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Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire. Marcus Grupp Holly Pedrick Policy, Performance and Communications. Purpose. To provide an update as to the changes underway in the Bucks population To consider how the information can be used to shape services. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Buckinghamshire County Council
Demographic and Deprivation Change in Buckinghamshire
Marcus GruppHolly Pedrick
Policy, Performance and Communications
Buckinghamshire County Council
Purpose
• To provide an update as to the changes underway in the Bucks population
• To consider how the information can be used to shape services
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: births
• TFR increasing – 2.1 children per woman (England similar)• Increases FR for all women key child bearing age (not under 20s and 40+)• Rising births – 11% higher since 2001 (+600 yr)
•
1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.2
2001 2004 2007 2010
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
TFR
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: births - deaths• Births - constant TFR (2.10) = 500 extra births annually • Deaths - constant 4k per year• Natural increase in population due to more births than deaths
Natural population change
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
1991 2001 2011 2021
Births (main proj)
Births (2.10 TFR)
Deaths
Natural Change
Nat. Change (2.1)
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: age structure of population
More pensioner
houses
Less families
19,838 more
people (33%)
8,031 less young people
(-6%)
4,519 less people (-1%)
Modelled births (could be 5k higher with 2.1 TFR)
Lessyoung people
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: housing
• Household size = falling– 2.47 people per house (2011) to 2.32 (2026)– 2.32 causes current population (510k) to fall by 21k (4%), but – 15k new builds allocated creates a net rise 4k people (514k) by 2026
• Uncertainty in AVDC - 15k homes to keep workforce constant (2006-2031)– extra 4,500 to 13,500 homes not currently allocated (AVDC)
• Number of houses affects net migration ...
Buckinghamshire County Council
Drivers of population change: migration
• Lots movement in population (6% of Bucks population)– UK migration – 27k move in / 26k leave– Overseas migration – 3.9k move in / 3.7k leave
Net Migration
Buckinghamshire County Council
What does this mean for Bucks…
• Small population increase - 1.2%– aging population– ‘low’ number of new builds
• Uncertainty around CYP numbers– 9k less 0-15’s (1.9 TFR)– No change 0-15’s (2.1 TFR)
• Housing– 15,000 less working age– More allocations by AVDC?
Uncertainty due to TFRs and houses builds
*
Clear aging population
% change - 2011 to 2026
Buckinghamshire County Council
Population Changes• Increasing populations:
– Urban– stable births and deaths– net in-migration increase– house builds 2.5 x higher
• Decreasing populations:– rural– aging population, more deaths– falling births – Lowest rate of house builds
Get rid of decimals on legend
Locality differences
-12% to -7%
3% to 7%
2011 to 2026
Buckinghamshire County Council
Deprivation Issues and People at Risk• 9% of children live in families in receipt of out of work benefits (9.4k)
– More families experience income deprivation in areas classified as deprived by IMD
• 6% of children receive free school meals (4.4k)– Worse educational outcomes for these pupils
• Overall educational attainment is 65%– Most affluent ACORN groups 2.5x higher than least affluent groups
• Higher proportion of BME population in deprived areas – Worse education outcomes overall (Early years and KS1, 2 and 4) and
youth offending
Buckinghamshire County Council
Deprivation Issues and People at Risk• 7.4% of babies born were classed as low birth weight (national average 7.6%)
– Higher percentage of babies with low birth weight in IMD most deprived areas• Increasing birth rate
– Birth rate twice as high among the IMD most deprived areas than least deprived areas
• People who are affluent are less likely to become deprived– Current HP / MM areas previously classed as HP, MM, SS/PP, SF and UP
• 356 Looked After Children (LAC) in Bucks (2010)– LAC 2x higher in IMD deprived LLSOA’s (0.62% v’s 0.31% of under 18s)– 60% LAC from Moderate Means / Hard Pressed areas (4x ave. MM, 7x HP )
• 45% of children have experienced bullying– Pupils from Hard Pressed and Urban Prosperity (town) areas are most affected
• 90 young women referred to ‘RU Safe’ (2009-2010)– Higher risk of sexual exploitation for those who go missing frequently or live in care
11
Buckinghamshire County Council
Index of Multiple Deprivation (2010)
AylesburyHigh Wycombe
Seven IMD Domains1. Income Deprivation2. Employment Deprivation3. Health Deprivation and Disability4. Education, Skills and Training Deprivation5. Barriers to Housing and Services6. Crime7. Living Environment Deprivation
Buckinghamshire County Council
Number of people at risk
• Multiple issues are experienced by those most in need • Large number people affected and getting worse - 4% population
IMDNo. of 30% most deprived areas (English scale)
5,000 children aged 0-15
Buckinghamshire County Council
Hard Pressed and Moderate Means
ACORN Variables• Age quartiles• Ethnicity• Type of employment• Level of qualifications• Socio economic classification• Commute method• Type of residential dwelling• Number of cars per household• Property owner or renter• Rooms and population per household
Buckinghamshire County Council
Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households
Number of Households
Percentage of Households
Urban 20,575 57%Market Town 12,634 35%Rural 2,317 6%Isolated 661 2%Total 36,187 100%
Isolated not shown on map
• Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe
Hard Pressed and Moderate Means
Buckinghamshire County Council
Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households
Number of Households
Percentage of Households
Urban 20,575 57%Market Town 12,634 35%Rural 2,317 6%Isolated 661 2%Total 36,187 100%
Isolated not shown on map
• Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe
• Over 1/3rd in Market Towns
Hard Pressed and Moderate Means
Buckinghamshire County Council
Moderate Means and Hard Pressed Households
Number of Households
Percentage of Households
Urban 20,575 57%Market Town 12,634 35%Rural 2,317 6%Isolated 661 2%Total 36,187 100%
Isolated not shown on map
• Only half of those affected are in Aylesbury & Wycombe
• Over 1/3rd in Market Towns
• 1 in 10 in rural / isolated
Hard Pressed and Moderate Means
Buckinghamshire County Council
Number of households at risk
ACORNModerate Means / Hard Pressed Households
Change (2008-2011)• +29% Hard Pressed• -8% Moderate Means• + 12% Both groups
15.7k households are MM / HP families
Buckinghamshire County Council
Key Issues• Recent unpredicted rise in TFR – more children
• Falling household size – uncertainty of new house builds in AVDC
• Reduction in population aged 0 – 15, but if new TFR remains constant then there will be no overall change
• Children and families in areas at risk of deprivation are at a greater risk of experiencing certain issues e.g. LAC
• Large number of children and families living in areas where people experience a range of deprivation issues
• Around half of all areas at risk of deprivation are not in the urban areas in Bucks
• How can this information be used to better shape services?