ESTABLISH RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISH PASSAGE SURVIVAL AND

TURBINE OPERATING EFFICIENCY

NORMANDEAU ASSOCIATES

HTI, Inc.

and

J. R. Skalski

(Proposal No. 35023)

Proposal No. 35023

PROPOSAL BACKGROUND

Turbine operations constrained to within ±1% peak efficiency

Presently, assumption is highest survival occurs at peak efficiency; unclear whether it refers to direct or indirect effects or both

Recent data, though limited, do not show correlation; in fact, highest survival coincided with turbines operating beyond the peak efficiency (e.g., Wanapum, Lower Granite, and McNary)

Analysis of historic data showed no statistical correlation (Skalski et al. 2002)

Proposal No. 35023

PROPOSAL BACKGROUND, continued

Survival may differ between turbines at a site; multi turbine passage studies lacking at most dams, making it difficult to assume all turbines are “born alike”

Easier to design turbines per se but difficult to quantify/verify improvements in fish survival (e.g., Rocky Reach, Bonneville, etc.); may be important factor in turbine rehabilitation

Aging turbines prime target for rehabilitation at several dams, fish survival information needed

Proposal No. 35023

ROCKY REACH

Survival differences between turbines, depth, and power production at a site

0.840

0.860

0.880

0.900

0.920

0.940

0.960

0.980

1.000

60 MW 80 MW 100 MW

Unit 5 Unit 6Unit 5, 30 ft Unit 6, 30 ft

Proposal No. 35023

WANPAUM

Highest survival at turbine operating beyond peak efficiency

0.840

0.860

0.880

0.900

0.920

0.940

0.960

0.980

1.000

9,000 cfs 11,000 cfs 15,000 cfs 17,000 cfs

Turbine Efficiency Fish Survival 10 ftFish Survival 30 ft

Proposal No. 35023

MCNARY

Same results (preliminary) as at Wanapum: highest survival at turbine operating beyond peak efficiency (11,200 cfs)

0.840

0.860

0.880

0.900

0.920

0.940

0.960

0.980

1.000

8,000 cfs 11,200 cfs 14,000 cfs 16,400 cfs

Proposal No. 35023

PROPOSAL OBJECTIVES

Use multiple tagging techniques for isolating immediate and long-term passage effects (only one data point at Lower Granite)– Estimate direct effects using balloon tags at four turbines,

each operating at discrete efficiencies (four);

– Estimate post-passage effects using acoustically tagged fish at the same conditions

PIT tagged fish can also be simultaneously released if NMFS/BPA deem necessary and useful

Proposal No. 35023

STUDY DESIGN

Use hatchery-reared smolts A 4 x 4 factorial design (16 independent survival

estimates); four turbines, each at four operating efficiencies/discharges

All releases to be made with intake screens in place Release 120 fish per day Fish to be released at discrete points within turbines, fish

to pass between stay vanes and wicket gates Data to be analyzed daily (for balloon tagged fish) for

adjustments in sample size

Proposal No. 35023

STUDY DESIGN (ACOUSTIC TAGS)

Identical components as for balloon tag study except for use of acoustic tags

Release 30 dead tagged smolts below the dam to verify if they float down to the detection arrays

Acoustic tagged fish to be released concurrently with balloon tagged fish

Post-passage survival to be determined through fish detection arrays 10 - 15 miles downstream of McNary Dam or at John Day

Detections indicative of alive fish Similar survival study underway for Chelan Co. PUD

(Rocky Reach)

Proposal No. 35023

SAMPLE SIZE

200 fish for each treatment (3,200 fish) and 100 controls (1,600 fish) to provide survival estimates within ±3%, 90% of the time

Proposed sample size based on previous investigations (e.g., Rocky Reach, Rock Island, Wanapum, Bonneville, Lower Granite)

Proposal No. 35023

SELECTION OF MCNARY DAM

Some baseline survival data exist Potential for turbine rehabilitation/replacement Identified potential problems due to predation and water

temperature If PIT tagged fish are also released, may incorporate that

information for more comprehensive assessment

Proposal No. 35023

EVALUATION

Recaptured fish location (GPS as in Bonneville study, Normandeau Associates et al. 2001)

Test of assumptions Examine for injury/mortality, assign probable causes Survival data to be statistically analyzed for establishing

operating efficiency and fish survival relationship separately for each turbine

All statistical analyses to be performed by Dr. John Skalski

Estimation of in-river post passage survival (acoustic tracking) by HTI

Proposal No. 35023

EXPECTED RESULTS

Quantification of direct and indirect effects Suggestion for operational guidelines to maximize fish

survival Tailrace distribution of entrained fish for possible

correlation with predator preferred habitat

Proposal No. 35023

REPORTING

Daily interactions with BPA and other designated personnel

Issue draft report for comments within 120 days of completing field work

Incorporate comments and finalize reports