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An Economic Tsunami – The cost of diabetes in Canada

Presentation to the First Canadian Summit on Metabolic Surgery for Type 2 DiabetesThursday, May 6th, 2010

Margaret Beatty, RN, MHSc, CHE Vice-President, Research, Professional Education & Government Affairs

Robin SomervilleDirector, The Centre for Spatial Economics

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• A member-driven charitable association• A presence across Canada• Supported by a volunteer network

Who we are

What we do

• Programs and services• Research• Education and information• Advocacy

Objectives of the Report

• Define the cost/burden of diabetes• Create a forecasting model• Efficacy of interventions

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Expert Advisory Committee

• Dr. Jeff Johnson, University of Alberta• Dr. Paula Stewart, Public Health Agency of Canada• Glenn Robbins, Public Health Agency of Canada• Chris Cameron, Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health• Denis Bélanger, Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health• David Whiting, International Diabetes Federation• Ole Henrikson, Novo Nordisk• Nik Nikolav, Novo Nordisk• Tanya Wymer, Novo Nordisk• Robyn Tamblyn, McGill University• Michael Wolfson, Statistics Canada• Mike McCracken, Informetrica• Paul Jacobson, Informetrica• Robin Somerville, Centre for Spatial Economics

Key Findings

Cost of Diabetes in Canada:

• $12.2 billion today• $16.9 billion by 2020

Key Findings

Prevalence of Diabetes in Canada:• 2.5 million have been diagnosed with diabetes

(3 million have diabetes)

• 1.2 million more will be diagnosed over next decade

• Population with diabetes is 7.3% increasing to 9.9% by 2020

• 1 in 4 in four Canadians either has diabetes or prediabetes

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An Ounce of Prevention

• Interventions = reduce costs• 2% reduction = 9% (direct) &

7% (indirect) cost savings

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Need for Action

Key areas should include:

• Canadian Diabetes Strategy/Aboriginal Diabetes Initiative

• Tax strategies• Research

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The Canadian Diabetes Cost Model

The Model Can:• Project the costs, incidence and prevalence of diabetes

• Determine the cost benefit of initiatives designed to delay or prevent the onset of type 2 diabetes

• Be developed further to provide province-specific data

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The Canadian Diabetes Cost ModelWhy it is unique?

• It is independent• It uses Canadian data• It includes indirect costs

The Canadian Diabetes Cost Model

Key Assumptions: • Population growth• Incidence rates • Mortality rates• Occurrence rates (hospitalization,

doctor visits, medication, etc.) • Per unit costs (2005 dollars)

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Key Drivers: Prevalence

Main drivers:1. Population increases2. Aging population3. Rising incidence rates4. Demographics

(changes in ethnic mix), obesity rates & sedentary lifestyles

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Key Drivers: CostsDirect:• Direct hospitalization • CVD-related costs• General practitioner

visit costs• Specialist visit costs • Diabetes medication

costs

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Indirect:• Mortality costs• Long-term disability

costs

Next Steps

Update the Model (April – October 2010) Provincial Models (NB in May 2010, ON in June 2010) Regional & Community Models (November 2010) Impact Studies (2011) Detailed Treatment of

Co-morbidities (2011-2012)

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diabetes.ca | 1-800-BANTING (226-8464)

Thank you

Thank you for helping us lead the fight against diabetes by helping people with diabetes live healthy lives while we work to find a cure.

Our report, An Economic Tsunami: the cost of diabetes in Canada, is available in English and French at diabetes.ca/economicreport