Die Atmosphäre und ihre Veränderungen

http://www.sediment.uni-goettingen.de/staff/ruppert/skript/ug02.ppt

Die Atmosphäre – eine verletzliche Haut

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Menschen-verursachte (= anthropogene oder technogene) Veränderungen der Atmosphäre und ihre Auswirkungen

Emission von Treibhausgasen wie CO2 und CH4 → Treibhauseffekt

Emission Ozon-abbauender Substanzen → Ozonloch

Emission von Partikeln und Nukleationskeimen → Sichtverminderung,

Emission von Säurebildnern (Stickoxide, SO2 etc.)→ Niederschlags-, Boden-, Gewässerversauerung, Waldsterben

Emission von Säurebildnern, Partikeln und → photochemischer Smog, reaktiven Gasen Materialkorrosion, Gesund-

heitsbeeinträchtigung durch Inhalation oder Deposition

Ursache Wirkung

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UmaovECNAXc (22.10.2013)

IPCC (2007): http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/ natur/0,1518,463865,00.html

Konzentrationsverlauf der Treibhaus-gase CO2, Methan CH4 und Lachgas N2O in der Erdatmosphäre über die letzten 10000 Jahre bis ins Jahr 2005. Dabei stammt nur die rote Spitze der Kurve von direkten Messungen in der Atmosphäre. Werte für weiter zurückliegende Zeitpunkte haben Wissenschaftler aus Eisbohrkernen gewonnen.

Ice with trapped air bubbles

Anthropogenic Perturbation of the Global Carbon Cycle

Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities, averaged globally for the decade 2002–2011 (PgC/yr)

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The current global energy system is dominated by fossil fuels.

http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/ipcc-srren-generic-presentation-1 (20.9.2012)

On a global basis, it is estimated that renewable Energies accounted for 12.9% of the total 492 Exajoules (EJ) of primary energy supply in 2008.

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2002-2011 average)

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012,http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/12/files/CarbonBudget2012-highres.ppt (22.10.2013)

8.3±0.4 PgC/yr 90%

+1.0±0.5 PgC/yr 10%2.6±0.8 PgC/yr

28%Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

4.3±0.1 PgC/yr

46%

26%2.5±0.5 PgC/yr

Global Carbon Budget

Emissions to the atmosphere are balanced by the sinks

Averaged sinks since 1959: 44% atmosphere, 28% land, 28% ocean

The dashed land-use change line does not include management-climate interactions

The land sink was a source in 1987 and 1998 (1997 visible as an emission)Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

http

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.glo

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2/fil

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Correlation between carbon emissions, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and temperature change during the last millenium

Annual and five-year running mean temperature change (oC) for both hemispheres relative to the baseline period of 1951-1980

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ (22.10.2013)

Mean surface temperature change (°C) from 1901 to 2012

1. The temperature rise increases towards the North.

2. The temperature rise is smaller in the ocean water than on land surfaces.

The temperature change is more pronounced in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere.

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UmaovECNAXc (22.10.2013)

Greenhouse gas (CO2,CH4, and N2O) and δ D (deuterium) records for the past 650000 yrs. from EPICA Dome C and other ice cores

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The temperature of the last interglacial Eem (~120 000 BP) could correspond to the temperature at 2100 AD. The sea level was 5-6 m higher than today.

Vostock station

([D]/[H])sampleδD (‰) = 1000 x ------------------ -1 ([D]/[H]standard

Influences of greenhouse gas emissions on climate, land and ocean

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UmaovECNAXc (22.10.2013)

2007 20132001 2007 20132001

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Reconstructed global-average temperature relative to 1800-1900 (blue) and projected global-average temperature out to 2100 (the latter from

IPCC, 2007, different scenarios)

For the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC in Oct. 2013, the scientific community has defined a set of four new scenarios, denoted Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are identified by their approximate total radiative forcing in year 2100 relative to 1750: total radiative forcing approximate CO2 (CO2-eq.*)

2.6 W m-2 for RCP2.6 421 (475) ppm 4.5 W m-2 for RCP4.5 538 (630) ppm 6.0 W m-2 for RCP6.0 670 (800) ppm8.5 W m-2 for RCP8.5 936 (1313) ppm

*= CO2 including CH4 and N2O

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UmaovECNAXc (22.10.2013)

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

http

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Maps representing the model scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–2100 (a) annual mean surface temperature change,

(b) average percent change in annual mean precipitation

Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.

http

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Die Temperatur in der Troposphäre nimmt im Mittel um 6.5 oC pro km ab.

Die Troposphäre ist etwa 11 km mächtig (Pole: 9 km, Äquator: bis 18 km).

Etwa 3/4 der gesamten Atmosphären-masse befindet sich in der Troposphäre.

Nahezu alles Wettergeschehen findet in der Troposphäre statt (dort ist fast alles atmosphärisches H2O).

Troposphäre Atmosphärenaufbau (mittlere Breiten)

temperature

2001

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Turco (1997, S. 326+328)

http

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Energiebilanz der Erdhülle

Hansen (2005): Spektrum der Wissenschaft 2/2005, S. 37

Global mean energy budget (W/m2) under present day climate conditions.

Numbers state magnitudes of the individual energy fluxes in W/m2, adjusted within their uncertainty ranges to close the energy budgets. Numbers in parentheses attached to the energy fluxes cover the range of values in line with observational constraints.

http

://da

ta.g

iss.

nasa

.gov

/gis

tem

p/gr

aphs

_v3/

(22

.10.

2013

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Globale Windzirkulations-systeme im Schnitt

Idealisiertes 3-Zellen-Zirkulationsmodell

http://www.earth.rochester.edu/fehnlab/ees215/fig15_1.jpg

Rodhe (1994) in Butcher et al., p. 71Ungefähre Abschätzung charakteristischer Zeiten für den lateralen und vertikalen Austausch zwischen Luft- bzw. Wassermassen

← WEEKS to 1 MONTH →

Residence time in the atmosphere →

Maximum scale of the problem

Quelle: EEA 1995, Centre for Airborne Organics 1997

Selected pollutants, their average residence times in the atmosphere and maximum extent of their impact

UNEP (2007): Geo-4 Report. Global Environment Outlook GEO4. S. 43.

↑

Turco (1997): Earth under Siege. S. 13

2013: ~400 ppmv

The composition of tropospheric air: volume fractions in per cent and parts per million per volume (ppmv)

ca. 2,72m (2008), natürlich 1,97m

Roedel (2000): Physik unserer Umwelt – Die Atmosphäre. S. 13-14

CH4 (Methan) ca. 0,016 mN2O (Lachgas) ca. 0,0022 m

Turco (1997): Earth under Siege. S. 52

Ausstrahlfenster zwischen ~7-12 µm

Sorptionsbereiche typischer Treibhausgase für Strahlung

Mittlere globale Temperatursteigerung durch Treibhausgase von –18 oC auf +15 oC

Turco (1997, S. 338)

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Albedo: [lateinisch albus »weiß«] in Astronomie und Meteorologie ein Maß für das Rückstrahlvermögen von diffus reflektierenden Oberflächen (z.B. der Sonnenstrahlung durch Erdoberfläche und Atmosphäre).

http

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(other estimate: 5-10%)

Linking relative humidity to cloud feedbacks (A) Water vapor (in cm), (B) cloud fraction, and (C) reflected solar radiation (in W/m2) for July 2012. Clouds cool the climate by reflecting incoming sunlight back to space, but they also warm the climate by absorbing upwelling terrestrial radiation from the surface. Their net effect is to cool the planet, but changes in clouds in response to global warming may increase or reduce this cooling. Climate models do not agree on the spatial patterns of cloud changes or their net radiative effects, and the cloud feedback is responsible for most of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity in model studies. Observational data are needed to resolve these issues. Black regions in the water vapor plot indicate missing data, often due to high cloud coverage. Regions with high cloud fraction and reflected solar radiation generally coincide with high amounts of water vapor. Note in particular the subtropical regions with low reflected solar radiation. Fasullo & Trenbert (2012) use the correlations of these three fields to relate relative humidity changes to reflected solar radiation changes and, hence, cloud feedbacks.

Science 9 November 2012: vol. 338 no. 6108 755-756

Does temperature increased water evaporation enhance an atmospheric warming (yellow) or cooling (blue)

http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/climate-change-final.pdf

Concentration trends of carbon dioxide CO2 (top) and methane CH4 (bottom) in the atmosphere

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org

↑ Annual cycle of CO2 in the northern hemisphere

CO2 and CH4 are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The trends with seasonal cycle removed are shown in red.

Jan. April July Oct. Jan.

Photo-synthesis

Decay of org. mat.

Decay of organic material

Pre-industrial and recent (2011) greenhouse gas concentrations in the tropo-sphere

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Classes of Compounds of Halocarbons

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs): when derived from methane and ethane these compounds have the formulae CClmF4-m and C2ClmF6-m, where m is nonzero.

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs): when derived from methane and ethane these compounds have the formulae CClmFnH4-m-n and C2ClxFyH6-x-y, where m, n, x, and y are nonzero (commercial: e.g. Freon).

Bromochlorofluorocarbons and bromofluorocarbons have formulae similar to the CFCs and HCFCs but also bromine (commercial: e.g. halones).

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs): when derived from methane, ethane, propane, and butane, these compounds have the respective formulae CFmH4-m, C2FmH6-m, C3FmH8-m, and C4FmH10-m, where m is nonzero.

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) refer to a class of organofluorine compounds that have all hydrogens replaced with fluorine on a carbon chain.

Shares of anthropogenic sources of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 (50.1 GtCO2e) by main sector and gas type (in CO2-equivalent)

http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf (22.11.2012); McKeown & Gradner (2009): Climate Change Reference Guide. Worldwatch Institute, 17 pp.

The primary human-generated greenhouse gases are CO2, CH4, fluorinated gases (including CFCs = chlorofluorocarbons), N2O, and O3. Greenhouse gases are only one source of climate change; aerosols such as black carbon, sulfuric acid, and solar radiation also affect warming.

http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf (22.11.2012); McKeown & Gradner (2009): Climate Change Reference Guide. Worldwatch Institute, 17 pp.

Shares of anthropogenic sources of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 (50.1 GtCO2e) by main sector (in CO2-equivalent)

Trend in global greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2010 by sector . This graph shows emissions of 50.1 Gt CO2eq in 2010.

http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf (22.11.2012)

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CO2-Emissionen (1980 und 1989) in Abhängigkeit vom Breitengrad

Global Carbon Storage in Above- and Below-Ground Live Vegetation

Despite constant exchanges of C between forest biomass, soils, and the atmosphere, a large amount is always present in leaves and woody tissue, roots, and soils. This quanti-ty of C is known as the carbon store. C sequestration and storage slow the rate at which CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere and mitigate global warming. 268-901 billion tons of C are estimated to be stored in the world’s above- and below-ground live vegetation.

1 ha = 10 000 m2

http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=225&theme=3

World Resources Institute and PAGE (2000)

Global Carbon Storage in Soils (World Resources Institute and PAGE, 2000)

http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.cfm?map_select=226&theme=3

WRI’s estimates of carbon stores in soils are based on those of Batjes (Batjes, 1996), who estimated the global stock of organic carbon in the upper 100 cm of the soil to be between 1,462 and 1,548 billion tons of carbon.Carbon storage values in the boreal region reach a maximum of 1250 metric tons of carbon per hectare.

http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.cfm?map_select=227&theme=3 (11/2011)

The carbon store depicted in this map is 2,385 billion tons. The low-end estimate is 1,752 billion tons (World Resources Institute and PAGE, 2000). Forest ecosystems account for about 40 % of the total carbon, about 34 % is stored in grasslands, about 17 % in agricultural lands. The highest quantities of stored carbon are located in the tropical and boreal forest regions. In the tropics, more carbon is stored in vegetation than in soils while in the boreal region far more carbon is stored in the soils. Peatlands in the boreal region are especially important areas because of the large quantities of soil carbon stored per unit area.

Global carbon storage in above- and below-ground live vegetation and soils (World Resources Institute and PAGE, 2000)

Baumert et al (2005)

Sources of CO2 emissions from global land use change 2000

Afforestation: establishment of a forest or stand of trees in an area where there was no forest. Reforestation: reestablishment of forests, either naturally or artificially (direct seeding or planting)

Temporal evolution of the atmospheric carbon balance over the years 1958-2006. Red line: CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning.

http

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The interannual variability is driven primarily by climate variations. Drought conditions in important large terrestrial ecosystems, e.g. in the Amazonas basin during El Niño phases induce carbon losses by decreased photosynthesis, increased decomposition and/or increased wildfires.

Increase in global temperatures may both increase and decrease the atmospheric CO2. content:

Scenario 1: Rising temperatures facilitate the release of soil carbon from organic matter, which is oxidized to CO2.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Conundrum/

Scenario 2: However, increased temperature also leads to increased growth in plants, which absorb CO2 (if enough water is available).

Sarmiento & Gruber (2002)

← Annual methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources

Annual methane sinks ↓

http

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ww

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ope.

eu/?

q=m

etha

ne_b

udge

t (1

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Total CH4 yearly flux for 2000-2005 → http://www.carboscope.eu/?q=flux_map&param=ch4 (1.11.2013)

IPCC (2001)

Sonnenflecken erscheinen dunkel, weil das starke Magnetfeld den Energietrans-port durch Gasströmungen aus dem Son-neninneren unterdrückt (~1500oC kühler).

Man muss über 8.000 Jahre in der Erdgeschich-te zurückgehen, bis man einen Zeitraum findet, in dem die Sonne im Mittel ebenso aktiv war wie in den vergangenen 60 Jahren (Basis 14C).

Sonnenaktivität und Klima

Sami K. Solanki, Ilya G. Usoskin, Bernd Kromer, Manfred Schüssler, Jürg Beer: Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature, 28 October 2004

Eine Abnahme der Aktivität wird in wenigen Jahrzehnten erwartet. Es ist offen, inwieweit diese Aktivitäten das Klima beeinflussen.

Sonnenfleckenhäufigkeit (10 Jahres-Mittelwerte seit der Eiszeit)

vergrößerter Ausschnitt

http

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Bestimmt die wechselnde Sonnenaktivität unser Klima? Verlauf der mittleren Temperatur der Atmosphäre und der Strahlungsleistung der Sonne: Zwischen beiden Größen gibt es nur bis etwa 1980 auffallende Parallelen.

http

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ww

.mps

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de/f

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Max

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Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertaini-ties for the main drivers of climate change.

http

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