40
60
80
100
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33Age in Years
Never Married Single Previously Married Cohabiting
Never Married Cohabiting Previously Married Single
Married
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
Male Childlessness by Partnership Status
0
20
40
60
80
100
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Age in YearsNever Married Single Previously Married CohabitingNever Married Cohabiting Previously Married SingleMarried
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
References
• Beck, U. and Beck-Gernsheim, E. 1995, The Normal Chaos of Love, Oxford: Polity Press
• Giddens, A. 1992. The Transformation of Intimacy. Polity Press, Cambridge. • Hobson, B. and Olah, L. Sz. (2006), ‘The Positive Turn or BirthStrikes?: Sites of Resistance to Residual Male Breadwinner Societies and to Welfare State Restructuring’, Recherche et Previsions no.83 (March) [Special Issue: Kind and Welfare State. Reforms of Family Policies in Europe and North America], CNAF• Irwin, S. 2000, ‘Reproductive Regimes: Changing Relations of Inter-
dependence and Fertility Change’, Sociological Research Online, 5 (1).• Irwin, S. 2005, Reshaping Social Life, London: Routledge• Kiernan, K. (1998) ‘Parenthood and Family Life in the United Kingdom’, Review of Population and Social Policy, No.7, pp:63-81
Centre for Research on Families and RelationshipsCentre for Research on Families and Relationships
References (Cont.)
• Lesthaeghe, R. 1995. ‘The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation’. In.: K. O. Mason and A.-M. Jensen (eds.) Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford, Clarendon Press
• Lewis, J. 2006. ‘Perceptions of Risk in Intimate Relationships’, Journal of Social Policy, 35 (1):39 - 57
• McDonald, P. 2000. ‘Gender Equity In Theories Of Fertility Transition’. Population and Development Review 26(3): 427-439.
• Oppenheimer, V., 1994. ‘Women’s Rising Employment and The Future of The Family in Industrialised Societies’, Population and Development Review, 20 (2):293-342.
• Van de Kaa, D. J. 1987. ‘Europe’s Second Demographic Transition’, Population Bulletin 42 (1).
• Watkins, S. C. (1993) ‘If All We Knew About Women Was What We Read In Demography, What Would We Know?’ Demography, 30 (4): 551-577.
