Dr. Gus KoehlerDr. Gus Koehler• Dr. Gus Koehler (Principal Consultant) Time StructuresDr. Gus Koehler (Principal Consultant) Time Structures• Adjunct Faculty (Regional and Economic Development) Adjunct Faculty (Regional and Economic Development)

at the University of Southern California. at the University of Southern California. • Time Structures Focuses on Temporal (Time) Issues Time Structures Focuses on Temporal (Time) Issues

Associated with Business and Policy Development and Associated with Business and Policy Development and Implementation. Implementation.

• Consulting Areas:Consulting Areas:– Planning for Transport Systems to the European UnionPlanning for Transport Systems to the European Union– Computer Public Policy Simulations to RANDComputer Public Policy Simulations to RAND– California Legislature’s Joint Committee for Preparing California Legislature’s Joint Committee for Preparing

California for the 21st Century. California for the 21st Century. – NSF grant to Develop a Computer Simulation on the Timing of NSF grant to Develop a Computer Simulation on the Timing of

Public Policy Interventions and the Affects on Industry Public Policy Interventions and the Affects on Industry Clusters.Clusters.

CaliforniaCalifornia• California Redevelopment Association provides California Redevelopment Association provides

policy research and legislative advocacy support.policy research and legislative advocacy support.• Former Director of Community Colleges Economic Former Director of Community Colleges Economic

Development ProgramDevelopment Program– led a successful statewide legislative effort to led a successful statewide legislative effort to

reauthorize the program, receiving unanimous approval reauthorize the program, receiving unanimous approval from both Houses and the Governor. from both Houses and the Governor.

– Created ten initiatives to directly address workforce and Created ten initiatives to directly address workforce and economic development training concerns, the economic development training concerns, the transferring of technology to business, business transferring of technology to business, business development services, and international trade. development services, and international trade.

– Developed and Implemented a performance reporting Developed and Implemented a performance reporting system, including ROI and C/B analysis of outcomes.system, including ROI and C/B analysis of outcomes.

ResearchResearch• Senior Policy Analyst with the California Research Senior Policy Analyst with the California Research

BureauBureau• Conducted Policy Research for the California State Conducted Policy Research for the California State

LegislatureLegislature• The Governor and other elected officials.The Governor and other elected officials.• His research responsibilities included identifying His research responsibilities included identifying

and evaluating state economic development issues and evaluating state economic development issues and recommending strategies to address them.and recommending strategies to address them.

• 27 years in government service in such as areas 27 years in government service in such as areas as disaster response and management, consumer as disaster response and management, consumer protection, and health services. protection, and health services.

Technical Advisor and Technical Advisor and AuthorAuthor• Provided Technical AdviceProvided Technical Advice

– California Economic Development Strategy Panel, California Economic Development Strategy Panel, – Senate Select Committee on Economic Development Senate Select Committee on Economic Development – California Council on Science and TechnologyCalifornia Council on Science and Technology– The Workforce Investment Board’s Small Business Advisory The Workforce Investment Board’s Small Business Advisory

CommitteeCommittee– The Legislative Internet CaucusThe Legislative Internet Caucus– The Assembly Standing Committee on Jobs, Economic The Assembly Standing Committee on Jobs, Economic

Development and the EconomyDevelopment and the Economy– Member of the Council of Economic Advisors to the Workforce Member of the Council of Economic Advisors to the Workforce

Investment Board. Investment Board. • Prepared public policy reports onPrepared public policy reports on

– Biotechnology, California’s foreign trade policy, bio-industry, Biotechnology, California’s foreign trade policy, bio-industry, small manufacturing, business networks, and California small manufacturing, business networks, and California economic development. economic development.

• Received a Small Business Administration Vision 2000 award Received a Small Business Administration Vision 2000 award for his research on early-stage venture capital investment. for his research on early-stage venture capital investment.

• Written over 100 Academic Articles and StudiesWritten over 100 Academic Articles and Studies• Presented Papers and Speeches to various government, Presented Papers and Speeches to various government,

academic and private sector organizations.academic and private sector organizations.• Ph.D. in Political Science and Sociology, University of Ph.D. in Political Science and Sociology, University of

California at Davis.California at Davis.

Connections Make All The Connections Make All The DifferenceDifference

Gus KoehlerGus KoehlerTime StructuresTime Structures

Sacramento, CASacramento, CA916-564-8683916-564-8683

rhythm3@earthlink.netrhythm3@earthlink.net

The Problem:The Problem:• A disconnect between the velocity of government A disconnect between the velocity of government

and its capacity to envision and manage complex and its capacity to envision and manage complex regulatory and programmatic interventions, and regulatory and programmatic interventions, and the velocity of the regulated sector, producing the velocity of the regulated sector, producing unexpected future outcomes. unexpected future outcomes.

The Solution:The Solution:• Ideally, adaptive Governance permits Ideally, adaptive Governance permits

government to pattern an intervention to match government to pattern an intervention to match the velocity of a regulated sector thereby the velocity of a regulated sector thereby achieving a desired future goal.achieving a desired future goal.

Global Competition Factors Affecting Firms and Global Competition Factors Affecting Firms and JobsJobs

• Trained, productive laborTrained, productive labor• Faster technology churnFaster technology churn• Rapid product Rapid product

developmentdevelopment• Price and quality Price and quality

competitioncompetition• Protection or invasion of Protection or invasion of

marketsmarkets• Information technologyInformation technology• Flexible strategiesFlexible strategies• Global alliances and Global alliances and

networksnetworks

• Global availability of talentGlobal availability of talent• Increased innovation Increased innovation

globallyglobally• Converging competitive Converging competitive

advantage of high-tech advantage of high-tech regionsregions

• Global adoption of Global adoption of Information and Information and Communications Communications technologytechnology

• Regional independence Regional independence conditioned multinational conditioned multinational corporations, new forms of corporations, new forms of business networking and business networking and associated global associated global distribution systems.distribution systems.

Firms: Regions:

California’s “Six-Surge” Economy

gold

Civil War

WWI

Depression

1860

1900

1930

1950

WWII

1970

Vietnam

Warend

ColdWarend

Bubbleburst2000

1990

2000

railroads agriculture

Hollywoodoil

defense

micro-electroni

cspc

Internet

Velocity of Government Policy TimeVelocity of Government Policy Time

• 6 months to 2 years for an issue to become politically 6 months to 2 years for an issue to become politically visiblevisible

• 10-20 minutes to advocate concept to Legislator or 10-20 minutes to advocate concept to Legislator or staffstaff

• 1-2 years to complete legislative process1-2 years to complete legislative process

• Urgency bill 9 monthsUrgency bill 9 months

• 10 days to 6 months for emergency regulations10 days to 6 months for emergency regulations

• 1-2 years for non-emergency regulations1-2 years for non-emergency regulations

• 1-2 years to design and staff or seriously change 1-2 years to design and staff or seriously change existing government programsexisting government programs

• 6 months to 1 year to make and refine policy 6 months to 1 year to make and refine policy initiatives based on field experienceinitiatives based on field experience

• Litigation of various time (years)Litigation of various time (years)

New Economy Product Cycle and Government Regulatgory Activity Compared

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

Months

New EconomyProduct Cycle

GovernmentStatute andRegulatoryImplementationBuilding Permitand Inspections

Government vs. New Economy Growth and Time Frames

Future

Appears to be:

Timing of Actions is:

Change is: Growth is:

Government Predictable Linear Clock: Budget cycle Regulatory

Bounded by Legal Process

Hierarchical or "Tree-Like"

New Economy

Uncertain or Unpredict-able

Cyclical (product) Punctuated (Stock Market), Etc.

Emergent, Emotional, Spontaneous, Orderly, or?

Complex and Multi- Dimensional or "Rhizomic"

Nodes, Hubs, And LinksNodes, Hubs, And Links

Node: a point—person at aparty for example—having aboutThe same number of linksto another (road map)

Hub: a point with multiplelinks to many nodes (airporthub).

A

BC

DE

F

A

F

Links: The higher the ConnectivityThe less the distance, the faster theDispersion of information, ideas, products

Government Nodes and Government Nodes and LinksLinks

State Agency

Dept. 1 Dept.2 Dept. 3

Division a Division b Division c

Branch 1

Branch 2

Division a Division b Division c Division d

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3Section 1

Local

Government HubGovernment Hub

CCST

Unions

Biotech

Nano

SBDCTrade

Multi-M

Manufacturing

Agency

TTCA

CalEdChamber

CoordinationUnit

Percolation And LinksPercolation And Links

50% Connectivity makes Networks grow like a Forest fire.Think: ideas, information, and products

SE Bakersfield: Enterprise SE Bakersfield: Enterprise ZoneZone

Regional LevelWorkplaceLearning

JDIF Biotech MultimediaIDRC

InternationalTrade

Health

ContractEd.

Environ.Tech

Applied Comp.Tech

SBDCAdv. Trans.

Tech..

TTCA, CCCO, EDDRegional Collabs.

ManufacturingExcellence Prog.

ED>Net AdvisoryCommittee

ED>Net

Dept. of Education

Technology, Trade and Commerce

EmploymentDevelopment Dept.

ChancellorsOffice

Los RiosState Level

MEP/Coordination

Local Community

Workers/BusinessesOf An Industry Cluster

RegionalTech. AllianceTrade

OfficesLoan

ProgramsLabor Union

BusinessAssoc.

RegionalCollab.

Local Econ. Dev. Comm.

EDD-One Stop

Vocational Education

WorkforceInvestment Board Board

Foundations

CCAOE

ETP

Connections: SummaryConnections: Summary

• Government is a Government is a hierarchyhierarchy of of nodesnodes. It is rigid, . It is rigid, suitable for mass productionsuitable for mass production

• Economic Development services are resources, Economic Development services are resources, ideas and information nodes connected by ideas and information nodes connected by hubs.hubs. They are They are rhizomicrhizomic like industry like industry

• New industry clusters are new connections and New industry clusters are new connections and rapidly disseminated information, resources, rapidly disseminated information, resources, products (percolating)products (percolating)

• Interlocking policy and management networks Interlocking policy and management networks create hubs that keep the network productive and create hubs that keep the network productive and reduces vulnerability to failure particularly if reduces vulnerability to failure particularly if percolationpercolation is encouraged. is encouraged.