Do Hedge Fund Managers have Stock-Picking Skills?

8/14/2019 Do Hedge Fund Managers have Stock-Picking Skills?

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hmplqc }bhrc rcvsrmbh}c vregrhi} "Lnckocrr| cp hj+ "8


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hk` ]ljjl "?66


10/42

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hk` }vcmlhj }lpshplek }mckhrle} }soilppc` pe QLM* osp kep hkhj|tc` `sc pe `hph hk` hkhj|}l}

mek}prhlkp}* ih| olh} pbc cql`ckmc+ Pbc}c }evbl}plmhpc` prh`c} rcxslrc h`qhkmc` nkewjc`gc hk`

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}vcmlhjl}p}* hk` ph cvcrp},+ Lk h Gre}}ihk hk` ]plgjlpt "8


11/42

qhjsc5 @e pbc| lkmerverhpc lkaerihplek arei evck ihrncp }bhrc rcvsrmbh}c}* lk}l`cr os|lkg

vhppcrk}* ve}p chrklkg} hkkeskmcickp `rlap* hmmrshj}* er s}c epbcr hjvbh vre`smlkg }prhpcglc}

`emsickpc` lk pbc hmh`cilm jlpcrhpsrc5 Lk pbl} }cmplek* L chilkc bew pbc qhjsc lkqc}per} lk i|

}hivjc ihnc lkqc}pickp `cml}lek}+

S}lkg pbc asjj }hivjc ea rcmeiick`hplek} "k9?


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Wbljc pbc lkqc}per} lk i| }hivjc s}c h wl`c rhkgc ea peej} lk pbclr lkqc}pickp `cml}lek}*

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ekj| ?# mlpc aesr er ierc+ L }vcmsjhpc pbhp h}}cp }vcmlalm l}}sc} "c+g+ h jlxsl`hplek prh`c* o| lp}

khpsrc* cmjs}lqcj| aems}c} ek phkglojc h}}cp sk`crqhjshplek,* }vcmlhjlthplek lk h }vcmlalm

hvvrehmb pe `crlqlkg vrlqhpc lkaerihplek* hk` rc}esrmc jlilphplek} hrc pbc vrlihr| rch}ek} wb|

vreac}}lekhj qhjsc lkqc}per} lk i| }hivjc aems} ek qcr| acw mrlpcrlh wbck ihnlkg lkqc}pickp

`cml}lek}+

Lk phojc 0 L vrc}ckp ierc `cphljc` `c}mrlvplqc }phpl}plm} ea pbc }cmsrlplc} rcmeiick`c`

}cgrcghpc` o| p|vc ea rcmeiick`hplek "jekg qcr}s} }berp,+ Lk vhkcj H L phosjhpc pbc }cmper

mjh}}lalmhplek4 Pbc rcmeiick`hplek} hrc wclgbpc` pewhr`} ihksahmpsrlkg alri}* rcvrc}ckplkg

=3+


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Lk pbl} }cmplek L chilkc pbc vcraerihkmc ea pbc rcmeiick`hplek} ih`c o| QLM

iciocr}+ QLM rcmeiick`hplek} p|vlmhjj| }phpc pbhp pbclr l`ch} }besj` oc mek}l`crc` jekg)

pcri lkqc}pickp} hk` kep }berp pcri prh`c}+ Pe mhvpsrc pbl} keplek ea jekg)pcri vcraerihkmc* L

vcraeri i| mhjmsjhplek} eqcr berltek} ea ekc)* pwe)* hk` pbrcc)|chr}+ L mhjmsjhpc hokerihj

rcpsrk} lk oepb cqckp)plic hk` mhjck`hr)plic ocmhs}c ea pbc mek}l`crhojc `cohpc lk pbc jlpcrhpsrc

hoesp pbc vrcacrhojc pcmbklxsc aer `cpcrilklkg jekg)rsk hokerihj vcraerihkmc+ H} Ohrocr hk`

J|ek "8


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iekpbj| `hph rhpbcr pbhk `hlj| `hph+ Pbc cqckp vcrle` rcpsrk `hph ocglk ek pbc alr}p ea pbc iekpb

aejjewlkg pbc `hpc pbc rcmeiick`hplek wh} ve}pc` pe pbc meiisklp|+ Aer chivjc* la hk l`ch l}

ve}pc` ek Dhkshr| 83pb* L }phrp mhjmsjhplkg iekpbj| rcpsrk} ek Acorshr| 8}p+ Ocmhs}c rcpsrk `hph

ocglk} hp pbc alr}p ea pbc iekpb aejjewlkg pbc `hpc ea pbc rcmeiick`hplek* wblmb jchqc} sv pe

pblrp| `h|} aer QLM iciocr} pe phnc ve}lplek}* lp l} ve}}lojc pbhp pbc hokerihj rcpsrk} vrc}ckpc`

sk`crc}plihpc pbc prsc rcpsrk} chrkc` o| QLM iciocr}* hk` ih| olh} i| pc}p} lk ahqer ea pbc

ksjj b|vepbc}l} pbhp ask` ihkhgcr} bhqc ke }pemn vlmnlkg }nljj}+

Aejjewlkg pbc icpbe`ejeg| ea ]vcl}} hk` Haajcmn)Grhqc} "8


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O+ Mbhrhmpcrl}plm)oh}c` Ockmbihrn)verpaejle OBH_

]hqer hk` Js "?66


16/42

lk i| }hivjc hrc }smmc}}asj }berp }cjjcr}+

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pbc pev 8# hk` oeppei 8# ea eo}crqhplek} pe mekprej aer cprcic espjlcr} "}cc algsrc} = hk` 0,+

Pbc rc}sjp} hrc }liljhr pe pbe}c vrc}ckpc` lk phojc 7 hk` 2 "rc}sjp} kep }bewk,+

M+ Mhjck`hr)Plic Verpaejle _cgrc}}lek}

Pe h}}c}} pbc reos}pkc}} ea pbc rc}sjp} arei pbc OBH_ hkhj|}c}* L hkhj|tc pbc `hph s}lkg

pbc mhjck`hr)plic verpaejle hvvrehmb h`qemhpc` o| Ilpmbcjj hk` ]phaaer` "?666, hk` Ahih

"8


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`l}mrcvhkm| }sggc}p} pbhp QLM iciocr} hrc ierc }smmc}}asj hp `cqcjevlkg vrlqhpc lkaerihplek

hiekg }ihjj alri} pbhk pbc| hrc lk pbc jhrgc mhv sklqcr}c+ Hkepbcr lkpcrvrcphplek l} pbhp pbc pbrcc

hk` aesr)ahmper ie`cj} hrc kep mhvpsrlkg pbc prsc sk`crj|lkg rl}n} ea pbc QLM iciocr

rcmeiick`hplek} hk` pbcrc l} hk h}}cp vrlmlkg ie`cj il}}vcmlalmhplekL mhkkep rsjc esp pbl}

ve}}loljlp|+ Bewcqcr* }lisjhplek cql`ckmc }sggc}p} pbhp pbrcc)ahmper mhjck`hr plic verpaejle

rcgrc}}lek} wlpb jhrgc }hivjc} "l+c+ k;8666, bhqc blgb vewcr pe rcdcmp pbc ksjj wbck lp l} ahj}c

"Hkg hk` Tbhkg "?660,,+

Vhkcj O lk phojc} < hk` 86 vrc}ckp} pbc rc}sjp} ea verpaejle} aeric` arei }berp

rcmeiick`hplek}+ Ichk iekpbj| hokerihj rcpsrk} hrc jhrgc hk` gckcrhjj| }phpl}plmhjj|

}lgklalmhkp lk hjj lk}phkmc} hk` hmre}} verpaejle wclgbplkg }mbcic}+ Pbl} cql`ckmc }sggc}p} pbhp

QLM iciocr} hrc }smmc}}asj }berp }cjjcr} hk` l} mekprhr| pe pbc rc}sjp} arei pbc OBH_ hkhj|}l}+

Bewcqcr* ocmhs}c pbc qhrles} icpbe`} vreql`c mekajlmplkg cql`ckmc* lp l} bhr` pe ihnc hk|

`calklplqc }phpcickp} rcghr`lkg pbc }berp)}cjjlkg holjlp| ea pbc lkqc}per} lk i| }hivjc+

@+ Vcraerihkmc Hkhj|}l} @l}ms}}lek

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}phpcickp+ Kcqcrpbcjc}}* i| eqcrhjj mekmjs}lek arei pbc cql`ckmc l} pbhp QLM iciocr} hvvchr pe

bhqc }pemn)vlmnlkg }nljj} aer os| rcmeiick`hplek} "}prekg cql`ckmc,* osp pbc cql`ckmc aer }berp)

}cjjlkg }nljj l} lkmekmjs}lqc+


18/42

}soilppc`4 ]ihjj ihrncp mhvlphjlthplek l`ch} hrc alkc* osp h} h gckcrhj gsl`cjlkc* hp jch}p

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ierc `laalmsjp pe l`ckpla| h meivcjjlkg l`ch wlpb $8oljjlek ea ihrncp mhvlphjlthplek* pbhk ekc wlpb

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hvvjlmhplek}+

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ea pbc wco}lpc+

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c}plihpc h }livjc ie`cj }smb pbhp pbcrc l} h jlkchr rcjhplek}blv ocpwcck hokerihj rcpsrk} hk` pbc

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wbcrc l} pbc hokerihj rcpsrk pe }pemn l hk` l} pbc QLM iciocr} rhplkg ea pbc

vhrplmsjhr }pemn l+ L rcgrc}} "`cvck`ckp qhrlhojc, ek pbc `cichkc` rhplkg "

,, "lk`cvck`ckp qhrlhojc, ocmhs}c lp }livjlalc} pbc lkpcrvrcphplek ea pbc c}plihpc`

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* "?,


19/42

OBH_} hk` ockmbihrn verpaejle OBH_} h} pbc `cvck`ckp qhrlhojc+ Pbc rc}sjp} }sggc}p pbhp QLM

iciocr} bhqc hk holjlp| pe l`ckpla| pbc oc}p jekg rcmeiick`hplek} ve}pc` pe pbc wco}lpc+

aer pbc mekprej)alri OBH_ rcgrc}}lek l} +8627 hk` aer pbc ockmbihrn)verpaejle OBH_

rcgrc}}lek +86 oepb pbc}c c}plihpc} hrc ve}lplqc hk` }phpl}plmhjj| }lgklalmhkp aer pbc ekc)|chr

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pbc cql`ckmc pbhp "l, QLM iciocr} hrc }nljjc` hp l`ckpla|lkg pbc oc}p hk` wer}p vcraerilkg }pemn}

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vcraericr} sv pe pbrcc)|chr vcrle`}+

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pe pbc mekprej alri OBH_ rcgrc}}lek aer jekg rcmeiick`hplek}* pbc QLM meiisklp|} holjlp| pe

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hrc kep }phpl}plmhjj| }lgklalmhkp }e L mhkkep rcdcmp pbc b|vepbc}l} pbhp QLM iciocr} mhkkep

l`ckpla| pbc oc}p hk` wer}p }berp mhk`l`hpc} eqcr pwe) hk` pbrcc)|chr berltek}+

Q+ Wb| hrc Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} ]bhrlkg L`ch}5Lk pbc mekpcp ea QLM* wblmb l} h qcksc cvjlmlpj| }cp sv }e ask` ihkhgcr} mhk }bhrc pbclr

vrlqhpc lkaerihplek* i| pc}p ea pbc b|vepbc}l} pbhp ke ask` ihkhgcr} bhqc }nljj lk`lrcmpj| pc}p}

pbc b|vepbc}l} pbhp pbcrc l} hk caalmlckp ask`} hjjemhplek ihrncp hiekg bc`gc ask`}+ ]pclk "?667,

xsc}plek} wb| hk hrolprhgcr wesj` bekc}pj| pcjj hkepbcr hoesp hk hpprhmplqc prh`lkg evverpsklp|

wbck iekc| ihkhgcr} hrc mekmcrkc` wlpb rcjhplqc vcraerihkmc+ Lk h ihrncp wlpb caalmlckp ask`}


20/42

verpaejle} hiekg h gresv ea hrolprhgc prh`c}+ Pbl} lk psrk* jewcr} pbc vreoholjlp| pbc| wljj

cvcrlckmc h jhrgc kcghplqc }bemn lk pbc }berp)rsk hk` bhqc pbclr ask`} wlpb`rhwk o| pbclr

lkqc}per}+

@ew hk` Gerpek "8


21/42

QLM iciocr} l} mekal`ckplhj hk` mhkkep oc `l}mje}c`* bewcqcr* L `e nkew QLM iciocr} hrc

hjie}p cmjs}lqcj| }ihjj pe il` }ltc bc`gc ask`} "$86 iljjlek pe $?36 iljjlek h}}cp} sk`cr

ihkhgcickp,+ Pbl} cql`ckmc jck`} vrcjlilkhr| cql`ckmc pe Grh|} b|vepbc}l}* bewcqcr* ierc

reos}p civlrlmhj wern kcc`} pe oc mek`smpc` lkpe er`cr pe `cmjhrc hk|pblkg `calklplqc wlpb

rc}vcmp pe lkaerihplek cmbhkgc pbcerlc} lk pbc mekpcp ea pbc lkqc}pickp ihkhgcickp lk`s}pr|+

Lp rcihlk} hk evck)ck`c` xsc}plek wb| QLM iciocr} wesj` }bhrc pbclr qhjshojc vrlqhpc

lkaerihplek+

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blgb oeen)pe)qhjsc }pemn}* osp lk}pch` aems} ek lkprlk}lm qhjsc "`l}meskpc` qhjsc ea hapcr)ph arcc

mh}b ajew} gckcrhpc` o| h os}lkc}}, hk` }lgkhjlkg ahmper} lk pbc ihrncp "c+g+ evck ihrncp

rcvsrmbh}c}* lk}l`cr os|lkg* hmplql}p hmplqlp|,+ L hj}e `cpcrilkc pbhp pbc qhjsc lkqc}per} L hkhj|tc

spljltc ekj| h acw peej} wbck ihnlkg pbclr lkqc}pickp `cml}lek}+

Pbc hkhj|}l} hk}wcrlkg xsc}plek "?, rcqchj} }eic lkpcrc}plkg rc}sjp}+ Pbc cql`ckmc }sggc}p}

pbhp pbc ask` ihkhgcr} lk i| }hivjc bhqc }pemn vlmnlkg }nljj} wbck }cjcmplkg os|

rcmeiick`hplek}+ Pbc hkhj|}l} ek }berp rcmeiick`hplek} l} lkmekmjs}lqc+ Pbc}c rc}sjp} }besj`

kep oc meivjcpcj| }srvrl}lkg4 Pbc rcmeiick`hplek} L hkhj|tc hrc wcjj rc}chrmbc` hk` rcxslrc`

me}pj| rc}esrmc} pe `cqcjev+ Lk cxsljlorlsi* }nljjc` lkqc}per} }besj` oc meivck}hpc` aer pbclr

caaerp} lk hmmsrhpcj| hkhj|tlkg alri} hk` `rlqlkg h}}cp} pe ask`hickphj qhjsc "Gre}}ihk hk`]plgjlpt "8


22/42

Lk }siihr|* pbl} }ps`| orlkg} lkpe xsc}plek pbc oreh`cr mekmcvp} ea ihrncp caalmlckm| lk pbc

h}}cp ihrncp} hk` pbc h}}cp ihkhgcr ihrncp> bewcqcr* h nc| xsc}plek rcihlk} mekmcrklkg pbc

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}ihjj verplek ea pbc pephj lkqc}pickp mhvlphj+ Ierceqcr* pbc cql`ckmc blkp} pbhp pbc lkqc}per} L

hkhj|tc aems} pbclr caaerp} lk }ihjj mhvlphjlthplek }pemn} hk` gckcrhjj| ljjlxsl` hrolprhgc

}lpshplek}+ Pbc}c h}}cp mjh}}c} ih| rcxslrc h``lplekhj rl}n ahmper} wblmb pbc h}}cp vrlmlkg pc}p} L

spljltc mhkkep hmmeskp aer+ Bewcqcr* pbc cmekeilm }lgklalmhkmc ea pbc jhrgc hjvbh velkp c}plihpc}

lk pbl} }ps`| hvvchr esp}ltc` rcjhplqc pe hk| rch}ekhojc meivck}hplek aer }|}pcihplm rl}n kep

hmmeskpc` aer wlpb pbc msrrckp h}}cp vrlmlkg ie`cj}+

Hvvck`l

Pbc aejjewlkg l`ch pe ge jekg ]skpcrrh Merverhplek wh} }soilppc` ek 1%??%?660 o| pbc

QLM s}cr rso|2=8 hk` rcmclqc` h mjso hqcrhgc rhplkg ea 3+2h gee` l`ch hmmer`lkg pe pbcmeiisklp|* osp kep }pcjjhr+ Pbc wrlpc)sv l} resgbj| rcvrc}ckphplqc ea pbc hqcrhgc l`ch }soil}}leko| QLM iciocr}+

]soil}}lek ocglk}4

]skpcrrh Merverhplek "]K__,* h ve}p)rcerg cxslp|* l} pbc jhrgc}p lk`cvck`ckpqhmhplek ewkcr}blv meivhk| lk pbc werj`* wlpb ierc pbhk =66*666 ewkcr ahiljlc} qhmhpleklkg hp


23/42

Mck`hkp* ]phrwee`* Ihrrlep* Bljpek hk` @l}kc|* hiekg epbcr}+ Pbc qhmhplek ewkcr}blv lk`s}pr|}besj` mekplksc pe ckde| }prekg ask`hickphj}* wlpb h ihrncp vckcprhplek rhpc ea hoesp 7#

`eic}plmhjj| hk` jc}} pbhk =# lk Csrevc* mesvjc` wlpb pbc ve}lplqc `ciegrhvblm} ea hglkg oho|oeeicr}+

Asrpbcrlkg ]skpcrrh} ieickpsi wljj oc pbc khplekwl`c hqhljholjlp| o| pbc pblr` xshrpcrea h gjeohj velkp})oh}c` ihrncplkg hk` }hjc} aerihp+ Msrrckpj| lk pbc S+]+* ms}peicr}vsrmbh}c qhmhplek ewkcr}blv sklp} pbresgb h `cc`c` lkpcrc}p lk h vrevcrp| aer h mcrphlk ksiocr eawccn} ea s}hgc vcr |chr hp }vcmlalm rc}erp}+ O| }cjjlkg ek h gjeohj velkp} oh}c` }|}pci* lk wblmbms}peicr} vsrmbh}c velkp} rhpbcr pbhk wccn}* ]skpcrrh wljj }lgklalmhkpj| ckbhkmc lp} qhjscvreve}lplek hk` lp} ihrncplkg mhvholjlp| pe pbc cl}plkg ms}peicr oh}c "pbc oc}p }esrmc ea kcw

}hjc}, hk` `cmrch}c ihrncplkg cvck}c}+ "Pbc Csrevchk sklp bh} evcrhpc` sk`cr h velkp} }|}pciaer ihk| |chr} hk` bh} bl}perlmhjj| }bewk ihrncplkg cvck}c} h} h vcrmckphgc ea }hjc} jewcrpbhk pbc S+]+ o| eqcr =66ov}+,

Epbcr ahmper} blgbjlgbp ]skpcrrh} }ejl` os}lkc}} mbhrhmpcrl}plm}+ Pbc}c lkmjs`c h }prekgrcmsrrlkg rcqcksc oh}c "hoesp =6# ea rcqcksc},* lkmjs`lkg vrevcrp| ihkhgcickp acc lkmeic"hoesp $=6ii,> rc}erp rckphj rcqcksc} "$88ii)$83ii,> lkpcrc}p lkmeic ek h $?=6ii.rcmclqhojc} verpaejle "$?1ii.,> hk` epbcr lkmeic* lkmjs`lkg hkkshj Mjso ]skpcrrh* prhqcj

hgckm| meiil}}lek} hk` epbcr acc} "$?6ii,+ Lk h``lplek* hoesp 06# ea pbc ohjhkmc ea rcqcksc}"meivrl}c` ea pbc }hjc ea QEL}* er qhmhplek ewkcr}blv lkpcrc}p},* meic} arei cl}plkgms}peicr}+ ]ejl` ohrrlcr} pe ckpr| cl}p lk pbc lkmrch}lkgj| lk}plpsplekhjltc` qhmhplek ewkcr}blvlk`s}pr|* lkmjs`lkg pbc }lgklalmhkp mhvlphj hk` }mhjc rcxslrc` aer isjplvjc vrevcrplc} hk` gjeohjevcrhplek}* h} wcjj h} }phpc rcgsjhper| bsr`jc} lk mrchplkg h gjeohj velkp}) oh}c` }|}pci "]K__jhoerc` aer pwe. |chr} pe livjcickp lp,+ ]ihjjcr* rcglekhj vjh|cr} hrc alk`lkg lp `laalmsjp pemeivcpc* vreql`lkg evverpsklplc} aer ]skpcrrh pe hmxslrc lkqckper|* verpaejle} hk` ms}peicr} hphpprhmplqc vrlmc} "pwe `chj} mje}c` lk pbc jh}p alqc iekpb},+ Hjpcrkhplqcj|* }lkmc ]K__ l} pbc

jhrgc}p lk`cvck`ckp evcrhper lk pbc lk`s}pr|* lp eaacr} h meivcjjlkg }prhpcglm h}}cp pe epbcr je`glkghk` jcl}src lk`s}pr| meivhklc}+

Ek pbc hmxsl}lplek arekp* ]K__ rcmckpj| hkkeskmc` pbc vsrmbh}c ea 866# ea h vrcilcrBhwhll rc}erp pbhp lp ihkhgc` hk` lk wblmb lp ewkc` h ?=# }phnc+ Pbl} vrevcrp| oee}p} hkhjrch`| livrc}}lqc hieskp ea rc}erp lkqckper| arei hoesp $166i hp rcphlj pe $2=3ii hp rcphlj*rcvrc}ckplkg hjie}p ?+3 |chr} ea lkqckper|+ Wbljc pbc meivhk| bh} }phpc` "wlpbesp }vcmlalm},pbhp pbl} hmxsl}lplek wljj oc hmmrcplqc* L c}plihpc pbhp lp wljj h`` hoesp $6+60 vcr }bhrc hkkshjj| ek

h asjj| phc` oh}l}+ Liverphkpj|* pbcrc l} ke lkpcgrhplek rl}n* }lkmc ]K__ hjrch`| ihkhgc} hk`}cjj} pbl} vrevcrp| h} vhrp ea lp} qhmhplek kcpwern+

Oh}c` ek h }pemn vrlmc ea $8?+06* h ihrncp mhvlphjlthplek ea $?02ii hk` kcp merverhpc`cop ea $8=3ii "cmjs`c} `cop }cmsrc` o| pbc ierpghgc rcmclqhojc verpaejle,* ]K__ bh} hkckpcrvrl}c qhjsc ea $=2=ii+ L c}plihpc COLP@H "i| `calklplek ea wblmb* mek}l}pckp wlpb pbcl a p p l o l ap l p p ` op ` o i p l oj , p o


24/42

COLP@H livjlc} h $87+36 }pemn vrlmc "oh}c` ek asjj| `ljspc` }bhrc} lkmjs`c` h rcmckpj| l}}sc`mekqcrp* whrrhkp} hk` evplek} hk` lkmjs`lkg merverhpc `cop rcjhpc` pe pbc Bhwhll hmxsl}lplek,+Pbc blgb ck` isjplvjc wesj` }sggc}p h $?2 }pemn vrlmc+ Oeen qhjsc vcr }bhrc ea hoesp $86"$7%}bhrc phkglojc oeen, hj}e vreql`c} }svverp aer pbc }pemn+ Lk hk| mh}c* pbc }pemn hvvchr}hpprhmplqcj| qhjsc` wlpb chrklkg} cvcmpc` pe grew erghklmhjj| hp ?3#. aer pbc kchr aspsrc+

Alkhjj|* L kepc pbhp ihkhgcickp bh} }prekg lkmckplqc} pe mrchpc }bhrcbej`cr qhjsc* wlpbpwe iljjlek evplek} }prsmn hp $83+?3 vcr }bhrc+ Aejjewlkg pbc rcjch}c ea X8 chrklkg}*ihkhgcickp asrpbcr vreqc` lp} meiilpickp hk` lkmckplqc}* wlpb pbc MCE hk` MAE oepbrcverplkg vsrmbh}c} ea pbc }pemn hp hvvrelihpcj| $88+66 vcr }bhrc+

_cacrckmc}

Hkg* Dhic} hk` ]bhedsk Tbhkg* ?660* Hk cqhjshplek ea pc}plkg vremc`src} aer jekg berltekcqckp }ps`lc}*_cqlcw ea Xshkplphplqc Alkhkmc hk` Hmmeskplkg ?=* ?38)?70+

H}kc}} Mjlaa* _eocrp Nrhlj* hk` Debk Jlcw* ?668* @e bc`gc ask`} bc`gc5 Oc mhsples} lk

hkhj|tlkg iekpbj| rcpsrk}*Desrkhj ea Verpaejle Ihkhgcickp?2* 1)8


25/42

Orewk* ]pcvbck hk` Dcrej` Whrkcr* 8


26/42

Cmekeilm _cqlcw 76* =


27/42

Phojc 84 _cmeiick`hplek ]siihr| @hphPbl} phojc rcverp} }siihr| }phpl}plm} aer pbc }hivjc ea lkqc}pickp rcmeiick`hplek} }soilppc` peQhjsclkqc}per}mjso+mei+ Pbc }hivjc lkmjs`c} hjj rcmeiick`hplek} }bhrc` wlpb pbc Qhjsclkqc}per}mjso+mei

meiisklp| arei pbc plic ea pbc meiisklp|} jhskmb ek Dhkshr| 8* ?666 pbresgb Dskc =6* ?662+ Vhkcj H rcverp}wbcrc h}}cp} hrc prh`c hk` pbc h}}cp p|vc rcmeiick`c`+ Vhkcj O rcverp} pbc ksiocr ea chmb jekg* }berp hk`jekg%}berp rcmeiick`hplek o| pbc p|vc ea h}}cp+ Vhkcj M rcverp} pbc ksiocr ea chmb jekg* }berp* hk` jekg%}berprcmeiick`hplek o| prh`lkg jemhplek+

Vhkcj H4 H}}cp p|vc hk` prh`lkg jemhplek "k9?


28/42

Phojc ?4 Arcxsckm| ea Mrlpcrlh Mlpc` h} Oh}l} aer _cmeiick`hplek}

Pbl} phojc }siihrltc} bew arcxsckpj| Qhjsclkqc}per}mjso+mei iciocr} mlpc` qhrles} mrlpcrlh h} pbc oh}l} aer pbclrrcmeiick`hplek}+ Chmb rcmeiick`hplek l} h}}lgkc` hp jch}p ekc rch}ek* hk` ihk| l`ch} rcmclqc isjplvjc mrlpcrlh+Mrlpcrlh wcrc lkmjs`c` la pbcrc wcrc hp jch}p 86 rcmeiick`hplek} pbhp mlpc` lp h} h sklxsc mrlpcrlek aer lkqc}plkg lk hvhrplmsjhr h}}cp+

K9?


29/42

@e Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} Bhqc ]pemn Vlmnlkg ]nljj}5 Vhgc ?


30/42

@e Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} Bhqc ]pemn Vlmnlkg ]nljj}5 Vhgc =6

Phojc 04 _cmeiick`hplek @c}mrlvplqc ]phpl}plm} aer Ihpmbc` ]hivjc

Pbl} phojc rcverp} }siihr| }phpl}plm} aer pbc ihpmbc` }hivjc ea Qhjsclkqc}per}mjso+mei rcmeiick`hplek}+ Pbc ihpmbc` }hivjc mek}l}p} ea hjj alri} pbhp bhqc pbc kcmc}}hr| `hph

aer pbc mekprej)alri OBH_ hk` ockmbihrn OBH_ hvvrehmbc}+ Vhkcj H hk` O chilkc pbc `l}prlosplek ea lkqc}pickp rcmeiick`hplek} s}lkg aesr)`lglp ]phk`hr` Lk`s}pr|Mjh}}lalmhplek "]LM, lk`s}prlc}+ Vhkcj M hk` @ }bew pbc mbhrhmpcrl}plm} ea lkqc}pickp l`ch} "jekg rcmeiick`hplek C%I* _EH* hk` _EH algsrc} hrc oh}c` ek h }hivjc ea


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Phojc 04 _cmeiick`hplek @c}mrlvplqc ]phpl}plm} "mekplksc`,

Vhkcj M4 Jekg rcmeiick`hplek ask`hickphj mbhrhmpcrl}plm} "k98672,

IC "iljjlek}, O%I C%I _EH _EC

Ichk =2?= +7


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@e Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} Bhqc ]pemn Vlmnlkg ]nljj}5 Vhgc =?

Phojc 34 Ihpmbc`)]hivjc Os|)hk`)Bej` Hokerihj _cpsrk} S}lkg pbc Mekprej)alri Pcmbklxsc

_cpsrk} pe }hivjc alri} hk` mekprej)alri} arei Dhkshr| 8* ?666 pe @cmciocr =8* ?662+ Mekprej)alri} hrc mbe}ck o| mbee}lkg pbc alri aer wblmb pbc }si ea pbcho}ejspc qhjsc ea pbc vcrmckphgc `laacrckmc lk }ltc hk` pbc ho}ejspc qhjsc ea pbc vcrmckphgc `laacrckmc lk oeen)pe)ihrncp rhple l} ilkliltc`+ Pbc ichk }hivjcalri rcpsrk} hk` ichk mekprej)alri rcpsrk} lk Vhkcj O hrc rcpsrk} pe h }berp ve}lplek lk pbc }cmsrlp|+ V)qhjsc} h}}emlhpc` wlpb h pwe)phljc` vhlrc` p)pc}p hrcvrc}ckpc`+ Pbc ihpmbc` }hivjc mek}l}p} ea hjj alri} pbhp bhqc pbc kcmc}}hr| `hph aer pbc mekprej)alri OBH_ hk` ockmbihrn OBH_ hvvrehmbc}+

Vhkcj H4 Jekg _cmeiick`hplek}

k Ichk }hivjcalri rcpsrk

Ichk mekprejalri rcpsrk

@laacrckmc"hokerihj rcpsrk,

V)qhjsc eavhlrc` p)pc}p

aer laacrckmcEkc)|chr 8672 87+


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@e Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} Bhqc ]pemn Vlmnlkg ]nljj}5 Vhgc ==

Phojc 14 Asjj)]hivjc Os|)hk`)Bej` Hokerihj _cpsrk} S}lkg pbc Mekprej)alri Pcmbklxsc

_cpsrk} pe }hivjc alri} hk` mekprej)alri} arei Dhkshr| 8* ?666 pe @cmciocr =8* ?662+ Mekprej)alri} hrc mbe}ck o| mbee}lkg pbc alri aer wblmb pbc }si ea pbcho}ejspc qhjsc ea pbc vcrmckphgc `laacrckmc lk }ltc hk` pbc ho}ejspc qhjsc ea pbc vcrmckphgc `laacrckmc lk oeen)pe)ihrncp rhple l} ilkliltc`+ Pbc ichk }hivjcalri rcpsrk} hk` ichk mekprej)alri rcpsrk} lk Vhkcj O hrc rcpsrk} pe h }berp ve}lplek lk pbc }cmsrlp|+ V)qhjsc} h}}emlhpc` wlpb h pwe)phljc` vhlrc` p)pc}p hrcvrc}ckpc`+ Pbc asjj }hivjc mek}l}p} ea hjj alri} pbhp bhqc pbc kcmc}}hr| `hph aer pbc mekprej)alri OBH_ hvvrehmb+


k Ichk }hivjcalri rcpsrk

Ichk mekprejalri rcpsrk

@laacrckmc"hokerihj rcpsrk,

V)qhjsc eavhlrc` p)pc}p

aer laacrckmc

Ekc)|chr 8?2< 82+0


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Phojc 74 Ihpmbc`)]hivjc Os|)hk`)Bej` Hokerihj _cpsrk} S}lkg Ockmbihrn)verpaejle}

_cpsrk} pe }hivjc alri} hk` ockmbihrn)verpaejle} arei Dhkshr| 8* ?666 pe @cmciocr =8* ?662+ Ockmbihrn)verpaejle hokerihj rcpsrk} hrc mhjmsjhpc` o|h}}lgklkg chmb }pemn pe ekc ea 8?3 ockmbihrn)verpaejle} oh}c` ek }ltc* oeen)pe)ihrncp rhple hk` ieickpsi mbhrhmpcrl}plm}* pbck }soprhmplkg pbc ockmbihrn)verpaejle rcpsrk arei pbc }hivjc alri rcpsrk+ Ichk }hivjc rcpsrk} hk` ichk ockmbihrn)verpaejle rcpsrk} lk vhkcj O rcvrc}ckp pbc rcpsrk pe h }berp ve}lplek lk pbc}cmsrlp| er verpaejle+ V)qhjsc} h}}emlhpc` wlpb h Vhlrc` p)pc}p hk` pbc J|ek* Ohrocr hk` P}hl "8


35/42

@e Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} bhqc ]pemn Vlmnlkg ]nljj}5 Vhgc =3

Phojc 24 Asjj)]hivjc Os|)hk`)Bej` Hokerihj _cpsrk} S}lkg Ockmbihrn)verpaejle}

_cpsrk} pe }hivjc alri} hk` ockmbihrn)verpaejle} arei Dhkshr| 8* ?666 pe @cmciocr =8* ?662+ Ockmbihrn)verpaejle hokerihj rcpsrk} hrc mhjmsjhpc` o|h}}lgklkg chmb }pemn pe ekc ea 8?3 ockmbihrn)verpaejle} oh}c` ek }ltc* oeen)pe)ihrncp rhple hk` ieickpsi mbhrhmpcrl}plm}* pbck }soprhmplkg pbc ockmbihrn)verpaejle rcpsrk arei pbc }hivjc alri rcpsrk+ Ichk }hivjc rcpsrk} hk` ichk ockmbihrn)verpaejle rcpsrk} lk vhkcj O rcvrc}ckp pbc rcpsrk pe h }berp ve}lplek lk pbc}cmsrlp| er verpaejle+ V)qhjsc} h}}emlhpc` wlpb h Vhlrc` p)pc}p hk` pbc J|ek* Ohrocr hk` P}hl "8


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Phojc


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Phojc 864 Asjj)]hivjc Mhjck`hr)Plic Verpaejle _cgrc}}lek}

Ekc)* pwe) hk` pbrcc)|chr mhjck`hr)plic rcgrc}}lek} s}lkg pbc ie`cj glqck o| * * * * ** hk` * * * * ** wbcrc * l} pbc rcpsrk lk iekpb p pe h mhjck`hr)plic verpaejle ea alri} mek}prsmpc`arei Qhjsclkqc}permjso+mei rcmeiick`hplek}+ Pbc plic vcrle` hkhj|tc` rsk} arei Dhkshr| 8* ?666 pe @cmciocr =8* ?662+ *l} pbc rcpsrk ek pbc qhjsc)wclgbpc` ihrncp verpaejle+ * l} pbc ekc)iekpb P)oljj rhpc+ l} pbc `laacrckmc lk pbc rcpsrk} ea pbc verpaejle} ea }ihjj }pemn} hk` olg }pemn}+ l} pbc`laacrckmc lk pbc rcpsrk} ea pbc verpaejle} ea blgb oeen)pe)ihrncp }pemn} hk` jew oeen)pe)ihrncp }pemn}+ l} pbc `laacrckmc lk pbc rcpsrk ea pbc hqcrhgc eaverpaejle} ea }ihjj hk` olg vh}p wlkkcr} hk` pbc hqcrhgc ea verpaejle} ea }ihjj hk` olg vh}p je}cr}+ Pbc ahmper} s}c` lk pbc rcgrc}}lek} hrc eophlkc` arei NckArckmb} wco}lpc+ Pbc }hivjc s}c` lk pbc}c rcgrc}}lek} mek}l}p} ea 8206 jekg rcmeiick`hplek} er ?60 }berp rcmeiick`hplek}+ P)}phpl}plm} hrc lk vhrckpbc}c}+Pbc asjj }hivjc mek}l}p} ea hjj alri} pbhp bhqc pbc kcmc}}hr| `hph aer pbc mhjck`hr)plic verpaejle rcgrc}}lek}+

Cxshj)Wclgbpc` Verpaejle} Qhjsc)Wclgbpc` Verpaejle}

Ekc)|chr Pwe)|chr Pbrcc)|chr Ekc)|chr Pwe)|chr Pbrcc)|chr


Meivesk`c` Pbrcc)Ahmper ie`cj hjvbh 6+2=# 6+78# 6+18# 6+38# 6+32# 6+1?#"?+


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Phojc 884 Vrc`lmplkg Ihpmbc`)]hivjc Hokerihj _cpsrk} wlpb QLM _hplkg}

Pbc rcgrc}}lek ie`cj l} glqck o| * wbcrc l} pbc hokerihj rcpsrk pe }pemn l hk` l} pbcQhjsclkqc}per}mjso+mei iciocr} rhplkg ea h vhrplmsjhr }pemn l+ * * hk` hrc }hivjc c}plihpc} aer pbc prsc vhrhicpcr}+ Qhjsclkqc}permjso+mei ekj|rcverp} h rhplkg la alqc er ierc iciocr} rhpc pbc vhrplmsjhr rcmeiick`hplek+ Pbc }hivjc} s}c` lk pbc}c rcgrc}}lek} hrc pbc }hic ekc)* pwe)* hk` pbrcc)|chr}hivjc} s}c` lk pbc mekprej)alri hk` ockmbihrn)verpaejle OBH_ hvvrehmbc}* wblmb hj}e bhqc h rhplkg+ P)}phpl}plm} hrc lk vhrckpbc}c}+

Mekprej Alri OBH_ Ockmbihrn Verpaejle OBH_

Ekc)|chr Pwe)|chr Pbrcc)|chr Ekc)|chr Pwe)|chr Pbrcc)|chr

Vhkcj H4 Jekg rcmeiick`hplek}

+6103 +882= +86?6 6+6236 +8173 +8362"?+=1, "?+??, "8+=1, "0+67, "=+22, "?+1


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@e Bc`gc Ask` Ihkhgcr} bhqc ]pemn Vlmnlkg ]nljj}5 Vhgc =

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