Developing Japanese Space Competitiveness: … · Worldwide revenues from direct space activity are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year ... systems, are key to

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Better Decisions…Better Future

Developing Japanese

Space Competitiveness:

Perspectives from Futron’s 2009 Space

Competitiveness Index (SCI)

Keynote Address to Japan’s Institute for Unmanned Space Experiment Free Flyer (USEF) Seventh Space Industry Symposium

December 9, 2009

Better Decisions…Better Future • 2

Agenda

• Introduction to Futron

• Space Competitiveness Index (SCI): genesis and concept

• Summary of 2009 results

• Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT): Selected Country Examples

• Japan SCI Snapshot

• Further Enhancing Japanese Competitiveness

• Conclusions and Questions

Better Decisions…Better Future • 3• 3

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Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) Introduction


• Every day, around the world, people experience the benefits of human engagement in space

• Barely a half-century since the launch of the first satellite, space activities have become

central to the way we live, work and play

Weather Forecasting

Global Positioning System

Mapping and Imagery

Satellite TV, Radio, and Communications

• Applications and benefits of space activity have multiplied—and so has their economic value

Space industry employs hundreds of thousands of people in countries around the globe

Worldwide revenues from direct space activity are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year

• And space remains

An object of wonder and aspiration

An inspirational and symbolic touchstone

An arena of competition

An opportunity for cooperation

The next frontier: the place where we will explore our long-term future

We Live in a World Transformed By Space


• Space as indispensable to global communications and information The internet, wireless communications, voice telephony, and e-commerce, are now

global phenomena—and all have linkages to space assets

Space-enabled products such as GPS equipment and imaging services are also generating new markets

• Space as critical to military power projection Space assets, including satellite communications, reconnaissance, and tracking

systems, are key to command and control

Militaries use space assets for a host of functions, including force tracking, coordination, and situational awareness

• Space as essential to preserving and protecting the planet Earth observation and remote sensing activities have migrated from purely military

functions to the civilian and commercial spheres

Nations are increasingly sharing Earth observation resources

Remote sensing is key to monitoring global warming and climate change

• Space as a global commons—enabling global utilities Space is a shared resource used, and traversed through, by all

Debris mitigation shows how use of space by one country can affect all others

Space trends are key to critical industries and infrastructure


Both traditional companies and new startups are at the vanguard of technology

• Traditional Leaders Established space companies—launch vehicle manufacturers, launch providers, satellite

manufacturers, satellite operators, and providers of related services—continue to explore emerging technologies:

• Less expensive and more rapidly deployable boosters

• Small satellites (smallsats)

• Standardized ―plug-and-play‖ platforms

• Miniaturization of components

• Economies of scale in production

• Emerging Entrepreneurial Players Alongside established players, entrepreneurial space ventures play a growing role

• Space tourism

• New launch vehicles

• New business models

• Capital investment and perspective originating from outside the space industry

Space industry continues to push the envelope


• Advancement of Asian competitors

An exclusive club becomes less exclusive as the Asian space powers—Japan, China, India, and South Korea—compete among themselves

Asian space leaders are increasingly technological peers of the US, Europe, and Russia

The center of gravity in world space activity continues to shift eastward

• Maturity of European space integration

Coalescing of European actors and assets, and a renewed focus on military space

Passage and refinement of the European Space Policy marks a significant accord that sets the stage for new collaborative European space initiatives

• Globalization of space participation

At least 50 nations now have some degree of space involvement—whether a national satellite, an astronaut flown aboard the vehicle of a partner nation, membership in a space organization, or participation in the development of an international space science project

From Malaysia‘s RazakSAT to Vietnam‘s Vinasat 1, from Australia‘s Hyshot 2 to Saudi Arabia‘s Riyadh Space Research Institute, countries from all six populated continents now participate in space

And space activity is now a worldwide phenomenon


Space Competitiveness Index: The Concept

• Questions of national space competitiveness naturally present themselves in any discussion of the strategic space environment

• Yet to our knowledge, there had never been a structured framework for comparing space competitiveness across countries

• In 2008, Futron decided to undertake its own analysis

Create an original framework for evaluating national space competitiveness in all its nuance

Look at both quantitative and qualitative measures

Provide a point-in-time ranking of national space competitiveness that can be tracked year-on-year going forward

Stimulate industry, government, media, and civil society discourse

Serve as a tool for leaders to make strategic decisions


Ten Countries Analyzed

• 12

Canada

Brazil

China

Europe

India

Israel

Japan

Russia

South Korea

USA


Three Dimensions: Government, Human Capital and Industry

Space Competitiveness IndexCategory Weights

Industry

40%

Human

Capital

20%

Gov’t

40%

Space Competitiveness IndexHuman Capital Categories

Human Resources Pool 10%

Usage/Reliance 8%

Civil Society Interest 2%

Human

Capital

20%

Space Competitiveness IndexGovernment Categories

Gov’t

40%

Space Policy &

Innovation

Support25%

Civilian &

Military

Spend15%

Space Competitiveness IndexIndustry Categories

Manufacturing

Capabilities

Launch

Capabilities

Corporate &

Financial

Strength

Industry

40%

12%

13%

15%


Structure

CategoryTarget

MeasurementMetric Weight

Industry Ability to Finance and Deliver Space

Products and Services40%

Manufacturing

Capabilities12%

Spacecrafts Built during Year (Total

Mass & #)4%

Backlog of Spacecraft to be

Produced (Number)4%

VSAT Manufacturing (Market

Share)2%

# of Subcomponent Manufacturers 2%

Launch

Capabilities13%

Number of Active Spaceports 5%

Total Mass of Launches (Military +

Commercial) During Past Year (Kg)2%

Number of launches During Past

Year2%

1 yr. Backlog of Orbital Launches

to Be Conducted (Number)2%

Number of Planned Spaceports 2%

Corporate &

Financial

Strength

15%

Space Revenue for Top 75

Companies (US$M)4%

Revenue for Leading GPS

Companies (US$M)1%

Top 20 Teleport Rankings 1%

Private Sector Investment (US$M

VC and PE)4%

Ranking by Investment Source 2%

Ranking by Investment Destination 2%

Number of Support Companies,

e.g., Finance, Information, et al 3%

Number of Test & Development

Satellites Launched2%

• 14

Structure

CategoryTarget


Ability of Government to Provide

Structure, Guidance, and Funding40%

Government

Space Policy &

Innovation

Support

20%

National Civil Space Policy 3%

Civil space program

budget as percentage of

national budget

3%

National Military

Space Doctrine3%

Military Space

Command Structure2%

Remote Sensing Policy,

Laws & Regulations3%

National Commercial

Space Policy2%

Positioning, Navigation,

and Timing (PNT) Strategy2%

Information,

Communications and

Telecommunications (ICT)

Policy

2%

International

Space

Cooperation

International

Cooperation5%

International Coordination -

ISS Participant3%

International Coordination -

Cooperative Agreements2%

Government

Spend on Civilian

and Military

Space (US$PPP)

15%

Civilian Space Spending

(US$PPP)7.5%

Military Space Spending

(US$PPP)7.5%

Go

vern

men

t

Structure

CategoryTarget


Ability for People to Develop and

Willingness to Use Applications and

Technology

20%

Human

Resources Pool10%

Number of Astronauts 2%

Number of Relevant

University Programs3%

Number of Space Law

Programs1%

Number of Civilian

Research Institutes2%

Number of Spacecraft built

during last 20 years2%

Usage/Reliance 8%

Number of Active

Spacecraft6%

Science & Exploration 1%

Communications 1%

Earth Observation 1%

PNT 1%

Military Satellites 2%

Number of End Users (DTH,

Internet, Sat Radio)2%

Civil Society

Interest and

Support

2%

Number of "Space-

oriented" organizations

and/or NGOs

2%

Hu

man

Cap

ital

Ind

ustr

y

50+ Metrics


Five Segments (or Verticals)

Special Focus: Five Segments

1. Global Space Exploration Index

2. Global Military Space Index

3. Global Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Index

4. Global Remote Sensing Index

5. Global Space Technology Base Index

SCI Drivers

Who What How

Military Exploration Government Policies & Leadership

Civilian Government Communications Human Capital and Experience

Commercial EnterpriseRemote Sensing

Corporate Structure and

Operations

Non-profit Organizations Positioning, Navigation & Timing Space Technology Base

Individuals Manufacturing Investment & Spending

Launch

Space Services

SCI Segmentation Analysis


Results featured in International Publications

• 16


2009 Space Competitiveness Index Results


SCI government metrics measure the ability for government to provide structure, guidance,

and funding to the space industry

• The U.S. has a robust government policymaking structure with detailed strategies for military, civilian, and

commercial applications—but the complexity of the system, a lack of a unifying executive structure for

decision-making, and the ongoing issue of export controls reduce overall competitiveness

• The U.S. spends more money than any other nation on space. Its substantial military investment offers

technology advantages, but may also obscure narrowing technological advantages in the civil space arena

• European governments, through the European Union (EU) and the European Space Agency (ESA), have

integrated their policymaking structures and are increasing civilian and commercial spending

• Japan‘s recent updates to its space law and policy signal a renewed government focus on the strategic,

economic and social benefits of space activity. This renewed focus on the country‘s space ambitions also

highlights the country‘s advanced technological capabilities

Metrics – Government

Space Competitiveness Index - Government

6.10

6.72

8.39

12.24

12.89

15.80

38.42

18.57

19.32

12.42

0 10 20 30 40 50

Brazil

Israel

South Korea

India

China

Canada

Japan

Russia

Europe

U.S.


SCI human capital metrics focus on the ability for people to develop and use space-enabled

applications and technology

• Significant concern persists globally within industry and government regarding the development of

adequate human resources, particularly technically skilled personnel such as engineers

This is especially felt among current space leaders, such as the U.S.—where an estimated 60 percent of non-

citizen engineers return to their home countries after earning degrees

• Data regarding human resources within the space industry is sparse, and lacks consistency across

countries, but the 2009 SCI has added a metric for space law training capacity

• Usage of, and reliance on, space-enabled services is skewed towards larger, advanced economies,

particularly with the introduction of new satellite services such as navigation and end-user Internet access

• Civil society interest and support is widespread throughout Asia, Canada, Europe, and the U.S.

• Japan benefits from a skilled workforce and a solid university sector. Greater investment in research

institutes and development of human spaceflight component would increase its human capital base

Metrics – Human Capital

Space Competitiveness Index - Human Capital

0.49

0.56

1.34

1.71

1.72

2.98

3.42

9.03

3.04

13.96

0 5 10 15 20

Brazil

Israel

South Korea

India

Japan

China

Russia

Canada

Europe

U.S.


SCI industry metrics calculate the ability for the private sector to finance and deliver space

products and services

• Satellite communications is one market segment predominantly in the hands of the private sector

• Significant commercial interest persists regarding remote sensing and informatics applications, as well as a

rapidly growing downstream market based on the U.S.-operated Global Positioning (GPS) constellation

• Despite its export control constraints, the U.S. commercial space industry remains the leader, with continued

very high revenues and financial activity

• European commercial competitiveness remained largely unchanged between 2008 and 2009, providing a

statistical counterpoint to perceptions that the European market has gained dramatically from efforts to

develop alternatives to satellites and equipment controlled by U.S. export regulations

• Japan and China are ranked very closely in industrial base, highlighting the ―Asian Space Race‖ perception

Japan‘s strengths include high technology, large numbers of subcomponent manufacturers, and private capital

China‘s strengths include high volumes of launch vehicles and hardware produced in recent years

Metrics – Industry

Space Competitiveness Index - Industry

0.50

1.38

1.42

1.82

2.31

3.65

4.06

10.83

18.46

37.94

0 10 20 30 40 50

Brazil

India

Israel

Canada

South Korea

Japan

China

Russia

Europe

U.S.


The breakout by category provides additional value to understand national

strengths and weaknesses

2009 Space Competitiveness IndexCategory View

Space Competitiveness Index - Total

6.10

6.72

8.39

12.24

12.89

12.42

15.80

18.57

19.32

38.42

9.03

13.96

10.83

18.46

37.94

1.72

2.98

3.42

1.71

1.34

0.56

0.49

3.04

3.65

4.06

1.82

1.38

2.31

1.42

0.50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Brazil

Israel

South Korea

India

Canada

China

Japan

Russia

Europe

U.S.

Government Human Capital Industry


Based on 50+ indicators, Futron’s Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) ranks leading space

powers and measures their relative positions

2009 Space Competitiveness IndexGlobal View

Brazil

China

IndiaJapan

South Korea

Israel

Russia

U.S.

Canada

Europe

0

25

50

0 25 50

Government

Ind

us

try

Japan

Bubble size represents

Human Capital


2009 versus 2008 SCI Overall SCI Results

Rank Country Government Human Capital Industry 2009 Score2008 Score

(Rank)

1 U.S. 38.42 13.96 37.94 90.33 91.43 (1)

2 Europe 19.32 9.03 18.46 46.80 48.07 (2)

3 Russia 18.57 3.04 10.83 32.44 34.06 (3)

4 Japan 15.80 1.72 3.65 21.16 14.46 (7)

5 China 12.42 2.98 4.06 19.46 17.88 (4)

6 Canada 12.89 3.42 1.82 18.13 16.94 (6)

7 India 12.24 1.71 1.39 15.34 17.51 (5)

8South

Korea8.39 1.34 2.31 12.03 8.88 (8)

9 Israel 6.72 0.56 1.42 8.70 8.37 (9)

10 Brazil 6.10 0.49 0.50 7.08 4.96 (10)

• Due in large part to its substantial new Space Law, which sets out specific space goals, creates new

structures, and provides for the possibility of Japanese military activity in space, Japan saw the

single biggest gain of any country between Futron’s 2008 and 2009 Space Competitiveness Index

• Japan leapfrogged over Canada, India, and China to become this year’s fourth-ranked country in

terms of overall space competitiveness


Strengths-Weaknesses Opportunities-Threats:

Major Countries Compared


United States2009 Rank: 1

Helpful Harmful

Internal O

rigin

STRENGTH

• Very strong aerospace and space sector

• Highest global space spending across all three main sectors:

civilian, military and commercial

• History and significant experience base across most technology

segments

• Strong commercial space segment and support industries, allowing

for production lines that produce large volumes at low unit costs

• Strong public-private sector cooperation

• High levels of consumer use of space services ranging from GPS

to telecommunications, satellite radio, internet broadband, etc.

WEAKNESS

• Recent economic and domestic employment crises may reduce relative

priority of space activity in the minds of policymakers and the public

• Significant industry concern regarding the long-term sustainability of human

resources and human capital development

• Lack of cabinet-level government position focused on space industry

despite a large stakeholder community

• ITAR export controls hinder commercial export activity, especially for

smaller, innovative companies with limited financial resources or legal

expertise

External O

rigin

OPPORTUNITY

• NewSpace sector activities such as commercial space tourism and

rocket racing, stimulate technical innovation, new revenue streams,

and business models

• NASA can leverage ISS leadership and other partnerships to build

further collaboration with leading space agencies

• Develop new space services markets such as mobile video and

imagery products

• Lunar missions could spur economic activity

• ORS paradigm could spark innovation

THREAT

• Gap between Shuttle and Constellation programs offers strategic opening

for competing systems

• Resurgent provides competitive alternative in launch segment

• Global manufacturers responding to export controls with products marketed

as “ITAR-Free”

• Chinese demand for satellite communications based on proprietary

standards create substantial market for manufacturing and launch

opportunities outside US

• Retaining lead position in an increasingly competitive environment will

likely become more difficult


Europe2009 Rank: 2

Helpful Harmful

Internal O

rigin

STRENGTH

• Very strong aerospace sector

• Significant government program support

• Multi-year budgetary commitments

• Extensive experience in international cooperation

• Home of major players in global satellite communications (SES and

Eutelsat)

• Reliable and commercially successful access to space (Ariane), soon

complemented by smaller launchers (Vega, Soyuz 2)

• Strong participation in international programs

• Essential role in ISS

• The European Space policy—first adopted in 2007—has enhanced ’s

ability to integrate national space policies and implement common

European space policies

WEAKNESS

• Fragmented (from a pan-European point of view) military space policies

and budgets lead to inefficiency and overlap between assets and

expenses, inhibiting transfer of technologies originally developed for the

military to the commercial sector

• Coexistence of national and ESA programs sometimes results in overlap,

redundancy, and inefficient use of resources

• Coordination of 19 member states’ interests entails a complex and

sometimes lengthy decision making process in ESA

• Coordination between ESA and the European Council (EC) is

complicated by different nature of both organizations

External O

rigin

OPPORTUNITY

• Europe’s ITAR-free satellite and space industry is gaining market

traction, benefiting its overall competitive position—especially in relation

to the

• Strong relationships with Middle Eastern and African markets provide a

regional competitive edge in regions that are expected to increase in

commercial, political, and economic influence

• Europe’s Galileo satellite navigation positions itself as a partner and a

competitor of GPS

• Increasing integration of licensing and regulatory processes across the

EU, making it the largest developed consumer market in the world for

space-related products and services

THREAT

• Complex decision-making process within ESA and between ESA and EC

may result in slow reactivity to challenges and opportunities.

• Projected shortage of future workforce in space engineering.

• Slow international process to conceive and prepare for future human

spaceflight/exploration (beyond ISS) endangers continuity of human

spaceflight activities that would affect also .

• Minor role in some satellite-related fields such as VSAT

• Excessive reliance on “ITAR-free” commercial offerings may result in

less-than-optimal cost structures


Russia2009 Rank: 3

Helpful Harmful

Internal O

rigin

STRENGTH

• Strong space legacy based on U.S.S.R, technology, assets, and

organization

• Industry-leading launch platforms and capacity

• National reinvestment of Russian military, and refocus within the

country’s centralized military space organization

• ISS participation and other partnerships with Europe and the

provide access to leading-edge technology

• Continued development of wholly-owned and operated

Vostochny launch facility, as opposed to partially owned

Baikonur facility in Kazakhstan

WEAKNESS

• Some strategic formerly U.S.S.R. assets located in newly-independent states

(NIS)

• Military space activities are not cascaded through all branches of Russian

military

• Although space industrial base is world-class, commercial aerospace sector

has only moderate international presence

• Quality of post-secondary engineering education varies widely

• Loss of significant human capital due to competition with the private sector inside Russia and also to emigration—largely to Canada, Europe, Israel, and

the US

External O

rigin

OPPORTUNITY

• Cooperation with newly independent states of former USSR

creates leadership and export opportunities

• can provide increased expertise and exports to emerging Asian

actors

• Reemphasis on Asian markets and partners can create market

niche

• Russian enterprises can support new product development

surrounding operation of GLONASS

THREAT

• NIS, particularly Ukraine and Kazakhstan, create “access risks” to launch and

spaceport facilities

• Economic volatility has affected more severely than other leaders over the past

decade, leading to doubts about the long-term viability of and Vostochny

projects

• Failure of efforts to commercialize GLONASS would result in limited return on

a substantial investment


China2009 Rank: 5

Helpful Harmful

Internal O

rigin

STRENGTH

• Track record of incremental space advancements interspersed with

rapid substantial achievements

• Bold strategy and objectives, supported by strong government focus

and resources

• Strategic launch platforms with consistent success

• Concerted investment in technical institutes will, over time, build a

strong human resource base

• Cost and pricing competitiveness supported by government subsidies

• Diverse range of programs covering all major segments

WEAKNESS

• Lack of transparency within the civilian and military space organization

• Closed environment represents a barrier to entry for international

commercial segments and investment, such as satellite communications

• Limited role and experience of private-sector actors

• Limited role of civil society in space activity

• Lack of international agreements with leading space players minimizes

scale and global reach

• Lack of NewSpace activity such as space tourism and entrepreneurship

• Limited involvement from financial sector and other support industries

External O

rigin

OPPORTUNITY

• Emerging domestic aerospace sector, if commercialized, could

increase space-related exports

• Leverage the successful launch record and competitive launch price of

the Long March vehicle to expand presence in international

commercial launch market

• Develop international partnerships in lunar, manned, and Mars-

focused space programs

• Leverage commercial space resources of Hong Kong, including the

headquarters of important satellite communications providers

THREAT

• Trying to do too much too fast may result in broad but thin technology

base

• The more increases its international commercial presence, the more it

may encounter issues of intellectual property rights

• Increasingly global commercial operations by other leading countries

have competitive edge over nascent Chinese industry

• Political or military posturing could inhibit the benefits of

commercialization and international partnerships


India2009 Rank: 7

Helpful Harmful

Internal O

rigin

STRENGTH

• Cabinet-level focus on civil space sector

• Year-on-year funding increases and indirect investment via

government ownership of space services

• Highly skilled and motivated human resource base—and a government

policy to support education

• Increasingly world-class technology base and positive track record

• Strongly articulated linkage between national space goals and

economic development

• Immense domestic market, particularly for satellite services—though

contingent on continued economic development

• Strategy of international collaboration and partnership with leading

space powers

WEAKNESS

• Few proven cutting-edge space applications or technologies

• Telecommunications policy that inhibits innovation and development of

space-based services, such as satellite radio, consumer broadband via

satellite and spectrum issues

• Commercial marketplace remains immature and highly dependent on

domestic government programs

• Government ownership of key infrastructure distorts the commercial

marketplace

• In absolute terms, ISRO funding is significantly smaller than leading

space powers

• Weak, but improving, military space program, organization, and assets

External O

rigin

OPPORTUNITY

• Extensive ties to other major space programs provide opportunities for

collaboration

• Potential to improve US-Indian space ties—government and

commercial—as is perceived by policymakers to be an important ally

• Recently signed political accords between India and Association of

Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations could lead to regional

commercial or intergovernmental agreements

• English-heritage legal and property rights regimes ease partnering with

the West

• Ability to leverage IT and software development capabilities

• Low-cost of production could stimulate exports

THREAT

• Strong regional and global competitors in the launch and manufacturing

arena could limit market share

• US and European firms will likely continue to dominate high-end

technology and payload markets in near term

• Space relations with US and could sour if there is a resurgence of

tension in India-Pakistan relations


South Korea2009 Rank: 8

Helpful Harmful

Internal O

rigin

STRENGTH

• Recent ramp-up of space activities provide a foundation for future

activity

• Moderate aerospace sector, and strong subcomponent sector

• Some limited experience building satellites

• Strong space vision and increased budget

• Deepening international partnerships with leading space powers

WEAKNESS

• Limited military space assets and organization

• Lack of commercial space policy, as well as a deliberate strategy for

commercialization

• Relatively weak private-sector space business, with limited finance and

support services

External O

rigin

OPPORTUNITY

• Leverage international partnerships with , US, and —including the

ISS program

• Increase exports of space electronics and components tied to hybrid

services such as telecommunications equipment, GPS devices, etc.

• Leverage strengths in information, communications, and

telecommunications (ICT) products and services

THREAT

• Geopolitical tensions between North and could negatively impact

South Korean commercial development

• Lack of industry scale could limit South Korean emergence in the

international launch market

• South Korea’s export-driven economy may experience a longer-term

economic recession, impacting short and long-term budgets


Japan Snapshot


Japan2009 Rank: 4

Helpful Harmful

In

te

rn

al O

rig

in

STRENGTH

• Passage of Basic Space Law creates a clear policy-making

framework and impetus for government-wide space focus,

planning and investment

• Merger of three organizations into JAXA, combined with JAXA

Vision 2025, has helped strengthen the space agency

• Established history of space activities, exploration programs,

and launch programs

• Major ISS participant with new Kibo module and HTV

• Very strong, world-class industrial and technological foundation

WEAKNESS

• Comparatively low prioritization of civil space spending as a

proportion of national budget

• Modest aerospace industry overall, with lack of global reach

among Japanese space manufacturers

• Limited civil society focus on space

• Advantages of strong individual institutions and universities offset

by somewhat limited academic network of space programs and

activities

Ex

te

rn

al O

rig

in

OPPORTUNITIES

• Potential for new Basic Space Law to have cascading effects

throughout government and commercial sectors

• Improved leverage and benefits from strategic relationship with

US

• Possible increased role in ISS, for instance to fill spaceflight

gaps linked to Space Shuttle retirement

• Increasing investment in defense and homeland security could

include space systems

• Focus on disaster management could leverage regional

leadership position

• Increasing internal and external discussion/collaboration can

promote knowledge-sharing and innovative new approaches

THREATS

• Lack of financial and support industry limits overall availability of

financing, especially in a recessionary environment

• Japan is yet perceived as a leader in entrepreneurial space or

space commerce, limiting its ability to forge dynamic business

relationships with external partners

• Japan in not yet viewed internationally as a consistently

advancing space contender—which may reduce the confidence

of international governmental partners in Japan’s ability to

sustain multi-decadal space goals

• Major redirection of US human spaceflight program could have

implications for Japanese astronauts


Further Enhancing Japanese Space Competitiveness


Perfect Timing

• Japan‘s Basic Space Law, JAXA renewal, and creation of the Strategic

Headquarters for Space Policy (SHSP) all point to new prioritization and focus

• Japan‘s re-consideration of its national and commercial space objectives

comes at the right time

Worldwide economic restructuring: risks, but also opportunities

Major changes in leadership: In Japan, the United States, Europe, and elsewhere

Many space agencies currently engaged in top-to-bottom policy reviews

Renewed international focus on big goals

• Human spaceflight

• The Moon

• Mars

• Understanding the Origins of the Universe

• Mitigating Global Warming and Climate Change

Many avenues for cooperation: business-to-business, government-to-government,

and public-private partnerships

―Cooperation is the new competition.‖


Japan Starts With Many Advantages

• Viewed as an excellent space collaborator

Strong partnerships with US and Europe

• US has flown more missions with Japan than any other country

• Internationally acknowledged leadership

World-class –in some cases world-leading—quality of technology

• US contacts have called Japanese ISS equipment ―exquisite‖

Precision manufacturing

• Some of the most advanced instruments, mechanisms, and hardware in the world

• Potential to emerge, in global perception, as regional space leader

Futron‘s 2009 SCI identifies Japan as current top-ranked nation in Asia

• Plenty of successful experience ―going global‖

Japan has pioneered many new technologies on the world stage

Japanese business history offers myriad examples of how to transform an initial

strength into a worldwide presence and brand


• A bold vision and a roadmap are needed

Challenging and coherent goals—many pathways for getting there

Identify incremental actions needed, and assess progress along the way

How to get from here to there?

Monitor

Implement

Where

Japan Is

Where

Japan

Wants to Be

Milestones

Re-Assess

Execute

Here and Now Then and There

Plan Act (and React)


Main Strategic Issue

• Japan can leverage its current government, industry, and human

capital strengths into

More efficient and cost-effective supply chains

More productive innovation spirals

Greater global commercial presence

• To do so, Japan should ask where it could, and should

Lead

Compete

Cooperate

Invest


Success begins

with building on

qualities that are

uniquely your

own.

• These first 50 years

of space activity are

not the end; This is

only the beginning.

Uniquely Japanese Strengths

Documents

Developing Japanese Space Competitiveness: … · Worldwide revenues from direct space activity are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year ... systems, are key to